Thailand narrowly avoids technical recession

[webfact]

Thailand narrowly avoids technical recession

(BBC) Thailand's economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the second quarter, suggesting the country may be back on the path to growth following a military coup in May.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.9% in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter.

On an annual basis, the Thai economy grew by 0.4% from a year earlier.

Months of political turmoil before the coup caused a drop in exports, foreign investment and tourism.

Krystal Tan from Capital Economics said the coup helped calm political unrest and boost confidence in the economy.

"Growth is set to pick up further in the coming quarters, but it will take time for the recovery to gain a firmer footing," she said.

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28831843


-- BBC 2014-08-18

[terryp]

dont worry there will be one along soon

[Sena Dave]

I though all Recessions had to be Technically a Recession to then be a recession in practice ?

So the headline should be "Thailand narrowly avoids recession"

[up-country_sinclair]

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.9% in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter.

Dead cat bounce?

[jonclark]

Good so there was some economic growth.

However I can't help but wonder how much of this was sustainable economic growth and how much growth was a result of the late payment to farmers feeding down into the wider economy. I hope its not a blip, as so many of the less well off in society are often those the most directly affected by economic downturns. And those same people have very little voice when it comes to the decision making process in the country.

Avoiding a recession is welcome news indeed. Lets hope this growth is sustainable.

[pmugghc]

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.9% in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter.

Dead cat bounce?

Why do you think that? Consumer confidence up, baht stronger, Thai stock exchange forecasted to continue up, exports up.

" GDP growth momentum is likely to pick up in late 2014". Source:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0GI05O20140818?irpc=932

[webfact]

Thailand avoids recession with 0.9 percent Q2 growth

BANGKOK, August 18, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand dodged recession as its economy grew 0.9 percent in the second quarter, data showed Monday, after the military ended months of political deadlock with a coup and promised to unshackle state spending.

Between April and June the economy grew 0.9 percent after shrinking a revised 1.9 percent in the first quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board reported.

The junta, under coup-leading Army Chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha, has pegged its legitimacy to improving the economy after months of political protests paralysed government spending, scared off tourists and battered consumer spending.

Since seizing power on May 22, Prayut has opened state coffers -- kick-starting stalled investment projects and paying debts to rice farmers to help spur agriculture.

On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew 0.4 percent after contracting by 0.6 percent in the earlier quarter, NESDB said.

Despite the positive momentum, the board trimmed its growth outlook for 2014, forecasting 1.5-2.0 percent expansion, down from a previous estimate of 1.5-2.5 percent.

The board said the political turmoil of the first five months of 2014 would likely cause the economy to "perform below its potential" over the full year, with tourism numbers and car sales still disappointing.

The lucrative tourism sector was hammered by the protests and subsequent military takeover, with visitor numbers down just over 12 percent year-on-year.

But Thai tourism officials have been at pains to reassure visitors that the country is safe, despite the retention of tough martial laws across the kingdom.

On Monday, an army-appointed National Legislative Assembly began the process of agreeing a budget for 2015, raising hopes it may free up more government spending.

Analysts expect domestic demand to creep back as the junta's policies kick in.

"Growth prospects have brightened since the military takeover, which reduced political uncertainties and restored relative peace to the country," said analysts Capital Economics in a briefing note.

"Nonetheless, the economy continues to face several headwinds, such as high household debt burdens. As such, growth is unlikely to return to its trend rate anytime soon."

The kingdom had enjoyed a reputation as "Teflon Thailand" for its enviable record of economic resilience in the face of the last eight years of political upheaval as well as devastating floods in 2011.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-08-18

[bangkapi]

The globe needs to see a contraction in government spending, particularly military spending.

We also need to see a contraction in consumer debt and a return of sound currency instead of this inflation ridden fiat play money.

[Baerboxer]

The globe needs to see a contraction in government spending, particularly military spending.

We also need to see a contraction in consumer debt and a return of sound currency instead of this inflation ridden fiat play money.

Sound currency - what are you on about? Have a look at the ThB ER's against the USD or GBP and see where its going.

Inflation - PTP had that under control, Yingluck said we all just imagined things were more expensive. Probably because it was irrelevant to her. Wonder if she noticed a difference when you went to buy the groceries last week?

I bet Cameron wishes he could swap government debt with Thailand. He wouldn't have to screw expats for every last penny then.

[chainarong]

Technically YOU could be right.

[JacChang]

I'm running out of things to invest in, please give me a recession.

[Torrens54]

Maybe worries about a possible recession are behind the reported Axing, of the 30 Baht Health Care scheme for the Farang?

My wife attempted to renew my subscription today and was told that the scheme has been dropped. Not just a case of not accepting new members but the WHOLE THING has been ditched!

I don't want to alarm anyone so,you can check it by phoning : 053 999200 (Operator on extension "0")

Hope we were given the wrong info but they sounded "quite emphatic" about the situation. Could be a lot of very unhappy Ferang who contribute a lot of money to the Thai economy.

[Thai at Heart]

The globe needs to see a contraction in government spending, particularly military spending.

We also need to see a contraction in consumer debt and a return of sound currency instead of this inflation ridden fiat play money.

Sound currency - what are you on about? Have a look at the ThB ER's against the USD or GBP and see where its going.

Inflation - PTP had that under control, Yingluck said we all just imagined things were more expensive. Probably because it was irrelevant to her. Wonder if she noticed a difference when you went to buy the groceries last week?

I bet Cameron wishes he could swap government debt with Thailand. He wouldn't have to screw expats for every last penny then.

Well precisely. While everyone is moaning about the pound being weak and the baht being undervalued , just look at the fundamentals of interest rates, govt debt and govt borrowing for the two places and wonder which one u would invest in for appreciation and interest.

[whiteman]

Data can be manipulated easy to suit the great unwashed here. I do not believe for one minute this bull notice.

[Benmart]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain and Others

[FangFerang]

There is a recession. Someone had the TOT cook numbers for the economic department.

[Baerboxer]

There is a recession. Someone had the TOT cook numbers for the economic department.

You mean just like all the governments all over the world do - change the way things are calculated when it suits?