Macrohistory
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Posts posted by Macrohistory
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8 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:
PCR test positive cases, total of 25,804 official new infections. 87 official covid deaths recorded.
Rapid tests positive cases, 16,658 bringing the total of PCR and ATK results to 42,462
https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/
OWD rolling 7 day average, cases and deaths up to 17th March
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand
That's the strangest seven-day rolling average of anything I've ever seen. Kinda suggests that somebody somewhere is manipulating the figures.
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2 hours ago, mistral53 said:
Maybe its the Thai's that are the clever one's, have wised up - I have first hand knowledge of a Covid outbreak of a large group of people, nothing serious, just mild symptoms as the Omicron is known for - none of the effected people is reporting! stay low for a few days until the fever is down, go back to normal. Who is to blame them? Its a monumental hassle to be in the system - for what? Nobody gets paid time off. Its not more serious than a mild cold.
Its very clever to move on with life, and stop completely destroying the economy just for giggles.
Wait till you get to the long-term neurological and vascular damage -- that stuff will be just hilarious fun!
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8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:"The 1st study ... to demonstrate less severe disease in wave four [Omicron] after adjusting for both vaccination and prior diagnosed infection." "Our data suggests that severe outcomes could be reduced by approximately 25% due to intrinsically reduced virulence of Omicron."
"South African study of 16,753 people controls for the effects of vaccine and prior infection to find: - Omicron only about 25% less intrinsically fatal then Delta. - Most of the reduction in fatality was due to vaccination and prior infection."
Pre print
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.12.22269148v1
Meanwhile, the weekly South African excess deaths report is out, and not looking good (see graph below).
Per Worldometers, there were 181 Covid deaths in South Africa yesterday. There were 398 Covid deaths in the UK.
So it sure is a good thing that Omicron is so mild, just like a cold.
SOURCE: https://www.samrc.ac.za/research-reports
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14 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:
Meaningless unless you compare it to something. Could be worse, could be better.
What's the death rate vs Delta?
Try comparing it to deaths from the common cold.
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3 minutes ago, smedly said:
The UK is testing almost 2m per day
Thailand IMO opinion do their best to conseal numbers because they think it reflects well on Prayuth and his mates who continue to hold power
on another note - worth readinging the daily Mail online which has some emerging data as more is learnt about omicron - we are not there yet but the trend is still looking very positive
Reflecting back 2 years I wonder would we be talking about this if omicron had been the very first covid virus - I don't think we would
Meanwhile, the bodies continue to pile up worldwide:
2,025 deaths in the US
229 deaths in the UK
284 deaths in Germany
223 deaths in Italy
140 deaths in South Africa
etc.(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
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17 minutes ago, Blumpie said:
I guess when you have nothing else to add, slinging mud works.
He is highly watched and has been bang on for the entire pandemic from the beginning to now. He was the first person to be horrified at how transmissible it was far before it was released by the scientific community and was stating endlessly that the omicron variant seems to be far less virulent.
He interviews doctors from all over the world and analyses data each day point by point and explains it to dummies like me. ????
He's a clown.
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46 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:
Dr Campbell is a retired nurse.
... and a merchant of hopium. He knows what his audience wants, and he supplies it to them -- raking in the dough.
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5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:
It seems the South Africa government wants the world to think that Omicron has finished there, and is not testing much.
I agree. South Africa has a population close in size to that of the UK, but the highest case number it ever reported during the Omicron wave was c. 37,000. That's many times lower than the highest UK case number of >200,000. Doesn't make sense. Even though SA had been hit by other variants before, it was also under-vaccinated when Omicron came calling.
Excess deaths is a much harder figure to massage.
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17 minutes ago, JonnyF said:
No surprise. The next wave is here. Expect deaths to stay low with this variant.
Also expect the government's least favourite activities to be 'restricted' again shortly. Of course this will make no difference to the spread as Covid doesn't care about fake puritanism and pompous posturing.
Anecdotally, the company I work for tested around 300 employees on Tuesday before allowing us back into the offices/factory and not a single one tested positive. I was amazed, but the general gossip amongst my Thai colleagues was that the test kits that were being used are one of the brands unable to detect Omicron and will be changed for the next round of tests. I didn't bother looking into this to verify it but it makes me wonder if this is the case at many testing venues.
For insight into how Thailand's Omicron deaths might play out in reality, as opposed to fantasy, the South African "weekly excess deaths from natural causes" data are useful to consult
(Source: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2022-01-05/weekly1Jan2022.pdf )
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1 hour ago, Daithi85 said:
I'd much rather be here in thailand during all this madness,than any where else. Chilling on a beach enjoying my days while the rest of the world is enjoying endless lockdowns. Life in Thailand is good for us farangatang. ????????????
Don't look up.
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Financial Times
‘No evidence’ that Omicron is less severe than Delta, say Imperial researchers
Study warns of elevated reinfection risk but notes ‘very limited’ data on hospitalisations
Oliver Barnes and John Burn-Murdoch in London 11 MINUTES AGO
There is currently “no evidence” that the Omicron coronavirus is any less severe than the Delta strain, according to early findings from researchers at Imperial College London, which also highlighted the elevated risk of reinfection posed by Omicron and the need for booster shots to combat it.
The research, based on UK infection data, casts doubt on the hopes of some experts that a change in the virulence of the new variant would ease the pressure on health systems despite Omicron’s high levels of infectiousness…
https://www.ft.com/content/020534b3-5a54-4517-9fd1-167a5db50786
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(Steven J. Frisch):
Data out of Denmark today is very troubling, as it seems to indicate a slower onset of symptomatic disease and a much higher frequency of severe illness over time.
https://twitter.com/stevenjfrisch/status/1471570226823184398-
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Severe Omicron cases in Gauteng hospitals on Dec 16.
(% change in last 7 days)
Oxygenated
+92% to 564ICU (shifted 8 days)
+23% to 258Ventilated (shifted 16 days)
+32% to 90BIG jump in the number of oxygenated from 424 yesterday.
https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC-
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58 minutes ago, JonnyF said:
In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).
Simply, cases are doing this.
And deaths are doing this.
It's clearly far less deadly.
Deaths are a lagging indicator.
Meanwhile, below is a new report concerning the sort of thing that SARS-CoV-2 can do even when it doesn't kill. Because Omicron infects far more extensively, many more people will be subject to this kind of risk:
Medical XPress
DECEMBER 14, 2021
SARS-CoV-2 protein interacts with Parkinson's protein, promotes amyloid formation
The SARS-CoV-2 N-protein can interact with α-synuclein in the test tube and help it form amyloid fibrils, a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. Credit: Adapted from ACS Chemical Neuroscience 2021, DOI: 10.1021/acschemneuro.1c00666
Case reports of relatively young COVID-19 patients who developed Parkinson's disease within weeks of contracting the virus have led scientists to wonder if there could be a link between the two conditions. Now, researchers reporting in ACS Chemical Neuroscience have shown that, at least in the test tube, the SARS-CoV-2 N-protein interacts with a neuronal protein called α-synuclein and speeds the formation of amyloid fibrils, pathological protein bundles that have been implicated in Parkinson's disease...
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-sars-cov-protein-interacts-parkinson-amyloid.html
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44 minutes ago, JonnyF said:
In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).
Simply, cases are doing this.
And deaths are doing this.
It's clearly far less deadly.
72% of people in Gauteng Province have likely had Covid before, according to seroprevalence analysis. Add to the people who've been sick the people who've been vaccinated and your "in a largely unvaccinated population" remark becomes pointless. For the vast majority of South Africans, if they haven't been vaccinated, they've already contracted Covid before.
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Average daily Covid deaths this past week in South Africa: 27.
But yesterday, the number of Covid deaths in SA doubled to 54.
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The weekly South Africa excess deaths report is out, for the week ending 11 December. Excess deaths increased from 1,726 in the previous week (that's a downward revision) to 1,887. Omicron is a killer.
The full report is available here:
https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-12-15/weekly11Dec2021.pdf
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Omicron hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase at rapid rates in Gauteng, South Africa (the epicenter). Graphs below are from https://twitter.com/rid1tweets.
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The weekly South Africa excess deaths report is out, for the week ending 11 December. Excess deaths increased from 1,726 in the previous week (that's a downward revision) to 1,887. Omicron is a killer. The full report is available here:
https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-12-15/weekly11Dec2021.pdf
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39 minutes ago, JonnyF said:
No need to be a drama queen.
Omicron has very mild symptoms. Isolating at home will be fine for most.
Meanwhile, back in the real world (https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC):
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1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:
It's unclear to me whether the reduced severity of Delta was because Delta is milder, or whether new treatments or vaccination are widespread.
It was only "milder" in places like the UK which has a good vaccination program. Wasn't so mild in India, Indonesia, etc. In other words, the relatively mild outcome in the UK since the summer (if c. 150 deaths per day can be considered mild) is a result of the setting into which the virus was spreading, not properties intrinsic to the virus itself. The same is likely to be true for Omicron.
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Yep, looks like Omicron is just like the common cold:
(Source: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338784051441672)
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1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:
Absolutely! Just like Delta was mild:
(Source: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338784051441672)
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The SARS-CoV-2 N-protein can interact with α-synuclein in the test tube and help it form amyloid fibrils, a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. Credit: Adapted from ACS Chemical Neuroscience 2021, DOI: 10.1021/acschemneuro.1c00666
COVID-19: Thailand reports 25,804 new coronavirus cases, 87 deaths, 18,801 recoveries
in Thailand News
Posted
Every day, for weeks on end, the test positivity rate is exactly 49.11%. Imagine the probability of that happening in real life.