Flory

I imagine the courts will be playing whack-a-mole with legal PM candidates until only the uncles are left and one of them must be selected.

All the progress and advantages over its neighbors Thailand owned during the 20th century were generated by its sputtering experiments with democracy, even though those dead-set against democracy liked to claim the credit. This century, Thailand has largely stagnated in terms of economic growth, international standing, and education. The cabal at the top has had to tighten their grip to remain where they are. Expect more turbulence as the interests of the elite and the average Thai continue to diverge. Conflicts will continue and grow as the stagnation and rot sets in more and more obviously.

For military reform to really take hold, the armed forces would first need to lose face bigtime (for example: excessive use of force against civilians -- 2010 is now too long ago) and the institution would have to side with the public. Until then, we're going to see a lot of talk and little action. Whatever changes there are will be window-dressing and will certainly not cut into the flow of funds to pockets.

If the senate's power to vote for the PM is allowed to expire gracefully and the winner of the next election is allowed to form a government without undue interference, I'll eat my words!

Right on. Any ethical considerations aside, It makes a lot of sense for him politically. He saw his party machine's popularity beginning to wane and wants to cash in his chips for the best deal he can get under the circumstances, which doesn't excuse anything, but does make it terribly, terribly predictable if you've learned to expect the worst in Thai politics.

I guess reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, and your replies are veering off into trollish territory, but I was describing the whole situation and the actors involved as evil, not Thaksin specifically. That said, he is now collaborating with the people who did overthrow the democratic system, which dirties his hands considerably. He used to at least have some "pro-democracy" credentials to fall back on. Yes, lying to deceive many people and achieve your ends is evil, regardless of how commonplace it is in politics.

Robbing millions of their rights at gunpoint is evil. Denying the rightful election winners the power to enact their policies (that people voted for) is evil. Lying through the teeth to get into power and immediately reneging on all your promises is evil. Holding the leader of a political party hostage to extract concessions is evil. Locking people up for expressing their political opinions is evil. And so on.

One year… that rings a bell. Wasn’t something important going to happen in one year… Perhaps Peua Thai goes along with an extension of the Senate’s term and even allows them to continue voting for PM or Mr. T has an unfortunate “accident” or illness while still in custody? It’s hard to put anything past “them” at this point. The whole charade is already so far beyond the pale. Evil doesn’t begin to describe.

It's pretty clear why he had to land on the same day as the PM vote. His safety and eventual freedom are collateral against PT doing anything to rock the boat. Thaksin under lock and key was the precondition for senators rubber stamping their PM candidate. Expect a long, drawn-out pardoning process, and once Mr. T. becomes a free man again, expect some other daggers to materialize to hang over his head (Revival of old court cases? New charges for past actions? Take your pick). Just don't expect a "PT-led" government to be able to do a single thing that hasn't been blessed from on high.

It appears that some Thais haven't got the message yet. In this era, votes for pro-democracy platforms and politicians go directly into the bin. The reasons for this cannot even be discussed openly, because they'll be censored. The only change now in the works is that the powers-that-be understand that the military minions can't make the economy run well enough to keep discontent at bay. That opens the door for one Tony Woodhouse to return to revive the country's economic engine as long as he drops all democratic pretense and allows junta parties a share of the power (such as interior ministry) to continue to suppress the population (freedom of speech, access to foreign media, and so on). Unfortunately for Thailand, ultra-conservative politics and Thaksin-omics (sponsored by...) may very well prove to be a stable configuration, with majority support. It all comes down to how pragmatic the remaining PT voters, who have not yet been siphoned off by MF, are.

More than that, they were able to promise the moon and more because they knew there was no chance they would be allowed to govern under the present constitution and power structure.

It's almost like he knew this day would come the moment he signed up for the job of leading FF's successor. It's almost like there's finally a critical mass of Thais that understand compromising on true systemic reform results in a short-lived civilian administration followed by another coup and X number of years of the military running the show again.

Probably a flimsy, half-hearted attempt to show people that Thai courts are "fair" and consider both sides

If only the youth could express their dismay at having their futures stolen with more decorum

Another pawn in the mold of Suthep Thangsuban and Paiboon Nititawan, but the game must be played without naming the players.

Terrific opinion piece, but the replies in this thread are some of the worst I have seen on this forum.

That's an, um... interesting way of viewing the situation. One could also make the argument that the constitutional referendum was a total sham due to the way the question was worded, the ridiculous anti-free speech laws being enforced at the time, the ongoing practice of re-education (dissidents being dragged off to military locations at gunpoint!), and the lack of alternatives. It wouldn't be too hard to argue that every last member of the "senate" should rot in prison as co-conspirators in the illegal overthrow of Thailand's sovereign government!

The move forward party will get banned to make it work, just like their predecessors.

If the goal was simply power, then yes, that would have been the correct course of action. FF and MFP are totally novel propositions in Thailand's experiment with democracy -- they are the first parties to prioritize principles and systemic reform rather than populist handouts. Prayuth and his clan have done them a huge favor in opening the eyes of large numbers of previously indifferent Thais to the deficiencies of their preferred system of governance. Until now, the conservative parties have always been the "principled" ones, although the principles have been a rather myopic view of nation, religion, and monarchy . Even PT and its past incarnations treated democratic ideals expediently -- in word and in deed.

Reruns again. Here's what's probably next: - Several rounds of voting for PM in which no winner is able to emerge. This drives home the point that representative government "doesn't work" and just causes problems (hint: the constitution was designed to cause this!) - An initially disappointing but steadily growing protest movement by MFP and PT supporters - Counter-protests by some multi-colored shirts group that "just wants everyone to get along and the country to move forward." Many of the "counter-protestors" have suspiciously short haircuts. - The protests either die out due to the hopelessness of the situation or escalate due to some overreach by security forces that becomes a rallying cry - If the protests die out, MFP gets banned in its entirety and BJT / Democrats / Military become the dominant coalition. The senate votes as a bloc to elect Anutin or somebody. PT sits in opposition again. - If the protests escalate, the security response escalates and the situation becomes chaotic. MFP are banned anyway, and the tanks roll to quell the unrest. I guess the general population will be angrier this time than after the last election, but it doesn't quite feel like they're ready to muster the strike that would be necessary to change things completely. It may still take another 4-5 years or longer to get to that point. In the meantime, the powers-that-be can march steadily in the direction of Burma if they feel the threat to their privileges will continue to grow. Remember that opposition parties there have achieved 80-90% in previous elections and were still unceremoniously unseated every time. The big drawback for the elite would be pariah status. It's debatable how long they can continue to walk this road and deceive impartial observers into believing there is actually something akin to democratic representation in TL (a hybrid-democracy model, or whatever).

Yeah, that old carrot in front of the population. Tell me you honestly believe there isn't some plan in place to either extend their terms or replace them with similar trough sucklers.

Because this is the most likely scenario if he's blocked, I guess they will let him "in" on an extremely short leash. Once his party proposes any legislation to reforms 112 or the military, the courts will expel him.

The answer is in the question itself. On a completely unrelated topic, have you ever noticed that some posts mysteriously disappear from time to time?

It's an authoritarian tactic known as a "tell." He knows he was involved and everyone else may or may not know, but by denying (admitting) it, he flexes his untouchability.

I maintain that a foreigner who selfishly wants Thailand to remain a corrupt authoritarian oligarchy against the will of its people is more off base than one who wants it to become "a model of the West"