Thailand reports four new coronavirus cases - including Italian tourist - total 47

[khunpa]

16 hours ago, sitanonchai said:

My guess they have at least a couple of 1000 people infected by now if it's not more. They just don't know or don't publish it afraid of more declining tourist numbers and less revenue.

How is it possible that European, smaller countries then Thailand in the last week went from zero infected to hundreds ?

 

Is it possible the amulets do work ?

Thailand has 1.600+ people admitted to hospitals and defined as so-called PUI patents. In my mind  95% of these are corona virus cases. But no testing = No confirmed cases.

 

 

[metisdead]

A post using a Twitter post has been removed, please remember this is a forum, not a Twitter site.

 

A post with a link to a questionable source has been removed. 

[Jumbo1968]

11 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Thailand has 1.600+ people admitted to hospitals and defined as so-called PUI patents. In my mind  95% of these are corona virus cases. But no testing = No confirmed cases.

 

 

Yes but surely in this day and age of Social Media there would have been a ‘whistle blower’ some where telling it how it is ?

[Grumpy John]

I am not trying to be to critical of the government...afterall their spies read most, if not all posts on here, but the number of confirmed cases does seem unrealistic given the facts.   So I am with the guys who are suggesting that there are many people listed as PUI who do in fact have the virus.  How many that # is we may not know but it could run into the hundreds. 

[MikeyScars]

Document confirms Covid-19 case at Vachira Hospital Phuket

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/coronavirus/document-confirms-covid-19-case-at-vachira-hospital-phuket

 

 

Total should be 48 or 47?

Am I missing something?

Edited March 7, 2020 by metisdead
Oversize font reset to normal.

[khunpa]

55 minutes ago, MikeyScars said:

Document confirms Covid-19 case at Vachira Hospital Phuket

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/coronavirus/document-confirms-covid-19-case-at-vachira-hospital-phuket

 

 

Total should be 48 or 47?

Am I missing something?

It is officially 48 now

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

[khunpa]

1 hour ago, Jumbo1968 said:

Yes but surely in this day and age of Social Media there would have been a ‘whistle blower’ some where telling it how it is ?

Not if the tests are never done. Then there will be no cases and nobody will have anything to tell.

 

But what we do know, is that more and more beds are being occupied with PUI patients. If this number keeps going up day by day, then at some point I guess there will be a tipping point and someone will start to talk.

[AlienHermit66]

On 3/5/2020 at 8:32 PM, lovethai123 said:

That's the first thought came in my mind when I heard there are students from my country as well currently studying in Iran but I think some or most of these students may be there for  some  religious course.

It's not exactly specified as to what they were studying there though. 

I read an article that stated that these students are studying Islam, Theology, or the word of Allah - whatever one prefers to call it. 

[AlienHermit66]

16 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Not if the tests are never done. Then there will be no cases and nobody will have anything to tell.

 

But what we do know, is that more and more beds are being occupied with PUI patients. If this number keeps going up day by day, then at some point I guess there will be a tipping point and someone will start to talk.

I would say that "people will start to talk" only when the bodies start hitting the body bags, as was the case in Iran, where hospital workers and morgues workers started spilling the beans. However, if people don't actually die in huge numbers, then who cares how many PUIs there are? For every PUI, there are countless people who are self-monitoring what they see as cold or flu symptoms, and they are not going near a hospital, and therefore do not become PUI statistics. The number of clearly sick people around me made a big jump in the last week - I doubt whether any of them know what exactly they have, and I doubt they are visiting hospitals. They are self-monitoring their condition and hoping for the best. 

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to a conspiracy scaremongering video has been removed as well as the reply.  

[Dutyfirst]

On 3/5/2020 at 12:59 PM, unsubscribe said:

I guess warm/hot weather isn't much of a deterrent if it's spreading in countries like India and Egypt.

 

India has a billion people and less cases than Thailand? Egypt has 14... hardly exploding like sth korea and iran

[ThaiBunny]

4 minutes ago, Dutyfirst said:

India has a billion people and less cases than Thailand? Egypt has 14... hardly exploding like sth korea and iran

Turkey has no reported cases yet it's right next door to Iran and Greece and is a major airline hub. Governments depending on tourism will be covering up when and where they can

Edited March 7, 2020 by ThaiBunny

[Dutyfirst]

On 3/5/2020 at 5:32 PM, humbug said:

already there are two mutations, one stronger than the other, hot countries, Kuwait, India, uae, Saudi, Malaysia, Bahrain all reporting spikes in cases, it’s how you test, if you test 30,000 people a day, you can find maybe 25% of cases, not many people will be isolated outside in the searing heat 24hrs a day, it’s not how the world lives, this is 2020 not 220 AD

A spike would be 100's of people, 10 people here and there is expected for such populated countries. Look at the colder countries like germany, US. sth korea and iran. Those are "spikes"

[CGW]

46 minutes ago, Dutyfirst said:

Egypt has 14... hardly exploding like sth korea and iran

Egyptian medical services are still in the dark ages! think bloodletting and leeches! Some truly horrendous hospitals there! 

 

Iran has gone from the most "hated" country in the world to the third most reported cases of CV19 - & they are reporting all the cases to the same people that wanted to blow them to pieces mere weeks before? ????

[Traubert]

On 3/5/2020 at 1:55 PM, Mavideol said:

thinking about it in detail, your comment makes a lot of sense, actually there's not a big difference between the US and China when it comes to hiding/holding the truth from their citizens, they both lie and provide a lot of misleading information to divert people's attention to different, non relevant, matters

True.

 

Well China not so much.....

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, Jumbo1968 said:

Yes but surely in this day and age of Social Media there would have been a ‘whistle blower’ some where telling it how it is ?

I've been blowing an alpine horn for weeks but when people are in denial, even detonating a tsar bomb 5cm from them has no effect.

[DrTuner]

15 hours ago, DaveK68 said:

I've read that the majority of folks who are infected with COVID-19 don't know and will never know. 

That's guesswork based on mathematical model. Until they develop a test for antibodies in the blood and test entire populations there will be no real data on it.

[Traubert]

On 3/5/2020 at 7:22 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

You figured it out. The next phase of this pandemic will be heavily scripted. China will claim they have the Wuhan outbreak under control and blame foreign cases for the final spread all over the country.

Thailand will claim everything was under control until South Korea and Italy spread the virus to the magic land itself.

Sadly for your theory that's not happening and the incidence of virus free Chinese cities and provinces grows every day. There are still quite strict regulations in place to prevent a recurrence anytime soon.

 

Take my province. 252 cases, 2 deaths, 219 recovered, 31 still hospitalised, Hubei excepted that's quite typical. Even in Hubei they are now closing the makeshift hospitals. 55,000 recovered out of 80,000. 

 

[Traubert]

On 3/5/2020 at 9:04 PM, smedly said:

and the latest - human to animal 

 

 

Hong Kong authorities have warned people to avoid kissing their pets, but also to not panic and abandon them after a dog repeatedly tested “weak positive” for coronavirus.

The Hong Kong Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department said experts unanimously agreed the results suggested the dog had “a low-level of infection and it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission”.

The Pomeranian’s owner was infected with Covid-19 but the dog itself was not showing symptoms, authorities said.

If you need that advice you are beyond saving.

[metisdead]

A post containing an offensive slur comment toward Chinese people has been reported and removed. 

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, Traubert said:

Sadly for your theory that's not happening and the incidence of virus free Chinese cities and provinces grows every day. There are still quite strict regulations in place to prevent a recurrence anytime soon.

It will recur within weeks of things going "normal". Until there's herd immunity or a vaccine, it'll be endemic.

[SkyFax]

7 hours ago, DrTuner said:

13 hours ago, Traubert said:

Sadly for your theory that's not happening and the incidence of virus free Chinese cities and provinces grows every day. There are still quite strict regulations in place to prevent a recurrence anytime soon.

It will recur within weeks of things going "normal". Until there's herd immunity or a vaccine, it'll be endemic.

Dr. Tuner's prediction from FEB14 3+ weeks ago:

 

I'm betting on (confirmed case figures simply exploding, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation) and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.
 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1148199-virus-numbers-stable-recoveries-continue/?do=findComment&comment=15060409

Edited March 7, 2020 by SkyFax

[Jumbo1968]

At the BKK Airport, used the toilet, no soap or towels in Dispensers only cold water for washing hands, fortunately I have a disinfectant spray. 

[bkkcanuck8]

On 3/5/2020 at 12:59 PM, unsubscribe said:

I guess warm/hot weather isn't much of a deterrent if it's spreading in countries like India and Egypt.

 

Those that are betting on warm temperatures controlling the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) will be disappointed.  A WHO report indicates that it can survive for up to 2 days on surfaces at temperatures of 37C (98F).  Direct sunlight though is likely to reduce that since UV radiation acts as a natural disinfectant. 

[DrTuner]

On 3/8/2020 at 5:20 AM, SkyFax said:

Dr. Tuner's prediction from FEB14 3+ weeks ago:

 

I'm betting on (confirmed case figures simply exploding, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation) and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.
 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1148199-virus-numbers-stable-recoveries-continue/?do=findComment&comment=15060409

Yeah, the results are .. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no65-080363.pdf

 

4518 PUI, 1789 in hospitals. Not there yet, but the 250-bed Bamrasnaradu is likely full. The trend is still there, 152 PUI were added on 8th of March. The count for people in hospitals Feb 14 was 117, so it's gone 15-fold in those three weeks.

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by DrTuner

[SkyFax]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The trend is still there

You didn't say anything about any trend. You said hospitals overrun and panic by last week.

[DrTuner]

17 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

You didn't say anything about any trend. You said hospitals overrun and panic by last week.

I wrote "we'll see". We are still seeing and my bet is still the same. I've been trying to figure out how many hospital beds there are without much success. But let's say, for argument's sake, the count goes another 15x in three weeks. That'd be ~27k in hospitals. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by DrTuner

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

I wrote "we'll see". We are still seeing and my bet is still the same. I've been trying to figure out how many hospital beds there are without much success. But let's say, for argument's sake, the count goes another 15x in three weeks. That'd be ~27k in hospitals. 

It would be silly to house infected in hospitals since that would only make the situation worse.  The only ones that you need in hospitals are those that have the severe form (need oxygen support) or those in critical condition.  A hospital should not be used for general quarantine.  Ideally you want designated facilities segregated from regular hospitals.  The original hospitals dealing with the virus in Wuhan had a case list of somewhere between 100 and 150 (or there about) patients that formed one study, 45+ of the infected were health care professionals.  Having that spread through those that we need to be healthy and not quarantined to deal with this pandemic -- is disastrous.

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling cartoon video has been removed. 

[DrTuner]

28 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The only ones that you need in hospitals are those that have the severe form (need oxygen support) or those in critical condition.  

Unfortunately MoPH doesn't publish the number in serious or critical condition, so just have to guess. I think the serious complication rate in China was something like 20%? With ~1800 PUI in hospitals, that'd currently be 360 serious or so.

 

Only a part of those would be critical and need ECMO or some other ICU equipment. It seems to be still within capacity, for now. As for the capacity itself, again just have to guesstimate from f.ex. UK's numbers: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51714498 , 4k ICU beds of which 4/5 are taken, so somewhere around 800 free. Obviously they'd be scattered around Thailand. Given those guesses, I think it'll take at least 4-5x the current PUI count for the struggle to start, i.e. same sort of figures we're seeing in Italy right now ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps ).

 

MoPH does publish how many PUI are being monitored at home: 54 on 8th of March. That's a small percentage of the PUIs in hospitals. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by DrTuner