Thailand In Ten Years

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

Interesting view,

Personally, I think we just need to look at Idi Amin and Uganda - replacing Indian/Asians with Farang!

I don't quite get what your saying, Do you want to explain a bit more?

I assume he is referring to the mass-expulsions of Asians from Uganda and inferring that felangs could meet a similar fate here...

You assume correctly - we WILL be the scapegoats when the SH#T hits the fan, and I doubt it will take as long as ten years.

There is a lot of changes going on here, is it just me or has anyone else noticed, the Thais are not as "Jai Yin Yin" as they used to be, the smiles are starting to straighten a bit, but then again, it is Thailand, and it could be business as usual by tomorrow! LOL

[radioguy1450]

The only thing I am sure will happen in ten years is that my belly and my balls will hang even lower than they do today.

I apologize for the sarcasm--couldn't be helped.

On a serious note, my prediction is that water will become as important as oil and China's need for both will have a large impact on the region and world.

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

The only thing I am sure will happen in ten years is that my belly and my balls will hang even lower than they do today.

I apologize for the sarcasm--couldn't be helped.

On a serious note, my prediction is that water will become as important as oil and China's need for both will have a large impact on the region and world.

Mine are scraping the ground already!

I agree with you about the water, it's started already, you won't need a boat or bridge to cross the Mekong soon, when China steals the lot.

The Government needs to put much more planning to control and regulate the water here, so much is wasted every year, one minute we are under a metre of water when the rains come, the next month later, there are cries about drought.

As usual though, the poopr farmers get the blame normally accused of deforesting the land.....ah how simple there lies the blame, nothing to do with the wealthy influential people cutting and clearing timber...no never!

[roietjimmy]

No time to go over what I just wrote (written in haste), but I think you get the picture. The demographic situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

If you want to talk numbers and problems, here you go:

Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2007

--------------------------------------------------------

Rank Country or Area Population

--------------------------------------------------------

20 Thailand 65,068,149

36 Canada 33,390,141

LaoPo

Population density:

Thailand 126.8 people/km²

Canada 3.3 people/km²

OK, so here's the plan! Move all the people in Thailand to Canada. Canada really needs the people, it has a huge surplus of fresh water and after the globe has warmed up Thais will feel right at home. Leave the 20 Canadians living in Thailand here and appoint Canuckamuck Prime Minister to implement polices in accordance with his predictions.

Results:

Population density problem solved. Nobody overcrowded!

Canada 6.5 people/km²

Thailand 0.00004 people/km²

Both countries have a surplus of fresh water.

Thais will form a single political party and govern Canada for many years to come. Something they were unable to do in Thailand since the introduction of democracy.

Thailand will have the same problems it has now but nobody will care.

Posters on TV will no longer be able to complain about how badly the Thais govern Thailand.

Edited July 28, 2007 by roietjimmy

[qwertz]

^

What about Quebec?

[thwock]

it suprises me that nobody has mentioned the desperate problems that will ensue from lack of affordable oil supplies.

in 5 years time oil demand will exceed supply big time. there will be a global rush to tie up supplies ,thais will be left behind with nowt .

so you can expect civil unrest .Those with the cash will be able to but whilst others will go without.

[solo siam]

it suprises me that nobody has mentioned the desperate problems that will ensue from lack of affordable oil supplies.

in 5 years time oil demand will exceed supply big time. there will be a global rush to tie up supplies ,thais will be left behind with nowt .

so you can expect civil unrest .Those with the cash will be able to but whilst others will go without.

Eh!

Diesel engines can run purely off of vegetable oil with very little modification, Thailand has some of the largest sources of vegetable oil in the world.

[roietjimmy]

^

What about Quebec?

Job opportunities for Thais will flourish teaching l'habitants how to speak English.

[Tilokarat]

I hope that I am wrong, but Thailand might begin to look like a colony of China.

[canuckamuck]

No time to go over what I just wrote (written in haste), but I think you get the picture. The demographic situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

If you want to talk numbers and problems, here you go:

Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2007

--------------------------------------------------------

Rank Country or Area Population

--------------------------------------------------------

20 Thailand 65,068,149

36 Canada 33,390,141

LaoPo

Population density:

Thailand 126.8 people/km²

Canada 3.3 people/km²

OK, so here's the plan! Move all the people in Thailand to Canada. Canada really needs the people, it has a huge surplus of fresh water and after the globe has warmed up Thais will feel right at home. Leave the 20 Canadians living in Thailand here and appoint Canuckamuck Prime Minister to implement polices in accordance with his predictions.

Results:

Population density problem solved. Nobody overcrowded!

Canada 6.5 people/km²

Thailand 0.00004 people/km²

Both countries have a surplus of fresh water.

Thais will form a single political party and govern Canada for many years to come. Something they were unable to do in Thailand since the introduction of democracy.

Thailand will have the same problems it has now but nobody will care.

Posters on TV will no longer be able to complain about how badly the Thais govern Thailand.

You've been reading my top secret diary.

You forgot the part about banning Karaoke and daytime TV in both countries.

[soundman]

Diesel engines can run purely off of vegetable oil with very little modification, Thailand has some of the largest sources of vegetable oil in the world.

Thailand is one of the few countries in the world that could probably, with ten years of planning & implementation, meet basic energy requirements from crop based bio-fuels.

[canuckamuck]

^

What about Quebec?

I think you will have to ask Canadiangirl to know for sure, but my guess is they will still insist on french only signs and they will have no luck getting the Thais to eat poutine. Maybe by then they will seperate and Celine Dione will be Queen. Thais like royalty.

[PeaceBlondie]

Diesel engines can run purely off of vegetable oil with very little modification, Thailand has some of the largest sources of vegetable oil in the world.

Thailand is one of the few countries in the world that could probably, with ten years of planning & implementation, meet basic energy requirements from crop based bio-fuels.

I have highlighted the most difficult part.

Texans say the same thing about Canada and Alaska: once it all melted, there wouldn't be much left.

In ten more years, China may be worse off and incapable of conquering Asia.

[soundman]

Diesel engines can run purely off of vegetable oil with very little modification, Thailand has some of the largest sources of vegetable oil in the world.

Thailand is one of the few countries in the world that could probably, with ten years of planning & implementation, meet basic energy requirements from crop based bio-fuels.

I have highlighted the most difficult part.

Texans say the same thing about Canada and Alaska: once it all melted, there wouldn't be much left.

In ten more years, China may be worse off and incapable of conquering Asia.

Considering the current state of affairs I suppose planning anything more than six months down the track is un-conceivable & not very likely to come to fruition.

[roietjimmy]

I hope that I am wrong, but Thailand might begin to look like a colony of China.

You are probably right. History repeats itself. In the 13th century when China had arguably the most advanced civilization in the world, Thailand was essentially a Chinese colony. Thailand (Ayutthaya) prospered during this period by paying "tribute" to China's Emporer in return for protection and recognition as a favored trading partner with China. What the effect on Thailand (good or bad) with China's recent status as a dominant world power remains to be seen?

[MrSnrang]

I hope that I am wrong, but Thailand might begin to look like a colony of China.

You are probably right. History repeats itself. In the 13th century when China had arguably the most advanced civilization in the world, Thailand was essentially a Chinese colony. Thailand (Ayutthaya) prospered during this period by paying "tribute" to China's Emporer in return for protection and recognition as a favored trading partner with China. What the effect on Thailand (good or bad) with China's recent status as a dominant world power remains to be seen?

It's already pretty much a colony. The government likes to follow policies of censorship, and look at most of the rich people: Ethnic Chinese.

[roietjimmy]

You've been reading my top secret diary.

You forgot the part about banning Karaoke and daytime TV in both countries.

If it's the black one "Canuckamucks Secret Dairy (Plan For Domination Of SEA)" nope, I've never seen it.

"banning Karaoke and daytime TV in both countries". My god man, you're really asking for trouble!! Advise you strike that idea from the diary I've never seen.

[Tilokarat]

The Tai states were just forming in the 13th century. Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao and Sukhothai were wresting control away from Mon and Khmer states. I forgot when U Thong (?) was said to have founded Ayuttaya, maybe in the late 14th or early 15th centuries. But, yes, all Southeast Asian states were part of the Chinese tributary system wherein China was at the top of the hierarchy and all other tributary states had to refer to themselves as inferior, ignorant barbarians when addressing Chinese officials. Later, this unequal form of diplomacy did not go over so well with the British (see the Macartney [not Paul] Mission in 1793.

The point to worry about now is that China wants to build a communications system linking Peking to Singapore to protect their oil import route. The recent negotiations with Thai and Lao officials are a step in that direction. The problem for China is that Malaysia is in the way. Perhaps they might sponsor the building of the Khra Canal, which would make Bangkok a Chinese port.

The situation is not exactly the same, but one can see how Chinese influence has penetrated, and dominated, northern Burma. China has also set up intelligence bases on some of the Burmese islands to monitor, I guess, India and U.S. movements. They have the same sort of arrangement with Pakistan now.

As the U.S.A. retreats even further from Southeast Asia, countries like Thailand and Laos will begin to look more and more to China for financial and military protection (maybe). This might explain why Vietnam is seeking closer ties with American and India. Japan is also showing concern.

Watch for developments in Thai cities like Chiang Mai and Udon Thani. If the Chinese begin to move in and set up businesses, homes and language schools (to teach Mandarin), expect to see China exert more influence and power in Thailand too.

[lannarebirth]

If the Kra Canal is ever built (and it will only be built with Chinese money), Thailand will lose it's sovereignty. There may be a thin guise of autonomy but it will be a defacto Chinese prefecture providing bluewater ports and a Malacca oil security solution. Given the dearth of women to marry for the generation coming of age now, I assume they'll be coming for some of those as well.

[captainstabbin]

If the Kra Canal is ever built (and it will only be built with Chinese money), Thailand will lose it's sovereignty. There may be a thin guise of autonomy but it will be a defacto Chinese prefecture providing bluewater ports and a Malacca oil security solution. Given the dearth of women to marry for the generation coming of age now, I assume they'll be coming for some of those as well.

Or alternatively, the Suez and Panama experience will prevail. Foreign investment followed by local sequestration...

[lannarebirth]

If the Kra Canal is ever built (and it will only be built with Chinese money), Thailand will lose it's sovereignty. There may be a thin guise of autonomy but it will be a defacto Chinese prefecture providing bluewater ports and a Malacca oil security solution. Given the dearth of women to marry for the generation coming of age now, I assume they'll be coming for some of those as well.

Or alternatively, the Suez and Panama experience will prevail. Foreign investment followed by local sequestration...

Yes, Chinese foreign investment. Maybe Middle Eastern too, laundered though some brokerage houses and private equity firms.

[Heng]

Being colonized by the Chinese doesn't necessarily make a country a colony of China. There seems to some inability by some folks to think outside the traditional definitions of colonialization. There are plenty of Huaren who have no 'still living' ties to China and certainly aren't about to start paying "tribute" anytime soon. Some maintain ties, and some simply take China with them wherever they go. Even if Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam etc. are completely run and owned by overseas Chinese, IMO it just makes them China friendly states, but hardly colonies of China in the traditional sense.

[lannarebirth]

Being colonized by the Chinese doesn't necessarily make a country a colony of China. There seems to some inability by some folks to think outside the traditional definitions of colonialization. There are plenty of Huaren who have no 'still living' ties to China and certainly aren't about to start paying "tribute" anytime soon. Some maintain ties, and some simply take China with them wherever they go. Even if Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam etc. are completely run and owned by overseas Chinese, IMO it just makes them China friendly states, but hardly colonies of China in the traditional sense.

I agree Heng, but that's bad enough. The Chinese destroy every land they touch. They never make anyplace better for their having been there, There history is one of exploitation of resources and humans. While many countries have similar histories of exploitation they have changed for the better. One never gets the sense that China or Chinese anywhere ever will.

[LaoPo]

The point to worry about now is that China wants to build a communications system linking Peking to Singapore to protect their oil import route.

1. A communications system linking Peking and Singapore ?

2. What do you mean and

3. why is that a point of worry and

4. for who ?

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Being colonized by the Chinese doesn't necessarily make a country a colony of China. There seems to some inability by some folks to think outside the traditional definitions of colonialization. There are plenty of Huaren who have no 'still living' ties to China and certainly aren't about to start paying "tribute" anytime soon. Some maintain ties, and some simply take China with them wherever they go. Even if Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam etc. are completely run and owned by overseas Chinese, IMO it just makes them China friendly states, but hardly colonies of China in the traditional sense.

I agree Heng, but that's bad enough. The Chinese destroy every land they touch. They never make anyplace better for their having been there, There history is one of exploitation of resources and humans. While many countries have similar histories of exploitation they have changed for the better. One never gets the sense that China or Chinese anywhere ever will.

It has become a kind of fashion nowadays to blame China for everything what's happening in the world. Your words prove that once more.

IMHO it's fear for China and it's economy as well as uprise after a long period of suffering and the same fear is based on news 'brought to you by your local [western] news agencies', in other words: propaganda IF it suits the West.

It's about time we realize that we live in a global world, not a single country or economy anymore.

And, as for your remark: "While many countries have similar histories of exploitation they have changed for the better"...

...Well, I could name you numerous countries (former colonies of their European 'Masters') that are still deadly poor.

Your last sentence shows that you are not well informed about China, it's history and the momentum.

But, the topic is called: Thailand in Ten years and maybe China will play an economical important role but they will not 'colonize' Thailand, ever.

LaoPo

[ColPyat]

It has become a kind of fashion nowadays to blame China for everything what's happening in the world.

Very true.

I am always amazed about the hyperbole concerning China and Chinese. First of all, China has many yet unsolved problems with its economy, such as an ever rising bubble, and its society, increasing tensions along socio-economic and regional lines, that any feared world domination is in far distant future. China has enough to do with its own problems to waste much thought on world domination.

Also, there is no "the Chinese", but people from many different regions that do widely differ in culture, language and orientation, have had, and still have many internal conflicts. Hardly any overseas Chinese at all come from the northern regions, for example, most from the southern provinces at the coast, and only recently from Zeijang as well.

Personally, the only fear i have concerning China's economical impact on the world is that far too many foreign companies have stupidly followed the hyperbole and invested heavily, while completely forgetting economical fundamentals and local conditions, and through their own fault go broke.

Many large funds and companies have already withdrawn from China, and have moved to the more stable and secure India.

If you look at the history of overseas Chinese, they have suffered tremendously, in both South and North America, and many other countries, and have proven themselves to be very valuable members of the the societies they have made their home in, contributing enormously to these economies. A few corrupt Chinese business magnates and triad members are only a small minority of overseas Chinese. The majority are just normal folks.

Chinese always had a huge economical influence in Thailand. Even during the Ayuttaya period there was a huge Chinese minority living, trading and working here. Nothing new about Chinese in Thailand.

Edited July 29, 2007 by ColPyat

[Tilokarat]

China has wanted to build road and rail links (communications) from Peking to Singapore for some time. Yunnan Province is obviously included in this. They have accomplished a link to Rangoon already. However, it is more important for China to be able to protect its oil imports through the Malaccan Straits, which is the strategic key to shipping in this part of the world. By controlling the Straits oil shipments to Japan and China can be cut off. It makes sense for China to want to have some control and input into the region strategically, militarily, economically and politically. One can say that Southeast Asia is in China's sphere of influence, and since China is emerging (or has) as an economic and military power, China is just realising its 'manifest destiny'. China recently signed a number of agreements with Thailand and Laos to build these type of communications links. In any case, any major power would want to control the Straits of Malacca. Sir Thomas Raffles saw its importance when he got Singapore for the British.

I think it could be a worry because it is an extension of Chinese power and influence in the world. China does not have a very good track record as far as human rights, equality, corruption, transparency and freedom is concerned. This is not to say that it might not change, but for the moment, memories of Mao, the KMT, the Ch'ing invasions of Burma and Vietnam are still reminders of China's imperial policy to some countries. Furthermore, anything that might lessen the sovereignty of Thailand, Burma and Laos is a cause for worry. This could happen if China gets 'control' over the communications systems and influences these countries to follow policies that are in China's. and not necessarily their own, best interests.

These are small countries, with the exception of Indonesia which is not on the mainland anyway, and it is probably natural that they would now look to China for investment, for military protection and so on. To rely on other countries does normally lead to a reduction of that country's ability to manoevre in diplomatic, economic and strategic terms.

I cannot remember how many years ago it was, but Burmese members of the League for Democracy warned the world about China in Burma. This is because China got the right to park their nucleur-armed ships at Burmese harbours. This was of interest to India. Last year, China made the same sort of deal with Pakistan. The Chinese told India not to worry, and not to fear the intelligence units set up on the islands of Burma. However, they did tell India that the Indian Ocean did not belong to them alone, in particular, since China had important oil shipments passing through that area. India responded by setting up joint military exercises with the United States in the Indian Ocean. India is now showing interest in investing in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam and Japan to counter the Chinese influence.

As some of you know, China and Thailand held joint military exercises in Kwangtung Province (south of Canton [Gwangchow]) recently (after the Thai mission to Peking returned). I have not heard of this before, and am curious as to what it means.

China is in Southeast Asia now to stay, and there is not much anyone can do about it. Whether this is good or not for the region, we will see. Up to China.

And, yes, the Chinese have made huge and useful contributions to many countries around the world. Their civilisation is one of the oldest and most impressive of all. And, yes, the Chinese were involved in Ayutthaya from the beginning. The founder might have been Chinese. In all of these countries in Southeast Asia, such as Ayutthaya, Thonburi, and the Malay States, the kings/sultans invited the Chinese in to run the economy (tax farms) whilst the peasants were made to stay on the farms. The Chinese had more freedom of movement, and opportunities to enrich themselves than the indigenous people. This is not the fault of the Chinese, or anyone, it is just what took place.

To conclude this missive, the extension of Chinese power and influence to Southeast Asia could be bad for Vietnam, Japan, the United States and India from a geo-political standpoint. It could be bad for countries like Burma, Thailand and Laos if they are drawn too closely into China's orbit. On the other hand, it might be a positive development to have some of China's dynamism and investment in Southeast Asia.

[LaoPo]

To conclude this missive, the extension of Chinese power and influence to Southeast Asia could be bad for Vietnam, Japan, the United States and India from a geo-political standpoint. It could be bad for countries like Burma, Thailand and Laos if they are drawn too closely into China's orbit.

On the other hand, it might be a positive development to have some of China's dynamism and investment in Southeast Asia.

That's exactly the positive outlook we should have, especially what Thailand is concerned.

There's no way the world can stop the machine, called China (or India for that matter), anymore.

We shouldn't fear or fight them, instead join their dynamics, as you suggested already.

The economical powers of the world, like the US, EU and Japan aren't dictating the economics anymore...they have the Far East as a Roller Coaster coming nearer and nearer.

If you can't beat them, join them, not fight or fear them.

LaoPo

[Heng]

If you can't beat them, join them, not fight or fear them.

LaoPo

That's the spirit!

[lannarebirth]

Being colonized by the Chinese doesn't necessarily make a country a colony of China. There seems to some inability by some folks to think outside the traditional definitions of colonialization. There are plenty of Huaren who have no 'still living' ties to China and certainly aren't about to start paying "tribute" anytime soon. Some maintain ties, and some simply take China with them wherever they go. Even if Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam etc. are completely run and owned by overseas Chinese, IMO it just makes them China friendly states, but hardly colonies of China in the traditional sense.

I agree Heng, but that's bad enough. The Chinese destroy every land they touch. They never make anyplace better for their having been there, There history is one of exploitation of resources and humans. While many countries have similar histories of exploitation they have changed for the better. One never gets the sense that China or Chinese anywhere ever will.

It has become a kind of fashion nowadays to blame China for everything what's happening in the world. Your words prove that once more.

IMHO it's fear for China and it's economy as well as uprise after a long period of suffering and the same fear is based on news 'brought to you by your local [western] news agencies', in other words: propaganda IF it suits the West.

It's about time we realize that we live in a global world, not a single country or economy anymore.

And, as for your remark: "While many countries have similar histories of exploitation they have changed for the better"...

...Well, I could name you numerous countries (former colonies of their European 'Masters') that are still deadly poor.

Your last sentence shows that you are not well informed about China, it's history and the momentum.

But, the topic is called: Thailand in Ten years and maybe China will play an economical important role but they will not 'colonize' Thailand, ever.

LaoPo

I didn't realizde it was fashionable to attack China. I don't read or watch most media sources and I had gathered that the opposite was true. That most observers were rather in awe of China and quite forgiving or apathetic regarding it's more inhumane tendencies. I only write what I have observed myself,for many many years, both in China and wherever the diaspora has washed up.