Investment in Thai Lottery "Fund" through a bank

[Sirbergan]

For a country with this level of corruption, Brunolem does raise a voice of actual concern.

[Sirbergan]

9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

My calculation was only for the big prize.

Obviously the odds are better for the lower prizes, yet not too high.

Winning 1 million is great...on a 500,000 baht investment...what a return!

It's a bit weird that you have a bigger chance of winning 10 million than 1, and this being a completely unofficial draw there is no way to ensure no corruption is going on.

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, chickenslegs said:

 

Anyway, thanks to the OP and others who have explained this lottery. I have a sum of money set aside for my granddaughters future education - I am tempted to invest it with the GSB lottery.

Given the actual ultra low interest rates, this form of investment (which I had never heard of before today) may be worth a try.

 

Interest rates are poised to rise, starting in the US, but Asian economies are in much better shape and shouldn't be impacted, at least not too quickly.

 

Now, if things were to get out of control (major crisis as in 2008), then all bets would be off, and talking about bets...better safe with the lottery than sorry with some exotic investment...

[chickenslegs]

43 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Well, if I remember my probabilities courses from long ago, the number of combinations of 7 digits out of 10 possible digits is 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3 = 1,814,400

And then there are the 42 possible Thai letters, which gives us 1,814,400 x42 = 76,204,800 combinations!

The odds of winning are ridiculously small!

 

I have too much time on my hands ...

 

Surely, the highest 7-digit number is 9,999,999 - so there are a possible 10 million combinations (including 0,000,000). Then there are 42 Thai letters (if they use them all), giving a total of 420,000,000 combinations.

 

I'm standing by to be corrected.

[jackdd]

46 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Well, if I remember my probabilities courses from long ago, the number of combinations of 7 digits out of 10 possible digits is 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3 = 1,814,400

And then there are the 42 possible Thai letters, which gives us 1,814,400 x42 = 76,204,800 combinations!

The odds of winning are ridiculously small!

 

It's too late now to do serious math so i won't produce the right calculation now, but your calculation has to be somehow wrong, the chance has to be even much smaller than what you calculated.

Because with your 72mio the ROI just with the first prize (they say 3 per month with means 30mio per month) would be something like 30000000/76204800 = 0.4THB per ticket per month which would be 0.4/50*100*12 = 9.6% ROI just for the first prize

Edited February 25, 2018 by jackdd

[chickenslegs]

10 minutes ago, jackdd said:

It's too late now to do serious math so i won't produce the right calculation now, but your calculation has to be somehow wrong, the chance has to be even much smaller than what you calculated.

Because with your 72mio the ROI just with the first prize (they say 3 per month with means 30mio per month) would be something like 30000000/76204800 = 0.4THB per ticket per month which would be 0.4/50*100*12 = 9.6% ROI just for the first prize

I'm thinking that Brunolem's calculation was for combinations of 7 "different" digits - not allowing for digits to be repeated.

 

In any case, if (as stated) the prizes are all awarded every month, it is certain that only the issued numbers are entered into the draw. Unless we know how many numbers have been issued it is not possible to calculate the odds.

Edited February 25, 2018 by chickenslegs
clarity

[blackcab]

10 minutes ago, Sirbergan said:

...and this being a completely unofficial draw there is no way to ensure no corruption is going on.

 

Please read the thread before posting incorrect and uninformed comments that make you look quite dense.

 

The lottery is an official product of the Government Savings Bank - a bank 100 per cent owned by the Government.

[Sirbergan]

Just now, blackcab said:

 

Please read the thread before posting incorrect and uninformed comments that make you look quite dense.

 

The lottery is an official product of the Government Savings Bank - a bank 100 per cent owned by the Government.

So is it based on the draw on the 16th? Or are you saying that a bank owned by the government is to be trusted 100%, even if the draws are not official?

[jackdd]

5 minutes ago, chickenslegs said:

In any case, if (as stated) the prizes are all awarded every month, it is certain that only the issued numbers are entered into the draw.

I think blackcab did not mean that all prizes are awarded every month, but just that somebody wins something every month. Maybe you can specify this blackcab

[theguyfromanotherforum]

My wife has a few million in that account and has been playing for half a decade. Personally, I think she'd be better off with a regular savings account. She did win a few 10k and 5k prizes.

[blackcab]

1 minute ago, Sirbergan said:

So is it based on the draw on the 16th? Or are you saying that a bank owned by the government is to be trusted 100%, even if the draws are not official?

 

Please read the thread for your answers.

 

If the bank/product is not to be trusted then why would I invest in it? I'm nobody's fool.

[jackdd]

2 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

My wife has a few million in that account and has been playing for half a decade. Personally, I think she'd be better off with a regular savings account. She did win a few 10k and 5k prizes.

If you have some free time it would be nice if you can calculate how much interest she effectively got per year

[Sirbergan]

4 minutes ago, blackcab said:

 

Please read the thread for your answers.

 

If the bank/product is not to be trusted then why would I invest in it? I'm nobody's fool.

That's a non-answer, not addressing the basis of my question as I've been played for a fool before. Is there a good reason to trust their draws, when most Thai people doubt the legitimacy of the official lottery?

Edited February 25, 2018 by Sirbergan
Typo

[blackcab]

5 minutes ago, jackdd said:

I think blackcab did not mean that all prizes are awarded every month, but just that somebody wins something every month. Maybe you can specify this blackcab

 

All possible prizes are awarded each month. So 3 x 10 million each month, etc.

 

 

[theguyfromanotherforum]

6 minutes ago, jackdd said:

If you have some free time it would be nice if you can calculate how much interest she effectively got per year

 

On top of my head, most months she "wins" between 100 and 500 baht, plus the big prize is maybe 20,000 a year, so I'd say 25,000 a month for 2 million in savings. I guess it's the thrill of checking the numbers....

 

Edit

Corrected the numbers.....

Edited February 25, 2018 by theguyfromanotherforum

[Sirbergan]

4 minutes ago, blackcab said:

 

All possible prizes are awarded each month. So 3 x 10 million each month, etc.

 

 

I'm not at all trying to put you on the spot here, and I know you're just trying to explain, so I'm simply asking to satisfy my curiosity.  Sorry if it comes off as me trying to be too negative.

[blackcab]

10 minutes ago, Sirbergan said:

That's a non-answer, not addressing the basis of my question as I've been played for a fool before. Is there a good reason to trust their draws, when most Thai people doubt the legitimacy of the official lottery?

 

Pop along to the GSB head office on Phaholyothin Road on the afternoon of the 16th. Ask to watch the draw.

 

I've never been, so it would be good to find out how it all happens.

 

If it's completely bent it would be good to know.

[Sirbergan]

2 minutes ago, blackcab said:

 

Pop along to the GSB head office on Phaholyothin Road on the afternoon of the 16th. Ask to watch the draw.

 

I've never been, so it would be good to find out how it all happens.

 

If it's completely bent it would be good to know.

So there is a draw you can watch? Asking me to go to Bangkok is futile, I have 16 employees out of which 14 has never seen my face. I utterly hate the place, speak Isaan and can't wait to get out of Bangkok once I get there :D

[Aussieroaming]

Wife and MIL have about 600 K baht in this lottery crap, earns JS. I think my wife got 120 baht last month.  

 

wife has about 6 Mill in the SET, earns about 150-200k/month, based on the last 12 months. She has traded for about 7 years and can play the stocks very well, her return is impressive.

 

she has a significant amount in Kasikorn earning a pittance (50k for 6 months). Probably 8 times more than the SET, not sure but it earns nothing worthwhile. I've tried to convince her to load it into the SET but she won't, scared of losing it.

 

but based on her record I would go the SET anytime. I wanted to trade but I think the SET drivers are different to the west, so my trading mentality would be wrong. She trades on volumes, she watches volumes and decides if it's being manipulated or genuine interest. I don't pretend to understand her logic but she seems to get results.

[jackdd]

7 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

Wife and MIL have about 600 K baht in this lottery crap, earns JS. I think my wife got 120 baht last month.  

 

wife has about 6 Mill in the SET, earns about 150-200k/month, based on the last 12 months. She has traded for about 7 years and can play the stocks very well, her return is impressive.

 

she has a significant amount in Kasikorn earning a pittance (50k for 6 months). Probably 8 times more than the SET, not sure but it earns nothing worthwhile. I've tried to convince her to load it into the SET but she won't, scared of losing it.

 

but based on her record I would go the SET anytime. I wanted to trade but I think the SET drivers are different to the west, so my trading mentality would be wrong. She trades on volumes, she watches volumes and decides if it's being manipulated or genuine interest. I don't pretend to understand her logic but she seems to get results.

It seems you have no idea how trading works and what are the theories behind it. So you better don't advise your wife to do stupid decisions, you are lucky that she is not listening to you

If you want to understand why you wife is not doing what you suggest you should read about "bankroll management", add the term "trading" to it if it only shows things about poker, but the theory is the same for poker and trading.

And while you are at it you could also read about "variance", then you understand that even over 12 months you can simply have luck (which your wife obviously had a lot of considering her ROI). I don't mean that her earnings are based solely on luck, but a combination of skill and luck.

Edited February 25, 2018 by jackdd

[Bob12345]

Now that it becomes clear what we are actually talking about i must say my kids (1 year old) also have some money in this.

For their birth people gave gold or money, and one person gave a "participation" in this scheme.

 

Basically it pays very low interest (given its a government loan, so dont compare the interest with what banks offer you) and gives you a tiny chance on winning a big extra.

Perfect for Thais who don't understand inflation but do like the lottery, chance, and "good luck".

 

While there is a chance for fraud, I would like to think the government tries to keep this honest as it saves them tons of money in interest payments.

But you never know in Thailand of course, as everything is so corrupted here.

Not something to be too worried about as the chance of winning the "jackpot" is so small anyways i doubt they will steal it the day my kids would win.

[simoh1490]

I don't think fraud is an issue, people who think it is are probably paranoid about fraud in all aspects of everything Thai.

 

No, the big issue is the lock-in period of three years during which interest rates will almost certainly move, that and the low guaranteed rate of return which is only relative to today's base rate. As said previously, this is almost a guarantee to lose money with a very slim statistical chance of beating the rate of bank savings interest rates today. Having said those things, somebody has to win the big prize and people sometimes need that little bit of hope in their lives which in itself can be fun at times.

[Brunolem]

12 hours ago, chickenslegs said:

I'm thinking that Brunolem's calculation was for combinations of 7 "different" digits - not allowing for digits to be repeated.

That's correct...

 

Now, if digits could be repeated, allowing for 10 million combinations, what would be the point of adding a letter and thus lower the odds to 1 in 420,000,000?

 

To make a comparison, the French very successful Loto has 14,000,000 combinations and offers prizes way higher than 10,000,000 baht...more like 10,000,000 euros.

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

Wife and MIL have about 600 K baht in this lottery crap, earns JS. I think my wife got 120 baht last month.  

 

wife has about 6 Mill in the SET, earns about 150-200k/month, based on the last 12 months. She has traded for about 7 years and can play the stocks very well, her return is impressive.

 

she has a significant amount in Kasikorn earning a pittance (50k for 6 months). Probably 8 times more than the SET, not sure but it earns nothing worthwhile. I've tried to convince her to load it into the SET but she won't, scared of losing it.

 

but based on her record I would go the SET anytime. I wanted to trade but I think the SET drivers are different to the west, so my trading mentality would be wrong. She trades on volumes, she watches volumes and decides if it's being manipulated or genuine interest. I don't pretend to understand her logic but she seems to get results.

So you actually won the lottery...when you married!

[jackdd]

11 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That's correct...

 

Now, if digits could be repeated, allowing for 10 million combinations, what would be the point of adding a letter and thus lower the odds to 1 in 420,000,000?

 

To make a comparison, the French very successful Loto has 14,000,000 combinations and offers prizes way higher than 10,000,000 baht...more like 10,000,000 euros.

Because a Ticket for this lottery here "costs" (it's not even a real cost) just 50 THB for 36 drawings, so just a bit more than 1THB per drawing. I assume a Ticket for the french lottery costs a bit more than 1THB per drawing.

Edited February 26, 2018 by jackdd

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

 

wife has about 6 Mill in the SET, earns about 150-200k/month, based on the last 12 months. She has traded for about 7 years and can play the stocks very well, her return is impressive.

 

but based on her record I would go the SET anytime. I wanted to trade but I think the SET drivers are different to the west, so my trading mentality would be wrong. She trades on volumes, she watches volumes and decides if it's being manipulated or genuine interest. I don't pretend to understand her logic but she seems to get results.

The thing with the SET is that it can also go down...and go down it will!

Not today or next week, but for the next 3 years the odds are quite high.

The Thai financial market being too small, the SET is merely following what bigger Asian indexes do, themselves following what US and European markets do.

The (doped) bull market has been running for 9 years, and now that the steroids are being removed, the bull is showing signs of exhaustion.

Guys who know a thing or two about financial markets, like Warren Buffett, are quietly sitting on the sides with piles of cash...

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, jackdd said:

Because a Ticket for this lottery here "costs" (it's not even a real cost) just 50 THB for 36 drawings, so just a bit more than 1THB per drawing. I assume a Ticket for the french lottery costs a bit more than 1THB per drawing.

Sure...I don't know how much it is today...in the past, bets started with the equivalent of about 10 baht...I wouldn't be surprised if it was 5 times as much now...

 

Anyway, I have never heard of any lottery system where the odds are constantly as low as 1/420,000,000...which is why I assume that there are no repeat digits.

 

But I may be wrong, or maybe the system is tweaked in some way in order to increase the odds...the possibilities are limitless...

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The thing with the SET is that it can also go down...and go down it will!

Not today or next week, but for the next 3 years the odds are quite high.

The Thai financial market being too small, the SET is merely following what bigger Asian indexes do, themselves following what US and European markets do.

The (doped) bull market has been running for 9 years, and now that the steroids are being removed, the bull is showing signs of exhaustion.

Guys who know a thing or two about financial markets, like Warren Buffett, are quietly sitting on the sides with piles of cash...

1

"the SET is merely following what bigger Asian indexes do, themselves following what US and European markets do".

 

That is not the case, the Thai index contains listings of Thai companies which are dependent on the Thai economy, not on the performance of companies in other economies, the SET is also far less expensive than say the Nasdaq, the Nikkei or the S&P. Case in point, when markets corrected earlier this month the Nikkei and the S&P fell by over 10%, the SET fell by 2.4% before recovery. 

[CrossBones]

On 25/02/2018 at 10:19 AM, blackcab said:

You go to the bank and deposit a fixed amount: 5,000, 50,000, 100,000, 500,000 up to 5,000,000 baht. The amount can differ from the above, but it has to be a round number, based on each ticket costing 50 baht. You can buy 100 tickets for 5,000 baht or 10,000 tickets for 500,000 baht, for example.

 

At the same time you will open a savings account where your winnings will be deposited. Winnings are deposited on the 17th of the month. Interest on any amount in the savings account is paid biannually on 30th June and 31st December.

 

You are given a card to show ownership of the lottery account (you don't actually get thousands of tickets), and a passbook for the savings account.

 

The draw takes place monthly on the 16th of the month. Winnings are automatically credited to your savings account the next day. Any wins over 5,000 baht and you get a postal notification.

 

The lottery ties up your money for 3 years. At the end of the 3 years you take your card to the bank and they immediately transfer the principal sum into your savings account. At this point you can reinvest in the lottery if you want to.

 

Warning: You will not receive notification the ticket has expired. It is up to you to redeem it. If you don't, you will not be paid any future prizes because the 3 year fund has expired.

 

The overall interest is calculated on the volume of tickets you buy. This is because if you purchase, for example, 10,000 tickets, you will be guaranteed a fixed number of small wins simply due to the statistics of how the lottery is drawn.

 

Attached is a current lottery card with 10,000 tickets costing 500,000 baht, and the corresponding savings passbook that was opened on the same day so you can see the winnings and interest.

 

After 2 years there is about 22,000 baht from 500,000 baht deposited, mainly due to one win of 10,000 baht.

Thanks for sharing. Thats 4.4 percent over 2 years so 2.2pc a year. Someone was telling me of one where you get one percent a month. Sounds a bit unrealistic I know

[CrossBones]

21 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Well, if I remember my probabilities courses from long ago, the number of combinations of 7 digits out of 10 possible digits is 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3 = 1,814,400

And then there are the 42 possible Thai letters, which gives us 1,814,400 x42 = 76,204,800 combinations!

The odds of winning are ridiculously small!

 

No its 1000000 (assuming 0000000 is allowed) X 42 = 42000000 (1 in 4.2 bn) for each ticket purchased.