Jump to content

vivananahuahin

Member
  • Posts

    400
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by vivananahuahin

  1. It is not a responsible answer for a PM an tactless, he cares more about the tourism, he forget that internet exist and these tourists read and look also all the international news, last one was on BBC and in Europe,  they are so many places in Thailand where the air is not so polluted then promote these places, again he is a seller like they say in the Times, with all my respect for his job but he makes a very big mistake now'

    • Thumbs Up 2
  2. On 2/7/2024 at 7:21 AM, Mike Lister said:

    Once again, this is a USD story, not a Baht story or a BOT interest rate story. THB is valued against USD and USD has strengthened since the start of the year, especially since the start of this month. This is because fewer people believe the Fed. will cut rates as aggressively as hoped, beginning in March. As USD has strengthened, THB has devalued further, Thailand has little influence over that. Cutting the BOT rate is not going to change that THB value, if anything it will worsen matters. 

     

    It's a fallacy that cutting interest rates helps exports, exports are only helped if the economy of the buying country is improving or in good shape and the buyer is able to buy. THB is already 35.5 which is far weaker than its 5 or 10 year average, cutting rates will only weaken it further and cause inflation to worsen, especially if the government goes ahead with its giveaway. USD/THB in the range of 32/34 is good value for both sides of the exports equation although expats and tourists want it much lower, I accept that!

     

    And anyway, by what measure is the Thai economy faltering? Exports are down slightly because the China market is not performing but monthly exports are still pushing USD 23/24 billion per month which is well above trend and the 5/10 year averages. Tourism numbers are recovering and are heading back to pre-covid numbers? Where is this crisis that demands Central Bank rates be cut? Ah wait, it's the crisis that profits in business are not high enough and central bank rate is still too high, to borrow money to give away and ensure government popularity, hmmm!

     

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1W

    Screenshot(20).png.d43e7a836618a35bb9c76259032f11fc.png

     

    Screenshot(16).png.ac88fc31c8db6797d8cc925a3a8bb89b.png

     

     

    Screenshot (18).png

    Screenshot(21).png.d5f7a04acf2bfae0f0409d5ce8a0b60a.png

    not my opinion, we will see in may 2024.

×
×
  • Create New...