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50% of people in Thailand to receive vaccine jab by end of October


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............and that 50% is only one jab.   They are probably 6 months away from being 'safe' to open up.

50% is not enough to fully reopen.  80% is about the mark.

While international tourists have to be 100% double dosed, certificates of every kind, tested to the limit, have Covid insurance and pockets deeper than the Mariana trench. And suffer incarcerati

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I'm surprised they don't sell it better by only stating % of adult population. Then the current 20.4% fully vaccinated would become 26% and the projected 50% would become 64% 

 

(Based on 70m population and 55m adults getting vax)

Edited by aussiexpat
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50 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

A crucial benchmark would be 90% of over 60's double jabbed. 

 

In this respect, Thailand only started in earnest about 2 weeks ago, ie, the first 2 months of the mass vaccine roll out was wasted vaccinating youngsters who don't really need it, thus whatever happens here on in is more of a salvage job. 

 

Maybe, the main tourist spots plus Bangkok could reopen in November provided the latter is 90% covered.  This would delay another surge for a month or two, by which time most of the adult population would be done,  The case load would still peak at 50-100,000 people, however the death rate would be around 200-400 per day.  I don't know if Thais would live with that, or if tourists would want to come.

 

Frankly, January would likely be a better option, if the sole consideration is public safety.

Where are you getting these case load/death predictions from ?

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I live in Northern Isaan I got my second jab about a month ago, it was free. What seems to be the problem in Bangkok and the tourist areas?

Our three farang bars are still closed so there is no friendly chat (in English).

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1 hour ago, club said:

If Pfizer is late on delivery , Hopefully you have a plan B, but great news if it happens

I hope the Pfizer comes soon and I hope we could get 2 jabs without mixing it with Sinovac. Even if I have to pay for it. We should have the choice.

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a little confusing,i went to vacs.live thailand 17th sept 40.75% vaxxed with 1 or more jab.so if we have 1 mill a day we will achieve 50% way before that or is the math wrong?any ideas anyone?the figs are usually accurate on this site as they access gov records daily.we also have the rest of this mnth to add to the sept count.

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2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

A crucial benchmark would be 90% of over 60's double jabbed. 

 

In this respect, Thailand only started in earnest about 2 weeks ago, ie, the first 2 months of the mass vaccine roll out was wasted vaccinating youngsters who don't really need it, thus whatever happens here on in is more of a salvage job. 

Absolutely. I still see inane tone deaf IG posts of young healthy Thais with their "V" for vaccine (or victory?), smirking (I imagine, as they're wearing masks), as they get their second jab...months ago, and still today. Age, and with comorbidities, was never part of the rollout "plan".

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23 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

a little confusing,i went to vacs.live thailand 17th sept 40.75% vaxxed with 1 or more jab.so if we have 1 mill a day we will achieve 50% way before that or is the math wrong?any ideas anyone?the figs are usually accurate on this site as they access gov records daily.we also have the rest of this mnth to add to the sept count.

Yeah I misread the article and thought they meant 50% fully vaccinated (as 20.4% is currently number) 🤔

 

With 40% having at least 1 dose they only need 7 million first doses to reach 50%  they could do that by the end of September at the current 700,000 doses per day 

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They're going to open locales based on a timetable of their choosing. The vaccination numbers will be massaged as required to support that timetable.

 

And they'll need ~ 15 mm third-shot boosters for those already "fully" vaccinated with sinovac and sinopharm.

 

 

Assuming the goal is still 50 mm people with 100 mm doses then they're at ~ 29% with two doses, and ~ 57% with one dose.

 

 

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Yesterday and today Koh Samui had 4000 doses of AZ i had my second shot among many others foreigners and Thais. i believe those who had 2 doses of sinovac will get an AZ booster in October

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50% by end of October probably not realistic—especially if the vast majority of them have had two doses of SinoVac.  And just how effective would that be?

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15 minutes ago, aussiexpat said:

Yeah I misread the article and thought they meant 50% fully vaccinated (as 20.4% is currently number) 🤔

 

With 40% having at least 1 dose they only need 7 million first doses to reach 50%  they could do that by the end of September at the current 700,000 doses per day 

The doses will include second and third booster jabs so the maths is not that simple. That said, I think they should still meet their target comfortably. 

Edited by Kadilo
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