IsaanT

Sentiment drives markets. And Time, but that's a whole different discussion. 🙂

OK, I relent. Here it is, using quarterly bars. I haven't used this charting package for years and my Dow data only goes up to 2000 so doesn't show the recent meteoric climb but that doesn't matter for the purposes of this discussion. Look closely at the vertical scale on the right hand side and you'll see how logarithmic charts can extract detail out of relatively small movements (which are caused by the effects of inflation over time, i.e. a 25 point move 50 years ago would have been a big thing). I've added a few key dates. And, no, I won't be adding my EW interpretation because that will likely cause an interminable (and tedious) debate to which there is no definitive right answer. The point of posting this chart is to show you that there is, indeed, a very discernible characteristic visible in the chart for 1929 (not the flat line that a linear chart shows). p.s. I've added the linear chart of the same data underneath so any interested bystanders have a clue what we're talking about.

If you've seen it in logarithmic scale but can't see what I've described, there's not a lot of point in me showing you the same chart because I can anticipate that you'll still fail to see it. In fairness, as you may have stated, EW is an art of interpretation, less so a science (although there are many firm rules and characteristics which most ignore or overlook, at their cost). I'm happy to agree to differ on this. Thanks for making the effort to look.

OK, thanks for replying. From your earlier comments, do I understand correctly that you'll be concerned if the Dow goes below 30,000 (or the 28,244 support on the 12-year ema, as you stated)? I'm presuming you must have seriously long-term funds if you're looking for support on a 12 year average. Given the last three days' action, would it be better for you to sit it out on the sidelines in case it does, indeed, get worse? I'm happy to disclose that I learned a lot of lessons in the tech share boom of 1999/2000. I made a shedload of money (on paper) and lost most of it (on paper) hanging on from the peak in April 2000 while I waited for it to go back up again, which it never did. I started with £20K of my own money in September 1999 and I had £334K (on paper) in April 2000. The wife had a new Mercedes for Christmas, my kids had great presents, and I bought a new car and another aeroplane for myself in the spring of 2000 before what remained evaporated so I came out on top. However, I was following some forums at the time and I winced when I read some posters saying things like "I've mortgaged the house to be in on this - I'm going to be rich!". I know some lost more than just their shirts. FOMO is an insidious evil. Better to live to fight another day. I did say my risk appetite is lower now than it used to be... 😉

Serious question. I'm curious - do you have money at stake in the markets, which might explain your unconditionally bullish stance? FWIW, I don't. I'm retired so my risk appetite is lower than it used to be.

Really? A hillbilly vice-president (unelected to post) embarrasses a visiting sovereign president (elected to post) live in front of cameras, and then Trump joins in. Disgraceful. Trump also has this unexplained affection for the corrupt dictator Putin. Why hasn't Trump slapped Putin down for obvious obfuscation and delay when he was so quick to disrespect Zelenskyy? And why did he cut off supplies and intelligence for a week when Russia was reporting that it had nearly encircled the Ukrainian troops in Kursk? Despicable. I won't die a happy man if I don't find out what is behind the Trump-Putin affection. It will come out sooner or later.

You're right. Blame anyone but him for the current chaos. His facade of arrogant competence ("Trump was right about everything") has nearly run its course and he will eventually have nowhere to hide. Like karma, it is taking longer than some of us would like but it will get there eventually. The problem for so many is that the damage will already have been done.

I remember Black Monday. Conversely, after such a hard fall this week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few relatively quiet days next week, going slightly back up again. If so, I expect many here to confidently proclaim something like 'a healthy correction has now been completed, and normal service has been resumed'. Then, very shortly after, perhaps around the middle of the month, they'll be caught out as the new trend down resumes... The majority of retail traders lose (71%, according to IG Index). Reading some of the inane statements in this thread reminds me why.

You're right. For clarity, I wasn't implying that anyone should be trading this - I was just passing on the good news that it's likely that we'll get a bit more purchasing power as the year goes on, as the thread is about the recent Baht weakness.

Here are today's forecasts for the Thai baht for the rest of the year. N.B. These forecasts are dynamic and change on a daily basis but the general trend is clear.

The Dow closed at 38,314 a few minutes ago. It lost 2,231 points, a 5.50% fall in one session (it is historically exciting times so I set my alarm to see where things ended at the final bell). Your failure to accept what is happening is undoubtedly your loss. I would prefer that you look at your own data on your own platform with your own eyes and draw your own conclusion with your own brain. I would hope that would remove any potential concerns you might have about possible misrepresentation or misinterpretation by some random guy you've never met spouting some fantastic nonsense. I think the rest of us can easily predict your response to any further information I offer. @Harrisfan also states that he knows about Elliott Wave theory. Perhaps you could get an independent second opinion from him. Lastly, of greater concern is your failure to actually understand my request. This now illustrates that you don't know as much as you would like to think you do. Only the strong survive. Be careful out there.

Put your chart in logarithmic mode and then look again. Linear mode (as used on your chart) is inappropriate for such a long period.

In actual fact, "Don Giovanni" is a reincarnation and has been here on this forum forever (or so it seems).

Yep, anything for a happy life. 🙂

Nope, I've done my own research. We're clearly not on the same page so I'm withdrawing from this conversation.

I tried...

I'll give you two more suggestons to help you. Firstly, as Michael Schumacher used to say of his own legacy, records are there to be broken. So why do you appear to suggest they are not? Secondly, as a simple primer, go and learn about Elliott Waves as an expression of stock market movement. You may or may not choose to believe in them but many professionals do - just saying. And you may then start to see that 1929's 'Great Depression' was just wave 2...

I'd be really grateful if you could provide some meaningful justification for your opinion. Otherwise, it just appears to be an uninformed kneejerk expression of your entrenched opinion, and that doesn't show you in a good light, does it? Come on, you can do better than this. p.s. I value @spidermike007's contributions to these forums, too.

@Harrisfan, there was a useful thread here recently that covers a lot of the main points in our discussion today. It is: It's quite long but there are some knowledgeable contributors so you may find it of interest (as an example, I have a lot of time for @Walker88's opinions).

You are correct and it did, indeed, appear to be a great depression. The coming one will dwarf it. I could explain why but there are some very entrenched opinions here and I have no wish to provoke or upset people. I also try to bring something useful in my posts because expounding my opinion for its own sake is such a meaningless exercise (it would be even more so if it was uninformed). There are some very bright people here who broadly concur with me about the general direction of travel (although the specifics that I have stated are obviously difficult to comment on because nobody has a crystal ball, do they?).

You are entitled to your opinion, and I respect that. However, elephants have long memories and so do I. I might ask you where you stand on this later this year. And, as you are self-evidently much younger than me, we can talk about it again in 2041.

I've always thought you were a smart contributor, and I continue to believe this.

I do think many years ahead. In five year's time the current stock markets will be trashed. For example, you can only hope that the S&P500 stops at 1,000. But it won't. All other global markets and indicies will be affected in a similar manner. Furthermore, as I recently stated here on another thread, the global recession will last a minimum of 16 years. I'm only 65, and my smartwatch tells me I have a physical age of 55, so I expect to come out the other side; many here won't. I don't say these things to alarm anyone or feel pleased about myself - my hope is to make people think and do their own research. This is not a time for complacency about personal finances, particularly for those of us who are retired. As for anyone who says these drops are presenting great opportunities to buy on the dips, please advise us all when the dips have reached the bottom and you're going to dive back in again so we can all observe quietly from the sidelines (clue: the professionals call it 'catching falling knives').

Have you seen the FTSE today...? Sure, there will be some moves back up from time to time but look to see if they are impulsive or retracements. The trend hasn't become fully established yet - it will be unmistakeable when it does.

In principle I would agree with you - dividend income is typically much less risky than seeking asset gains. However, you will recognise that there are some assumptions in your statement. Firstly, if global economies shrink (and we go into a recession), the chances of a dividend being maintained at current levels diminishes. Trump's actions are taking us there rapidly. Secondly, I have strong reasons to believe we are about to enter a global recession, and it will last a long time. As the average age of forum members is quite high, we all may not see share prices recover to previous levels in our lifetimes. Again, Trump's actions - aided by Rachel Reeves in my home country - are taking us there. FWIW, Wise is currently giving me 3.96% interest which exceeds Thailand's 2023 inflation rate of 1.23% so that's my safe haven for instant access funds now.