vinny41

On 5/21/2024 at 3:10 AM, goldenmile said:

Greeting all,

 

I am thinking about getting a new Subaru XV - in fact I've been thinking about it for a while now.

Now the prices seem to have come down to about 200,000 baht than they were last year - and I wonder why this should be?

 

Also does anyone have recent experience with this car and can share their opinion on it?

Many thanks in advance

Look at Subaru sales in Thailand over the past 13 years (2011-2024) before stopping car production in Thailand on December 30, 2024.

https://autolifethailand.tv/subaru-thailand-tan-chong-group/

Discount: Reduced price 280,000! Special price Subaru Forester Minorchange: 1,170,000 – 1,450,000 baht (Thai assembly) or 0% interest for 72 months.

https://autolifethailand.tv/discount-special-price-subaru-forester-thailand-may-2024/

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

If the 30@30 dream should materialize, based on the 1.83 million vehicles produced in 2023, Thailand 🇹🇭 would either have to increase total vehicle production to 2.6 million (highly unlikely) or reduce ICE vehicle production to 1.28 million. Not much good news there for the Japanese producers.

 

Under its “30@30” policy, Thailand has issued a raft of incentives to boost EVs to 30% of total vehicle production by 2030.

I think you should look at the 30@30” policy more as an ambition rather than set in stone, I am sure when the policy was written the economy was in a much better position than the current position and people when they are formulating such policy always look in a single direction of economy going upwards never building in factors that the economy may dip or go in the opposite direction 

In 2008 the UK  government announced a plan that every property in the country would have smart meter fitted by 2019 and these smart meter would be zero cost to the end user  and would save the end user huge savings Energy costs

when the policy was launched smart meter required 2g and 3g telecommunications networks ( 4g and 5g weren't available at the time ) Currently 2g and 3g telecommunications networks are being decommissioned and those services will no longer be available

As of December 2023 t’s no secret that the UK’s smart meter rollout has been challenging. With the original 2019 deadline passed, the latest figure for smart meter penetration stands at 57%

https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/smart-meters/with-the-new-energy-act-the-uk-smart-meter-rollout-is-at-a-technological-crunch-point/

Now if a Government can't deliver on a policy within a timeframe that adds zero cost to the end user

what are chances of success where a policy adds hundreds of thousand baht to the end user

People from the UK must remember when the  Government announced that Diesel was the cleaner  fuel of the future and were advising everyone to swap their petrol cars for diesel

Dash for diesel

Why officials in Labour government pushed 'dash for diesel'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41985715

On 5/25/2024 at 8:22 AM, Topah said:

This car does not need to be registered. Its value is just for shipping stuff inside. I can sell it for spare parts or waste it. I can drive it to container in Bangkok amd from destination port to final destination. 

here is a thread from 2016 on the same subject

In most countries  in Europe you would need to obtain a car passport

A Carnet de Passages en Douanes is an internationally recognised Customs document entitling the holder to TEMPORARILY import a vehicle duty-free into certain countries, which normally require a deposit against import charges for such vehicles (generally countries outside Europe). The Carnet is used within the legal framework of the UN Customs Conventions of 1954 & 1956, and the ‘Convention on Temporary Admission’ (1990), the so called ‘Istanbul Convention’

https://www.carseurope.net/carnet-de-passage-en-douanes-cpd/

On issuing a Carnet, a Carnet holder becomes directly responsible for the payment of customs duties and taxes if the regulations concerning temporary import are infringed.

In order to take on this responsibility, CARS requires the applicant to meet a number of conditions: they must be able to give a full postal address and provide a legible copy of their passport, vehicle registration document/certificate and driving licence (paper form and photocard).

The applicant must also provide a security amount in the form of either a non-refundable insurance indemnity or a part-refundable deposit guarantee. A percentage of the deposit guarantee will be charged to cover administration and bank fees.

Most countries will ask you to provide a deposit for you vehicle which will be refunded once you leave the country

There is a couple travelling the world from the UK in a Ford transit van youtube TREAD the globe

when they entered Malaysia they were asked to provide £15,500 for the Malaysian carnet which is refundable once the vehicle leaves  Malaysia

so the idea of wasting the vehicle or selling it for spares is a non-starter 

20 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

There is not much Srettha can do if the Chinese EV manufacturers flood a shrinking domestic Thai market with cheap EVs.

Don't Japanese nationals already get 90 days visa except on arrival? This seems a very insignificant gesture. 

 

Meanwhile, the Japanese leader asked if Thailand could boost travel convenience by offering Japanese investors visa-free entry.

it seems the visa free entry is already in place

Thailand approves 30-day visa exemption for Japanese businesspeople

https://thailand.go.th/issue-focus-detail/thailand-approves-30-day-visa-exemption-for-japanese-businesspeople

I guess doing business attending meetings, signing contracts on a tourist visa is not a wise thing do to

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

Whilst I agree with most of your post about China, I disagree that Thailand should protect its Japanese dominated auto manufacturing industry. It will be in decline for the next 15 years.

 

EV uptake is not only inevitable, it’s government mandated across the major auto markets.

 

If Thailand doesn’t grasp it’s share it will be taken up by other Asian countries.

 

in an ideal world, the existing Japanese auto makers here would be leading the EV revolution.

 

They failed to notice it was coming and invest accordingly and now it’s too late.  I detest Tesla because it’s run on the whim of one man.  Unfortunately, until last year Toyota was the same run by Akio Toyoda who hates EV’s with a passion.  Consequently their big bucks are going into lobbying against EV uptake as was posted here last week. 
 

Thailand has done exactly the right thing by attracting EV automakers to Thailand, it’s sad that only the Chinese took them up on their offer.

It looks like that Thailand has made the correct decision by supporting both ICE and EV manufacturing in Thailand

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has assured Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida that Thailand will not abandon Japanese makers of conventional vehicles during its transition to an electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturing hub.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40032908

At the moment more needs to done to bring the EV supply chain on board in Thailand

As stated before majority of jobs and domestic added value is currently in existing ICE  manufacturing not EV

52 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Wow, that is some eye-watering lofty numbers. Hopefully just a translation error, but I like how BYD use future tense about 2023.

 

Mr. Yubin Ke, General Manager of BYD Auto (Thailand) Co., Ltd., said that in 2023 BYD will be the world's number 1 selling new energy vehicle manufacturer and has cumulative sales worldwide of more than 7. million vehicles in March 2024.

There is a US think tank that thinks the EU should slap import tariffs of between 50-55%

https://rhg.com/research/aint-no-duty-high-enough/

While the numbers may seem eye watering current tariffs on EU cars exported to Thailand is 80%

13 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

Wuling Air EV

The entire vehicle is imported from Indonesia (PT SGMW Motor Indonesia) by EV Primus Company Limited. It comes with a quality guarantee for the vehicle and battery for 5 years or 50,000 kilometers.

https://www.headlightmag.com/2023-06-29-official-price-wuling-air-ev-thailand/

9 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

There is a mini-ev due to be launched in Thailand q3 2024

https://autolifethailand.tv/nex-dayun-ev-mini-suv/

Just now, ExpatOilWorker said:

BYD will bypass EU tariffs by opening a plant in Turkey,  right?

Correct

Turkey is in negotiations with Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers BYD Co. and Chery Automobile Co Ltd. for factory investments in the country, a step that could help the companies boost sales to Europe, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

“We would like to complete the talks as soon as possible. We have come a long way with both of them,” Minister of Industry and Technology Fatih Kaçır told Bloomberg in an interview in Ankara. Separate negotiations with SAIC Motor Corp., which owns MG, and Great Wall Motor Co. are also underway, he said.

https://www.turkishminute.com/2024/05/18/turkey-had-talk-with-chinese-ev-manufacturer-for-factory-investments-report/

4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Good point, the sneaky Chinese will probably set up local companies themselves, stick 4 Thai made tyres on and call it Made in Thailand 🇹🇭. 

However, it is worth noticing that all those plans were made 2-3 years ago when the EV hype was in overdrive. With falling sales numbers, who will take that export?

BYD is also setting up a factory in Indonesia, so they will produce locally. 

Expect EU will slap tariffs of between 30-40% on Chinese vehicles  before July 4th 2024

European Commission warns BYD, SAIC and Geely that their lack of cooperation frees its hands to impose higher penalties, letters seen by POLITICO show.

The letters, addressed to EV makers BYD, SAIC and Geely and all dated April 23, reach the same conclusion: that the trio did not provide enough information on subsidies, operations and supply chains.

Working without these inputs, the Commission says, means it will need to revert to the concept of “facts available.” This usually means, in practice, that it has a free hand to slap higher duties on the imported products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-electric-vehicle-uncooperative-probe-european-commission-letters/

US markets are off limits due to 100% tariffs

16 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

IIRC the whole idea behind the government’s scheme to entice Chinese EV manufacturers here is to get them manufacturing for export.

 

I’m sure they have plans to source the required local content here, they are probably already opening those “local” companies to do that.

Its something that they were discussing last week all EV manufacturers know if they want to export via FTA agreements 40% local content is a requirement for now

https://www.thaipr.net/business/3473532

7 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Where does the 40% number come from? It seems rather low.

With BYD sales falling below 1,000 vehicles/month they need exports for that plant to make sense.

 

If a Chinese car meets the 40% local content requirement and is certified as originating from Thailand, it will be exported within and outside the ASEAN region through the ASEAN FTA network.

https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market

The 40% is the current minimum requirement I am sure that % number will increase over time

If you look at the EU-UK  TCA which applies to EU selling EV to UK and vice versa

The post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) says that, to qualify for zero tariffs, at least 55% of the value of EVs needs to be from the European Union or Britain, with values of 65% for battery cells and modules and 70% for battery packs

However, it contains two transition periods, the first with EVs requiring 40% local content and battery packs and components 30%, the second for 2024-2026 at 45% for EVs, 50% for battery cells and modules and 60% for battery packs.

Import tariffs of 10% apply for EVs falling short of those requirements.

The Commission's proposal is to extend the first transition period for three years to 2027, when the full local content requirements of the TCA will apply.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-delay-tighter-rules-electric-vehicle-trade-with-britain-2023-12-06/

36 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Have you seen an update as to when the BYD factory will open in Thailand?

Earlier reports suggested Q2 this year, but with only June left that is highly unlikely to happen.

BYD's sales locally has dropped significantly so if they want to produce 150,000 cars annually they will have to achieve the 40% really fast to export their way out.

 

BYD's EV plant in Thailand to start production in Q3 2024

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/29/byd-ev-plant-thailand-to-start-production-q3/

I did see a news item last week which showed people queuing for job interviews

It will be interesting to see how the negotiations go with Thailand and EU on FTA

as normal the EU looks at FTA more than just trade they want to see changes in the country as well on various issues that have nothing to do with trade

I am sure the mindset of some European countries with FTA agreements is to recreate the past of European missionaries want countries to adopt European Values

https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/30/empowering-democracy-through-the-eu-thai-trade-agreement/#:~:text=Thailand aims to finalise a,trade interests and democratic values.

2 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

But having ICEV factories with 90% local content AND EV factories with 30% local content is even better, no?  It's going back to the either /  or thing.

This article explains it very well

If the "40% local content" requirement cannot be met, the majority of BEVs produced in Thailand will remain in the domestic market. If there is an oversupply, the entire market will be affected if discount sales become rampant, similar to what happened in China.

If a Chinese car meets the 40% local content requirement and is certified as originating from Thailand, it will be exported within and outside the ASEAN region through the ASEAN FTA network. This will lead to direct competition between automobile companies in destination countries and Chinese cars originating in Thailand. In any case, the Asian automotive industry is undergoing a major transition.

https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market

30% local content = limited export markets 40% local content = greater export markets

8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Thailand has done an excellent job of signing up Chinese EV makers, for both domestic consumption and export.

For the export market Indonesian seems to be ahead of the game regarding 40% local content

In August this year, Indonesia announced a two-year extension for automakers to meet eligibility requirements for electric vehicle incentives. With the newly introduced, more lenient investment regulations, automakers can pledge the production of a minimum of 40 percent EV components in Indonesia by 2026 to be eligible for incentives.

https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/indonesia-market-prospects-for-electric-vehicles-sales-manufacturing-investments/

On 5/25/2024 at 3:30 AM, vinny41 said:

From The Thai economics point of view ICE vehicles made in Thailand  provide more jobs and generated more revenue than an EV made in Thailand as the local content i.e made in Thailand for a Toyota Hilux is 90% compared to an EV made in Thailand where local content is 30% majority of parts for EV's are imported in from China

The domestic value added (domestic value add) that Thailand will receive from the production of 1 EV car is much lower than the production of ICE cars due to having to rely on importing key parts from abroad. Meanwhile, in the original product group that Thailand can produce, it is likely that prices will have to be reduced in order to compete with Chinese entrepreneurs. Because Chinese companies can import directly from China at a much lower cost than Thailand. As a result, even if an EV car factory is established in Thailand, the benefits that Thailand will receive from car production will be less than in the past.

https://brandinside.asia/car24-layoff-2024/

3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

My point stands that It is not an either or situation for ICE versus EV, Thailand can do both which was not what you appeared to be saying.

My original post never stated that

what I posted was

From The Thai economics point of view ICE vehicles made in Thailand  provide more jobs and generated more revenue than an EV made in Thailand as the local content i.e made in Thailand for a Toyota Hilux is 90% compared to an EV made in Thailand where local content is 30% majority of parts for EV's are imported in from China

Currently 30% local content for EV vs 90% local content for ICE vehicles Its simply the domestic value added in the form of value and jobs is greater for ICE vehicles than of EV's

18 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

It's not a case of Thailand makes ICE cars OR Thailand makes EV's.

 

Thailand has pushed hard to be a hub of auto manufacturing of ICE vehicles.  Nobody is suggesting those should close and Thailand instead switch to EV manufacturing.

 

Thailand has recognised that governments worldwide are moving away from ICE towards EV's and ultimately that ICE market will disappear. Thailand has said "We want some of that EV manufacturing, not only do we want some of that, we want ALL of that in Asia".  This is all happening alongside ICE manufacture.  Thailand has tied up the major Chinese EV brands to manufacture here.  It's too late for Vietnam, Cambodia et al to try and muscle in.

 

Do you not think that at some point, EV's will be taxed higher than they are currently?  I do.  And Thailand will have something to replace the disappearing ICE manufacturing.

 

 

 

The one thing about EV's is that they are most definitely not boring.  With 530 hp on tap and available instantaneously with 4WD and 0-100 acceleration of times under 4 seconds, they are tantalisingly exciting. 1.6M baht gets you a car that will show a BMW M5 or Benz C63s a clean pair of heels.  That 530 hp is there throughout the rev range, it's probably equivalent to a 650 hp petrol engine.

 

I do agree with you about the Tesla center screen.  Center screens are ok for infotainment but not for displaying speed and other important driver information. Indicators, wipers, lights etc should be in stalks as they are on every other mass produced car.

 

 

Absolutely spot on.  True all over the world, not just Thais.

There no chance of Thailand taking all of the EV Asia market as countries such as India, China, Indonesia ,Japan ,South Korea and Turkey are not going to hand over their automotive industry to Thailand of all of their automotive industries. A number of these countries already have FTA agreements with the Europe where they have to follow Rules of  origin and agree on  common rules on government subsidies

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Japan-and-EU-to-unify-subsidy-rules-for-EVs-solar-panels

In this BOI  Opportunities and Support Measures for EV Activities it states No local content requirements

https://www.boi.go.th/upload/content/20230706 EN BOI_.pdf

This year it was announced Thailand announces additional criteria for battery powered electric vehicles produced in Free Zones

Local content threshold: Goods produced must meet a minimum 40% local/ASEAN content threshold

https://globaltaxnews.ey.com/news/2024-0381-thailand-announces-additional-criteria-for-battery-powered-electric-vehicles-produced-in-free-zones

Yes Thailand will be a major player in  ev manufacturing within the ASEAN Member Countries but I think they will have to share the EV market with Indonesia since they have access to

The country is the world’s leading producer of nickel, a crucial ingredient in the production of lithium-ion batteries, which are the predominant choice for EV battery packs. Indonesia’s nickel reserves account for approximately 22-24 percent of the global total. Additionally, the country has access to cobalt, which extends the lifespan of EV batteries, and bauxite, used in aluminum production, a key element in EV manufacturing. This ready access to raw materials can potentially reduce production costs by a substantial margin

https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/indonesia-market-prospects-for-electric-vehicles-sales-manufacturing-investments/

Audi and Porsche are recalling 6,676 electric vehicles due to a potential fire risk. At the heart of the issue is a possible leak inside of the battery that could lead to arcing and then a thermal event. Audi and Porsche plan to have dealers inspect each car and then go to the costly measure of replacing the entire battery if needed.

According to Porsche, it first became aware of this issue back in 2022 due to reports of “reduced insulation values” in some Taycan batteries.

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/09/porsche-taycan-and-audi-e-tron-gt-recalled-over-potential-fire-risk/

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Two months ago, S&P downgraded Nissan's credit rating to Junk, I think you would need to be very brave to buy a Nissan currently.

Some Brands manage to recover from Junk status

10 years ago Tesla was down graded to Junk

https://money.cnn.com/2014/05/28/investing/tesla-junk-bond-rating/

Same applies to Ford and GM 

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Still avoiding my question

 

Not aware of any forum rules that state that all posters must answer BKK Brian questions

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

You said I didn't like it? Why?

I don't recall posting you didn't like it 

I posted "If you not happy with the Title Thread suggest you take that up with the Op