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marcardar

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About marcardar

  • Birthday 01/01/1985

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    marie_cardar

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    Bangkok

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    Canada

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  1. Why do you continue to avoid this data that proves your 99% unvaccinated constant to be nonsense:
  2. That's not what sample size means. Anyway, why not comment on these bigger numbers which destroy your argument:
  3. No, the sample size is 69.8million (the population of Thailand). If they took a random sample of 21 people from Thailand and then looked at how many of them were vaccinated and how many not, then you would have a point. Sadly, you don't have a point at all because the 21 people is not random - it is all the people known to have died amongst a population of 69.8million people.
  4. Yet more evidence that the above is total nonsense: And no, this does not imply that vaccinations are not working. The fact the percentage of unvaccinated (amongst deaths) is falling is explained by there being fewer and fewer unvaccinated people, not by reduced vaccine efficacy.
  5. And here we have the proof that the 99% figure does not stay constant, but rather changes as more and more people get vaccinated. https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/d6p8-wqjm In summary let's look at the first and last week available: In first week of September 2021 (7793 deaths): Fully vaccinated with booster deaths: 11 (0.1%) Fully vaccinated deaths: 1437 (18.4%) Unvaccinated deaths: 6,345 (81.4%) In first week of December 2021 (2912 deaths): Fully vaccinated with booster deaths: 61 (2.1%) Fully vaccinated deaths: 621 (21.3%) Unvaccinated deaths: 2,230 (76.6%) And for those who do not understand basic statistics, and think this means: I refer to my first post: The data is correct and follows what we would expect. The reason for explaining this is to counter those that think a rising percentage of vaccinated deaths implies vaccines don't work, or are getting less effective. No, it implies nothing of the sort. It is explained by the fact that more and more people are being vaccinated and so there are less unvaccinated people that can die.
  6. I'm not talking about the vaccine becoming less effective, but rather if (in a parallel world) there was a vaccine that was less effective than our one(s). Actually, if your logic was correct, then you would say zero efficacy would lead to 50% of covid deaths unvaccinated. And this exposes the flaw in your logic. Because this will only be true if 50% of the population is unvaccinated. In reality, for a totally ineffective vaccine, the percentage of covid deaths unvaccinated will match exactly that unvaccinated percentage of the population. The graph would be perfect straight line. For a 100% effective vaccine, the percentage of deaths would be 100% unvaccinated For a 90% effective vaccine (like we have now), the graph will bend towards having more unvaccinated amongst the dead. The more effective the vaccine the more the graph bends. But anyway, the only possible way for the percentage unvaccinated to be constant (regardless of vaccine coverage) would be if that constant is 100% (i.e. totally effective vaccine). And we know this is not true because of the 150 vaccinated people who died in May 2021 (in the link).
  7. This is really fascinating logic. I'm curious, if the vaccine lost all of it's efficacy what would the magic percentage be?
  8. So you're claiming the percentage for critical care will decrease, but not the percentage for deaths. That makes no sense. The Omicron argument doesn't make sense either. Or are you admitting your logic doesn't hold pre-Omicron? Things we do know: May 2020 (when 0% of the population vaccinated): 100% covid deaths are unvaccinated May 2021: 99% covid deaths unvaccinated With 100% vaccinated population: 0 deaths unvaccinated. Assuming at least one vaccinated death - 100% covid death vaccinated So you have to accept the value moved from 100% to 99%. You know how numbers move. We can also have 100.0 - 99.9 - 99.8 -.... It would've gone gradually (whisper: as the vaccination rate increased). Do you think it just jumped from 100 to 99? Or did it move gradually and then just sit there in its happy place? What if everyone refused the vaccine? Would the 99% figure look different? But your logic says the 99% is from the vaccine efficacy. But that can't be true, because if no one is vaccinated then it's not possible that 99% of deaths are unvaccinated (has to be 100%). This really is not hard. Of the people who die from covid, the % that are vaccinated depends on the efficacy of the vaccine and the percentage of people vaccinated, at the very least.
  9. Well, that's not true because every vaccine has a known relative risk reduction. So, when I said: you didn't understand what I meant. Not only was I NOT implying that vaccinated people are more likely to die from covid, but explicitly said that vaccinated people are at least 10 times less likely to die from covid. Also, you haven't explained why the BMJ gave figures (percentage unvaccinated in critical care) decreasing over time. Completely contradicting your 99% set in stone figure. The original link actually makes a similar mistake: What they actually mean is: only .8% (150) of 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were vaccinated.
  10. Let's set this out more clearly: May 2021: 14,850 unvaccinated deaths + 150 vaccinated deaths - So 99% were unvaccinated. Suddenly, all the unvaccinated get vaccinated, so we have 100% of the population vaccinated. Now, we've already demonstrated that 150 vaccinated people can die in May 2021, so increasing the number of vaccinated people will increase the number of vaccinated deaths, proportionally (assuming the same infection rates). This is why I said "at least 200" vaccinated deaths. The number of unvaccinated deaths would be zero because there are no unvaccinated people available to die. So, using my logic, we would end up with 200 vaccinated deaths + 0 unvaccinated deaths - so 0% were unvaccinated. Using your circular logic, if there are 200 deaths, then only 2 of those can be vaccinated because the 99% rule is somehow set in stone. However, you have just disproved your own hypothesis, because for that to be true, at least 198 people would need to be unvaccinated, but the scenario only allows for max 0 unvaccinated deaths/people. This statement alone demonstrates that you don't understand the difference between % chance of a vaccinated person dying from covid, and % chance that a person dying from covid has been vaccinated.
  11. Well, for this scenario of 100% vaccination coverage, the sample size would be 100% of the population, and you can't get much bigger than that. In the original link, 150 vaccinated people died in May 2021. If 100% of the population was vaccinated, that number would be larger (assuming same infection rates). Let's say at least 200 people. By your logic, there would be at least 20,000 unvaccinated deaths. That's a pretty large number considering 0 unvaccinated people. It depends what you mean by "greater proportions" of what. This is the point I think you haven't yet understood. If everyone is vaccinated then all covid deaths will be of the vaccinated. This is nothing to do with sample size. This doesn't mean that vaccinated people are more likely to die. It just means there are less unvaccinated people who can die. I really don't know how else this can be clearer.
  12. So if 100% of people in the population are vaccinated, you still expect 99% of those who die to be unvaccinated, eh?
  13. What's interesting is that people on all sides don't understand basic statistics.
  14. Not sure if you're trolling or not. But of course that is not true. Simply consider the case where every single person is vaccinated. Then of course 0% of the people who die will be unvaccinated. Have a read of the quote and link I posted.
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