Thailand aims to become high income country in the next ten years

[thhMan]

To get there, would mean the education system needs to churn out a smarter generation

Then that smarter generation, will do the maths and discover that its a hopeless endeavor when those in power remain bufoons in their logic

Then to get anything done, this smart generation will need to copy how the bufoons get things done and the place ends up corrupt and stupid again

Its a vicous circle that the old generation cling too and pass down to their children....

[Asiantravel]

so while Thailand aspires to be a high income country, meanwhile China is seriously looking for new ways to reduce labour costs..............

http://www.scmp.com/tech/enterprises/article/1786484/building-work-starts-first-all-robot-manufacturing-plant-chinas

[Larry001]

Thailand aims to win the next FIFA World Cup Final!! Good to aim high

[JAG]

Ah yes stick a uniform on them and they know everything. The only people who will be in the high income in ten years will be the Military generals.

Just out of interest anyone know if they've raised their own wages?

rijit

Oh I don't think they are bothered about wages.

They're peanuts compared to the " income opportunities" opened up by being the people in power!

[billphillips]

I take note that the current PM's newly formed "Ministry of Silly Comments" is now in full flow.

Edited September 15, 2015 by billphillips

[micmichd]

Seen a lot of negative comments in this thread, but let's try to make a real evaluation of this statement:

1. "High Income Country" is a term that refers to a country with a nominal GNI (Gross National Income) per capita of US$ 12,735 or above.

This threshhold changes every year, according to the inflattion in a few major economies.

2. You can see the list of countries by GNI per capita here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_%28nominal,_Atlas_method%29_per_capita

3. Thailand currently has a GNI per capita of US$ 5,410, which puts it in the "Upper-middle-income" group

4. In order to reach the threshhold of US$ 12,735, the Thai GNI per capita in US$ needs to grow by 135% (((12,735 / 5,410) - 1) x 100)

5. How long would it take?

If the GNI per capita grows by 3% per year (quite fast, but achievable), it would take Thailand 29 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

If the GNI per capita grows by 5% per year (very unlikely), it would take Thailand 18 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

Personally, I think a 3% per year growth rate is much more realistic than 5%. It may be even lower, at 2-2.5%.

If I had to make a bet on this, I would put it at 35-40 years (so around the year 2050/55).

You assume a stable GNI in the West. What makes you so sure that Western GNIs will not decline?

[Basil B]

For Thailand's politicians it has always been a high earning country...

The real problem is the difference is between the few at the top and everybody else.

[micmichd]

so while Thailand aspires to be a high income country, meanwhile China is seriously looking for new ways to reduce labour costs..............

http://www.scmp.com/tech/enterprises/article/1786484/building-work-starts-first-all-robot-manufacturing-plant-chinas

Not everything can be done by robots.

Take into account that Thailand has advanced medicine and is very good in caretaking professions.

Even today's massage girl might be tomorrow's physiotherapist, eg.

The caretaking family might be a way of life for future pensioners, etc etc.

[ldiablo]

Seen a lot of negative comments in this thread, but let's try to make a real evaluation of this statement:

1. "High Income Country" is a term that refers to a country with a nominal GNI (Gross National Income) per capita of US$ 12,735 or above.

This threshhold changes every year, according to the inflattion in a few major economies.

2. You can see the list of countries by GNI per capita here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_%28nominal,_Atlas_method%29_per_capita

3. Thailand currently has a GNI per capita of US$ 5,410, which puts it in the "Upper-middle-income" group

4. In order to reach the threshhold of US$ 12,735, the Thai GNI per capita in US$ needs to grow by 135% (((12,735 / 5,410) - 1) x 100)

5. How long would it take?

If the GNI per capita grows by 3% per year (quite fast, but achievable), it would take Thailand 29 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

If the GNI per capita grows by 5% per year (very unlikely), it would take Thailand 18 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

Personally, I think a 3% per year growth rate is much more realistic than 5%. It may be even lower, at 2-2.5%.

If I had to make a bet on this, I would put it at 35-40 years (so around the year 2050/55).

That's around the same time that bkk will have partially sunk into the sea.

[theswedishguy]

This explains why a bear i Pattaya cost 180THB in many bars and so on.

Western prices in a third world country.

And then "why do less tourist spend time here?"

Classic asian culture. "We have sold 50% less = lets rise prices 50% to cover that"

The work ethic Thai people is huge. They are legendary hard workers: if there is good management.

And this is the biggest problem in Thailand: Their fanatical nationalism. In their backbone a foreigner can't know better since they are not Thai.

Spend some time and read the TH national anthem. If my I said the same thing in my home country I would be in jail for "racism".

But maybe this is why many /I love Thailand. The buddhist culture.

Everyday I see motorcycles drive 50+KM/h on walking streets. "Mai pen rai".

99% time tourist and other walkers manages to avoid getting hit by the bike. The 1% time when people are hurt: "Its Buddhas will".

Taking responsibility like germanic culture don't exist. No self criticism.

(Its amazing how much progress Thailand have done economically the last 25 years. People earn on average 3 times more money. Compare with west. I haven't got a rise last 15 years since all money is used in Sweden to immigration so they can kill the ethnic population quicker)

[Nemesis7]

hahaha...good one

[jalansanitwong]

Obviously that means all the beer bars and gogo dens will close down due to lack of staff. Not to mention marriage to foreigners.

Edited September 15, 2015 by jalansanitwong

[nong38]

Along with high prices to match and the end of the Tourist trade, Tourists who like this part of the world will go to Burma, Cambodia or Vietnam, where prices will be more realistic. As usual no forward thinking or looking at the big picture or the affects of a hike in living standard costs but no rise in associated services or standards. Of course I could be wrong.

[stickylies]

Its the AIMING that will take place in next 10 years NOT the actual high salaries result...

[Shiver]

If you look at somewhere like Singapore that dragged itself from the dirt to be a thriving leading example of how things can be done, with the type of government they had, in a very small geographical space, and that it took a few decades to get there, yet still considered a success story....

Then look at Thailand which is substantially larger, and it's agricultural base more than service or manufacturing, and a 'different' level of education. I would expect that to achieve this would even with optimism, be a multi-generational endeavour.

I would suggest the pursuit of happiness rather than maximum baht in pocket.

[micmichd]

This explains why a bear i Pattaya cost 180THB in many bars and so on.

Western prices in a third world country.

And then "why do less tourist spend time here?"

Classic asian culture. "We have sold 50% less = lets rise prices 50% to cover that"

The work ethic Thai people is huge. They are legendary hard workers: if there is good management.

And this is the biggest problem in Thailand: Their fanatical nationalism. In their backbone a foreigner can't know better since they are not Thai.

Spend some time and read the TH national anthem. If my I said the same thing in my home country I would be in jail for "racism".

But maybe this is why many /I love Thailand. The buddhist culture.

Everyday I see motorcycles drive 50+KM/h on walking streets. "Mai pen rai".

99% time tourist and other walkers manages to avoid getting hit by the bike. The 1% time when people are hurt: "Its Buddhas will".

Taking responsibility like germanic culture don't exist. No self criticism.

(Its amazing how much progress Thailand have done economically the last 25 years. People earn on average 3 times more money. Compare with west. I haven't got a rise last 15 years since all money is used in Sweden to immigration so they can kill the ethnic population quicker)

It's amazing how Farangs accuse Thais for being nationalistic while at the same time they bash Asian refugees and immigrants for coming into their home countries.

[Rama]

Douglass North writes in his book Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance :

"The inability of societies to develop effective, low-cost enforcement of contracts is the most important source of both historical stagnation and contemporary underdevelopment in the Third World."

Edited September 15, 2015 by Rama

[Thai at Heart]

This explains why a bear i Pattaya cost 180THB in many bars and so on.

Western prices in a third world country.

And then "why do less tourist spend time here?"

Classic asian culture. "We have sold 50% less = lets rise prices 50% to cover that"

The work ethic Thai people is huge. They are legendary hard workers: if there is good management.

And this is the biggest problem in Thailand: Their fanatical nationalism. In their backbone a foreigner can't know better since they are not Thai.

Spend some time and read the TH national anthem. If my I said the same thing in my home country I would be in jail for "racism".

But maybe this is why many /I love Thailand. The buddhist culture.

Everyday I see motorcycles drive 50+KM/h on walking streets. "Mai pen rai".

99% time tourist and other walkers manages to avoid getting hit by the bike. The 1% time when people are hurt: "Its Buddhas will".

Taking responsibility like germanic culture don't exist. No self criticism.

(Its amazing how much progress Thailand have done economically the last 25 years. People earn on average 3 times more money. Compare with west. I haven't got a rise last 15 years since all money is used in Sweden to immigration so they can kill the ethnic population quicker)

It's amazing how Farangs accuse Thais for being nationalistic while at the same time they bash Asian refugees and immigrants for coming into their home countries.

Bash?

They might moan, but these countries have long histories of taking in refugees and migrants. Centuries of it.

Thailand can't even see fit to sort out the hill tribes.

Edited September 15, 2015 by Thai at Heart

[MaxLee]

Did someone forget t tell them high income = high living costs? Do they think pad thai will still cost 30 baht when everyone is earning 50K a month? Look what has happened to prices when Yingluck told everyone to pay 15K minimum wage. Talk about the land of make-believe!!

Indeed, for many many years now, neither party understands the most simple economics.... More money, more inflation and higher cost of living.....

[Sam Jones]

I guess he must be ridiculed for years saying this nonsens, ups forgot where I was ...

[h90]

I aim to be as rich as Bill Gates in the next ten years.....

[Eric Loh]

If you look at somewhere like Singapore that dragged itself from the dirt to be a thriving leading example of how things can be done, with the type of government they had, in a very small geographical space, and that it took a few decades to get there, yet still considered a success story....

Then look at Thailand which is substantially larger, and it's agricultural base more than service or manufacturing, and a 'different' level of education. I would expect that to achieve this would even with optimism, be a multi-generational endeavour.

I would suggest the pursuit of happiness rather than maximum baht in pocket.

It actually took Singapore 20 years to reach the high income country (using per capital income of USD12,735) from independence to 1990. It is now a developed country and the 10 richest country with per capital of USD56,000. Thailand is in much better economic shape than Singapore in the 70s. Moreover Thailand has more natural resources and a large population and a fast developing neighbouring countries which Singapore does not have. Thailand will have to grow 5-6% GDP for next 10 years which is possible if we have a discipline government and a visionary leader.

[wabothai]

high income country? Like Germany and Holland?

Please minister stick with transport or even better return to barracks.

[lovelomsak]

Ah yes stick a uniform on them and they know everything. The only people who will be in the high income in ten years will be the Military generals.

Just out of interest anyone know if they've raised their own wages?

rijit

Who needs wage increase when they have corruption? Corruption money is tax free too.

[chainarong]

Besides trading off your most valuable recourse , your people for low wages to attract investment a few decades back , the question would be , which company do you want to leave first. You got this response because you asked for it.

[rheinwiese]

Seen a lot of negative comments in this thread, but let's try to make a real evaluation of this statement:

1. "High Income Country" is a term that refers to a country with a nominal GNI (Gross National Income) per capita of US$ 12,735 or above.

This threshhold changes every year, according to the inflattion in a few major economies.

2. You can see the list of countries by GNI per capita here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_%28nominal,_Atlas_method%29_per_capita

3. Thailand currently has a GNI per capita of US$ 5,410, which puts it in the "Upper-middle-income" group

4. In order to reach the threshhold of US$ 12,735, the Thai GNI per capita in US$ needs to grow by 135% (((12,735 / 5,410) - 1) x 100)

5. How long would it take?

If the GNI per capita grows by 3% per year (quite fast, but achievable), it would take Thailand 29 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

If the GNI per capita grows by 5% per year (very unlikely), it would take Thailand 18 years to reach the "High Income Country" threshhold.

Personally, I think a 3% per year growth rate is much more realistic than 5%. It may be even lower, at 2-2.5%.

If I had to make a bet on this, I would put it at 35-40 years (so around the year 2050/55).

Spot on. Absolutely correct as the example of Malaysia show.

Malaysia entered the lower middle-income economies in 1969 and joined the upper middle-income countries in 1996.

Malaysia has been in the lower middle- income economies for 27 years, and is now stuck for 20 years in the upper middle-income trap (in 2014) with average growth from 2000–14 at 2.6%.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Where do they get this c%$#% from. They can come for an attitude adjustment with me. I will drive down soi's in HH and show them in which utter poverty many people are living in the supposed superior town of Huahin.

[NCC1701A]

hey big money man, look chart, go down big, not stop:

http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite-chart

there is a huge sh*t storm brewing in the GLOBAL economy. good luck with your plan...

don't forget to buy a few big bags of rice now so you have something to eat later.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Absolutely, perfectly on track.

1% of the population consisting of the heads of the Junta, the RTP and others at the trough will be fabulously wealthy.

The rest of the population will be scratching around in the dirt looking for the money to buy fertilizer for their next rice crop.

Developed countries are distinguished from third world countries because of the size of their middle classes.

From what I have seen in the last year, the middle class Thai business owners I know are having their financial interests decimated.

On its current path Thailand is heading back to the stone age.

Edited September 15, 2015 by Bulldozer Dawn

[arunsakda]

This is possible within 30 years if corruption is eliminated.

Sent from my blue clam shell

Edited September 15, 2015 by arunsakda