chippendalesam

The whole thing is TINK TONK! In this land of official xenephobia, investing, is like dropping a gold coin in the desert sands, the more you try to retreive it; the further it sinks!

Very well put,

I've always been inclined to rent instead of own, so it's a none issue to me, keeps my mobility unencumbered,

Knowlegeable men and women; how or does this pertain to me (a U.S. A citizen) under the treaty of amity with Thailand? I as a U.S. citizen can own a majority or all of the shares of a company. So my question is does this latest foray by the min. of interior remain irrelivent to me?

Harmonica, sorry to have missed so many of your earlier messeges directed at me.  As you recall, you were not sure why the SET was drifting away from the Baht when i mentioned it.  You decided to stay away but i stayed on, however i restructured my holdings.  The last time i wrote i was in the midst of exiting speculative positions on the SET with the exception of one very good tip, which you declined to take up.  I am still in the red now even after having consolidated in time to certain favourite defensive stocks, but the damage is not bad and i'm not too concerned based on the ridiculous dividend yields at these price levels

As to the one very good tip i had for you, perhaps i should have clarified that it was not based on technicals nor fundamentals....it hardly lost any ground throughout this period except for yesterday, and its back up again today.  Its resilience places it well for another rally which should see it gain another 20% at least. 

I am very much encouraged by your latest prediction for a 680-720 run.

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Firstly I am pleased to hear that your losses, if any, were limited and that your key stock held its ground. That is indeed good news. I was worried about you there for a while because SET gave up considerable ground.

Secondly, my apologies if I didn't seem enthusiastic to hear your stock tip -- its just that I was not ready to buy or enter the market. That is the sole reason. Nothing personal, I can assure you.

Thirdly, you are absolutely correct in recalling that I had mentioned I didn't know why the SET and Baht drifted apart. Frankly I still don't know the reason. But sooner or later it will come to me. My main point was that when such a disparity occurs, it can rarely be a good sign; mostly it reflects some form of rupture. More on this when I've got concrete explanations!

Have a good weekend!

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" holy shit Batman" the baht closed at 42.40- US dollar today! Even I didn't think it(the baht) would close that weak. Very good for those in Thailand with the US dollar, a little more fun than usual this week-end for them in the "land of smiles". Sam out.

Harmonica, thanks.  There was a big rally yesterday and as of lunch time today its sitting on 690!  I have a couple of really good tips and if your willing to play you can pm me.

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You're welcome, dude. Yeah I am well aware of that big rally and am also quite pleased that you are making money and doing well!

I'm staying out for now.

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Dude, you naughty boy -- trying to get me to enter SET Index exactly @ a TOP! ..... see the red arrow in the chart below. Also note the red arrow in the lower window showing the big volume bars towards the right hand side of the chart -- all but one of those large bars are "downside" volume. Just something for you to take note of, not get discouraged, amigo. Battle lost, but you'll win the war.

Lucky for me, I declined your invitation, don't you think?

But, don't let this bother you -- your invitations are always welcome and so is your SET insight, right or wrong. We do our work and we call it -- if wrong, so what! At least we called it!

I hope you didn't get caught in the mini-crash?

But, again just to cheer you up, don't panic -- there is a wave C rally coming up in the near future, just as soon as this current downleg (wave ends.

So don't fret.

But next time try to pay attention to the Baht -- SET will not happily go against her distress calls. They are loving twins and I would not bet against them!

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And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

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And it gets even worse -- SET was down a whopping 15 points in trading today. Don't know whether she will climb back up and reduce her losses today or not.

The point however, is quite clear. Some would state that Crude Oil is doing the damage. It is quite possible that Crude is playing into the psyche of SET players, but SET's primary driver is the currency & the Baht is weakening. The correlation between Oil and SET is nowhere near as good an indicator as the Baht/SET combo.

When Dude pointed out that SET was going against the Baht, possibly indicating that their relationship is now different -- I believe that perhaps condo also mentioned something to this effect and that it is OK to climb back into the SET and buy!

But to me such an occurrence is a distinct red light, a warning signal to be on high alert for danger!

And DANGER has been with us for several days and has today poured on the coal!

Tomorrow is a new day however. Things could change. One day at a time for SET, then!

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SET closed at it LOW today July7,05-638.31. Will it go lower in the NEAR(1 or 2 weeks) future? YES! I will seriously look to go long around the 600 mark. Look at that downtrend line the last week or so!!!!! What do others thinlk??????

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html

For those who desire instant Thai Baht, Japanese Yen and other regional currency action,  check out the link above, courtesy of Bloomberg.  They say it gets updated every 15 mins., but I have found it to be much more frequent than that.  It is my homepage currently.

Maka's Universal Currency link is also outstanding and  gives instant, real-time currency quotes.  But the Bloomberg page gives you ALL the currencies at a glance @ reasonably close to real-time view.

And where is Miss Baht now?

41.717 

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Shall the baht cross 42 today, July8,2005? YES, for the weekend play money.

Dear Wormdrive, Along with physical fitness, goes mental and emotional fitness. These are a part of a good rounded health club atmosphere. Nothing or no-one is perfect; health clubs get over crowded at peak hours, but that is when your mental and emotional physique should be worked on. Just my 2 satangs worth, keep on smileing through it all......

I just now saw on the Bangkok Bank FX site the baht was 40.39 to the US dollar. My question to you who follow this closely is, why? Why this uptick the last 5 days? Any opinion would be appreciated.

In a word, no.

Partly, I would think because it would serve no real purpose for Thailand just now, and partly because they know they couldn't even if they wanted to (after the debacle of 1997, the central banki obviously understands that now).

The ability of a cental bank in a small country to manipulate the value of a minor currency is so limited as to be effectively useless. The level of the Thai baht is going to be determined by a vastly greater powers than the Thai government can bring to the table (the unexpected uptick in the US dollar and the looming adjustments to the Chinese monetary system being two of the major players right at the moment).

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Dear Asiahand, it seems to me you may be well versed in the currency trade business. I am a youngster, please give me your on opinion on where the baht will be to the U.S. dollar by years end 2005. Thanks for your time, Sam. Old I guess in experience, aye asia hand ?

THAI LAW

"Thai law requires that 51% of the shares be held by Thai juristic persons,    however, any company with more than 40% foreign interest that purchases land will be investigated by the Central Land Office in Bangkok (under section 74 of the Land Code) to ensure that the company has not been organized in an attempt to circumvent the prohibition against foreign ownership of land."

The only differences between what different law offices state seems to on whether a company owning over 40% is investigated or Automatically investigated.However if you are going to purchase land by starting up a company who's sole intention is to circumvent the prohibition against foreign ownership of land then you are breaking the law and should the Central Land office decide to investigate then you will be forced to sell the land in a time not less than 180 days and not more than 1 year, after which it will be taken over by the government.

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Thank-you all for a VERY informative thread gentlemen. I am trying to gather all the information and knowledge I can from some VERY wise ex-pats in Thailand. I am an American citizen, so please correct me if I am incorrect, but I as an American citizen can have a Thai co. and own a house with it?????? I believe this is a relatively recent law, and a bit of a discrepency weather it is still valid....???? I belive it still is valid, any input from you wise, young and old sages would be greatly appreciated.

Here's another source:

SuperBlock

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Mr. Norman is that your blog per-chance? If it is, VERY WELL DONE. I desire to someday (hopefully within 2 years build a house in Thailand), perhaps I could put you to work????? Thanks again for some VERY enjoyable reading.

Happy new year everyone.  I'm back from a 2 week break and i'm just shocked to see this thread still alive, although there's only 1 (or 2?) persons left talking.

Anyway, i'm going to be contrarian to the contrarians and say the Bahts going up next week.  I have no charts to show for it, just a hunch.

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Happy New Yeaqr to you too, dude!

Repeat condo_bk's question -- what does Baht going up mean to you? weaker or stronger?

1 or 2, but now we have 3 or 4?

and counting chuchok and thaiaan as lurkers we have 5 or 6. that ain't so bad, is it?

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I lurk here also. Chime in once in a while. I hope he ment baht going up ment to 40.00 or above....????

Oversight:

Maka,

Note that Yen has crossed the green line (200-day moving average) while Baht has yet to do so.

The crossing of the 200-day has not gone unnoticed by large Insitutional players.

All very good for our buddy, the $.

Adios amigo

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I can't buy my house in Thailand until the baht reaches 42 again. Any opinions on if and when this might happen?

Good thing I went to bed early. 

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat.  I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day.  That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping  Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is! 

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I think U were pleased with the nasdaq today, +19.65, and the QQQQ over 37 in after hours trades. I M long QQQQ also. Good-luck!!!!!!

Good thing I went to bed early. 

Nasdaq gave up her gains and closed flat.  I'm still in & LONG! No reason to change!

But I think I know why the market is stymied!!

The Nasdaq 100 and the SOX (Philapdelphia Semicondictor Index) are both struggling to climb back over the 200-day.  That's what's holding us up now.

As soon as they get over this hurdle there should be nothing stopping  Nas.

She is the boss, but I can have an opinion and that's all it is! 

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