Srikcir

"Nevertheless, the gross domestic product is expected to expand to three percent, thanks to robust tourism and service industries, which are expected to enjoy a growth of 15 percent."

NO

Exports, government spending, and domestic consumption contributes 90% GDP. Tourism and service industries only contribute 10% GDP. If the former is essentially little or no growth, the latter must have a growth of 30% to achieve a 3% total GDP growth rate. That is not going to happen.

What's this BS about 6 months? Been a year now!

When was the current government appointed by Royal decree?

So there was somebody else in control before the Royal decree?

Thai king appoints army chief as junta head

BANGKOK, May 26, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's king has formally appointed the army chief as head of the nation's new military junta following a recent coup.

"To restore peace and order in the country and for sake of unity, the king appointed General Prayut Chan-O-Cha as head of the National Council of Peace and Order to run the country," according to a royal command seen by AFP on Monday."

General Prayut would have controlled the nation for ten months.

The economic facts cited by Thanawat are correct and alarming. The Center's revised growth for 2015 at 3.2% is still probably high and more likely will fall in a range of 2.4%-3.0%. A growth rate of 2.4% or less will constitute deflation over a six month period.

Contrast the Center's projection with recent National Economic and Social Development Board's forecast for Thai economic growth at 3.5-4.5% yesterday by Deputy Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith at a meeting before the committee of economic ministers, chaired by Gen. Prayut.

As the economy predictably worsens, the Junta's propoganda will intensify its optimistic predictions and take credit for the alleged well-being of the nation under its rule.

Under the 2007 Constitution the Junta-led government would lose a vote of confidence and put the government up to new elections, likely with new leadership. But the reality is that the Thai people have no power to determine their government and hold the Junta-led government accountable for the worsening economy. But the Thai people do have personal and economic power that can challenge Junta leadership.

The beginning of 2015Q3 is going to become a very messy political and economic environment, especially if combined with an endorsed constitution without a public referendum. Prayut may find his partnership agreements with Russia and China will do little to secure the life of the Junta.

"no country could build a better society through the exploitation of the rights and freedoms of others."

North Korea is No. 1 but Prayut is trying.

"if people do not respect the law, the country cannot survive".

Of course the law would be the Junta law and absolute power under Article 44 over all Thai rights and liberties.

Prayut was the leader of a military coup that abolished the 2007 Constitution, subverted an elected government, and subjugated Thai sovereignty as a crimes against Thai society. The Junta's Interim Charter further protects any and all actions by the Junta and any of its agents from any prosecution as the law of the land.

How dare Prayuth hold the Thai people to any standard of respect for Junta law.

The nation will be lucky if the 2015Q2 hits 2.5%-3% growth.

Thailand just had a quarter of "negative GDP growth." Another quarter will offically put the nation into deflation and that will trigger a devaluation of the currency. Good for exports if Thailand can find substitutes for the US and EU. But in the face of out of control growing household debt, domestic consumption will cease as a contributing factor to GDP.

"Hurrying the case may result in the case being put at a disadvantage."

TRANSLATION

Secret interrogations are not yielding confessions and more time is needed.

If it was related to the British history, why would it be on Thai public property that clearly blocks public thoroughfare instead of embassy property? The location suggests a Thai related object, perhaps to commemorate the British embassy established in 1947.

"the panel is also tasked with further studying the 1997 and 2007 constitutions to find the defects that led to political crises in the past."

Shouldn't this examination have PRECEDED the drafting of the 2015 charter?

The 1997 Constitution had several defects from a military perspective:

"The Constitution is the highest law of the country. The provsion

of any law, act or decree which is contrary to or inconsistent

with this constitution shall be unenforceable [Article 6]."

"Rights and liberties endorsed by this Constitution explicitly or

implicitly, or by the Constitution Court, shall be protected and

legally bind Parliament, the Cabinet, courts, and other

government agencies in making, enforcing and interpreting laws

[Article 27]."

If the military can't be expected to respect the nation's constitution, how can the nation expect to respect a constitution created by the military? The military crafted 2007 constitution was passed in a public referendum by only 51%. Political conflict began from day one after the endorsement of the 2007 constitution.

"if exports grow by 0.4 percent, the growth rate will be 3.2 percent"

NO

Exports account for 70% of Thailand's GDP. If exports by value grow by only 0.4%, then 70% of the TOTAL GDP grows by 0.4% .

In order for the Total GDP growth rate to achieve 3.2%, the three factors of the Thai economy (domestic consumption, government spending, tourism) for the remaining 30% of the GDP must grow 10%. Domestic consumption is constrained by increasing historical levels of household debt; government investment in the economy has been restrained; and tourism is unpredictable at best. If any of the remaining economic three factors fall short of 10% growth, a higher growth rate beyond 10% must be achieved.

Unless exports drastically increase by mid-year 2015, Thailand is facing deflation.

"despite that they were the group of people who always rejected to enter legal process"

Since when do any of the Thai military coups follow any legal process? It would follow then that Prayut is a critic of his own NCPO group. He can tolerate his own criminal actions because he has justified them and gives the coup command amnesty for any and all its actions. And this is a basic problem for Thai society in that the military has placed itself above the sovereignty of the Thai people.

Lowering by another 25 basis points before summer was predictable, just not admittable by Sommai in January 2015. Everyone in Prayut's cabinet is desparately playing the game that the economy is improving thanks to the efforts of the Junta that brought the economy to the brink of collapse. The irony is that it is the strength of the US dollar that is proping up the value of the baht while the Junta's foreign policies seek to distance Thailand politically from the US.

The only thing one can be sure of is that anything the Prayut regime says will change. The only consistentcy the regime has had is the desire to hold into power under Article 44 and/or its surrogates in the draft charter for as long as possible. The military has unfettered access to the nation's treasury and, regardless of the collapsing Thai economy. It wants its payday for the coup: money and advanced military weapons.

The blast in Koh Samui last Friday night sent shockwaves not only through Koh Samui but also Phuket. However, ...Hotels in Koh Samui and Phuket were about 70 per cent sold out this week, compared to the average of 60 per cent in the other weeks of April.

So the bombing resulted in higher occupancy.

But then in a reversal: "If there had been no bombing ahead of Songkran, Thailand would have had more tourists,"

Does anyone in TAT remember their last words or do they really don't care what they say from moment to moment?

NRC, CDC, NLA approval or disapproval of the draft charter - who cares? It's all window dressing without a national referendum.

The NCPO led by Chief Prayut is the one to ulitmately decide what will be in the final 2015 draft charter. Prayut has also indicated he is willing to simply have the final draft endosed by [....] and put into law under Article 44.

The Junta can direct whatever economic policies it wants but it lacks any credibility and track-record to prove it understands the Thai economy and what is needed to recover.

"he [Deputy Transport Minister Arkhom] believes 3.5-per-cent growth in exports this year is possible even though the export sector has not seen much of a recovery because of the sluggish global economy."

Pure Junta propoganda.

Thailand will likely see the exports dropped by about 4 per cent from January to March due to weak demands in key markets, Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said. ..January saw the decline in exports by 3.7 per cent. The following month saw the drop of 6.1 per cent. And the downward trend would continue for last month’s exports. ThaiVisa News, April 9, 2015

"The JSCCIB yesterday lowered its export growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to "no more than 1 per cent", following Bank of Thailand's cut last month in its own forecast from 1 per cent to 0.8 per cent. " The Nation 2015-04-08

The Thai National Shippers Council recently changed its export growth target to zero expansion in 2015.

The Thai National Shippers Council recently changed its export growth target to zero expansion in 2015. The Nation 2015-04-08

Unfortunately, while the Thai people will have to suffer the consequences of an economy that is in the worse condition in 40 years, the Junta is planning on an arms weapons shopping spree with Russia after giving itself a 5% budget increase for fiscal year 2015, a 4% pay raise in 2014 and 2015. Life is good when you have absolute power.

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With a current account surplus it would not seem necessary to fire up the printing presses. But like all the other CBs they will....

Maybe the Junta will use the surplus to buy its wish list of arms from Russia? Otherwise, that purchase is likely to be off-budget for the 2015 fiscal year (Oct. 2014-Sept. 2015).

"This police officer has very close ties with a political group based in Thailand's three southern most provinces"

Suthep's Democrat political power base is in the South. What political group does the officer have ties with otherwise?

This arms deal raises some questions about the government's source of funds. Unless the Junta anticipated arms purchases from Russia in September 2014 when it submitted the government budget to the NLA, the puchase would be OFF BUDGET.

One can reasonably suspect that there was no budget for Russian arms purchases in the lack of any public disclosure of a budget. It was only later in 2014 after Ambassador Kenney's departure and after US Assistant Secretary of State Wilson's criticisms of the Junta in November 2014 that the Junta seemed to dramatically shift its military alliances towards the Russians and Chinese. It would appear then that the Junta will purchase stockpiled rubber using unbudgeted government funds from a Treasury that is already burdened by low tax collections, low value exports and fossil fuels, Junta cash handouts, Junta farmer subsidies, and some Junta minimal domestic investments in Thailand's infrastructure.

It would seem the Junta has placed its own needs for an arms buildup ahead of an economic recovery. Why? There is no immediate national security threat to Thailand from its neighbors, nor beyond within the Asian-Pacific theater. There is no arms race in the region other than distant North Korea. In fact several democratic nations such as Japan, South Korea, and India have indicated trade support with the Junta. So why the needs for "guns over butter?"

If there ever was a need for reform, it would be to keep the military on a short budget tether. But as the elected Thai governments found, the domestic threat of the military to Thailand is always present. How ironic that the Royal Thai Military swears to defend Thai sovereignty by taking that soverneignty for itself.

I'm sure a Yellow T-shirt would be appropriate as your award.

These abuses of the military and its partners paramilitary security forces will continue to increase due to the overall increasing paranoia of the coup leadership and lack of any civilian government moderation on military behavior. The military will do more to radicalize Malay-Thais than insurgents. So much for the military's Thung Yang Daeng model to pacify the South.

"Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has said the government's handling of violence in the deep South was more effective because it had been carried out in an integrated manner under a road map worked out under his guidelines." Maybe Prayut was using the roadmap for Chiang Mai or he had it upside down..

"Amorn said the BMA is likely to invest on the system and hires its own firm, Krungthep Thanakom, to run the system so that the BMA can set the fare rates."

Clear conflict of interest. And I thought transparency was the new buzz word in this Junta-led government.

Understand that Article 44 is the sole priviledge of the NCPO (albeit given to itself).

So this article should read, "The Ministry of Transport has been considering asking the NCPO for use of Section 44 to expedite its infrastructure projects."

And of couse when we say "asking the NCPO," it is the Chief of the NCPO General Prayut that makes the decision.

It will be interesting to see how far the Junta will take Article 44 into Thais' everyday life.

For example,

My toilet won't flush, can Prayut enact Article 44 to make it flush?