Haecksler

4 hours ago, saengd said:

Actually yes! Because if your scaremongering story was correct we would have seen similar death rates go sky high in other countries where the virus has been found and we haven't. Fact is only one person has died from the virus in the PI and one in HK.

Wrong 2 have died outside China.

You obviously understand nothing, as you do not understand that the survival changes are far more high if you are admitted early to ICU and 4 specialists with all the medication are around you 24/7. In China this is not the case as people are refused because the hospitals are full. How many died nobody knows as they have not the capacity to test and the medical staff is exhausted.

This was reported long before the numbers skyrocketing and I believe that the number is far higher than reported.

6 minutes ago, StGeorge said:

To detract from one danger, by comparing to another danger, is the ploy of morons.

 

I had a similar situation in the 80s at work. I asked for specialist protective gear before i handled a PCB ( Polychlorinated biphenyl) product. I was offered surgical gloves. I refused and was threatened with the sack. My manager called in the company health & safety rep. He saw my M/bike and said i had more chance of dying on the roads than getting cancererous infection from PCB, and that there were ongoing tests to determine long term exposure to PCBs.

I replied it was my choice to ride a bike, but the company was forcing me to use the PCB, and the same tests determined eventually the Asbestos was a danger. 

My manager turned to my supervisor, and said "get him everything he wants".

 

Maybe Thailand should be making more of an effort to bring road accidents down, inline with the effort they have put into saving their tourist industry.

Spot on!!

Exactly all this comparison is made from people which want to downplay the threat or don't agree with the reality.

What kind of utter nonsense.

Downplay the situation which is obviously run out of control by comparing this with any other deaths.

Instead of implementing prudent measured they display two patience which recover and the tourist police must play punc-and-judy show in front of the media. What a disgrace.

Why they didn't report about the severe cases or the 45 sitting in quarantine and the cases of the 350  "under investigation"

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no33-050263.pdf

Did they test them? Did they test the people which recovered? did they test the people died recently? How many they can test per day did anybody mention this? What are the criteria to be a PUI? Did they change those criteria? etc. etc. etc.

We also know fortunately that there is still no evidence that asymptomatic people can spray the virus as the German Robert Koch institute admit errors in the reporting. The Chines woman which gave the virus to a couple of colleges  had allegedly already mild symptoms. That are good news but this does not change anything as mild symptoms are most likely without fewer hence not detected by temp. screening.

It would be so good if the whole thing is more transparent instead of downplaying the case.

5 hours ago, rabas said:

As for to 41 cohort study, this was a closed study in that all 41 cases were either dead or recovered. Their outcome is known. You are correct about sampling issues,

4 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

A lot of misinformation is going around about "death rate" figures.  Again for those who keep harping on a specific death rate figure for nCoV, there is no valid number right now since it requires

Hey guys please allow me that comment

You did both a outstanding work on all of this forums trying to bring a important and right message to the people and I see that you are now discussing / (hope not arguing) about something which is relevant but not relevant in precise numbers.

This virus is dangerous and people should prepare accordingly. People should not compare it with the flu I think this is misleading the point entirely.

It would be a pitty to see you guys wasting your time instead of posting more important facts.

I just closed a chat with a Chinese man and definitely he could not answer my questions about the situations at the hospitals. But he said that they use methylprednisolone to treat the symptoms with subsequent bone problems. Can you comment that? 

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Well perhaps you should read the thread. A poster who went on here to claim there is a 3% mortality rate then proceeded to declare that mortality rate can't be calculated and doesn't matter at all. Even more curiously he then proceeded to accuse John Read of Lancaster university of just using Chinese figures. However the whole point of Read's calculation was to go beyond the Chinese figures and calculate the number of actual infected and thus likely mortality rate can be calculated. He did this very convincingly.

 

While the number of cases can not be logged by the Chinese for obvious reasons, not all are caught, want to come forward or even know they have the virus, the registering of deaths is a much more accurate exercise. For obvious reasons the number of deaths is much closer to an accurate figure than the number of infected.

 

Since the COV virus is easily identified and the Chinese have the labs to do so, there is no doubt at all that the number of deaths is closer to accuracy than the number of infected people. 

 

And Read did not do a spreadsheet. He used sophisticated models and equations.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

Well yes I did read the thread and many many others which you obviously did not.

Otherwise you would not post this utter rubbish "Since the COV virus is easily identified and the Chinese have the labs to do so"

Which makes me completely laugh and show me that you understood nothing.

I saw many utterly wrong stats as I know how data was gathered. Again it depends on the numbers inserted.

I believe the people which are outside at the front line which did here some outstanding work instead of some air condition room - spread sheet manager.

11 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

20% of what.... if 20% ended up in ARDS with a lack of resources... the mortality rate would not be 2% it would be significantly higher.

 

Advanced models indicate that while the current confirmed cases are 15,000, the number of actual cases are likely north of 200,000.   There are likely lots of people not showing up in the numbers at all right now because you can have it and be without symptoms (a troubling thing if you are trying to track contacts). 

 

You can also have it and test negative...  so the tests themselves are fallible.

 

What is the source for your 20% number?

 

I think I found the source for the 20% number, but you are misinterpreting it.   Of those that went to hospital, and were admitted to hospital then 20%+ cases were sever and required ICU or had ARDS.  The problem with quoting that number in isolation is the vast majority of those infected would NOT go to hospital and NOT be admitted to hospital but just be quarantined at home.

Quite good point how ever without heaving secured raw data everything is just a guess.

The source came from the result from the very first 41 cases and the subsequent 91 cases as far as I know so where Chinese doctors had secured data.  Follow this link it says many but nothing.

https://dailyblocks.com/r/videos/comments/euy2yq/dr_gabriel_leung_dean_of_medicine_dire_projection/

What we know is that the virus makes sick and in some cases very sick. Further more it is highly contagious if you have it you might spread it to your family and friends. If really the sh...t hits the fan you might have problems to find help in case you are very sick. Happen right now in china. How many people die because the virus we don't know, how many people are infected we don't know.

What we know for sure we can not trust the numbers either from Chinese nor from any other "democratic elected" Government in this region.

7 hours ago, samuttodd said:

I think that what has happened in wuhan will happen in Bkk.   It is just that there is a lag time for the virus to catch up... I hope I am wrong.

You could be right.

But I hope not

8 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

To me, this does not sound like very effective government.  Even now, all you hear from state-sponsored media in China (which is virtually ALL media) is "happy-face" proclamations by Party officials about how glorious and effective the people's government efforts are, and that there is no need for concern, that all is just fine, and there is nothing to worry about.

And from the WHO, too. ????

n-CoV.

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

You are failing to grasp what was in the link provided. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University is precisely NOT taking the Chinese figures as accurate, he is saying that they are only able to record 5% of cases. Again, that means there are about 350,000 cases and with the current number of deaths, that is roughly a 0.1% mortality rate. Same as influenza.

 

His calculation is based on a variety of factors. Read the link.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

 

I don't know which part of the story is not understood.

The data coming out of China are not trustworthy.

The University assumes 5% of cases are reported only which seems to be realistic.

But then they take the death numbers for real which is wrong IMO.

The deaths on stat counts only with n-CoV on the certificate.

That is not happen as many are dying without being tested.

You can let any spread sheet look good depending on the numbers inserted

I found this quite interesting

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-philippines-thailand.html

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I guess you meant combat the virus? Yes, fast diagnostics are a necessity. Thais have none of it.

sure corrected already thanks for letting me know

6 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Her overview of the amount of people "under investigation". 

Imagine the amount of human ressources and hospital beds required in 3 months from now to handle this.

 

 

 

Upsi!! There we go

IMO not sufficient action to fight the virus.

Why? To contain a virus you have to identify and isolate the ones being infected. That should explain it. Correct me if I am wrong.

3 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

Even after this Corona Virus Outbreak has been declared " safe ". many Tourists from all over the World will be extremely cautious over planting their feet on Thai soil.

The Country is being perceived as being " irresponsible " by many over its handling of the Corona Virus situation. By allowing Chinese Tourists into the Kingdom during this outbreak, the Government are being seen as money grabbing, putting Money before the lives of People, whether they are Thai, Chinese or from other Nations.

The Government have already made their case clear and Tourists will make their case clear in the future, specially if the Chinese Tourists are back in droves.

 

Spot on but unfortunately the mass of consumers have a short memory.

You know what is one important criteria upon booking? Safety? Clean beaches? clean air? clean environment?

No, - WiFi is most important.

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

And which Thai government entity or international entity produced the raw data for Thailand?

 

Per chance the same one that coughs up the unemployment figures? The Ministry of Truth?

 

Sure, the backlog was only 405 pending, growing hand in hand with suspected. Maybe 5-10 diagnosis made per day.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

I'll call BS on the GHS Index.

Awesome!! I was searching this page.

The number PUI is growing scary. At least some thing is published.

Especially the number of "Sought medical services on their own at hospitals"

I guess this will rising in the coming weeks.

The GHS Index is something I have a great smile on it not more. Thailand ahead of Germany ????

Nobody living in this country for years and did some work outside gogo bars and pubs can believe this.

I can't be more agree with you.

And meanwhile the virus might spread already and no updated numbers are out. This scares the s....t out of me.

I mean to be frank using logical thinking and common senses why on earth shouldn't this virus spread in Thailand knowing the given circumstances.

So please Thai Government make the right thing and inform the public about the current situation.

1 hour ago, ThomasThBKK said:

http://research.uga.edu/docs/policies/compliance/hso/Guidance-on-Emergency-and-Off-Label-Use-of-Drugs-Biologics-and-Medical-Devices.pdf

 

Off label use is totally fine in emergency situations, it is often even paid by insurance companies (cancer treatments etc).

 

 

I think, if you ever get this, you should refuse the doctors if they offer you this medicine. Just to make a point.

 

Please read what the OP wrote: "Rather, they had the opportunity to observe and to participate with the rest of the world in an ethical clinical trial. The Chinese published in Lancet and allowed for peer review."

And this is the headline:"Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors"

I think your post is irrelevant. They apply the drug because there was an emergency and they might save her live. But that was not published as so and nobody knows why the conditions improved. To many ?? to claim to found a drug "to help fight coronavirus"

@rabas  Excellent posts all of them outstanding work!!
I have some small knowledge about of bacteria infections which is highly depending on the concentration / amount of bacteria entering your body. You mentioned that "If only only one virus entering your lung you won't get infected." So that means a virus infection is also depending on the concentration / amount of microbes entering your system? I assume that only because of this reason any mask would be useful.

30 minutes ago, stevenl said:

I was right, I said 'I think'.

 

But yes, latest information is 4, very true. Does that mean Germany has to be isolated? My kids go to a private school where now many of the farang kids are being kept at home, leaving just a few of those plus some mainland Chinese. These Chinese kids have been here for quite some time, I really don't panic about that.

 

IMO it is far from a global emergency.

What do you mean with "Germany isolated"? I guess the patience where isolated in a Hospital near Munich. Fortunately they doing good as far as I know. It seems Germany is well organized and every flight in has to provide every detail incl. passenger/seat list and other travel details in order to trace contacts of evtl. infected. 40 People which was in contact where identified and handled accordingly.

What I learned all private schools are connected and considering to close down. I also not panic but my risk assessment might be more strict than yours as I think that the potential of transmitting the virus in a school is very high due to sport activities and the contact in the canteen.

I had pneumonia a couple of years ago and I certainly want to save my family from such kind of nightmare at all costs.

Interesting i find is the fact that the classroom of your kid / kids are low occupied and people think different about this topic.

40 minutes ago, stevenl said:

So far we have had I think 2 people contracting the virus abroad, 1 in Japan and 1 in Germany.

I would recommend to stay away from Wuhan.

 

BTW, I speak to many scientists, molecular biologists due to having extensive contacts in that field, who are of the same opinion as I am.

Not quite right

4 in Germany. All of them allegedly infected from a Chinese college. She was from Shanghai and got it from relatives from Wuahn.

Interesting the woman did not show symptoms. We don't know whether the relatives which she meet showed symptoms. Many misinformation and many not prudent posts and many BS. I am standing here and don't know what to do. Panicking is wrong in any case but take any risk is out of consideration.

So if you have those contacts would you send your kids to school with 25% mainland Chinese? Nobody know travel history nobody know contact to Wuhan people during Chinese new year. The kids stay home so far.

Your opinion will be appreciated

The OP did a very good job thank you for this information and spending your time for it.

It is sad to see how many simple-minded TV members are present contributing their utter BS to this fantastic post. This post shows clearly the difference between the official information (maybe also statistics) and the reality. I think this is what the OP want to say/show. This coincide my assumption and make me more worry as I can see how the sickness might spread on Thai soil. (I don't hope so)

I just can repeat it from another post:

The hospital is the last place you want to be now. Any measure you can take to minimize the risk must be done to stay healthy. It is assumed that the Spanish flu was less lethal how ever the circumstances that so many had it lead to improper handling of the patience hence the big amount of death due to pneumonia caused be post bacteria infection.

For all the TV Doctors, specialists and other BS let me tel you something:

It always strikes me down if death numbers are compared with the annually flu victims. OK. for all of this guys seeing this numbers as not an issue means you think if a A 380 crashes and 530 people are minced is not problem as the flu kills every year ????????? ????

In this moment it is completely irrelevant how much is the death rate. Why? Because there is a risk that now many people going to hospitals. This is the place where you absolutely don't want to be in this moment. If later more people getting sick hospitals will not be able to provide IC as they run out of equipment.

Happening right now in Wuhan. Therefor it is now essential to stay healthy in either way. Any contribution to minimize the risk must be done.

Samitivej Hospital

3 hours ago, CLW said:

I heard western experts opposing to point #6.

 

The virus can be already spread from persons with non-symptomatic signs e.g. during the incubation period.

 

Anyone else? 

Absolutely

It is confirmed from Webasto, a German Company and from the German Health authorities that the 33y old guy got the virus from a Chinese woman which was the leader of a training event in the Webasto facility in Germany. That is new as the woman did not show any symptoms. Just when she fly back she developed symptoms during the flight.

The disturbing fact is that every report I read stated that "it is not proved yet whether the virus can be transmitted from people without symptoms"

So the hospital which posted that FAQ knows it better. (point no.: 6)- Everything under control of course. But the German case teach us otherwise.

4 hours ago, Kerryd said:

The majority of the Chinese tourists going to Thailand (or anywhere else) are not coming from the infected areas so the chances are slim that many of them are carrying the virus.

 

In fact, of the known (8) cases in Thailand so far, 7 were Chinese tourists that came from Wuhan and one was a Thai woman who had returned from a visit to Wuhan. Most of the Chinese tourists coming to Thailand are not from Wuhan. Thinking they all come from the same place would be like saying the most of the expats in Thailand all come from Little ShagMySister in the Moors (not far from Draycott in the Moors I think).

And of those 8 cases, I believe 5 have tested clean (having fully recovered) and the other 3 are simply under observation. Once they've recovered they won't be infectious and probably will be immune to that virus in the future. 
Though the virus tends to mutate (quickly) and they could become infected with a different strain of the same virus in the future.

 

Just like the flu virus which mutates constantly which is why people have to get flu shots each year. But the shots they normally give are created on what the doctors think is the most prevalent strain of the season's new flu viruses.
That is why some people still get the flu even though they got a flu shot. 

For example, in Canada doctors may decide that it looks like the XY339 strain will be the biggest threat this year based on testing in Quebec and Ontario so they make the vaccines (flu shots) based on that. Basically they ignore all other strains that may have shown up in the testing and go for the one they think will be the biggest threat.

You get your shot and think you are safe, but you're in Vancouver and get exposed to the YX933 strain that 50 planeloads of people from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Manila brought with them. You get the flu and are upset because the shot didn't work. (And then next year it's the opposite and you still end up getting a flu because you got a shot meant to counter the prevalent strain on the West Coast and then run into one person who came from the East Coast and just happened to be sick with a different variant.)

I gave up on getting flu shots when I was in Canada and in the 20+ years since then I think I've been sick 3 times and 2 of those times was in Afghanistan.

Also remember, these kinds of viruses will usually have little effect on the average, healthy person besides the usual flu symptoms, even if you aren't in great shape.
The ones that are most affected tend to be the elderly, the very young and those with pre-existing ailments like lung cancer or an autoimmune disease. (That is why 5 of the 8 people identified in Thailand as being infected have already been cleared and gone home.)

Also remember that in order to get infected you'd literally have to be next to someone who is already infected and is coughing or sneezing close enough to you that you could inhale some of the (very) tiny droplets released by their coughing/sneezing or get them in your eyes (or an open wound of some kind). If you are getting jiggy with someone who's infected I'm guessing that would do it as well !
I think in the cases where they've identified an infected person who was on a plane, they are just checking everyone that was within 2 rows of that person, not the whole plane.

Some experts think this will be contained within weeks. Also consider that of the thousands of cases in China (4,515 at latest count) there have only been 106 deaths so far as most of the people infected make full recoveries.
From an article I just read:
"Official data suggested that most of the previous victims were between the ages of 65 and 80. Previously a 48-year-old woman with diabetes was the youngest reported fatality. The oldest were two 88-year-old men."

The youngest victim (so far) was a 36 year old male but they haven't mentioned if he had an underlying condition (like AIDS) that may have affected him.

It seems that there are only a total of about 45 cases identified outside of China (so far) as well in 13 different countries and in every case, the people infected were either from Wuhan or had recently visited there. 

Considering the thousands and thousands of Chinese travellers going around the world everyday, it seems the possibilities of running into an infected person are somewhere between zero and not-a-chance-in-hell.
Maybe less than that.

Sorry but your post is almost irresponsible.

You / we don't know anything about the virus. Please study all the articles in the press and stop sitting in front of the screen and believe and make your recommendations just concerning the statistics.

In whuan the hospitals running out of everything incl. test kits and staff. Many people are send home without testing. So how you think how accurate are those numbers?? Death certificates stating "pneumonia" as nobody have the time to check whether this is the virus or something else.

Additionally now nearly every news channel in the developed world tells that the numbers are under reported.

So stop commenting on the blunt statistics. It is not a flu, how the sickness will process in each case is unknown.

So I would not take the risk as it is not worth to take it.

I rather stuck to my capabilities to evaluate not to some  numbers which are not really trustworthy.

22 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

Let's hope the rate of infection slows down as China locks down more cities. At the present rate the number of dead is doubling every 2 days. To put that into perspective the total number of dead if the infection and mortality rate was maintained would come out as follows:

29 January - 160 dead

31 January - 320 dead

2 February - 640 dead

4 February - 1,280 dead

6 February - 2,560 dead

8 February - 5,120 dead

10 February - 10,240 dead

12 February - 20,480 dead

14 February - 40,960 dead

Happy Valentine's Day!

16 February - 81,920 dead

18 February - 163,840 dead

20 February - 327,680 dead

22 February - 655,360 dead

24 February - 1,310,720 dead

26 February - 2,621,400 dead

28 February - 5,242,880 dead

I am not saying that this is what will happen, and I am hopeful it will be a lot less serious than this, but isolation and quarantine are the only ways that this virus can be stopped from spreading until scientists find a way of curing it.

To that extent, it is madness that Thailand has God knows how many flights still flying in from China. 

I predict that schools in Thailand will be closed within 2 weeks, but it will be too late.

Took my precautions already and kept the kids away from school which will apply to the next 14 days  despite every measure the school might have in place (international school).

Standard procedure to handle a pandemic: "Identification and isolation of those being infected". 

As there is 24% identification rate by temperature scanning only my decision is just common sense.

Additional I not believe the numbers being reported, neither from China nor from Thailand.

Just stay informed from different sources and use your own brain. No reason for panic.

12 minutes ago, Chazar said:

Yes  I  have twice

Just keep the facts

your reply was about invitation of a Thai person and if you do so you are responsible for this person.

If something serious happen your address is relevant.