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rickirs

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Posts posted by rickirs

  1. "buying producing assets may be cheaper than exploring for new petroleum reserves,"

    Not generally.

    Producing ASSETS do not become cheaper with the price of oil. The wholesale price of oil includes the value of the oil that can and will fluctuate. The cost of assets are fixed, sunk costs aside from declining value for depreciation and set aside for capital re-investment. There are exceptions such as companies that have gone bankrupt or heading towards bankruptcy who are willing to sell company assets for less than "book" value to recoup a little of their original investment. Maybe bankrupt company assets are what PTTEP is looking for investment.

    In fact producing ASSETS may appreciate in value over time if the cost for new assets has appreciably increased over time and/or there is a scarcity of availability of those assets in the market. In the 1970's portable oil rigs were so much in demand throughout the world, the purchase price of a new rig was easily triple the original cost - supply & demand.

  2. <script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

    What goes up, must come down. Ignoring/minimizing air resistance, which for a dense, streamlines object (like a bullet) is reasonable, it will come down nearly as hard as it left the barrel. It certainly could penetrate roof and ceiling and a few layers of flesh.

    Many years ago, my boss' brand new truck came up with a big crease at the edge of the roof on New Year's day, which he reported to the police. The sergeant who took the report said that every patrol car on duty New Year's eve sat under a freeway overpass from 11:50 pm until 12:10 am to avoid falling slugs from all the idiots who fire into the air at midnight. He was serious.

    At least in the US, no one launches hot-air incendiary bombs to celebrate...


    I am afraid that's nowhere close to being true. Firstly, a bullet in free-fall will tumble and not come down in a streamlined fashion, that's why gun barrels are rifled. Secondly, terminal velocity for a bullet in free-fall is less than 100 m/s, whereas the muzzle velocity of a bullet fired from a small arm typically is in excess of 1,000 m/s, that's a major difference. That's not saying that it wouldn't hurt to be hit by a falling bullet, but it's very unlikely to be fatal and wouldn't penetrate a typical roof (there was a Mythbusters episode covering this subject). Check these Wikipedia articles if interested: Terminal velocity, Muzzle velocity.

    That said, people seem to be jumping to conclusions here. Nowhere in the article does it say that the bullet was fired into the air. It could just as easily have been fired from a window or roof of an adjacent (taller) building.

    Sophon

    If the bullet were fired from a window or roof of an adjacent building, surely it must have travelled through the air to get to the victim's roof unless the injured lived under water.

  3. Thailand will spend $1 billion USD fighting and SOLVING the illicit drug industry covering the ASEAN-5 and China countries.

    In comparison Mexico's cost of fighting the drug cartels in 2013 was almost $172.7 billion, almost one tenth (9.4%) of Mexico’s GDP or $1,430 per person! (ref. Global Peace Index 2014). That's about half of Thailand's total GDP! And we know how poorly Mexico's efforts have been to date - certainly the drug problems have not been SOLVED.

    If there was a truth-o-meter on General Prayuth's statement, it would explode farang-style.

  4. With the exception of autos, most factories appear to be geared for manufacturing of products for domestic sale. About 70% of Thailand's GDP has been in exports, largely autos, rubber, and foods like rice, seafood, pork, and chicken. The trend for exports is negative to no growth with rubber and farm prices down, and stagnant global GDP growth. China's economy is predicted for further economic contraction. Russia's economy is in limbo. The USA economy is a bright spot for imports but the Junta may already have burned its economic bridges with that country in favor of closer trade with China and Russia (and I thought gambling was illegal in Thailand).

    The "bright" future for Thailand in 2015 will depend more on its ability to absorb most of its factory production domestically. If GDP growth for 2015 is less than 2%, the country will be in recession and Thai industries will be in trouble. Current government projection is 4% GDP growth but lower than for the ASEAN-5 as a whole. For Thailand to achieve an average GDP growth rate of 4% with no growth from exports, the domestic economy will alone have to expand 12%. The Junta would do better to buy lottery tickets.

  5. It is naive to think that a ideological match can only come from the same family. People can actually share the same ideology having no familiy relationships. And the opposite is true - people from the same familiy can have opposing ideologies. A case in point are the American billionaire Koch brothers, none of whom have ever run for elected office. Yet they have donated billions of US dollars to candidates who represent the Koch ideologies.

    Thaksin financial support for PTP candidates comes down to a matter of who can be trusted to carry the Thaksin ideological "flag" and to whether the Thaksin ideology is still relevant to the Thai electorate now. In either case, the matter of significant Thaksin financial support for future PTP non-family candidates shouldn't diminish and there will be no shortage of PTP candidates that can represent Thaksin's populist ideologies. And that is the real fear of the Thai military and the impetus to place a stranglehold on any future elected government, even if led by the Democrats. The Junta does not want flag bearers; it wants pall bearers.

  6. "These difficult bills cannot get passed by a normal government. We would like to get them finished during the term of this government."

    No truer words. A democratically-elected government (aka "normal") formulated by the German MMP electoral system that the CDC wants to adopt would not allow such bills to develop, much less pass.

    It is wise of the Junta-led government to get as many laws passed as possible by its self-appointed and rubberstamp National Legislative Assembly, with the Junta-created constitution making repeal or amendment of such laws impossible, before it allows a "normal" government to succeed its administration.

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    8.1% are not satisfied!!

    I reckon these polls are rigged.

    We do know that 7% of red shirts are hard core meaning they support terrorism and violence, but 8.1%! They are saying that more than 7% now preferred the daily terrorist attacks and instability that rocked Bangkok up until the coup?

    I don't believe a word of it. If anything the 81.% should have been going down, but then it must be understood the honeymoon period of the Junta is receding so this increase in numbers could be attributed to that.

    Me and my kids thank the Junta on a daily basis for the reversing of the coup. The military backed by the people, preserved their nation, countered the PTP insurgent coup (yes yes yingluck was elected), and reclaimed their country.

    Even though this poll is rigged it still shows the overwhelming majority support the reversing of this coup.

    The "rigged" poll shows that the majority of those POLLED or about 1,693 people allegedly support the junta-led government. Put that in perspective with 33 million voters. The Junta has been very wise to keep the whole "rigged" constitution process away from the Thai electorate.

  8. "the prime minister from this election will likely have no the power to control all policies and the administration of the country"

    CORRECT

    Isn't it the objective of the NCPO to so weaken the PM position and all the federal government agencies so that they can never create serious opposition to military political power? This objective would be contrary to and threatened by the CDC's strict adoption of Germany's Multi-Member Party system that the CDC has now chosen to basterize in its alleged use. The proposed constitution will have so many independent "checks and balances" over any elected government policies and administrative actions that what the NCPO created will have a long, unadulterated lifespan. This Junta will give a door of democracy to the Thai people but it will keep the keys to the door's lock.

  9. Two points:

    1- EC was mentioned as an Independent Organization.

    I thought the concensus of the CDC was that the EC would lose its independent status and its role would be folded into one or more existing Cabinet Department ministers. EC Director objected. But of course the NCPO ultimately decides what goes into the new Constitution. Did the NCPO override the CDC or was EC just incorrectly mentioned by The Nation as an Independent Organization which it is currently? I'm unsettled about the inaccuracy to say the least as the EC should not be an Independent Organization.

    2- "the selection of any independent organization must be participated by several agencies."

    Why would agencies of the government, especially an unelected Junta-led government, have the authority to participate in the selection any independent organization. Of course, not surprisingly there is no mention of electorate participation in the selection. I must congradulate the Junta for being consistent with the complete absence of ANY democratic process in the creation of a new constitution and resulting Frankensteinian government.

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    Russian hubris. They made Auschwitz possible when Stalin and the Russians allied with Hitler and invaded Poland in 1939. And then later on the barbarous Red Army murdered over 20,000 captured Polish officers in the Katyn Massacre. Not to mention almost half a century of Russian dictatorship, terror, and killings until the brutes collapsed in 1989.

    But do not forget the games Poland (with the help of UK and France) played with the German minority in Poland. Without trying to starve them out Hitler might never have attacked Poland.

    Good one - Hilter as the defender of the oppressed!!!!

    Now that is what I call a true mockery of history.

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  11. It is Putin who mocks history.

    Political relations between Warsaw and Moscow have been particularly bad since September 2014. In response to the Russian-led insurgency in Crimea and Ukraine, Poland had lobbied the EU hard to impose tougher sanctions on Moscow, and it is to host elements of a new Nato rapid reaction force, created in response to the Russian intevention in Ukraine.

    In September 2014 Russia to cut gas exports to Poland without warning up to 24% when Poland had been exporting gas itself to Ukraine to make up for Russian shortfalls there. Putin has since threatened a complete gas shutoff to the whole of Europe if it aided Ukraine in any fashion to counter pro-Russian insurgents in Ukraine. History has shown that when one nation takes unilateral threatening action against another, the other nation will react.

    Putin lives in a nation where people thinks he is a Hero. He needs to get out more often, maybe flirt with a few world leader wives. He is not as formidable as he thinks.

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    Watch out for Scott Walker, a governor with a very good record.

    IMHO Palin, Romney, Santorum, Huckabee, Trump and Jindal plus a few others are not players. They will run but I don't think they will ever be nominated.

    The US needs someone with previous management experience, unlike the current "Prez". OJT ain't the solution ever again.

    I'm of the opinion the GOP might end up running with two governors on the ticket. After all, they have 35 to choose from.

    "previous management experience" ???

    Read Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter, by Harvard Business School professor Gautam Mukunda. He "argues that 'unfiltered leaders' — those who haven’t had much relevant experience — will likely have a greater impact than filtered leaders. What’s harder to predict is whether that impact will be good or bad." It is very relevant.

    Other than running for re-election for President of the United States of America, there is no job in the US (or maybe on earth) one can have that provides sufficient "management experience" to run a country of 300+ million people having a $15.7 trillion GDP with 119 million full-time employees and a federal budget of $1.1 trillion. Then there comes the added roles of being leader of the free world and superpower - a nation loved by some, envied by many, and hated by others. Some of the most successul presidents in USA history "broke the mold" to what they experienced in their own lives. Their success was to expand beyond their singular experiences into a persona that can unite and lead a nation.

    Which of the current propsective Republicans can be said to be "unfiltered" leaders? Who can you see as the next Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower, or Abraham Lincoln? Who can rise above themselves to become greater than the sum of their experiences? But party politics is never so enlightened but the history of USA presidential elections has shown that a successful candidate must be able to build coalitions of support BEYOND their own ideology. "Previous management experience" is almost irrelevant to that end.

  13. Section 35- "gain access to information on communications, either by post, telegram, telephone, fax, computer, any tool or instrument for electronic media communication or telecommunications, for the benefit of the operation for the maintenance of Cybersecurity."

    Essentially any and all forms of communication!

    If you use VPN, the government would have the right to monitor that communication. This is something the Chinese are now attempting to gain control over, for national security purposes. If VPN providers do not provide unrestricted government access to customer accounts, I expect the Prayuth government will create its own VPN system for the public and mandate its use in lieu of any private VPN providers - similar to North Korea. To this end the government may require registration of IP Adresses for all computers operating in Thailand.

    For the ASEAN Community this law means the digital isolation of Thailand from the ASEAN countries and patners. And that wouldn't be very helpful to the Thai economy.

  14. The rule of law can only be respected when all segements of society respects it, including the military. The rule of law has no validity when the military forces its own "rule of law" onto the Thais people through military coup, abolishment of the constitution, martial law, and military dominated government. Under NCPO's Articles 17 and 44 of the Provisional Charter, democratic rule of law CANNOT exist.

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  15. I think army chief General Udomdej Sitabutr was just confused. He thought he was in South Thailand where the army can boss its way around the countryside. Unfortunately, Cambodia protects its sovereignty as vigorously as Thailand. Now the good Thai army chief has singlehandedly poisoned relations with Cambodia - General Prayuth should relieve him or transfer him to become a special deputy to the PM.

  16. "to stop asking children about whether they are familiar with his moral teachings, known as the "Twelve Values."

    Okay, when the military stops using civilian government resources to promote Prayuth's personal 12 values as if he were a reincarnation of Buddha.

    "The Royal Thai Army has announced plans to use social media to promote the teachings of Thai junta leader and former army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha. We will establish a network on Facebook, social media sites, and websites that are popular among teenagers to develop the new generation of leaders," said Maj.Gen. Wattana, officer in charge of the army's Civilian Affairs Department.


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