Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, aright said:

Do you mean the reality that in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC the resulting 9 member states accounted for 26% of the world economy. Now with 28 member states it accounts for 20% and forecasts say by 2050 it will be less than 10% (smaller than India).

Do you mean the reality of the EU loosing 5% of its market each year, youth unemployment, 1 trillion euro target2 debts owed to Germany which will never be paid.

Do you mean the reality of loosing the UK contribution, fishing rights, far right political parties and populism.

Do you mean the reality that the EU's market growth has been 2% for the last 10 years, the USA by 76%, China by 132% and Greece by minus 50% and there has been no growth in Italy since they joined the euro.

Do you mean the reality of a high-currency financial strait jacket and...…….sorry, I'm tired of typing.  

You need to provide some links

 

The figures I have are EU - 15% of world trade

 

EU, USA and China - 45% of world trade.

 

In the meantime, look at this (including the trade deals pending and those being negotiated now)

 

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_being-negotiated

 

I think it is obvious that we get better deals by being in a huge market already!

 

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Grouse

[wilcopops]

We’ll just trade on WTO terms

All either tautologous or literally not true. But people <deleted> love the sound of ‘em, eh?

 

 

Repeat often enough and someone is gullible enough to believe it

[billd766]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

Not really, try the Wall Street Window.com.

The Decline and Fall of the European Union – Charles Hugh Smith (2019)

 

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-decline-and-fall-of-european-union.html

[Grouse]

19 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I don't know about the fish but their wine is excellent, far better than that French p1ss, and you can even buy it in Villa and I think I saw some in BigC.

Australian, S African, NZ, Chilean and Portuguese wines are much nicer than Euro plonk.

I guess taste depends, to an extent, on the depth of ones pockets!

[Grouse]

17 minutes ago, bomber said:

Portugal is in europe,at least it was last week when i was there,maybe its gone under like so many of you lot have been predicting.????

OOh! Mateus Rose! Great with prawn cocktail, a rump steak and Black Forest Gateau!

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

Sense of humour break down? Even American late night talk show hosts think Brexit is bloody stupid. If they get it,Brexit really IS stupid.

But that's the thing - they don't get it because they're American and not British. I'm pretty sure the Americans wouldn't take kindly to being dictated to by a bunch of bureaucrats in Canada, and having FOM for all North and South Americans. 

[bomber]

10 minutes ago, billd766 said:

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-decline-and-fall-of-european-union.html

Not even going  to read it,after 10 years if hearing the same crap it gets boring.wishful thinking from sad people

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

The urge to Gloat at the thought of you having to have one next time around hasn't gone amiss ????

Still got my old original blue cardboard passport. Its a bit buckled since I fell into a lake with it.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

That you have a friend. No I don’t beleive.

Two including you.

[aright]

21 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You need to provide some links

 

The figures I have are EU - 15% of world trade

 

EU, USA and China - 45% of world trade.

 

In the meantime, look at this (including the trade deals pending and those being negotiated now)

 

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_being-negotiated

 

I think it is obvious that we get better deals by being in a huge market already!

 

 

I used these graphs to arrive  at my 20% figure but am very happy to accept 15%....it's more supportive of my argument. As for 45% of world trade I didn't quote any figure on that. In your last sentence think is the operative word.

As for reading material can I recommend "Clean Brexit: Why leaving the EU makes sense" by Liam Halligan and Gerard Lyons.

This is a review

https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/posts/clean-brexit-by-liam-halligan-and-gerard-lyons-review-by-stuart-crank   

[evadgib]

Plans to phase in Entry Summary Declarations if the UK leaves the EU without a deal are announced by the government.

HMRC outlines phased approach for Entry Summary Declarations

[CG1 Blue]

I just wanted to mention the Honda news story again, after some posters on here were salivating yesterday about another so called 'Brexit' story. Today we had the official announcement from Honda:

 

"Honda said the move was due to global changes in the car industry and the need to launch electric vehicles, and it had nothing to do with Brexit."

"A fall in demand for diesel cars and tougher emissions regulations have shaken up the car industry."

Ian Howells, senior vice-president for Honda in Europe, told the BBC: "We're seeing unprecedented change in the industry on a global scale. We have to move very swiftly to electrification of our vehicles because of demand of our customers and legislation.

"This is not a Brexit-related issue for us, it's being made on the global-related changes I've spoken about.

"We've always seen Brexit as something we'll get through, but these changes globally are something we will have to respond to.

Mr Howells said that, in the light of changes in the industry, the company had to "look very closely" at where it was putting its investment. "It has to be in a marketplace of a size for Honda, where it makes investment worthwhile.

"The conclusion coming out of that is that that doesn't include Swindon - the relative size of the marketplace in Europe is significantly different."

The EU and Japan recently struck a trade deal which lowers tariffs on both parties' car exports to zero.

BBC business editor Simon Jack said the trade deal means there is a dwindling rationale to base manufacturing inside the EU."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Nobody is interested in any investigation that may prove they were manipulated.

Brexit means brexit, irrespective of how the result was obtained.

 

Theresa May must launch an independent investigation into “foreign influence and voter manipulation” in the Brexit vote, a committee of MPs says today, amid growing evidence of lawbreaking by Leave campaigners.

A highly critical report – which warns “democracy is at risk” from rogue practices on social media – turns its fire on the prime minister for the failure to probe their effect on the referendum result.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-vote-investigate-law-breaking-influence-manipulation-theresa-may-facebook-a8783746.html

If there was as much focus on the Remain campaign they'd find just as many wrongdoings on that side. 

[Grouse]

42 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

But that's the thing - they don't get it because they're American and not British. I'm pretty sure the Americans wouldn't take kindly to being dictated to by a bunch of bureaucrats in Canada, and having FOM for all North and South Americans. 

It is the USA

 

They have state laws and federal law and a common currency. Seems to work?

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

If there was as much focus on the Remain campaign they'd find just as many wrongdoings on that side. 

That is exceedingly unlikely

[Grouse]

34 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I just wanted to mention the Honda news story again, after some posters on here were salivating yesterday about another so called 'Brexit' story. Today we had the official announcement from Honda:

 

"Honda said the move was due to global changes in the car industry and the need to launch electric vehicles, and it had nothing to do with Brexit."

"A fall in demand for diesel cars and tougher emissions regulations have shaken up the car industry."

Ian Howells, senior vice-president for Honda in Europe, told the BBC: "We're seeing unprecedented change in the industry on a global scale. We have to move very swiftly to electrification of our vehicles because of demand of our customers and legislation.

"This is not a Brexit-related issue for us, it's being made on the global-related changes I've spoken about.

"We've always seen Brexit as something we'll get through, but these changes globally are something we will have to respond to.

Mr Howells said that, in the light of changes in the industry, the company had to "look very closely" at where it was putting its investment. "It has to be in a marketplace of a size for Honda, where it makes investment worthwhile.

"The conclusion coming out of that is that that doesn't include Swindon - the relative size of the marketplace in Europe is significantly different."

The EU and Japan recently struck a trade deal which lowers tariffs on both parties' car exports to zero.

BBC business editor Simon Jack said the trade deal means there is a dwindling rationale to base manufacturing inside the EU."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

 

 

Looking at Honda sales figures is illuminating. Honda sales in America are 10x that in Europe. Same for Asia.

 

I guess the combination of the Japan trade deal from 2025 and tariffs on car exports from U.K. AND low volumes are the reason why there will be no new model for Swindon 

 

I guess taste comes into this. Europeans have rather more sophisticated tastes than either Americans or Asians. Japanese cars have no brio, no panache, no style. 

 

One point though ought is that I would have thought the Japanese would want to keep a stake in the U.K. To benefit from the latest material science, batteries and control systems. They obviously don't expect the U.K. To invest as promised in these technologies.

 

Overall, small cars in Europe will be by Merc, VW, Peugeot/Citroen and Fiat. Ford, GM, Nissan, Toyota and Honda will be out.

 

BTW, Honda don't really do diesels in Europe. That's a red herring in this case.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Grouse

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

Sense of humour break down? Even American late night talk show hosts think Brexit is bloody stupid. If they get it,Brexit really IS stupid.

I can laugh at it but I thought it was supposed to be meaningful. A lazy compendium of lazy anti Brexit out-takes. That's all.

[CG1 Blue]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Looking at Honda sales figures is illuminating. Honda sales in America are 10x that in Europe. Same for Asia.

 

I guess the combination of the Japan trade deal from 2025 and tariffs on car exports from U.K. AND low volumes are the reason why there will be no new model for Swindon 

 

I guess taste comes into this. Europeans have rather more sophisticated tastes than either Americans or Asians. Japanese cars have no brio, no panache, no style. 

 

One point though ought is that I would have thought the Japanese would want to keep a stake in the U.K. To benefit from the latest material science, batteries and control systems. They obviously don't expect the U.K. To invest as promised in these technologies.

 

Overall, small cars in Europe will be by Merc, VW, Peugeot/Citroen and Fiat. Ford, GM, Nissan, Toyota and Honda will be out.

 

"Its European HQ will continue to be located in the UK after the changes." That's in Bracknell. I guess that's keeping a stake in the UK, right? 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

49 minutes ago, aright said:

 

I don’t have time to research now but my hypothesis is: The EU’s share of the world economy is falling not because the EU’s economy is shrinking but because developing markets are growing faster than developed markets. 

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

It’s pretty good. Hit the nail. Of course Brexiteers don’t like to be confronted with reality. 

Hit your nail, painful.

[SheungWan]

9 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

"Its European HQ will continue to be located in the UK after the changes." That's in Bracknell. I guess that's keeping a stake in the UK, right? 

Bracknell is one of the most exciting towns in the UK.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

One of the defining characteristics of a cult is that they cling on to prophesy even as all the evidence demonstrates that their belief system is a fantastical dustbin of nonsense. You see it with the Seekers, you see it with the Branch Davidians. You see it with Brexiteers

I think you must see things at night. Straaaange things.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, bomber said:

Not even going  to read it,after 10 years if hearing the same crap it gets boring.wishful thinking from sad people

Oh you should read it. You'd hate it! It's like a summary of all the stuff you don't want to hear, covering 17 years and more from the birth of Baby Euro. Like a refresher course. Short paragraphs, to the point and easy to read.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

OOh! Mateus Rose! Great with prawn cocktail, a rump steak and Black Forest Gateau!

Better with a vindaloo. Then you can't taste it.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

Still got my old original blue cardboard passport. Its a bit buckled since I fell into a lake with it.

A lake of plum paint.

[nauseus]

40 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Looking at Honda sales figures is illuminating. Honda sales in America are 10x that in Europe. Same for Asia.

 

I guess the combination of the Japan trade deal from 2025 and tariffs on car exports from U.K. AND low volumes are the reason why there will be no new model for Swindon 

 

I guess taste comes into this. Europeans have rather more sophisticated tastes than either Americans or Asians. Japanese cars have no brio, no panache, no style. 

 

One point though ought is that I would have thought the Japanese would want to keep a stake in the U.K. To benefit from the latest material science, batteries and control systems. They obviously don't expect the U.K. To invest as promised in these technologies.

 

Overall, small cars in Europe will be by Merc, VW, Peugeot/Citroen and Fiat. Ford, GM, Nissan, Toyota and Honda will be out.

 

BTW, Honda don't really do diesels in Europe. That's a red herring in this case.

They do well in the US because American cars are crap and the Germans got caught cheating there.

[nauseus]

44 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

I don’t have time to research now but my hypothesis is: The EU’s share of the world economy is falling not because the EU’s economy is shrinking but because developing markets are growing faster than developed markets. 

Much faster. 

[wilcopops]

3 hours ago, billd766 said:

I don't know about the fish but their wine is excellent, far better than that French p1ss, and you can even buy it in Villa and I think I saw some in BigC.

Australian, S African, NZ, Chilean and Portuguese wines are much nicer than Euro plonk.

A  sommelier and geographer speaks!?!?!

Edited February 19, 2019 by wilcopops

[aright]

[damascase]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

But that's the thing - they don't get it because they're American and not British. I'm pretty sure the Americans wouldn't take kindly to being dictated to by a bunch of bureaucrats in Canada, and having FOM for all North and South Americans. 

A ridiculous comparison............