Thailand in a strange state, as countdown to AEC looms

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EDITORIAL
Thailand in a strange state, as countdown to AEC looms
The Nation

Confused and befuddled by a debilitating political divide, the kingdom has a lot more than regional business on its mind

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is, arguably, the country with with best geographic location in the Asean Economic Community that will be set up in the not-too-distant future.

In addition, the nation's economic strength is better than many in the region. But in terms of positive factors, that's about it. The AEC countdown waits for nobody, and one thing is sure: Thailand will not make great strides into uncharted territory. Many people may blame domestic politics, but it's just one of a few negatives concerning the Kingdom.

Let's count the factors that could hamper Thailand's AEC ambitions. Insurgency problems in the deep South may prove more troublesome than they have been. There's also a trust issue with Singapore, where Thaksin Shinawatra has popped in and out. Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar will be drawn closer together economically and they consider Thailand to be anything but a trustworthy pal.

Laos hates Thailand's "superiority complex" while Cambodia won't easily forget everything that happened over the past few years. Vietnam is fast becoming a fierce competitor on many fronts. And despite having a large number of migrant workers in Thailand, Myanmar does not have the strongest economic and political ties with us. Language versatility is not Thailand's strong suit.

Foreign investment is still siable and bigger than many AEC countries but political uncertainties are not helping. Foreign labour can become a highly-complicated issue and the country's attractiveness as an offshore production base for firms from other countries has gone down. And when it comes to an ageing population, Thailand and Singapore stand out, although the latter boasts a lot more positives to compensate that.

Then there is the issue of transparency, which foreign investors give a lot of importance to. Some AEC countries are worse off corruption-wise but Thailand is also far from being the region's least corrupt nation. While close competitors are trying to put their houses in order, Thailand appears to be having trouble deciding what corruption is and talk about this is simply political "smearing".

The good news, though, is that the AEC a marathon undertaking, not a 100-metre sprint. The blossoming of a regional market will make an immediate impact on economic and social lives but there are long-term issues that allow changes of plans, reconsideration and fixing of mistakes.

Thailand will be hoping to ride out its own political storms and maintain its status as a key regional economic hub. A lot, though, will depend on the domestic reform process, which has yet to even begin. Bad news is that while Thailand's strengths may have served it well before the AEC, they may not necessarily be big advantages when the regional trade liberalisation scheme kicks in.

And while weaknesses like a lack of language skills and border problems with neighbours may have been overlooked prior to the AEC, these things may come to haunt Thailand big time after the free market is in place.

Tourism may gain, but the farming sector faces a rough ride. AEC will challenge friendships, pitting them against economic interests, throughout the region. Thailand is not the only one to be forced to strike a balance between business competition and the ties that really bond the regional neighbours.

How big of a role sincerity or mutual trust will play when AEC begins remains to be seen. But indications are that such a role will be substantial. Thailand, with its great geography, holds no advantage in terms of relationships.

Some problems have been caused by our own making but others not. As the country looks at infrastructure, business powers and legal complexities in preparation to the AEC being set up, it's worth noting that the human aspects require attention too.

Countries in our region are more or less ready for the big change, and every nation is anxious. Thailand, however, is in a peculiar place. Many factors are adding to our nervy prelude to the grand regional scheme, and not all of them are related to business.


-- The Nation 2014-06-23

[antimedia]

What is it about Thai journalism that makes it so pathetic. Correct me if I am wrong, but are we not at the beginning of wholesale changes in this country, but the media still insist on reporting yesterday and yesteryear doom and gloom as though nothing has happened. Pathetic third rate news institutions with fakes parading as reporters.

[Chris Lawrence]

Thats a good idea, join a group of countries that are potential teir 3 countries and Thailand won't look as bad?

Shins in 3rd parragraph? They are the problem which the Nation will never let anyone forget; not because he took the advertising money off them and didn't they get sued?

My theory on the Nation is that it will send you blind or one comes up with statements like the failed beauty queen.

What is being reported in other press?

[bigbamboo]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

[doctorproc156]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

With the exception of Thailand and Cambodia, I think all the other ASEAN members get along fine. And Cambodia didn't even do anything, so it really just is Thailand that is the problem.

[Kanthralak 1]

What about the currency. What will it be????

[sootybrown]

What about the currency. What will it be????

With any luck Indonesian Rupiah 20,374 to the pound, 50 quid and your a millionaire.

[jbaldwin]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

There is a big difference. The EU commission employees 24,000. The ASEAN secretariat 260.

This is not the EU.

The biggest change is Zero import duties on most good and services but currently its no more than 5% between the original ASEAN countries.

There will be free movement of SKILLED workers but skilled workers have no problem getting work permit now.

Nothing important changes.

[PhilipCook]

Can imagine that words like "strange" are frowned upon by the greenshirts, watch it Nation!

[Thai at Heart]

And......

zero opinion as to whether the whole thing is a good or a bad idea. Just aimless musings about the idea.

In some industries, Thailand is going to get quite a wake up call. I don't know how long it's going to take for employees in some industries to start moving, but I would imagine it might be quite quick.

Tourism and say nursing will probably be first.

[ramrod711]

Language versatility is not Thailand's strong suit.

Thai ladies that work in bars are quite fluent, I've known them to speak multiple languages when money was on the table. Perhaps the next government can draw linguists from their ranks.

[ppmacready]

What is it about Thai journalism that makes it so pathetic. Correct me if I am wrong, but are we not at the beginning of wholesale changes in this country, but the media still insist on reporting yesterday and yesteryear doom and gloom as though nothing has happened. Pathetic third rate news institutions with fakes parading as reporters.

I hope you are right and the changes are not just cosmetic.

Personally I can't see the elite welcoming much change unless its back to 'their' old ways of doing business.

Biggest change needed is over haul the education system.

I can't see the elite favouring that!

[tonbridgebrit]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

There is a big difference. The EU commission employees 24,000. The ASEAN secretariat 260.

This is not the EU.

The biggest change is Zero import duties on most good and services but currently its no more than 5% between the original ASEAN countries.

There will be free movement of SKILLED workers but skilled workers have no problem getting work permit now.

Nothing important changes.

Right, the European Union, as we all know, has freedom of movement of all workers. So, ASEAN is not going to have freedom of movement of all workers. As in, un-skilled workers are not going to have freedom of movement.

Right now, a stack of Cambodians have left Thailand. It appears to be that all the registered ones will be coming back soon. What about all the illegal ones ? It appears to be that they are all going to get registered, and they will be coming back legally. Hold on, so everybody in Cambodia who enters Thailand illegally can go back home to Cambodia, and then come back to Thailand and work legally. Isn't this, basically, scrapping the border between Thailand and Cambodia ? And if they do this between Thailand and Cambodia, well, they might end up doing it for Thailand and Burma as well. And Thailand and Laos as well !

(I'm trying to make you laugh).

[jbaldwin]

And......

zero opinion as to whether the whole thing is a good or a bad idea. Just aimless musings about the idea.

In some industries, Thailand is going to get quite a wake up call. I don't know how long it's going to take for employees in some industries to start moving, but I would imagine it might be quite quick.

Tourism and say nursing will probably be first.

Foreign nurses and doctors will still need to be able to speak Thai. Language requirement will be be removed.

I am also not sure what "tourist" qualification will be accept as evidence that someone is skilled in that area.

[belg]

thailand will no doubt, change the rules in their favor when it suits them

[Thai at Heart]

And......

zero opinion as to whether the whole thing is a good or a bad idea. Just aimless musings about the idea.

In some industries, Thailand is going to get quite a wake up call. I don't know how long it's going to take for employees in some industries to start moving, but I would imagine it might be quite quick.

Tourism and say nursing will probably be first.

Foreign nurses and doctors will still need to be able to speak Thai. Language requirement will be be removed.

I am also not sure what "tourist" qualification will be accept as evidence that someone is skilled in that area.

Not sure it will be an absolute requisite to speak Thai to be a nurse. Tourism as far as I know extends to hotel staff and the such.

I fully expect thaiald to put up as many barriers to entry as it can, but I can easily imagine an exodus of qualified people to higher paying jobs in Singapore and elsewhere.

The barriers won't stay up long though. It defeats the point of doing anything at all.

[TPI]

So far there has not been a mention of the Thai export and import monopolies on almost every commodity. These monopolies are held by both civilian and "other" entities! Where does the present government stand (sic) on rooting out these monopolies and opening the country to fair trade??

[Maggusoil]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

[Maggusoil]

Here is how things are in Thailand

Yes, throw another seaman off a prawn boat and get some Thia white under your belt. . . things should be OK

[Maggusoil]

Oh by the way. Those that do not understand English. The former comment has satyrical and rhetorical elements in the construction of the ideas.

You should be familiar with these concepts before stringing me out on your ignorance of the language.

Wry humour? Anybody?

[Maggusoil]

Join Project Issara, a Thai based initiative to end modern slavery, and institute a zero tolerance policy on slavery."

[northernjohn]

Well I read the article and all the posts.

I came to the conclusion that the article was pre coup and the posters are unaware of it also.

Times are changing in Thailand there is a new sheriff in town.

Also the younger generation coming up is more aware of the possibilities out there for them and will not be so willing to except the status quo.

This is a subject that would be better discussed in 6 months when we can actually see what difference the junta has made or not made.

[Pralaad]

Some facts that are missing is that while many international giants are set up in Thailand , there is no guarantee they will not pack up and move to neighboring countries where they can have 100 % ownership, land titles , tax rebates and labor who wants to work at a cheaper rates.

Packing up and taking skilled people will also not be a problem from all of ASEAN countries .

Thailand really has done little to nothing to prepare and to me it's more of a " may be get lucky attitude " which I do not think will pass with hungry, striving neighbors

[rametindallas]

There you go. The AEC is no different to the EU.

A bunch of countries who come together for mutual understanding, co-operation and trade......and who hate each other.

With the exception of Thailand and Cambodia, I think all the other ASEAN members get along fine. And Cambodia didn't even do anything, so it really just is Thailand that is the problem.

I think the other countries in ASEAN have some issues with Cambodia as, when they were chairman of the last meeting, They would not table discussion of a general agreement on the use of the South China Sea as a group and make a mutually acceptable treaty with clear guidelines. Cambodia sided with China for China to deal with each country unilaterally which would always be an uneven match. I don't think they will forget Cambodia's stance soon. So, you are correct that Cambodia didn't do anything... positive.

The pressure on Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia to send workers to Thailand is intense as they do not have enough work in their countries to employ their citizens, whereas, Thailand has 0.05% unemployment and lack of workers is the only thing keeping Thailand from expanding faster. With the infrastructure improvements now approved and workers soon able to take the new jobs in Thailand, Thailand will grow faster that the other members as long as politicians don't get too involved.

[Chernsarmkhuat]

Oh by the way. Those that do not understand English. The former comment has satyrical and rhetorical elements in the construction of the ideas.

You should be familiar with these concepts before stringing me out on your ignorance of the language.

Wry humour? Anybody?

It's strangely not surprising that a cigar smoking canine has such an eloquent vocabulary. Ah the penny doth drop, it must be the resemblance to Churchill.