This Will Be A Year Of Living Precariously: Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

This will be a year of living precariously

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- This year will prove to be highly eventful for Thailand, with proposed constitutional amendments topping the list of "potentially explosive" issues, followed closely by economic "time bombs" in the form of the Bt300-per-day minimum wage and the costly and controversial rice price-pledging scheme.

Somewhere near the top of the list of hot topics will be the ruling by the International Court of Justice over the disputed Preah Vihear temple. Popping up all over the place in the political minefield is the widespread corruption tied to the government's various populist schemes, which could blow up any time in the course of the ongoing investigations by various civic pressure groups.

And just under the surface of the vulnerable political landscape lies the "reconciliation bill", which has become a taboo issue of sorts. No sooner had the draft law been submitted to the House than strong protests from both within the legislative body and independent groups virtually sent the proposal to the backburner. It's now waiting to be revived at another, unpredictable time.

This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister. She will have to decide whether to make it in politics or go down in history as a seat-warmer who could charm one side of our severely divided society but remain an enigma for the rest of the country.

The charter amendment issue could be Yingluck's undoing if she doesn't handle it in such a way that she can really fulfil the pledge to make the change a "democratic one" - one that will really involve all sectors of the population. Thaksin's public push for a referendum on the issue clashes with some red-shirt leaders' calls for a dash towards a third and final reading of the charter-change bill that will entail a rewriting of the whole Constitution through an assembly elected for the purpose.

Yingluck has so far appeared to be sitting on the fence, either because she isn't sure what the fuss is all about or she is working to patch up the differences among various groups, both within the Pheu Thai Party and the red-shirt movement.

The political instability that could rock her government comes from both the charter issue and the upcoming verdict by the ICJ on the Preah Vihear case.

Foreign Minister Surapong Tovijakchaikul kicked off a controversy at the beginning of the year by suggesting that Thais should be resigned to the fact that we won't win the case. "For us, the expected ruling is either the status quo or a defeat," he said, prompting strong criticism that he was throwing in the towel even before the legal fight begins. Thai and Cambodian officials and lawyers are to testify on the case in the middle of April. Surapong first said he won't be attending the hearings, and the Thai delegation will be headed by our Ambassador to the Hague, Virachai Plasai, while Surapong's Cambodian counterpart, Hor Namhong, will be making a visible presence there. The Thai foreign minister changed his mind a few days later and announced that he would personally head the Thai delegation.

Depending on how the government handles the verdict, things could get fluid. Attempts will intensify from the government's critics to whip up public nationalistic sentiment that could turn ugly. The combination of domestic conflict and cross-border tension could become a combustible mix.

Negative reaction from various business sectors over the enforcement (beginning on January 1) of the Bt300-per-day minimum wage in most parts of the country will get louder as more medium and small-sized firms feel the pinch of the additional financial burden. The rising cost of living, plus sporadic reports of labour layoffs in certain industries, will add to the grim political stirrings.

Any one of these potentially explosive issues could force a confrontation on the streets between those for and against the government, especially if the move to get Thaksin home without him facing judicial punishment is renewed again. That would be tantamount to igniting a real political conflagration.

Of course, Yingluck is aware of all the potentially calamitous scenarios. How she defuses all those time bombs by keeping a proper distance from her brother and all the various contentious factions within her party and affiliated groupings will determine to what extent she can really be herself.

-- The Nation 2013-01-10

[Moruya]

Every single one of the government's problems is of it's own making.

Half of them are hare-brained schemes used to get voted in

The other half are hare-brained schemes are to pardon Thaksin under the label of "democracy"

Every problem that they have created, they have managed badly. The cost of living is on the rise, unemployment is on the rise, the millions of tonnes of stored rice is on the rise, corruption is on the rise.

Exports are falling, revenue is falling, businesses are falling, investment is falling

With Thaksin at the helm and afraid of losing "face", they will certainly not change direction.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Moruya

[belg]

i guess many companies like to increase their prices by 40% in a few months because of this 300 baht scheme that is supposedly only cost their wage costs by 15% anyway thanks to the tax rebates

[Jawnie]

No undertaking aimed at substantive change in Thai politics and society is legitimate without repeal of Article 112, les mejeste, radical reform and equalizing of the school system, putting the army back in the barracks, and undertaking serious, long-term undercover sting operations regarding official corruption. These are some of the things people look to see happening when discussing real change in Thailand. Most other things are just window dressing.

[waza]

Its all a matter of perspective, if the PTP governments goals were an increasing democratic society with a fiscally responsible government that empowers and enriches the lives of all Thais with equality, then they have failed miserably. However, if the objective was to con their way into government with populist scheme that will potentially bankrupt the treasury while enriching each member of the Thai cabinet then it has been a stunning success.

[OzMick]

No undertaking aimed at substantive change in Thai politics and society is legitimate without repeal of Article 112, les mejeste, radical reform and equalizing of the school system, putting the army back in the barracks, and undertaking serious, long-term undercover sting operations regarding official corruption. These are some of the things people look to see happening when discussing real change in Thailand. Most other things are just window dressing.

You realise of course that not one of these issues is being addressed by the current government.

[bigbamboo]

So after Amazing Thailand and Miracle Thailand we have '2013..... Precarious Thailand'.

I guess it's got a certain ring to it.

[JurgenG]

Just by reading what is on the top of the list, you realize it is just "The Nation Talk".

The army chiefs just said they are fed up with the PAD and their unjustified and unwanted pressure. They could have had The Natioin in their criticism but for that The Nation should have any national relevance beside a small circle of grumpy and disgruntled sexpats

And then "This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister." This will be the year that she will be two years in office, beating the record of any previous democrat PM. She is also the Thai people favorite personality.

So ....

[waza]

Just by reading what is on the top of the list, you realize it is just "The Nation Talk".

The army chiefs just said they are fed up with the PAD and their unjustified and unwanted pressure. They could have had The Natioin in their criticism but for that The Nation should have any national relevance beside a small circle of grumpy and disgruntled sexpats

And then "This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister." This will be the year that she will be two years in office, beating the record of any previous democrat PM. She is also the Thai people favorite personality.

So ....

Really and how long did Abihist serve as PM and why were his approval ratings higher than Yinglucks?

[koosdeboer]

Just by reading what is on the top of the list, you realize it is just "The Nation Talk".

The army chiefs just said they are fed up with the PAD and their unjustified and unwanted pressure. They could have had The Natioin in their criticism but for that The Nation should have any national relevance beside a small circle of grumpy and disgruntled sexpats

And then "This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister." This will be the year that she will be two years in office, beating the record of any previous democrat PM. She is also the Thai people favorite personality.

So ....

I spoke to some people in lamphun. I saw they were wearing a pua thai jacket and asked them why. Answer, we are redshirts. I told them that I thought that phua thai and redshirts was not the same. They said it was the same and yingluck is beautiful.

These are the people you take serious? By the way, I didn't dare to discuss further. I have experienced some aggressive behavior before and for your information I communicated in Thai.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[hellodolly]

Just by reading what is on the top of the list, you realize it is just "The Nation Talk".

The army chiefs just said they are fed up with the PAD and their unjustified and unwanted pressure. They could have had The Natioin in their criticism but for that The Nation should have any national relevance beside a small circle of grumpy and disgruntled sexpats

And then "This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister." This will be the year that she will be two years in office, beating the record of any previous democrat PM. She is also the Thai people favorite personality.

So ....

Thailand needs a leader not a personality.

[hellodolly]

Just by reading what is on the top of the list, you realize it is just "The Nation Talk".

The army chiefs just said they are fed up with the PAD and their unjustified and unwanted pressure. They could have had The Natioin in their criticism but for that The Nation should have any national relevance beside a small circle of grumpy and disgruntled sexpats

And then "This is the year in which Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will have to prove that she is more than just her brother's younger sister." This will be the year that she will be two years in office, beating the record of any previous democrat PM. She is also the Thai people favorite personality.

So ....

Really and how long did Abihist serve as PM and why were his approval ratings higher than Yinglucks?

There you go again asking hard honest questions. Now you know that he is really not up on reality so try to be nice top him.

[inquisitive]

Prime Minister Yingluck is exceedingly popular. That is not, however, any guarantee that she will continue to be popular tomorrow or the next day. The fall from grace and popular opinion can be swift and merciless. Just look at the popularity of the last coup. I remember photos of girls in camo bikinis dancing on top of the tanks. Citizens were grateful and the leaders were popular. Now those same citizens have a far different view. Movie stars, politicians (Nixon coms to mind), and gods all share this joepardy. The speed of the fall from grace can be dizzying since popularity is usually a purely emotional thing. Hey, just think of how the relationships change between many (most?) husbands and wives after some time. Many of these once loving wives suddenly become viscious and cruel, hateful and venomous without any seeming provocation at all. They don't just stop loving their mate, but instantly switch into hate mode.

So the masses love Yingluck today. Tomorrow is another day. And then comes the next.

I'm not saying she's good or bad, I'm just saying popularity is a fickle thing. Precarious, even.