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Moruya

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Posts posted by Moruya

  1. Yaowapa certainly casts a large enough shadow to put Yingluck in the umbra and you'd certainly have to agree that there can be fewer political families on this earth that have more shadowy dealing than this bunch.

    I guess what the article is saying is that Yaowapa is an insurance policy. If Yingluck gets convicted then there's one on the bench.

    Papa Doc Duvalier springs to mind but the Ton Ton Macout would have to become Red Shirts to draw a more complete analogy.

    Or the BiB I guess.

  2. The transaction happened 4 years before she even entered politics. In which western country would this even make headlines. There is a very good chance that the company entered the loan a year later to avoid taxes. The ombudsman can only make recommendations and hold no real power. The opposition is clutching at straws as YS popularity increases with time. Its only fair that the NACC investigates all cases on both sides so lets wait and see the results.

    A loan would affect neither the profit nor the balance sheet positively - it would be subject to interest payments which would reduce the tax bill

  3. Yaowapa certainly casts a large enough shadow to put Yingluck in the umbra and you'd certainly have to agree that there can be fewer political families on this earth that have more shadowy dealing than this bunch.

    I guess what the article is saying is that Yaowapa is an insurance policy. If Yingluck gets convicted then there's one on the bench.

  4. Nicely written article that explains very simply the risk of overheating in various markets.

    I wonder how many of the condo purchases were 1st time buyers looking for their tax break and how many defaults will occur in 2013 resulting in excessive property being placed back on the market thus driving the number of empty condos for sale and at the same time driving prices down?

    Thai stocks have obviously benefitted from the US and European economies flagging as well as the USD, JPY and EUR interest rates being chopped to near zero. However the US stock markets are now on the increase and the economy is on the up. Europe will eventually follow suit and the investments in Thailand will be reversed resulting in a buyers' market and pushing share prices down. Is an increase in the SET index of 300% in 4 years realistic? We'll see.

    Obviously money flooding in to invest in the 2 items above results in a strong Baht and when it floods out that will reverse.

    As far as the economy is concerned, unemployment is on the rise, exports are on the way down, imports are on the up. The large infrastructure projects will almost certainly result in further pressure on the balance of payments and further government debt. With the rice fiasco continuing I can see the Thai debt growing from 40% of GDP under this regime to appproaching 100% before its term is complete. The increase in the minimum wage and energy prices will continue to drive up inflation.

    I certainly agree with most of your comments, except where you say unemployment is on the rise. True, because of the cost of the minimum wage, some jobs will be lost as some business' just can't afford it. On the other side, too many business' are telling me that they can not find needed employees, so I imagine there is a home for many of these folks, if not all. If the construction industry does collapse on a bubble, as it did in the US, you will certainly see unemployment rise through the roof. Even in Thailand, this is a good paying job, and the effect will be felt nationwide.

    If you can make head or tail of this it might help http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/tab16.pdf

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