Thailand the Weakest Asean Economy in 2016

[webfact]

Thailand the Weakest Asean Economy in 2016
BY JACOB MASLOW



BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s economy is struggling – it’s not a secret. Household debt is on the rise, a drought has caused crops to suffer and the country has an abundance of rice stores that are likely to go bad before they can be sold off. The rubber market is also struggling causing issues to worsen even further.

When the World Bank released their economic growth predictions for 2016, a modest growth of 2.9% in the world’s GDP was expected.

But China’s struggling economy hurts Asean members dramatically. The country is slumping and each new report shows that there are vital problems underlying China’s slump that will take years to fix. Economic forecasts for emerging markets are taking direct hits from China, and Thailand’s growth is expected to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016.

Full story: https://ethailand.com/opinion-editorial/thailand-the-weakest-asean-economy-in-2016/1703/

-- eThailand 2016-03-09

[noitom]

Looks like Thailand's goose is cooked.

[ezzra]

This is not correct that Thailand is the weakest Asean economy, as Thailand should be considered as part

of China now seeing that Thai governments to it's successions has buddied and bosomed up to China

so much that Thailand can easily can be viewed as another province of China and thus is as strong

as China.......

[Thechook]

And Thailand considers itself as the leader and driver of ASEAN. Solders are more qualified at digging holes and marching up and down than running an economy and country.

[leeneeds]

Forecasting is only an indication where they THINK , GDP will be,

How wrong they can be , 2 weeks ago the forecast was for China to be down to 4.5-5 , when it is actually 6-7%

only 5 weeks ago the gold price was said to be doom and gloom, now it is in a bull market,

Predicting by some one who can say this, and some else can say that,

Money people are very much like lawyers and can argue the indicator points.

[Thunder26]

As I understand Thailand doesn't have the weakest economy in ASEAN, but it is predicted to have the weakest economic growth from ASEAN in 2016.

[Thunder26]

Edited March 9, 2016 by Thunder26

[ronwparker]

I am not surprised as many Thai's live on credit ,hate their Burmese 'workforce',speak little English,bought too many cars,build too many houses and condo's etc etc.sadly because it is a good country for we foreigners to live in as long as we know the dangers and are not frightened by their bureacracy.the TAT 'Land of Smiles ' myth is fading fast!!!

[Thian]

No ploblem krab, they can always lower the Baht and the sun will shine again.

[Nicolas32]

Known this for awhile but anyway they will keep saying Thailand is number one and expecting 100 billion tourist this year ..

[lostmebike]

Just another excuse for the 'poo yais' in isaan to be even greedier than now. Great!

[jouke]

Make the THB on par with the RM (Ringgit) like it used to be(10:1). It will help (me) a lot!

[maewang99]

what does Thailand have to offer? the auto sector benefited from several decades of good decsion making contrasted with poor ones, and lesser market opportunities, in neighboring countries. this is now changing. while the local media the last few days trumpeted continued Japanese support for Thailand, in the Philippines they were doing the same except that there it is (1) a relatively new thing to be that geared up for at that level (for the Philippines that is hoped) and (2) is focused on electric vehicles as the target niche. And every month without fail for many many years, higher and higher auto sales in the PI where a good part of the ASEAN population is, without which (the comparative demographics) the AEC never meant much without. one of Thailand's current best hopes is tourism, which I believe is based on a kind of 'ethnological exposition' theme. When lower class westerners, and Chinese, come here they feel rich and blessed by comparison, they do not feel left behind. Many folks think that they are "middle class" when in fact they have no idea where middle class is. and having an education system that is so focused on indoctrination, versus true learning, that even the westerners who have lived here for many years and have children here as well, even they (there's example op-eds, as always, in The Nation website and newspaper the last few days) don't really realize how totally slanted the whole system is, including almost all of the private schools not just public ones. they are calling for "better teachers", the same old same old..... but it's the entire system that needs to be overhauled. the culture. great for producing a comparative handful of medical doctors, and factory workers.. but not doctors of any other field or skilled workers (modern day skills not 20th century stuff). end of story. but there will always be a few pockets of opportunity for investors on the long side. as everywhere. it's never all one thing versus the other, but it is not being improved upon yet and now with this government is the only chance Thailand has to really change direction. and tourism isn't amoung the answers, i.e. if COP21 isn't going to end up being a total letdown, it's exemption for aviation and shipping will be addressed this year, as scheduled. that's going to be a humdinger for tourism, or climate. one or the other. electric cars are here but electric jets are just something in a movie role for Musk. that kind of thing isn't even being talked about... anywhere yet.... and aviation is growing way too fast to continue to be 100% exempted (as well as endlessly subsidized) going forward. the wrong thing to bet your future on. it's always about people in the end even in the oil producing countries, even Dubai nomatter how wonderful they build it up. workers who can think.... who never lose a love of learning.... not just memorize and obey.

Edited March 9, 2016 by maewang99

[KIWIBATCH]

what does Thailand have to offer? the auto sector benefited from several decades of good decsion making and poor ones, and lesser market opportunities, in neighboring countries. this is now changing. while the local media the last few days trumpeted continued Japanese support for Thailand, in the Philippines they were doing the same except that there it is (1) a relatively new thing to be that geared up for at that level (for the Philippines that is hoped) and (2) is focused on electric vehicles as the target niche. And every month without fail for many many years, higher and higher auto sales in the PI where a good part of the ASEAN population is, without which (the comparative demographics) the AEC never meant much without. one of Thailand's current best hopes is tourism, which I believe is based on a kind of 'ethnological exposition' theme. When lower class westerners, and Chinese, come here they feel rich and blessed by comparison, they do not feel left behind. Many folks think that they are "middle class" when in fact they have no idea where middle class is. and having an education system that is so focused on indoctrination, versus true learning, that even the westerners who have lived here for many years and have children here as well, even they (there's example op-eds, as always, in The Nation website and newspaper the last few days) don't really realize how totally slanted the whole system is, including almost all of the private schools not just public ones. they are calling for "better teachers", the same old same old..... but it's the entire system that needs to be overhauled. the culture. great for producing a comparative handful of medical doctors, and factory workers.. but not doctors of any other field or skilled workers (modern day skills not 20th century stuff). end of story. but there will always be a few pockets of opportunity for investors on the long side. as everywhere. it's never all one thing versus the other, but it is not being improved upon yet and now with this government is the only chance Thailand has to really change direction. and tourism isn't amoung the answers, i.e. if COP21 isn't going to end up being a total letdown, it's exemption for aviation and shipping will be addressed this year, as scheduled. that's going to be a humdinger for tourism, or climate. one or the other. electric cars are here but electric jets are just something in a movie role for Musk. that kind of thing isn't even being talked about... anywhere yet.... and aviation is growing way too fast to continue to be exempted (as wel as endlessly subsidized)going forward. the wrong thing to bet your future on. just as with war, it's always about people. boots on the ground. workers who can think not just memorize.

<deleted> is this all about....???

[bassman]

Forecasting is only an indication where they THINK , GDP will be,

How wrong they can be , 2 weeks ago the forecast was for China to be down to 4.5-5 , when it is actually 6-7%

only 5 weeks ago the gold price was said to be doom and gloom, now it is in a bull market,

Predicting by some one who can say this, and some else can say that,

Money people are very much like lawyers and can argue the indicator points.

Very few leading economists believe that China is doing even close to 6% growth. China is neither open nor transparent and is in the process of a massive infrastructure program to "pad" their already fake numbers. Globalization is not going well right now and worldwide their is massive pullback. China has dumped their products on the world, like many Asian nations (including Thailand) and the politics of both Europe and the USA don't bode well for the near future for more of the current "one way-free trade".

Order something from Amazon and see what the customs duties are when your package arrives in Thailand. Way above and beyond anything in any trade agreements.

[jacky54]

Good news then, cheered me up no end

[leeneeds]

Forecasting is only an indication where they THINK , GDP will be,

How wrong they can be , 2 weeks ago the forecast was for China to be down to 4.5-5 , when it is actually 6-7%

only 5 weeks ago the gold price was said to be doom and gloom, now it is in a bull market,

Predicting by some one who can say this, and some else can say that,

Money people are very much like lawyers and can argue the indicator points.

Very few leading economists believe that China is doing even close to 6% growth. China is neither open nor transparent and is in the process of a massive infrastructure program to "pad" their already fake numbers. Globalization is not going well right now and worldwide their is massive pullback. China has dumped their products on the world, like many Asian nations (including Thailand) and the politics of both Europe and the USA don't bode well for the near future for more of the current "one way-free trade".

Order something from Amazon and see what the customs duties are when your package arrives in Thailand. Way above and beyond anything in any trade agreements.

The BOT spokesperson revised Thailand's growth from 3.7 % down to 3.5% , I am just saying it is open to your interpretation, or who ever gives the prediction, not aways right and as you say "some " economists say as you say and some say as i say , forecasting is speculation, and thats what i was getting.

[Srikcir]

Thailand’s growth is expected to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016.

I expected GDP growth to match 2015 at worse with a 0.5% interest rate cut in April 2016, taking the baht to 38:1 USD. But a predicted 2% growth rate will put greater pressure for several rate cuts for the remainder of the year. If China cuts its rates before summer 2016, BOT may be looking at the baht at 40:1 USD.

[elgordo38]

Looks like Thailand's goose is cooked.

Watching the baht increase in value every day makes me wonder about you doom and gloom guys. The SET to seems to be the best performing market in Asia as well.

[elgordo38]

I am not surprised as many Thai's live on credit ,hate their Burmese 'workforce',speak little English,bought too many cars,build too many houses and condo's etc etc.sadly because it is a good country for we foreigners to live in as long as we know the dangers and are not frightened by their bureacracy.the TAT 'Land of Smiles ' myth is fading fast!!!

Yes the myth is fading fast and we foreigners can stand and wave to them as they do the lemmings run. They do seem to have a common way of thinking things through all except for my g/f. She even laughs at the most complicated joke that I spin her way today. She is becoming an outside the box thinker. She not only speaks English she also understands it now.

[GAZZPA]

No surprise to anyone,,, except the Government.

[GAZZPA]

Forecasting is only an indication where they THINK , GDP will be,

How wrong they can be , 2 weeks ago the forecast was for China to be down to 4.5-5 , when it is actually 6-7%

only 5 weeks ago the gold price was said to be doom and gloom, now it is in a bull market,

Predicting by some one who can say this, and some else can say that,

Money people are very much like lawyers and can argue the indicator points.

The GDP in China is notoriously inflated when speaking to China, most global economists believe Chinas growth to actually be around 4.5% and falling. This is way below Chinas official numbers and a serious fall compared to where China has been for the last 20 years.

For the Thai economy, it is absolutely a poor economic situation right now. You do not have to be an economist to see for yourself the effect on the highstreet and lack of spending by locals as they max out their credit cards.

Of course there will always be difference of opinion on numbers but by and large the consensus is that the China economy is falling and the Thai economy is falling and potentially moving into recession. if you believe differently then that's up to you but I won't ask you to do any investments for me.

[GAZZPA]

I am not surprised as many Thai's live on credit ,hate their Burmese 'workforce',speak little English,bought too many cars,build too many houses and condo's etc etc.sadly because it is a good country for we foreigners to live in as long as we know the dangers and are not frightened by their bureacracy.the TAT 'Land of Smiles ' myth is fading fast!!!

Yes the myth is fading fast and we foreigners can stand and wave to them as they do the lemmings run. They do seem to have a common way of thinking things through all except for my g/f. She even laughs at the most complicated joke that I spin her way today. She is becoming an outside the box thinker. She not only speaks English she also understands it now.

My girlfriend is the same, she is from the Phillipines not Thailand so I think she had a head start but she too really understand English now, not just the words but the subtleties of english culture (and humour).

Thailand is heading for an even tougher time, they so desperately need the reforms and elected Government so professional economists can work on policies to protect the country, but we are so far away from that. It is a dangerous economic time to have no real politicians in power.

[GAZZPA]

Looks like Thailand's goose is cooked.

Watching the baht increase in value every day makes me wonder about you doom and gloom guys. The SET to seems to be the best performing market in Asia as well.

Head in the sand my friend?

Using the "Thai" stock market as a measure of economic stability is suicide. It is built on sentiment and sorry to say corruption. Recently there is an article about clamping down on insider trading after some executives at CP cashed in and just got a telling off!

The economy is at rock bottom and falling, this is a certainty. if something doesn't change soon (and i can't see how it will) the country will slip into recession. Not doom and gloom just stating facts, the same as I would if things were good and the future was bright.

[GAZZPA]

what does Thailand have to offer? the auto sector benefited from several decades of good decsion making and poor ones, and lesser market opportunities, in neighboring countries. this is now changing. while the local media the last few days trumpeted continued Japanese support for Thailand, in the Philippines they were doing the same except that there it is (1) a relatively new thing to be that geared up for at that level (for the Philippines that is hoped) and (2) is focused on electric vehicles as the target niche. And every month without fail for many many years, higher and higher auto sales in the PI where a good part of the ASEAN population is, without which (the comparative demographics) the AEC never meant much without. one of Thailand's current best hopes is tourism, which I believe is based on a kind of 'ethnological exposition' theme. When lower class westerners, and Chinese, come here they feel rich and blessed by comparison, they do not feel left behind. Many folks think that they are "middle class" when in fact they have no idea where middle class is. and having an education system that is so focused on indoctrination, versus true learning, that even the westerners who have lived here for many years and have children here as well, even they (there's example op-eds, as always, in The Nation website and newspaper the last few days) don't really realize how totally slanted the whole system is, including almost all of the private schools not just public ones. they are calling for "better teachers", the same old same old..... but it's the entire system that needs to be overhauled. the culture. great for producing a comparative handful of medical doctors, and factory workers.. but not doctors of any other field or skilled workers (modern day skills not 20th century stuff). end of story. but there will always be a few pockets of opportunity for investors on the long side. as everywhere. it's never all one thing versus the other, but it is not being improved upon yet and now with this government is the only chance Thailand has to really change direction. and tourism isn't amoung the answers, i.e. if COP21 isn't going to end up being a total letdown, it's exemption for aviation and shipping will be addressed this year, as scheduled. that's going to be a humdinger for tourism, or climate. one or the other. electric cars are here but electric jets are just something in a movie role for Musk. that kind of thing isn't even being talked about... anywhere yet.... and aviation is growing way too fast to continue to be exempted (as wel as endlessly subsidized)going forward. the wrong thing to bet your future on. just as with war, it's always about people. boots on the ground. workers who can think not just memorize.

<deleted> is this all about....???

In short Thailand is stuck in in an education system where rote learning is prevalent, creating a workforce of people who just obey and dont question. So society doesn't produce lateral thinking, visionaries to create a bright future for tomorrow.

[Utley]

And yet the Thai baht remains strong.

[Plutojames88]

Soothsayers will blame it on planetary movements still believed in theses parts of the world.

The military will blame everyone and thing other than their management failures.

Eventually the poor will meekly protest .

Then as the karmic forces darken , maybe even the Bangkok people will wish they hadn't set the web they now are stuck in.

Time the ""Great revenges of history""

The junta won't be able to endure under drought and / or sanctions looming ....even without them the tide of ill fate is certainly manifesting