PCA

Can anyone offer advice/recommendation re company/agents to help sell business in Phuket? Business in question is night club in Patong. Have tried a local farang but he is a total waste of time - doesn't return calls etc etc.

which one is it?

Believe it's historic - all ex GBP territories when British Empire was largest. GBP is also quoted this way. 1 GBP is worth a number higher than 1 for any other currency.

except for the Maltese Lira

When stocks go up it still is not profit. For that you need to sell. And then what? Buy stock again?

Stock markets tend to drop faster then they go up. So you can sit and watch it grow for a few years and see it disappear in a few days.

It is not for everyone.

You sell a small percentage every year. If you start with enough, you don't need to buy anything else, except you might need to rebalance. For example if you want to have 25 percent in China stocks and the value changes so that you have 50 percent, then you would sell half and reinvest in something else.

The only time in modern history that stocks have dropped like you imply they always do was in 1929.

I beg to differ

me too

Any of you market traders (primarily USA markets) thinking it's time to start to think about upside potential in specialty mortgage finance companies? The values are starting to look really compelling if you have an appetite for risk (and outsized gains). Specifically I'm thinking about the private mortgage insurers and some land title companies. Many like MBIA, PMI, TMA, LFG are trading way below book. Sure, there is a reason for this but I think many are way oversold and RE markets will not be dead forever. Markets are already starting to stabilize somewhat (Countrywide expects to be profitable next quarter). One could play these with either call or put options but maybe a good play is in the money puts for first and second quarter of next year. When exercised, pick-up some stocks cheap or earn 15-20% on the premium and div. income till expiration?

PMI and LFG look hot. Will post you when there is a good trade. From MBI and TMA I would keep my fingers away.

why should he get exercised, this is the very exception to happen. If prices move up too fast he simply writes a higher strike. Beyond that after playing GE for a few years he knows the anatomy of the stock and most likely will not blindly doing always the same. Its an excellent and save way to generate income but you need to tie up quite a large amount of money.

Well, if the option expires in the money then it *will* be exercised.

Prior to the expiry , if he wants to roll it to a higher strike then he has to buy back the first one - and then you are getting into the realms of rebalancing your gamma. Another example:

Price today = $100

Write a 3 month $105 call, receive $4

Price tomorrow: 110

Write a 3 month $115 call, receive $4

AND buy back the $105 call which is now in the money with a price around $11

Price on expiry date = $100 again

Net Net: Receive $8 in option premium, pay $11 for the 105 call

No gain or loss on the share. Result: not so good; it would have been better to have kept the short 105 call.

This is the problem of being short volatility (short gamma). When you have a short option position and the underlying share exhibits a lot of volatility you can have substantial losses. Short option sellers want low volatility. On the other hand people who own options (long volatility/gamma) are hoping for an increase in volatility.

the way you illustrated it is quite extreme and what short option sellers want is high volatility, not low. Beyond that he doesnt have to buy back the initially sold calls when he adds shorts of another strike. He is hedged in the stock and doesnt sell naked. A delicate strategy for stocks like GE but a shot in the pocket for stocks like GOOG or AAPL.

This can be made much more profitable and complex by creating a fence around the stock price playing volatility and time decay though I guess thats not really interesting to discuss it here.

Selling a higher strike, while already short the lower strike against the long position in the shares just makes you naked short the options, which not only is very risky but would also require margin to be posted, and would no longer be a cover call position. It would be a coverd call plus a short call. And you would still have downside risk on the shares.

The last thing option sellers want is high volatility. I think you are talking about implied volatility - where the higher the IV the bigger is the option premium taken in. I am talking about the problem when actual vol is greater than implied vol - this is the ruin of short option positions.

yeah was a misunderstanding, options sellers want high volatility when they enter and not when they hold.

I doubt that this guy playing GE is playing option sizes that his whole stock position is tied in. Therefore he will probably plan what impact certain scenarios will have on his account. Anyway there are so many things to consider or calculate that will not meet much interest to be discussed here.

why should he get exercised, this is the very exception to happen. If prices move up too fast he simply writes a higher strike. Beyond that after playing GE for a few years he knows the anatomy of the stock and most likely will not blindly doing always the same. Its an excellent and save way to generate income but you need to tie up quite a large amount of money.

Well, if the option expires in the money then it *will* be exercised.

Prior to the expiry , if he wants to roll it to a higher strike then he has to buy back the first one - and then you are getting into the realms of rebalancing your gamma. Another example:

Price today = $100

Write a 3 month $105 call, receive $4

Price tomorrow: 110

Write a 3 month $115 call, receive $4

AND buy back the $105 call which is now in the money with a price around $11

Price on expiry date = $100 again

Net Net: Receive $8 in option premium, pay $11 for the 105 call

No gain or loss on the share. Result: not so good; it would have been better to have kept the short 105 call.

This is the problem of being short volatility (short gamma). When you have a short option position and the underlying share exhibits a lot of volatility you can have substantial losses. Short option sellers want low volatility. On the other hand people who own options (long volatility/gamma) are hoping for an increase in volatility.

the way you illustrated it is quite extreme and what short option sellers want is high volatility, not low. Beyond that he doesnt have to buy back the initially sold calls when he adds shorts of another strike. He is hedged in the stock and doesnt sell naked. A delicate strategy for stocks like GE but a shot in the pocket for stocks like GOOG or AAPL.

This can be made much more profitable and complex by creating a fence around the stock price playing volatility and time decay though I guess thats not really interesting to discuss it here.

why should he get exercised, this is the very exception to happen. If prices move up too fast he simply writes a higher strike. Beyond that after playing GE for a few years he knows the anatomy of the stock and most likely will not blindly doing always the same. Its an excellent and save way to generate income but you need to tie up quite a large amount of money.

What amazes me is how sentiment changes so drastically within the space of only

twenty-four hours? Take the DJ rally in the U.S. on Tuesday night when surely

they knew that there was bad news coming out the day after about the slowing

real estate market in the U.S. which of course last night ( Wednesday ) translated

to reasonable drop again in prices.

Am I correct the a lot of these movements are by professional fund managers who

are under the constant pressure of trying to make money from moving markets

because otherwise why wouldn't people just sit on the sidelines even for just a few

days if they know things are so uncertain or even more so if they know there's

going to be a release of bad news ?

what you have seen in the last 2 days is action of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team). This is a trader group recruited from the FED and Government. Before they were physically operating on the floor and in the trading desks at the exchange and now they do it from outside the US via computer as their action is critizised heavily. Since years they are keeping the markets artificially high due to this interference. Especially now they will do everything in their power to avoid a crash as what they definitely cannot afford at this moment is a collopsing dollar and a bearish stock market at the same time.

SET is just a ping pong ball though underpriced. If we make the way up in the US market and break all time highs again the thai market will rapidly outperform.

my apologies, i forgot one........

whats that - your equity curve after shorting the markets for 3 months?

just a joke but unclear what you wanna say therewith.

Using broadband since years and rarely had problems with IBs TWS in Thailand.

May I ask wher you are and which ISP / service / package you use and whether you rely on "connection green light" being permanently on

Phuket, Island Technology broadband. Trading 4 different platforms and all are working.

Problems with IB seem to be due to [data] packet loss. TWS is programmed to drop the connection at a certain level of packet loss due to danger of lost orders. Unfortunately Thai ISP's seem to discard packets if their fixed bandwidth looks to be overloaded. Things are better than they were a couple of years ago when it was completely unuseable until IB dumbed downn the settings in recognition of poor internet connections.

Right now I have to reset the modem 1 or 2 times a day due (I assume) to TRUE bouncing evrrybody off in the hope that not all will reconnect. I stopped trading futures long ago because of this. Another thing you might check is whether the problem is caused by a hyperthreading/Java conflict - I was finding the data flow just stopped for a few minutres at a time - solution was to diable hyperthreading in the bios.

Using broadband since years and rarely had problems with IBs TWS in Thailand.

I've been using Vanguard online brokers for stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, calls & puts, etc traded in the US. Generally good service, but for security reasons you can't access your accounts from a public computer, only from a personal computer that their computer "recognizes." That's not a problem, in fact it's somewhat reassuring.

Since last week, however, there's a been a problem getting access to accounts even from my home computer. When I called them they said it was a computer problem affecting everyone trying to log on from outside the US, they were working on it and it would be solved sometime Friday. It seemed to be resolved briefly, but once again account access is not available. So I was exploring the possibility of moving to another broker.

I contacted Fidelity about opening accounts there and transferring my holdings from Vanguard, but they replied that they won't do it if you're not physically present in the US.

Anyone have positive experiences with online brokers, either based in the US or at least able to trade in things listed on US exchanges?

I think the Patriot Act made it more difficult to deal with investments from overseas. I use a US account address to avoid some of the hassles that arose when I used an address outside the US, although Vanguard has allowed me to use my Thai address to receive duplicates of statements. In many respects Vanguard has been quite good, but if I can't easily access accounts for trading or shifting funds to/from my bank, it makes things pretty difficult.

Any suggestions or comments on experiences you've had managing your investments from Thailand would be appreciated.

Interactive Brokers is the best for your needs. Unbeatable low fees, good trading platform and convenient to handle. Not to forget the advantage that you can hold the account in other currencies.

E-Trade was always expensive though I dont know about what they are offering now.

i also try to trade the SET, but far from being professional.

I agree with those say that it is difficult, and that the brokerages arent much a help.

I try to trade breakouts in single stocks. However, many time the execution is too slow, and easy to miss a fast move...and since the spread around 1%, i dont find wise to chase them, for the risk at failing.

I find it annoying also, then there isnt any stop-loss, and and cant preset a buy for certain price. not to mention short selling. I talking about internet trading account( i have with KImeng).

On the other side, SET (stocks) seems to have great moves, so the rewards can be great...definately above the bank deposit returns

Analyse and trade from the weekly charts and take breakouts from this time frame. Spread, fills and order types play a minor role therewith and you are not tempted to overtrade. Consumes less time and work, rest is proper MM.

Thanks for the replys

Yes you guys are right i know nothing about investing, i just thought i would post on here and see what recomendations i would get.

I have been reading some investment websites and i am considering putting some money in to a tracker and maybe a few managed funds. I need to read more for sure but it seems there is an awful lot of information out there it is just a case of finding time to read and digest it.

Anyhow for sure i will leave 40k in a high interest account and the other 40k i will look to invest in trackers or managed funds and try to spread it about in different markets.

You dont need to read anything about investment websites as they all claim to be the best. Dont get yourself confused and let an IFA help you. About managed funds the guys who know what they are doing and make good returns in trading change their seats faster than you might think and end up either with Goldman Sachs or doing their own thing (in both cases they wont work with your kind of money). I know quite a few failed private traders who are trading managed funds for clients now in financial institutions, bearing in mind that they are/were not able to trade profitable on their own. Anyway dont read much or at least dont believe anyone but yourself and an Independent Financial Advisors who can consult you along with your aimed returns and clearing risk and reward profiles accurately otherwise you might face a lot of emotional unrest beside losing some dosh.

150,000 Sterling held in a normal bank account,high interest account offshore.

withdrawl 12 times a year ( monthly )

what would be a GENERAL return ?

Have just been asked the question and to be fair cant' give an indicative answer.

Anyone.?

P.S based on someone leaving the uk and moving here with the cash.

Please no other stuff , about do this and do that . This was a question asked to me and really just wasnt sure what the interest would be .

Cheers

Interest rates on saving accounts are negotiable and with 150k Sterling you should not get lower than 7% a year. But if you think you will pay in that amount and start withdrawing after a month you will most likely not get this rate plus you are taking money from your investment as your interest is not earned yet. Leave the money there untouched for a year and the whole thing looks entirely different. Otherwise you will have to make the calculation with less than 150k, you do the math.

Anyone heard of Colony Invest? We've had 3 different people (extended family) come and tell us how great it is and how much money they're making (without actually asking us to join though). Can't find any info on it but there seems to be a lot of sites in Thai that mention it. Looks a bit like a pyramid scheme to me...I've seen someone's account with them and they have made a huge amount of profit investing baht and getting US dollar returns. Just wondering if anyone has heard of them?

hundreds of links and no track records or investment details = Scam

Well, with the fed rate cut yesterday the writing is on the wall. I have procrastinated becasue interest rates WERE headed up (as they SHOULD have) and... I am American therefore, when I am home use USD.

I looked at RBS offshore, had good rates on Sterling but I also saw annual account fees and 2.75% on debit card withdrawl and about us30 on wire transfs.

Some time ago someone was talking about a dollar bear fund that was basically a basket of Euro currencies - OXC? OCX ... I can't find the symbol-name.

What about silver? I think gold is way overbought and has potental to plummet.

Not at all big on equities, esp US market.

Worried Japan has exposure to the US credit scandals. Also thinking Japan never lets its currency get too strong as it will kill exports.

Anyway - Please skip the analysis as this thread will get really long but if anyone can lay out some options.

I would be OK with timed deposit but I'd need to send money to my US bank annually.

I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

You have a really hard decision to make now. Usually as a chartist I would not like to be in the US$ now too but just to see it a bit from the fundamental side there are so many bad facts already priced into the dollar right now with the rate cut being the latest. For a trader its good to be short though. The guys at fidelity should be able to provide you with a currency hedge while staying in the $. There is definitely a turnaround coming up just who knows when but it will be fast and fulminant catching the majority of people on the wrong leg like it always is with currencies. This whole interest rate comedy is not only a FED problem but all over the worlds central banks. No way let yourself fooling into Gold or silver, though silver has at least some industrial value its still unpredictable and not a place to park money. If at Fidelity they cannot suggest how to at least keep your value plus inflation covered then change the bank immediately. And dont forget Americans are tricky and inventive, they will create new fundamental reasons to get their currency up on strong legs again. If that happens and it will you will have a reason to bite your ass twice, first for getting out of the dollar and second being long in a falling gold price. Hedge properly consulted by experts and sit this out.

Yes $ is primed for a rise.

I would not be so sure .

I locked in all 2007 dollar earnings sold dollars bought sterling at 1.83 this year , i know the dollar against sterling looks locked in trading range of 1.98 -2.02 at moment but i feel that dollar will make a move to 2.30 at some stage ouch .

If cable pulls back to 1.83 i will lock in 2008 earnings as well .

JB

In just what paralell universe did you buy the pound this year at $1.83 ( the pounds low point this year was in the 1.93-1.94 area), oh yes it must be the same alternative reality where the pound goes to $2.30 You must really have a deep hatered of the Btittish people to even wish that the pound goes to $2.30/Dollar, unemployment would skyrocket in the U.K. Let us know when you wake up

Vic i have met some idiots in my time but you take the biscuit you are a failed trader i know who hates hedge funds what did they do catch you short with your pants down .You are nearly right the low on cable was 1.91 beginning of march we were selling dollars throughout last year into this year and i know fact that our 6 million dollar profit for 2006 and the 3.8 million profit so far for 2007 is average conversion 1.83 .

We are just two guys sitting in an office not bad huh for someone that does not know what they are talking about .

I have forgot more about trading then you will probably ever learn .

Currencys are not my game and cable at 2.30 for my dollar earnings is like a poke in the eye with a sharp stick buy hey i beleive it will trade 2.30 and thats what makes a market ....unless your dead from the neck upwards and dont have a view .

JB

Good one JB, hehehe.

Hi lannabirth,

I know exactely what you mean, but I know how to filter the information given there. I just need it for the handful of good analysts and the fast newscoverage;). But thanks for warning!

beerlao

Hi beerlao,

Why would a daytrader (or anyone else for that matter) care what an "analyst" thinks? If they aren't making direct deposits to your brokerage account my suggestion still stands. Shut it off. Bias is something you absolutely don't need.

well, because when an analyst down- or upgrades a stock during market hours the stock most likely will move intraday under high volume and thats exactly what a daytrader can very well use. It takes rt-data/news feed of course and thats probably what BL is refering to.

Blaming hedge fonds is really just a cheap excuse. Everything whats listed at any exchange can and should be allowed to be traded however one likes. Why "regulate" their activities?

Admittedtly there are many companies listed at stock exchanges with fantasy business models but whose fault is that and who said that you should trade/invest with them. Simply keep your fingers away if you dont know how to do it and accept that you have to permanently adjust to the changing market environment.

The only thing what is unfair is that you as a private investor/trader are regulated when you play with your risk capital (which was already taxed when you earned it) and get milked again in case you make profits.

You alone are responsible for your losses and nobody else and also you are the gamblers when you lose and continue.

Hi,

I am looking for a good hotel in Bkk to stay for 1 to 2 weeks. I need internet in the room, Gym, Swimmingpool, Sauna/Spa. The room should be big and comfortable. Sukhumvit area. Please only people who made personal experience to reply.

Thanks in advance

you didn't mention the budget.

anyway, majestic grande on soi 2 would tick all the boxes in your original post.

Thanks, I have booked it.

Also thanks to the other suggestions.

has pool only

but great place my first choice always

woraburi

soi 4

Thanks Zeid, I need internet so that one is not an option.

Anyone?

Hi,

I am looking for a good hotel in Bkk to stay for 1 to 2 weeks. I need internet in the room, Gym, Swimmingpool, Sauna/Spa. The room should be big and comfortable. Sukhumvit area. Please only people who made personal experience to reply.

Thanks in advance

Citibank's P/E is 10.5 and the dividend yield is 4.74%. B of A's P/E is 10 and it yields 5.3%. How much of a subprime hit would they have to take for these figures to not look reasonable? You'd have to believe in a big sub prime hit followed by an extended recession not to like these stocks at current prices. Citibank has heavy international exposure. B of A is more of a US play.

1. Traders hate financials now.

2. I'm with the cooler heads that are thinking past the volatility.

1. Understandable, as nobody knows how bad the banks are or will be hurt, and...that's worldwide because of this subprime <deleted>.

2. I go along with you.

LaoPo

If you're familiar with market geometry at all, today, August 16, 2007 is the most important date of the past few years. Stay on your toes.

edit: for US markets

what makes you believe that?

samran,

What you're looking for is:

http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php

They're the best, cheapest most versatile broker you could wish for.

thats true they are the best.