this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

[onemorechang]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

IF the long rumoured casino comes to town I'd expect the values to increase over 10 to 20 years.

 

You seem to lack an understanding of the laws in Thailand.

as many do on  Tv,   when it comes to Casino nonsense talk in Pattaya.

 

[JSixpack]

13 hours ago, onemorechang said:

 

You seem to lack an understanding of the laws in Thailand.

as many do on  Tv,   when it comes to Casino nonsense talk in Pattaya.

 

 

Or maybe your problem is that you lack an understanding that laws can change, as many do on TV.

[IMA_FARANG]

What is the actual occupation rate of those condos in Pattaya?

That is what oercentage of the condo rooms are actually lived in by the owners?

That statistic is probably a more honest measure of demand for condos than hoe ma,y rooms are "sold".

I suspect the occupstion rate is less thsn 60 percent of those "owned" rooms re actually occcupied by the "owners".

 

[onemorechang]

1 hour ago, JSixpack said:

 

Or maybe your problem is that you lack an understanding that laws can change, as many do on TV.

 

Please explain what your on about ?

[Awohalitsiktoli]

On 11/20/2016 at 5:13 PM, KittenKong said:

 

And I can expect to eat pizza at every meal and still lose weight. Why dont you try selling your condo and let us know how much you actually get?  As for so-called 3 million Baht condos selling for a half of the asking price or less, I've seen it happen. And there are still units for sale today in the same building at the same full asking price they were at 3 years ago.

 

All property I have owned in other countries has increased in value by at least 50% every ten years, sometimes more. I dont see that happening here. And anything that is still worth today what it was worth 10 years ago has in fact decreased substantially in value simply due to inflation.

 

Thai property looks like a lousy investment to me and prices generally seem way too high for the poor quality of what you get. That said, most of the Caribbean is much more expensive for equally poor quality.

 

 

2 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

What is the actual occupation rate of those condos in Pattaya?

That is what oercentage of the condo rooms are actually lived in by the owners?

That statistic is probably a more honest measure of demand for condos than hoe ma,y rooms are "sold".

I suspect the occupstion rate is less thsn 60 percent of those "owned" rooms re actually occcupied by the "owners".

 

I know several people who cannot sell their condo units (upper and lower end units, all w/ views of the ocean).   Most are ignoring the fact that supply has greatly exceeded demand.

[Asiantravel]

19 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

IF the long rumoured casino comes to town I'd expect the values to increase over 10 to 20 years.

 

there are more than a dozen casino hotels in Miami which is quoted in the original post to this article but they haven't stopped there being a severe oversupply. I can't see the correlation between any casinos (even if they come )driving up the prices of 17,000 vacant condominiums  clutching at straws I would say

 

[pattayalover]

with retirement visa now at 3 millions bahts, I don't think many people will buy a condo.

[Awohalitsiktoli]

3 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

there are more than a dozen casino hotels in Miami which is quoted in the original post to this article but they haven't stopped there being a severe oversupply. I can't see the correlation between any casinos (even if they come )driving up the prices of 17,000 vacant condominiums  clutching at straws I would say

 

Totally agree with you.  There is a huge oversupply of condo units.  I do not see prices going up very much no matter what they construct.  I remember a lot of people saying that condo prices would skyrocket after the Swamp Airport was built, but that never happened (yes, they went up slightly).  Rental prices are about what they were 16 years ago!  And as far as I know from listening to people who are trying to sell and get out of this market, they are having extreme difficulty selling anything; some cannot sell even after dropping the price.  The person that owns more condo units than any other person I know told me that "he has never seen the market this bad."  But you never know for sure.  If the global economy continues to spiral downward more people will flee industrialized countries in an attempt to find a better quality of life at reduced costs.  Some will mistakenly think this is the place to be.  And more people will likely flee Bangkok as conditions worsen there.  Those two events will likely have a positive impact on the market (how much......no idea).  I think future casinos and high speed rail connections will only have a minor impact on the real estate market here. 

[Jingthing]

There is a site for distress sale condos. So the question is are there quick buyers at these so called distressed prices? Rightmovepattaya.com

[LongTimeLurker]

21 hours ago, onemorechang said:

 

You seem to lack an understanding of the laws in Thailand.

as many do on  Tv,   when it comes to Casino nonsense talk in Pattaya.

 

 

As you know, in Thailand laws can be ignored, misconstrued, reinterpreted or changed.

[Naam]

On 11/20/2016 at 3:59 PM, KittenKong said:

I base my view of prices here on what I can get in other popular tourist destinations. Look at Spain where much better quality accommodation can be bought more cheaply than here, and that's in a country where EU nationals will get proper health care at low cost and...

...pay a fancy income tax unlike Thailand! 

[Anthony5]

The following isn't exactly about condo's, but it gives a perfect picture about the condition of the real estate market in Pattaya, and probablt the whole of Thailand.

 

This is a project by a major developer just outside Pattaya on road #36 near the Bira circuit. It was started some 6 years ago. The houses look beautiful, from a distance, but don't go close because it is the shoddiest workmanship I've ever seen. Even in Thailand.

 

Since they started the project they first increased the prices, because Thai logic if it doesn't sell....., and have since lowered the prices again to BELOW the initial starting price. I think the houses are intended for the better off Thai and foreigners.

 

The project is huge, I think over 200 houses when finished and as I say very beautiful, from a distance.

 

I have been inside several times in the past, last time today, and currently I think there are about 30 houses completely finished and another 20 in advanced stage of completion.

 

All BUT ONE house had the same sign, with the same telephone number, which said " for sale ready to move in".

 

http://www.ampiopattaya.com/cover/home.php?lg=en

 

http://newpattaya.com/pattaya/ampio-pattaya/

 

Now let me add, that the same developer has another village on the same highway but 5 km closer towards Sukhumvit, which was completed a few years ago.

 

I went inside not so long ago, and it consist of in my estimation +500 houses, of which two thirds have that very same sales sign outside.

 

Where does the money come from to complete, in these 2 villages alone but the developer has lots more of them, approx 300 houses without being sold for years?

 

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Anthony5

[whitemouse]

Over 60 thousand condos now waiting for buyers in Pattaya. 

 

 

An interesting article in BPost business section today about Pattaya condo market

[Anthony5]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

There is a site for distress sale condos. So the question is are there quick buyers at these so called distressed prices? Rightmovepattaya.com

 

He who believes that on that website any particular  property can be had at a lower price than on any other real estate site must be born yesterday.

[Peterw42]

What is the actual occupation rate of those condos in Pattaya?
That is what oercentage of the condo rooms are actually lived in by the owners?
That statistic is probably a more honest measure of demand for condos than hoe ma,y rooms are "sold".
I suspect the occupstion rate is less thsn 60 percent of those "owned" rooms re actually occcupied by the "owners".
 

Occupation rates is only relevant if the condos are being rented.
Condos sit empty for lots of reasons, not all bad. Condo next door to me is owned by a well off Thai who uses it for 1 month a year as a holiday house. On the other side of me it's empty, a westener owns it and is going to live in it when he retires

[Henryford]

It is impossible to sell even a decent condo now at a reasonable price. Any potential buyer thinks because there is an oversupply they can offer a stupid low price. I've given up dealing with these jokers.

[Peterw42]

 
He who believes that on that website any particular  property can be had at a lower price than on any other real estate site must be born yesterday.

Yes, there are lots of real estate sites advertising "fire sales", thing is they havnt dropped the price.

[Awohalitsiktoli]

19 minutes ago, Henryford said:

It is impossible to sell even a decent condo now at a reasonable price. Any potential buyer thinks because there is an oversupply they can offer a stupid low price. I've given up dealing with these jokers.

Sellers can wish for an astronomical ROI until pigs learn to fly, but (in general and all things being equal) it is the marketplace (supply vs demand) that sets the actual value of a property.   The people you mentioned are not all "jokers;" rather, they are realists.  There is a huge oversupply of units (condos and houses).  And more condo projects are being built.  It seems like an insane market driven by insane economic concepts.  But maybe I am wrong.  I certainly have been wrong on other things in the past.

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 minute ago, Awohalitsiktoli said:

There is a huge oversupply of units (condos and houses).  And more condo projects are being built.  It seems like an insane market driven by insane economic concepts.

It's no coincidence IMO that the only registered Thailand Elite property-related development is in Pattaya

[Anthony5]

1 hour ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

It's no coincidence IMO that the only registered Thailand Elite property-related development is in Pattaya

 

And that almost 2 years after the so successful program it still isn't sold out, as I can see they still erect new billboards promoting that project.

 

How about The Cube, another great project once promoted in a pinned post on this forum, which now has disappeared?

 

Are there currently actually any condo projects in Pattaya that are not years behind on the projected completion date?

[fforest1]

5 hours ago, Henryford said:

It is impossible to sell even a decent condo now at a reasonable price. Any potential buyer thinks because there is an oversupply they can offer a stupid low price. I've given up dealing with these jokers.

 

Alls it takes is one very motivated seller to make these so called jokers

seem like very smart buyers.....

 

And with the way events are unfolding in Thailand I would place my bet

on the jokers winning for a good while....

 

First there was/are a insane amount of condos being built in Pattaya,

Some/many? with unrealistic asking prices...Using logic like why

not ask for a extra million or 2 because?? Well no reason really

just because lots of other sellers are doing it...

 

Then the rocket fuel for the condo market ran out...With the Rubles

value cut in half the Russians stopped coming and stopped buying... 

 

Then the military take over of Thailand..Which in it self might not have

been so bad..But they gave them self section 44 which can change any

law at any time,which is the exact opposite of what real estate markets

want which is stability...

 

Then the UK buyers who were some of the bedrock buyers of the Pattayas condos have taken big hit on the Pound/Baht exchange rate..

 

Then just to make sure there was plenty of gasoline poured on the already

sick condo market Thailand just came out with this crazy new 10 year

visa with the details about as clear as mud...Which should do a excellent

job of putting condo sales in a deep freeze until there is certainty around

this visa../And if the details of this visa are bad and its the only choice

for a retirement visa then it will be time for one hell of a weenie roast

because Pattayas condo market will be cooked/finished/kaput/the end/

byebye...

 

 

Real estate markets love certainty and abhor uncertainty..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by fforest1

[smedly]

21 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

 

Alls it takes is one very motivated seller to make these so called jokers

seem like very smart buyers.....

 

And with the way events are unfolding in Thailand I would place my bet

on the jokers winning for a good while....

 

First there was/are a insane amount of condos being built in Pattaya,

Some/many? with unrealistic asking prices...Using logic like why

not ask for a extra million or 2 because?? Well no reason really

just because lots of other sellers are doing it...

 

Then the rocket fuel for the condo market ran out...With the Rubles

value cut in half the Russians stopped coming and stopped buying... 

 

Then the military take over of Thailand..Which in it self might not have

been so bad..But they gave them self section 44 which can change any

law at any time,which is the exact opposite of what real estate markets

want which is stability...

 

Then the UK buyers who were some of the bedrock buyers of the Pattayas condos have taken big hit on the Pound/Baht exchange rate..

 

Then just to make sure there was plenty of gasoline poured on the already

sick condo market Thailand just came out with this crazy new 10 year

visa with the details about as clear as mud...Which should do a excellent

job of putting condo sales in a deep freeze until there is certainty around

this visa../And if the details of this visa are bad and its the only choice

for a retirement visa then it will be time for one hell of a weenie roast

because Pattayas condo market will be cooked/finished/kaput/the end/

byebye...

 

 

Real estate markets love certainty and abhor uncertainty..

 

 

 

 

 

 

great post and 100% spot on

[gk10002000]

My take is, as an investment, don't buy it or don't buy it with any very large amounts because I don't trust Thailand.  Having said that, if you are planning to visit a lot, partially retire or semi retire here, then buying a condo can make bottom line financial sense with some other issues to consider.  You should start with a basic cost analysis.

 

     Pick the average rate a decent hotel that you liked charged per night/week/ month.  Then figure out how often you will be staying there and for how many years.  For example, say you come here twice a year on a SETV extending each visa once.  That's 60 days x 2 = 120 days each year.  Lets' say 2,000 baht a night.  Yes you can of course rent cheaper places but I am thinking of a place > Flipper lodge and a bigger room equivalent to a large studio, or 1 BR condo you might buy.  Change the numbers as you wish.  You can definitely rent one month stay places for 30,000 baht/month or less.  So 120 days x 2,000 baht = 240,000 baht or ~ $6,800 USD /year if you can't make long term arrangements and pay by the night or if the 30k/month 120,000 baht which would be $3,400 USD/year.  Decent condos can be bought for 1.5 M baht or $42,800 USD.  So in my example it would take about  either 7 or 14 years to have spent as much on your condo as you did on hotels.  I didn't include utilities or condo management fees.   Adjust the numbers as you wish but I think you see the idea.  If you stay in country longer each year, then buying can make more sense on the basic financial bottom line.  You run the numbers for the size and quality of the place you would rent short term in a hotel and compare against what you could buy in a condo. 

 

  Now owning a place has its other intangibles, both pros and cons.  Owners' association headaches, problem neighbors you are stuck with, service interruptions, tying up your money up front, theft and damage while you are away, issues with selling your place and taking your money if you need to leave.  On the plus side you might get decent management, you get to keep your own furnishings and customize as you wish, you have storage and a base of operations, etc.    You can maybe let some friends use the place occasionally (although that seems to becoming more of a possible problem now than in the past).  The sense of ownership can be quite comforting.

 

[gk10002000]

Personally my reasonableness test is what was available and priced around 2004 when the Thai baht was 44/USD.  Decent 1 br condos or large studios could be had for ~> 1 M baht or about 30,000 USD.  I could see buying a place and putting out 30 k USD for a place I have visited 12 times since then.  Prices and exchange rates have gone up and down, condo market is glutted, etc.  I certainly don't think Pattaya has improved in any way shape or form to my liking, so any price increases to me aren't justified.  All I see is more traffic, more malls than I need or want, dirtier water such that even Jomtien is not swimmable any more, more military involvement, etc

 

 I don't think it is a good place for any sort of capital gains investment play.  But if one is staying often or long term, and if one is willing to risk $30,000 USD should the government or country go in directions that are intolerable, then it is not a horrible thing. 

[john1000]

14 hours ago, gk10002000 said:

Personally my reasonableness test is what was available and priced around 2004 when the Thai baht was 44/USD.  Decent 1 br condos or large studios could be had for ~> 1 M baht or about 30,000 USD.  I could see buying a place and putting out 30 k USD for a place I have visited 12 times since then.  Prices and exchange rates have gone up and down, condo market is glutted, etc.  I certainly don't think Pattaya has improved in any way shape or form to my liking, so any price increases to me aren't justified.  All I see is more traffic, more malls than I need or want, dirtier water such that even Jomtien is not swimmable any more, more military involvement, etc

 

 I don't think it is a good place for any sort of capital gains investment play.  But if one is staying often or long term, and if one is willing to risk $30,000 USD should the government or country go in directions that are intolerable, then it is not a horrible thing. 

Too many variables to second guess. If you stay more than 6 months a year, it would be good just to lose the rent and gamble that the place does not change to make living there really not desirable.

 

However having an option to walk away and not lose anything, is also a good feeling. Rent may be viewed as dead money to many, but buying, is putting your eggs in one basket and life does change sometimes.

Edited November 28, 2016 by john1000

[Global Guy]

On ‎11‎/‎17‎/‎2016 at 2:39 PM, Peterw42 said:

 

 

Let me put it this way. A condo block has 100 condos for sale, some developer stock, some resale etc. The developer is doing all the smoke and mirrors and managing to sell a couple of condos at an artificial price of 15 million each, at the other end someone has managed to find a reseller who is about to go broke, and managed to buy a condo for 5 million. There is a price in the middle of say 10 million were buyers would be happy to buy and sellers happy to sell, but there are no sales. 

 

What is the price of a condo in that block ???

 

You cant say 5 million as that was a one off (limited supply), you cant say were supply meets demand at 10 million, as there are no sales (demand but no supply), if the only sales are developer sales at 15 million (limited demand, lots of supply), isnt that the price ? 

 

Yes its artificial but its still were buyer and seller are meeting. Albeit at a low volume.

 

I dont know how you would appraise that market.

 

I take all the pricing with a grain of salt, I'm usually the guy running around offering 5 million.

You are confusing market value (based on financial analysis) vs. the price someone in the market is willing to pay for something. Those are not automatically the same thing. I know you think they are the same metric but they are not. They coincidentally can be, but not by any financial/analytic basis. Just by coincidence. If we go by what you say then no one ever underpays or overpays for a condo.

 

When I do a market analysis in any country, there are numerous different data points I use to get an accurate valuation, not just one data point, as you mention.

[Pattaya46]

On ‎26‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 11:04 PM, whitemouse said:

Over 60 thousand condos now waiting for buyers in Pattaya. 

 

Official count given very recently was 17'000 condos (unsold, or being built, or launched projects). Very far from your 60'000 !??

[Anthony5]

4 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

 

Official count given very recently was 17'000 condos (unsold, or being built, or launched projects). Very far from your 60'000 !??

 

Got a link to the "official" count?

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to Bangkok Post has been removed:

 

26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.

[Asiantravel]

1 hour ago, Pattaya46 said:

 

Official count given very recently was 17'000 condos (unsold, or being built, or launched projects). Very far from your 60'000 !??

 

 

there is no " official count ". The 17,000 was quoted in a research report by Colliers International. The 60,000  was quoted by Knight Frank. Both of these companies are highly regarded international property consultants. Of course one doesn't know the methodology each of them used to arrive at their estimates although it is a bit concerning that their figures are so far apart.

It kind of reinforces what I said at the beginning though regarding the dearth of reliable data when there isn't even a consensus between 2 international property companies as to how many units are actually available.

Bottom line is even if you rely on the Colliers best case scenario, how many years is it going to take to absorb 17,000 with current global economic conditions?

Edited November 29, 2016 by Asiantravel