It was almost inevitable that the breakup of the Soviet Union would be the catalyst for conflict because that's what always happens when empires die. WW1 was sparked by the breakdown of the Hapsburg Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Vietnam war by the decline of French power in Indochina, the Biafran war, the Rhodesian war, multiple Indo-Pakistan wars, etc, etc, following British withdrawal, not to mention all the Middle Eastern conflicts stemming from the Sykes-Picot agreement and its arbitrarily drawn borders. Why would the breakup of the Soviet Union be any different, especially in regions and countries that had gone centuries as part of the Romanov empire before the Soviets.
Knowing all this, political issues and divisions among post Soviet states should have been handled with kid gloves diplomatically. Instead, the opposite happened. And now there's war.