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Thai Baht set to continue strengthening as Asian economies to benefit from China’s reopening


webfact

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6 minutes ago, mikebell said:

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

Yes, a country in crisis... and when the Chinese money pours into Thailand, you will only see a lower rate Baht for Sterling. Quite a slide since mid-December. 

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22 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Chinese have not even started to arrive and travel en-mass yet the speculation of them doing so strengthens the baht, go figure.

Yes... people will buy the currency based on what is  going to happen and be ahead of the movements. Although I expected the recent vaccine requirements, etc to bring the baht back a bit. Even the normally timid markets aren't believing that will happen!

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1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

There is an optimal desirable level of USD/THB from almost everyone's perspective , 32 keep exporters happy, makes exports attractive and prices imports sensibly. 

 

Unfortunately, expats don't see things the same way.

can give an example please or explain??

 

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56 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Yes... people will buy the currency based on what is  going to happen and be ahead of the movements. Although I expected the recent vaccine requirements, etc to bring the baht back a bit. Even the normally timid markets aren't believing that will happen!

Looks like 32 thb to $1 USD will be coming sooner rather than later....glad I already transfered my money for my kitchen remodeling and they are doing the work now.

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1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Export bills are settled in USD hence the exchange rate USD/THB is vitally important to exporters.  Too strong and nobody wants to buy, too weak and exporters can't make profit.

so if I have to pay 10.000 THB in USD I pay for a rate at 36 totally 277 USD and with a rate of 34  totally 294 USD.. exporter is happy but not me. Be honest in THB you calculate with THB to USD and not USD to THB.....

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36 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

so if I have to pay 10.000 THB in USD I pay for a rate at 36 totally 277 USD and with a rate of 34  totally 294 USD.. exporter is happy but not me. Be honest in THB you calculate with THB to USD and not USD to THB.....

I don't understand what you wrote or intended in the second part of that.

 

The Thai exporter markets their product in Baht but the transaction is settled in USD. As you say, if the ex. rate is one way, one person wins, if it's the other they lose, there is therefore an optimum rate where both parties are happy, that was the point I tried to make in my original post. The only thing that's missing is the fact that the Thai exporter has to sell the USD he has earned from the sale, back to the BOT where the currency is added to foreign currency reserves. The rate on that exchange has to be favorable to the exporter.

 

On the other side of the coin, imports are also paid for in USD, oil is a prime example. USD at 38 makes oil very very expensive, at 29 it's dirt cheap but that rate kills Thai exporters. Once again, there's an optimal exchange rate that satisfies all parties.

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1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

I don't understand what you wrote or intended in the second part of that.

 

The Thai exporter markets their product in Baht but the transaction is settled in USD. As you say, if the ex. rate is one way, one person wins, if it's the other they lose, there is therefore an optimum rate where both parties are happy, that was the point I tried to make in my original post. The only thing that's missing is the fact that the Thai exporter has to sell the USD he has earned from the sale, back to the BOT where the currency is added to foreign currency reserves. The rate on that exchange has to be favorable to the exporter.

 

On the other side of the coin, imports are also paid for in USD, oil is a prime example. USD at 38 makes oil very very expensive, at 29 it's dirt cheap but that rate kills Thai exporters. Once again, there's an optimal exchange rate that satisfies all parties.

ifyou are an exporter you receive USD and you have to change them in THB and with a strong THB you get less almost every day.. you don't understand that? And I as an importer of your Thai goods have to pay more USD for the same product... Who is benefitting? tell me please. I don't tralk about big international businesses and the oil and energy business... That is totally different.. No I just talk about a Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller for example...As an importer I go and look cheaper options maybe different countries who can deliver the same for less..Nobody is benefitting of a too expensive currency.. Result is that prices only are going up and result in devaluation of the currency..Than all parties are satisfied..At this moment not many people are satisfied with the overvalued THB 

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7 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

ifyou are an exporter you receive USD and you have to change them in THB and with a strong THB you get less almost every day.. you don't understand that? And I as an importer of your Thai goods have to pay more USD for the same product... Who is benefitting? tell me please. I don't tralk about big international businesses and the oil and energy business... That is totally different.. No I just talk about a Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller for example...As an importer I go and look cheaper options maybe different countries who can deliver the same for less..Nobody is benefitting of a too expensive currency.. Result is that prices only are going up and result in devaluation of the currency..Than all parties are satisfied..At this moment not many people are satisfied with the overvalued THB 

Importers can buy from whoever they chose, if they don't like the price they go elsewhere because once the deal is done, they have to pay.

 

BUT, the Thai exporter can sit on their USD for years if need be, or they can now chose to invest the USD overseas before repatriating it. Many now will sit on the USD/invest it, until the rate swings into their favour once again. BOT changed those rules specifically to help prevent the Baht from strengthening too much, previously, exporters had to exchange it into THB within one year and couldn't invest overseas. But let's be clear, Thai exports average around USD 24 billion every month, we're not talking about "Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller", we're talking a much much larger scale.

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1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

Importers can buy from whoever they chose, if they don't like the price they go elsewhere because once the deal is done, they have to pay.

 

BUT, the Thai exporter can sit on their USD for years if need be, or they can now chose to invest the USD overseas before repatriating it. Many now will sit on the USD/invest it, until the rate swings into their favour once again. BOT changed those rules specifically to help prevent the Baht from strengthening too much, previously, exporters had to exchange it into THB within one year and couldn't invest overseas. But let's be clear, Thai exports average around USD 24 billion every month, we're not talking about "Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller", we're talking a much much larger scale.

your country, your view, your opninion.... The big money will be always in benefit...But how about expats and retirees who get less money to spend every month.. They contribute more than the internationals who only benefit the rich and super rich...But again your country.. And a lot of people know that superrich and rich are changing their THB in USD because when the THB will collapse they will profit again.. Everybody happy

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6 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

your country, your view, your opninion.... The big money will be always in benefit...But how about expats and retirees who get less money to spend every month.. They contribute more than the internationals who only benefit the rich and super rich...But again your country.. And a lot of people know that superrich and rich are changing their THB in USD because when the THB will collapse they will profit again.. Everybody happy

You're a funny guy!

 

Pre-1997, THB was pegged to USD at 25, after the crash it sank to 50. In early 2000, Bangkok was only a fraction of what it is today, the transformation has been amazing to witness. Currency collapse? Quite the opposite! I expect to see THB/USD back at 25 within 10 years, all things being equal and so do the markets.

 

Yes of course there are issues with foreign pensioners and expats but those things are hardly Thailand's concern. And of course there are issues with the uber rich, most countries have similar. 

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11 hours ago, mikebell said:

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

Depending on the baht / pound, I tend to send 59-62,000 a month (baht rate dependant) , I think I can absorb some fluctuation.  However, If my usual amount start getting iffy, then alot here are going to be 7/11 all their meals and living in a one room / 1 toilet apartment !  But I guess that dodgy room here is better than the cardboard box back home

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3 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Depending on the baht / pound, I tend to send 59-62,000 a month (baht rate dependant) , I think I can absorb some fluctuation.  However, If my usual amount start getting iffy, then alot here are going to be 7/11 all their meals and living in a one room / 1 toilet apartment !  But I guess that dodgy room here is better than the cardboard box back home

Rental rates in the UK are increasing 

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13 hours ago, webfact said:

in October was trading at around 38 to the US Dollar

Still that is the true rate. 
 

13 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai economy continues to recover and China’s reopening to help sustain recessionary fears from the west.

Really !!! ????????

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22 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai Baht, which in October was trading at around 38 to the US Dollar has strengthened to 34 to the US$, and the Thai currency is likely to continue to see strengthening going into 2023 as the Thai economy continues to recover and China’s reopening to help sustain recessionary fears from the west.

The teflon coated baht...

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