Macrohistory

That's generally true, although less so in places like the US and (to a lesser extent) UK where Covid-deniers abound. But behavior will have to change *radically* to prevent the easily-transmitted Omicron from causing cases to increase to levels that cause deaths to mount significantly. Let's see how things look around New Year's Day.

Whether the growth rate is technically exponential or not, the same logic applies. We will soon see how the logic plays out in the UK. (SOURCE: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch)

Great point! So what you want to do, then, is go get yourself sick with Delta, which you regard as the more serious variant, so you can protect yourself from Omicron, which you regard as the milder variant. Hope you will keep us posted on how this strategy works out.

(SOURCE for below: https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1469456805491138560)

...and almost everyone else there has had Delta or another variant.

Ridiculous to say that Omicron is "weak and feeble." It's only causing mild disease because so far it's only been expanding into populations in which the vast majority of people have either (a) already had Covid at some point, most likely from Delta; (b) been double (at least) vaxxed with an mRNA vaccine; and (c) are younger. Now let's see what happens as it rapidly expands into populations of under-vaxxed (including non-vaxxed) people and older people in places like the UK, Europe, and the US. Thailand, too, could well suffer because it has generally been using sub-par vaccines and has barely begun boosting.

Source is https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1467497066456924164

Try a little reasoning instead of mindless true-believing.

Closer to 99% by now.

Bloomberg News Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double By Antony Sguazzin December 9, 2021, 12:47 AM GMT+8 South African excess deaths, a measure of mortality above a historical average, almost doubled in the week ending Nov. 28 from the preceding seven-day period as a new coronavirus variant spread across the country. During the period 2,076 more people died than would normally be expected, the South African Medical Research Council said in a report on Wednesday. That compares with 1,091 the week earlier… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave NOTE: The correct date in the Bloomberg story should be “week ending Dec. 4,” as you can see in the original report here: https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-12-08/weekly4Dec2021.pdf

Not non-zero enough to accept the claim that Omicron is benign

How could this happen except through covering up excess Covid deaths that followed in the wake of prematurely opening up?

Meanwhile, per Steve Miller: "Severe Omicron cases in Gauteng hospitals are accelerating, increasing by over 25% in the last 24 hours." Complete thread (from which the graph below was taken) here: https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1468204385016565760

If they died from Covid in South Africa in recent days, they almost certainly died from Omicron, which has now entirely supplanted Delta. ( Graph below is from https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/07/omicron-is-already-dominant-in-south-africa )

It's astonishing that so many people on here are still drinking the Kool-Aid of thinking that Omicron causes only mild disease. With >99% of Covid cases in South Africa now caused by Omicron, hospitalization rates are soaring, and there were 27 Covid deaths yesterday alone, up from 9 the day before and only 1 two days ago. What will it take to wake people up? Graph below is for Gauteng Province only. Source: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1468349342771785734 )

The latest hospitalization data from Gauteng of course show a continued worsening of the situation, as any thinking person would expect (source: https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1467948685103230977 ) :

Yes, but basically would have to be (source is https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1467497066456924164)

Sorry, Omicron-is-serious deniers: New Zealand Herald Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: Children hospitalised with 'moderate to severe' symptoms 6 Dec, 2021 04:15 AM A South African doctor has warned that more children are being hospitalised with moderate to severe symptoms since the Omicron variant of the coronavirus took hold. Dr Rudo Mathivha, head of Intensive Care at Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital, said the shift in demographics is very worrying as the number of sick patients presenting to hospitals has increased exponentially... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-children-hospitalised-with-moderate-to-severe-symptoms/QCNS4VJU3H2WEN3UOJU5PEZXYM/

As an American, I know a lot about how Americans have been behaving during Covid. The behavior of many has been atrocious, as having the world's worst Covid record of any country indicates. So I stand by my comment. Let's see whether it emerges empirically whether this person who might have introduced Omicron to Thailand has been wearing masks and social distancing since he arrived.

Since he's an American, you have to seriously wonder whether he's been wearing masks and social-distancing. I fear not.

Here's another critical graph from South Africa that the Omicron-severity-deniers might want to consult. Bottom line is that it's way, way too early to say. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

Contrary to what you said above, the hospitalization rate is soaring.

I wish that were true, but please consult the attached graphs -- especially the one on the far right -- for the actual situation. Graphs come from here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch