Google's Quantum Chip "Willow" and Bitcoin

[John Drake]

Lots of doomsayers claiming this is the death of Bitcoin. Seems slightly more nuanced than that, although it could provide a reason that some people have been looking for to exit crypto.

 

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One expert says while Willow is a significant development, it’s still far short of being a threat to crypto encryption, at least for now. https://cointelegraph.com/news/google-unveils-new-quantum-computing-chip-clock-ticking-crypto-encryption

 

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• Google unveils Willow, a 105-qubit quantum chip with groundbreaking performance, sparking debates about Bitcoin security.
• Experts clarify that breaking Bitcoin encryption requires millions of qubits, far beyond Willow's capabilities.
• Crypto developers are already working on quantum-resistant solutions, ensuring Bitcoin remains secure for years to come. https://beincrypto.com/willow-quantum-computing-crack-bitcoin-encryption/

 

[jas007]

"At least for now.."  

 

Supposedly, this new chip could provide a means to "brute force" its way past the traditional encryption of the blockchain.  That's been a concern for years, but now it may be possible.  

 

Anyway, although I do have some Bitcoin and some other cryptos, I haven't actively followed the space e lately.

 

Assuming the concern is valid, have they now developed any additional layers of protection over and above the traditional passwords? 

[John Drake]

29 minutes ago, jas007 said:

"At least for now.."  

 

Supposedly, this new chip could provide a means to "brute force" its way past the traditional encryption of the blockchain.  That's been a concern for years, but now it may be possible.  

 

Anyway, although I do have some Bitcoin and some other cryptos, I haven't actively followed the space e lately.

 

Assuming the concern is valid, have they now developed any additional layers of protection over and above the traditional passwords? 

 

I think those issues are addressed in the above links. And remember this is only Google's "latest" quantum chip. It's a developmental increase over what was already there. IMO this news will be used to generate a selloff. Too many people never investigate either what they are holding or the news that appears on their screen. Many of them are FOMO-ing, too, and it only takes a slight trigger to turn that around. One other thing: if quantum computers are ever able to access bitcoin safeguards, then crypto will be the least of our problems. There are many other encryptions/passwords/authenticators for everything from bank accounts to your Tops 1 Card that will fall prey long before crypto does. And if that happens, we'll all need to return to writing checks and withdrawing/depositing cash in person.

[uncletiger]

The Willow announcement was an interesting event, but it is no threat at all to Bitcoin mining.

 

First, there is no general purpose, 105 qubit computer today. Willow is a specially constructed chip that runs a test circuit called Random Circuit Sampling. This is a performance metric intentionally constructed to provide the maximum possible advantage to quantum computers and thus verify theoretical performance. You can't run Grover's Algorithm on it, even at 105 qubits, let alone the approximately 2 billion qubits you would need to find a SHA-256 preimage in a 10 minutes blocktime.

 

Don't get me wrong. It is a fantastic engineering accomplishment and a great step on the road towards quantum computers. But these people saying 2-5 years out are delusional.

 

But let's say I'm wrong. 2 years from now, someone suddenly builds a quantum computer that is pretty fast. It still has to beat the combined conventional mining power of the entire planet. How many of these computers do you think they'll be able to deploy quickly?

 

And even if you disagree with everything I've said so far, you can fork Bitcoin in a week to replace SHA-256 with SHA-512 or SHA-1024. That will render most of the ASIC miners irrelevant, but it will also render the quantum computer irrelevant. And the conventional miners can be replaced in months. The quantum computers will need to square or quandruple the number of qubits to catch up. So instead of circa 2 billion, you'll need up to 16 Undecilion qubits. (Yes, there really are names that go that high it 10^36). Or even if you believe the ridiculous number of 8000 "something's" that was thrown around on one tweet, you'll now need 400 trillion "something's".

 

So mining is a non issue. At bigger risk is the failure of every public key cryptography system on the planet. Bitcoin will be the least of your problems.

 

The point is, this is all FUD. Everyone involved in Bitcoin is very aware of the quantum computing issue. Satoshi was aware of it in 2009 when he wrote the paper. There are dozens of proposals for how to resolve it. The only reason a solution hasn't been selected yet is because there is no reason to worry about it yet.

 

TL;DR:  Bitcoin is safe. Don't worry.