Football, Meat Pies, Kangaroos and ...

[wilcopops]

There are a lot of people playing the blame game now. Politicians will have a field day.....and of course some blinkered individuals will blame the unions.

The truth is that there are many factors involved here and this has been coming for decades. I left Oz 10 years ago and I said then that the industry was doomed. Of course a lot of people couldn't conceive that any party would want to preside over the demise of an Aussie icon brand...let alone deal with the unemployment and business failure fallout.

All the other companies that have pulled out...Ford, Mitsu, Nissan Leyland etc etc might have given someone a clue, but GM had a special niche in that they were branded under an Aussie name so they were able to use this to screw more and more money out of successive governments. But in the end it comes down to product, and much as I love the Aussie muscle cars, they are completely unsellable on a world market and could never reach the numbers required for a viable operation

[wilcopops]

Furthermore, you can't blame the TAFTA for the lack of vehicle exports into Thailand. That blame lays fair and square with the Thai Government and their over zealous excise tax.

In relation to the car industry and the TAFTA deal, someone in Australia has to put their hand up and say "I was the knucklehead that knew nothing about where the automotive industry was headed, and believed so strongly that the Commodore and Falcon would never die, that I agreed to a clause limiting our duty-free export of cars to ones with engines > 3,000cc, and accepted a 6% import duty on smaller engined cars that we gave them 0% on"....

There wasn't too many people in the industry at the time that didn't shake their heads at that one (people outside of Australia and USA that is).

Quite simply they knew that regardless of duty they would never sell a big car in Thailand. Much bigger fish to fry than a limp industry employing a few thousand.

[Jitar]

The main difference was that the Japanese industry was determined to sell to the world, whereas Holdens ambition was to sell a Ute to a farmer in Back O' Burke.

hehe

We hire people in Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. Out of them, it's the Malays and the Aussies whose ambition seems to be to do the minimum work for maximum pay, so it all stands to reason

Australians and Malays may be good at minimum work for max pay but there's plenty of examples in LOS demonstrating they don't have a monopoly on it.

This thread reminds me of some of the media coverage of Holden and Ford's demise. I wonder if there is a prosperous car industry anywhere in the world that does not have import protection and / or subsidies ?

Bah, that was just to rev up wilcopops some more All staff are lazy

Good point in your second paragraph though, I don't specialise in all markets, but perhaps Spain is one example.

Doesn't Spain have a few subsidies, probably small compared to the rest of the EU ? Spain has been through some very tough times with unempoyment at ridiculous levels. The Euro is also at the opposite end of it's cycle compared to the AUD.

Cynics could suggest car companies are rent seeking opportunists, but that would be a bit harsh.

FT did a recent article on the recovery of the Spanish Auto industry http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/155f4564-42ec-11e3-8350-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2nJKJ0j00 Some extracts below show a dramatic difference in approach to Australia.

The government has been quick to claim credit for the recent investment boom. Car executives and union leaders point out that the shift towards wage moderation and flexible working practices was enshrined in a series of collective deals in the early years of the crisis.

Across Spain’s car industry, factories are now much better able to adapt to the production peaks and troughs. They send their staff home when there is little to do, and make them work longer hours when assembly lines are humming. Working hours can even be shifted between different years.

Such flexibility, Mr Armero says, was “unthinkable” a decade ago. No less striking have been some of the recent wage deals. The new employees in Valencia receive 16 per cent less pay than their colleagues. Unusually for the car industry, where nine out of 10 work contracts are permanent, the new workers have been hired on temporary contracts. According to union calculations, wages across the industry are now at the same level as in 2008.

For union leaders, such concessions have not always been easy to swallow. But Mariano Cerezo, the federal secretary of Spain’s MCA-UGT metal workers’ union, argues that the decision to strike long-term labour deals with the motor industry has served companies and workers alike. “There are no workers’ rights without work,” he says.

Edited December 13, 2013 by Jitar

[IMHO]

Doesn't Spain have a few subsidies, probably small compared to the rest of the EU ? Spain has been through some very tough times with unempoyment at ridiculous levels. The Euro is also at the opposite end of it's cycle compared to the AUD.

Cynics could suggest car companies are rent seeking opportunists, but that would be a bit harsh.

FT did a recent article on the recovery of the Spanish Auto industry http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/155f4564-42ec-11e3-8350-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2nJKJ0j00 Some extracts below show a dramatic difference in approach to Australia.

The government has been quick to claim credit for the recent investment boom. Car executives and union leaders point out that the shift towards wage moderation and flexible working practices was enshrined in a series of collective deals in the early years of the crisis.

Across Spain’s car industry, factories are now much better able to adapt to the production peaks and troughs. They send their staff home when there is little to do, and make them work longer hours when assembly lines are humming. Working hours can even be shifted between different years.

Such flexibility, Mr Armero says, was “unthinkable” a decade ago. No less striking have been some of the recent wage deals. The new employees in Valencia receive 16 per cent less pay than their colleagues. Unusually for the car industry, where nine out of 10 work contracts are permanent, the new workers have been hired on temporary contracts. According to union calculations, wages across the industry are now at the same level as in 2008.

For union leaders, such concessions have not always been easy to swallow. But Mariano Cerezo, the federal secretary of Spain’s MCA-UGT metal workers’ union, argues that the decision to strike long-term labour deals with the motor industry has served companies and workers alike. “There are no workers’ rights without work,” he says.

Yep, the only truly meaningful subsidy program Spain uses is a (seemingly perpetually extended) scrappage scheme to boost domestic sales. Outside of that they have simply learnt how to be flexible and make business models work - as per your post

Economic uncertainty and huge unemployment seem to be an effective cure for the "entitled employee"

Edited December 13, 2013 by IMHO

[IMHO]

Furthermore, you can't blame the TAFTA for the lack of vehicle exports into Thailand. That blame lays fair and square with the Thai Government and their over zealous excise tax.

In relation to the car industry and the TAFTA deal, someone in Australia has to put their hand up and say "I was the knucklehead that knew nothing about where the automotive industry was headed, and believed so strongly that the Commodore and Falcon would never die, that I agreed to a clause limiting our duty-free export of cars to ones with engines > 3,000cc, and accepted a 6% import duty on smaller engined cars that we gave them 0% on"....

There wasn't too many people in the industry at the time that didn't shake their heads at that one (people outside of Australia and USA that is).

Quite simply they knew that regardless of duty they would never sell a big car in Thailand. Much bigger fish to fry than a limp industry employing a few thousand.

Sure, but accepting a 6% duty on car exported from Oz, and giving 0% duty in return on the same doesn't appear to be a decision that was forward-looking or beneficial to the Oz industry.

Who know what goes on behind closed doors. Perhaps they decided all the way back in the mid-90's that Oz manufacturing was going to die anyway, so didn't care to fight that much over it?

[wilcopops]

Furthermore, you can't blame the TAFTA for the lack of vehicle exports into Thailand. That blame lays fair and square with the Thai Government and their over zealous excise tax.

In relation to the car industry and the TAFTA deal, someone in Australia has to put their hand up and say "I was the knucklehead that knew nothing about where the automotive industry was headed, and believed so strongly that the Commodore and Falcon would never die, that I agreed to a clause limiting our duty-free export of cars to ones with engines > 3,000cc, and accepted a 6% import duty on smaller engined cars that we gave them 0% on"....

There wasn't too many people in the industry at the time that didn't shake their heads at that one (people outside of Australia and USA that is).

Quite simply they knew that regardless of duty they would never sell a big car in Thailand. Much bigger fish to fry than a limp industry employing a few thousand.

Sure, but accepting a 6% duty on car exported from Oz, and giving 0% duty in return on the same doesn't appear to be a decision that was forward-looking or beneficial to the Oz industry.

Who know what goes on behind closed doors. Perhaps they decided all the way back in the mid-90's that Oz manufacturing was going to die anyway, so didn't care to fight that much over it?

As I said it was part of a bigger deal; the FTA wasn't just about cars - a trade-off and the negotiators probably had other more important aspects to cover than a motor industry that had nothing to sell Thailand.

The introduction of this agreement doesn't happen overnight, it spans 15 years...

Edited December 13, 2013 by wilcopops

[IMHO]

As I said it was part of a bigger deal; the FTA wasn't just about cars - a trade-off and the negotiators probably had other more important aspects to cover than a motor industry that had nothing to sell Thailand.

The introduction of this agreement doesn't happen overnight, it spans 15 years...

Doesn't change the fact that the concession was considered and made. Not disagreeing with you, but someone decided the Aust car manufacturing industry wasn't worth backing back in the 90's. Sounds like you agree, again, just can't say it

Edited December 13, 2013 by IMHO

[Jitar]

The car industry and Manufacturing in general have not been the focus in Australia for years but that is not a very good excuse for taking a poor deal. Considering the bigger picture, the Thai FTA has not been pretty ordinary for Australia. The ANU did a report a couple of years ago that concluded in part, TAFTA has contributed to a notable expansion of trade between Thailand and Australia. However, the expansion has occurred predominantly on the import side; there is no discernable deviation from the pre-TAFTA trends and patterns on the export side. The expansion of imports are predominantly accounted for by motor vehicles, with only few other products showing faster growth.

Seems Thailand has done a much better job of negotiating and exploiting the FTA. Australia is negotiating more FTA's so they need to improve.

[Chao Lao Beach]

I can't image Oz without Commodores and Falcons.

I mean, really

Next they will be selling Qantas to the Arabs. (Oh, a bad satire example !!!)

[IMHO]

The car industry and Manufacturing in general have not been the focus in Australia for years but that is not a very good excuse for taking a poor deal. Considering the bigger picture, the Thai FTA has not been pretty ordinary for Australia. The ANU did a report a couple of years ago that concluded in part, TAFTA has contributed to a notable expansion of trade between Thailand and Australia. However, the expansion has occurred predominantly on the import side; there is no discernable deviation from the pre-TAFTA trends and patterns on the export side. The expansion of imports are predominantly accounted for by motor vehicles, with only few other products showing faster growth.

Seems Thailand has done a much better job of negotiating and exploiting the FTA. Australia is negotiating more FTA's so they need to improve.

Here's a snippet from the recent KAFTA fact sheet (Korea Australian FTA), no doubt the final nail in Holdens' coffin:

SENSITIVE SECTORS

It is true that some sectors may face increased competition from imports of Korean products and services,

such as motor vehicles, automotive parts, steel products and textiles, clothing and footwear. This impact will

be in line with the progressive liberalisation already underway in the Australia economy.

Edited December 13, 2013 by IMHO

[wilcopops]

As I said it was part of a bigger deal; the FTA wasn't just about cars - a trade-off and the negotiators probably had other more important aspects to cover than a motor industry that had nothing to sell Thailand.

The introduction of this agreement doesn't happen overnight, it spans 15 years...

Doesn't change the fact that the concession was considered and made. Not disagreeing with you, but someone decided the Aust car manufacturing industry wasn't worth backing back in the 90's. Sounds like you agree, again, just can't say it

I was of the opinion in the 90s that the Oz motor industry was being badly managed and that it made nothing worth selling for export. others would agree. I think either you weren't making a point at all or you were implying that the concessions given to Thailand were in some way responsible for the demise of the industry - I think that they were looking at it as part of an overall deal and felt that it would have little or no effect on the industry compared to the advantages for Oz elsewhere in the overall deal. I don't think it was even a concession really it was just part of the plan for the FTA.

[wilcopops]

The car industry and Manufacturing in general have not been the focus in Australia for years but that is not a very good excuse for taking a poor deal. Considering the bigger picture, the Thai FTA has not been pretty ordinary for Australia. The ANU did a report a couple of years ago that concluded in part, TAFTA has contributed to a notable expansion of trade between Thailand and Australia. However, the expansion has occurred predominantly on the import side; there is no discernable deviation from the pre-TAFTA trends and patterns on the export side. The expansion of imports are predominantly accounted for by motor vehicles, with only few other products showing faster growth.

Seems Thailand has done a much better job of negotiating and exploiting the FTA. Australia is negotiating more FTA's so they need to improve.

Here's a snippet from the recent KAFTA fact sheet (Korea Australian FTA), no doubt the final nail in Holdens' coffin:

SENSITIVE SECTORS

It is true that some sectors may face increased competition from imports of Korean products and services,

such as motor vehicles, automotive parts, steel products and textiles, clothing and footwear. This impact will

be in line with the progressive liberalisation already underway in the Australia economy.

GM are shutting down a plant in Korea too.

[wilcopops]

As i said earlier the agreement takes effect over 15 years....

"TAFTA will eventually lead to the complete elimination of Thailand’s significant tariffs across all sectors. When the Agreement took effect more than half of Thailand’s 5,000 tariffs – accounting for nearly 80 per cent of Australian exports - were eliminated."

it will also effect visas and work permits

Here's a brief summary...

Overall

• Upon TAFTA's entry into force on 1 January 2005, Thailand eliminated its tariffs on some 2,934 tariff items, around 53% of all items, accounting for 78% of current Thai imports from Australia. Of these, only 206 items were previously duty free.
• A further 41% of Thai tariffs were phased to zero in 2010. These items cover 17% of current trade.
• All remaining tariffs, including tariff rate quotas, will phase to zero in 2015 or 2020, with the exception of skim milk powder and liquid milk and cream, for which the tariff rate quotas will be eliminated in 2025.
• For agricultural products subject to tariff rate quotas prior to 1 January 2005, Thailand has either eliminated the tariff and quota restrictions or will expand access for Australia over a transition period varying according to the product, before final elimination of the tariff rate quota.

Edited December 13, 2013 by wilcopops

[wilcopops]

Australia could follow the Thai model or the UK example.UK had a crap industry producing crap cars largely for a home market which ran out of ....well everything!

It now produces more vehicles than ever before and has a huge number of British and foreign owned brands exporting all over the world.

Australia was a bit like a teenager who'd won the lottery when it came to the commodities boom, and now they are just beginning to see that at best that was only a small part of the national economy.

BTW - can anyone say where the money's gone? You can hardly see it in national infrastructure or anything for the future....apart from a lot of holes that'll need filling.

...and some clarification......

Automotive

• Thailand immediately eliminated tariffs on large passenger motor vehicles (engine capacity of over 3000cc) and goods vehicles, previously at 80% and 60% respectively. For other passenger motor vehicles, Thailand immediately reduced the previous 80% tariff to 30%, before phasing this down by 6% each year to zero in 2010.
• Tariffs on all automotive parts, components and accessories, previously up to 42%, were immediately reduced to a ceiling of 20%, and will be phased to zero by 2010. Tariffs on engines were immediately reduced from the previous 30% to 15%. Other tariffs previously at or below 20% were also immediately reduced and phased down accordingly.

Edited December 13, 2013 by wilcopops

[OZEMADE]

Well it didn't take long, Toyota are asking for Union and Gov help to keep running after the Federal court put a stop to the employees taking a drop in wages to try and keep the company running. Well that is part of it, they Toyota are already on the ropes, the knock out punch is still to come. The Gov however did say that they will talk figures next week with Toyota.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-needs-union-govt-help-225304227.html

Edited December 13, 2013 by OZEMADE

[wilcopops]

Well it didn't take long, Toyota are asking for Union and Gov help to keep running after the Federal court put a stop to the employees taking a drop in wages to try and keep the company running. Well that is part of it, they Toyota are already on the ropes, the knock out punch is still to come. The Gov however did say that they will talk figures next week with Toyota.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-needs-union-govt-help-225304227.html

win-win for toyota

[Spoonman]

A quick check on the respective websites (Chev Thailand/Holden Australia) reveals a base spec Cruze is cheaper by nearly Bt.175,000 in Australia !!!!!

[Ace of Pop]

I find the thought of No Falcons or Commodores rather depressing. They are "True Ozz", like Utes , Barbies and Roos. They will shut down Bathurst next,and ban surfing. .

[Spoonman]

I find the thought of No Falcons or Commodores rather depressing. They are "True Ozz", like Utes , Barbies and Roos. They will shut down Bathurst next,and ban surfing. .

Don't know why they would shut down Bathurst when they currently have both Nissan and Mercedes fielding teams this year and Volvo to come on board soon.....

Good to see some variety back at the mountain to be honest.

Edited December 15, 2013 by Spoonman

[Jitar]

Like Ace, I reckon the end of the Falcon and Commodore is sad too. Decent size rear wheel drive cars with larger engines have become rare this side of $$$$$ Benz, BM or upmarket Jap wannabes like Lexus & Infinity.

Sadly the variety in racing is only skin deep. For many years the old Australian touring cars had a pretty strong connection to the road cars and plenty of different models. That faded away and morphed in to the V8 Supercars which have little in common with the road going models and no variety. Presumably Ford and Holden will field something at Bathurst, for marketing purposes, probably some FWD sedan (Cruze or Mondeo) panels stuck on the COTF, Nascar style chassis.

[MK1]

Technically speaking as a car manufacturing plant, If Holden was back in Australian-ownership-hands, it could probable survive through the current economic climate, since GM only came into the picture, by merging with Holden, as result of the great depression in 1931.

Back then, there was not the type of Super-Funds around to alternatively attract other local investors to help survive through the tough times. However, these days workers industry Superannuation Funds significantly influence and dominate the Australian economy. In particular, making more profit for workers than the car manufacturers and some have had outstanding success by investing back in their own industry like Cbus.

If the AWU had any brains they should have told their members to instruct their Super Fund managers to start investing back in their own industry by buying back the very plants GM acquired in the first place.

But unfortunately, we know GM would never allow that to happen just like the Australian Meat Industry which has been aggravated too in the global market, by the American competition, such as restricting access to selling beef into their own-market.

Back in the 90’s, certain American owned Meat Manufacturing plants in Australia were moth-balled and shutdown too in the same way in preference over controlling the price of beef into markets like Japan.

The weakness of Australian Foreign ownership laws and FTA's are perhaps to be blamed.

Edited December 15, 2013 by MK1

[OZEMADE]

I find the thought of No Falcons or Commodores rather depressing. They are "True Ozz", like Utes , Barbies and Roos. They will shut down Bathurst next,and ban surfing. .

I see where Ford are going to sell the Mustang in OZ in 2015, the 6 cylinder turbo and the big V8, both in manual and auto transmission. So I would say they will be at Bathurst with other makes in the near future.

[OZEMADE]

I find the thought of No Falcons or Commodores rather depressing. They are "True Ozz", like Utes , Barbies and Roos. They will shut down Bathurst next,and ban surfing. .

I see where Ford are going to sell the Mustang in OZ in 2015, the 6 cylinder turbo and the big V8, both in manual and auto transmission. So I would say they will be at Bathurst with other makes in the near future.

My blew it's not a 6 cylinder turbo, it's a 4 cylinder turbo Mustang.

http://au.search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0SO81pm0K1S728AoykL5gt.;_ylu=X3oDMTByaDNhc2JxBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2dxMQR2dGlkAw--/SIG=13ch1f09a/EXP=1387151590/**http%3a//news.drive.com.au/drive/motor-news/ford-mustang-for-australia-20120413-1wxil.html

[NanLaew]

Thailand already manufacture the Isuzu/Badged Holden Rodeo for OZ conditions, ... the only difference was that you could have a petrol donk in the Holden Ranger if you requested it.

Errrrr no.

Holden sell the Chevrolet Colorado.

Holden Ranger?

[Ace of Pop]

The Germans can see their own Porsche and Benz Brands running at Nurburgring , Italy can watch their National Pride Ferrari run at Monza, Ozzie Hearts will jump with Joy to see their new Peter Brocks and Alan Grices Commodores and Falcons replaced by To Jo in his Nissan, and an Yank Accountant in a Cruze.

[Spoonman]

Some of the best racing on the mountain was when the Nissan's were dominating.

[Ace of Pop]

Indeed, Nissan cant be thrilled either ,they came back to race the Big 2,not join a One Make Race.

[wilcopops]

Indeed, Nissan cant be thrilled either ,they came back to race the Big 2,not join a One Make Race.

Think you'll find they came to promote their products

Edited December 16, 2013 by wilcopops

[Spoonman]

Indeed, Nissan cant be thrilled either ,they came back to race the Big 2,not join a One Make Race.

Not really a one make race with Mercedes already running and Volvo looming in the shadows ready to field a team.

[Ace of Pop]

Those 2 Chimps wont worry Mighty Nissan.