Having been involved in sales and marketing for most of my life, including being involved in the tourism and entertainment industry, my opinion is that Thailand will probably "dodge a bullet."
This is mostly due to the little being done by alternative East Asian destinations to stick the knife into Thailand and own a portion of the market. Most marketers will tell you down times are
This means that for all the governments ill considered, illogical, spur of the moment decisions and hidden agendas, they will probably not fair too badly.
If you did an analysis of all alternative destinations they can still not measure up to the default attributes or "unique selling points" of Thailand, as an affordable tropical paradise.
Singapore is trying but has limited natural resources and is expensive by comparison to the rest of Asia. The other Asean countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia (including Bali), are just not taking the ball up! Lack of infrastructure, difficulty of entry, lack of planning, and so on are making things difficult.
Brunei has no alcohol or LBGT as a general concept. Myanmar has installed sights on all its pistols so it can continue to accurately shoot it self in the foot, and Southern China especially (Hainan) seems to have no plans to take a large chunk of the Chinese tourists who will return eventually to Thailand.
Relatively inexpensive, exotic and beautiful, Thailand, despite the authorities actions, will quickly (in relative terms) return to be the "Jewel in the Crown" for holiday makers in Asia, with or without booze and hookers.
Will the powers that be assist or accelerate that situation, I imagine in the main, only if it is in their own personal interests, however I am sure they will take the credit if my prediction is correct.