Zao

Thai TV has reported the culprit has a history of extreme violence and a police record. I will let others fill in the details. His parents admitted they didn't know how to control the boy. Absolutely tragic.

Here are some other examples of (occasionally!) successful on-line business models:

1. Annual Report Writing and Production
2. Resume/Cover Letter Writing
3. Master's/PhD Dissertation Editing
4. eBook Author/Knowledge Product Originator (self-publish eBooks, audio, on-line courses)
5. Testing and Test Prep Services

1. Investor Relations/Public Relations
2. Socially Responsible PR Services/CSR Coaching
3. Manage Social Media Profiles/ Social media consultant
4. Crowd Funding Consultant
5. Local Marketing/Multicultural Marketing Expert

1. Health/Nutrition Coach
2. App Development (pretty large up-front costs these days)
3. Paid Research
4. Medical Transcription
5. Virtual Staff/Outsource Staff

1. Domain Hosting
2. You Tube Video Producer
3. Selling Your Sports Photo's, Travel Photo's and Photo Bank
4. Blogging (w/ AdSns add-in, when you have the traffic)
5. Affiliate Marketing

1. Disaster Preparedness Consulting for Corporations
2. Cloud-testing services for clients. Apps, websites, e-commerce
3. Currency/Stock Trading from Home
4. HR Services for Corporations
5. Employee Coaching/Staff Development Plans/Career Coaching

This thread is to collect our experience/advice on starting an on-line business.

Preference for those with actual experience - successful or not - with on-line ventures! Let's keep this clean (at least by our standards!) It might be useful to some.

For what they're worth, here are my comments.

First, on-line ventures have hit their stride. This is a golden time to start one. As the context for a business these days, you have the choice of almost every sector or topic in which you may have a skill; indeed, that will be your first challenge.

Second, as other posters noted, keep your day job. On-line ventures require a minimum 3 years to incubate - probably 7 - before you will see a livable return. Plan for it. Exceptions to this rule do not exist.

Third, on-line ventures are best approached as being like both restaurants and a novel.

Similar to restaurants: high fail rate, fickle customers, numerous alternatives, need for a niche, need for extraordinary marketing, need for regular updating, choice of either "franchise" or "independent" approach, might be tiny or large, require tremendous commitments of your time; anybody can try it

That said: no or low start-up costs, other than your time; easy to experiment; no inventory; no employee theft

Similar to novels: everyone's a "writer", few actually write; require structure and are driven by character, plot, a story line, etc; even if not a commercial success, it might be the most satisfying thing you do in your life; commit to "writing 5 pages a day"; build on a particular skill you already have; need something unique to stand out from an ocean of medocrity; require excellent content, to be sure, but also a good cover; require tremendous commitments of your time

That said: you will be copied; the service you provide will be available elsewhere on the Web for free; you will depend on your "readers" (repeat visitors to your site) for the brand value and continued success of your site. This last point is critical, and often overlooked

Fourth, on-line ventures must address 8 principles of commerciality: traffic, stickiness, repeat visits, monetization, interactivity, community, the freebie effect, client leverage/cross-sell

• How will you drive and continuously increase traffic to your site?
• How will you encourage your visitors to spend more time on your site once they are there?
• How will you increase repeat visits?
• How will you convert your traffic to income?
• How will you match the level of interactivity with the promise of your branding?
• How will you build a community that increases, and does not diminish, the value and reach of your site?
• How will you generate income, even though your service is (or will very soon be) widely available for free elsewhere on the Net?
• What additional/complementary services will you provide to your satisfied clients?

For each of the above, you might consider: how does a supermarket do this? how does a fast-food or coffee chain do this? how might an ambitious night-club do this?

Once you answer these questions, you are very close to having an on-line idea with an above average chance of generating income. After 3+ years incubation. Don't quit your day job.

A Couple Examples

On a previous thread, OP had asked about starting an on-line venture in Thailand. Needless to say, the question really is just "on-line venture". Quality hosting - including free hosting - is available anywhere. LOS' somewhat unreliable and high cost Internet service is a constraint. That said, I have heard that IT has at some point been favored by BOI, but don't know if that is still the case.

There are literally as many possibilities for a money-making on-line venture, as there are ideas for a book or menus for a restaurant. Most of those will fail. Don't let that stop you. Let it sharpen your focus. I can't emphasize this enough: thousands of possible successful ventures exist. Choose an idea. Consider your experience and skills. Build on them. Subject your idea to the principles of commerciality. Choose free hosting to get you started. Build cache for your site.

Nonetheless, OP had originally specified "former-teacher, based in Thailand". So, to possibly spark some people's thinking, here are three examples of on-line success - ie, examples of someone combining personal interest with a structured gameplan to create a money-making venture - that could possibly be the type of service someone with the skills of a teacher could launch in Thailand:

1) The Milan-based Specialty Web Designer: a non-Italian, previously a mediocre banker with no unique IT skill, but some interest in fashion and a strong desire to live in Italy, succeeds as a web designer to some of Italy's top fashion brands. How? He exploits an unmet niche: he notes all the top fashion houses lack an on-line presence; he creates a site-design approach and architecture that fits the high-end sales, marketing, and client base; he delivers with a high-touch, on-the-ground, highly tailored client-service approach.

In Thailand, foreign teachers get paid - perhaps not all great - to use their knowledge, creativity, and English (and patience!). The same can be transferred to speciality web design, where a local presence, creativity, and global outlook, are key: What industries is Thailand promoting for exports? What sectors target non-Thais? Dozens of candidate sectors exist. As just one example, have you ever visited the English website of the well known German brewery? They, and a hundred other F&B outlets, need your help.

Possible add-on/complementary services: Annual Report writing/IR/PR; menu design; promotional event design and execution; frequent-customer programme design and execution, etc.

2) The Paid Blogger: a number of well known on-line ventures generate most of their income by providing content to and for others. The Net supports how many websites - 400 million? And that's not counting the Dark Web! There is a huge demand for content. Those with strong writing skills can get paid for content-writing and PR services. Lower paid projects might start at around £1 per 100 words. Quality projects might reach £2.50-10 per 100 words.

Possible add-on/complementary services: travel writer; paid product reviewer (freebie products!), free-lance article writer; paid F&B outlet reviewer; PR firm; PPT presentation/public speech writer/coach

3) The Small-Time eCommerce Shopkeeper: you don't have to be a Tony Hsieh - or, let's be accurate, a Nick Swinmurn, yet another under-recognized and under-compensated British Net pioneer - to make a nice little nest egg from eCommerce. Though it helps, if your endgame is Jeff Bezos. What? You've not heard of Nick and his firm? That just shows how big the Net really is and how much room there is for your own little Thai-based venture. Nowadays you can get a catchy, easy to use, fully functional ecommerce shop up and running for as little as £500. Fulfillment from LOS may be surprisingly cheap, particularly within the region, with a possible focus on niche products and the region's monied. Hint: for a small venture, a key is originating your own products and brands.

Possible add-on/complementary services: product developer/originator; customized/corporate bulk sales; "virtual" products and services; high-end and one-of-a-kind designs/products for hotels, etc

I guess if we lost at discussion about rates we are looking in wrong direction and wrong data.

Happens a lot.

Yes, that's right. It's 100% forward looking. So, what is the context for Sterling/Baht by late-2015, when I will face the final transfer on my condo? Suthep still around? A Soros to rain on my parade?

The challenge is how to frame it in actionable reality. That requires a bit of history to set the context, even if rates reflect future fundamentals. No one really expects a Soros to bust Sterling tomorrow. But yes, the direction and data have to be forward looking.

You'd be surprised though. CTAs are among the monsters in the exchange markets. They are basically looking at charts - buy and sell signals. They don't pay any attention to future expectations or forecasts.

For deciding about whether to change sterling into baht I think I am a little more focussed on current Thai political developments than meanderings about the origination of the most recent US financial crisis.

Ha, ha. Fair enough. The meanderings were over the top. No one wants to re-hatch all that crap. I can't even keep my eyes focused long enough to re-read it!

He did bring up QE and ask for an explanation - not on changing (that was OP), but on why one might expect a post-54 Sterling. You're not at least intrigued by LAS - Life After Suthep? C'mon. Most in Bangkok have to turn on their TVs to get any sign of protests.

That said, clearly, busloads of Pearl Delta housewives agree with you and your focus on current Thai politics. They're cancelling their LOS shopping sprees, and heading off to Harrod's. Happiness for us.

But you know well. Institutional money moves the exchange. They could care less. We're talking forex here, not SET. If institutionals were planning to move money here last year, they will still do so. If BOT is unhappy with the short-term protest effects, they will just buy. But most institutionals have been taking cash back home long term for reasons that have nothing to do with the current fun, and BOT can do little about that.

However, if you're interested in the short term - and OP is - the real question is when BOT will return LOS to 3%. That will have the bigger, and let's be honest, the only impact on the Baht this year. Beyond that, Sterling continues its recovery.

Thanks, guys. I appreciate your help.

Phuket will lose nothing to Langkawi.

Yes, the priority is the health of your industry and all related yachting businesses and workers. The taxes will cause more grumbling. The extra tax income will not be directly re-invested. But most - I will say all - owners will stay, and return.

The focus here is on charters. They know who they are. They will get hit, and be forced to pay up. They should pay up. In private, foreign owners who are not charters are fine with this. (That said, unfortunately, Jena may see a bit less of Mert! Sorry Mert!)

The reality is, Langkawi is a far less pleasant overall experience than Phuket, bottom line. Those that have some attraction there, are there in Langkawi already. Most of us have commitments, preferences, and long-term ties to Phuket, including some with condo's, that will not in the least be affected by the change in the fee regime.

Further, beyond Langkawi's marina's, for boats that anchor, it's nasty. 90% of the anchorages in and around Langkawi have a bottom of thick, rancid, stinking, clinging black mud - on par with a Koh Tao septic tank. Most yachts have a good chain and deck washdown system, but it's still unpleasant. On land and off, Langkawi is not nearly as welcoming.

What Phuket must really worry about are the new marina's being planned in the region outside of Thailand.

To say this is a Bangkok elitist fight against rural farmers is a smack to every hard working class southern thai that supports the Dems and has traveled up to Bangkok. I think a lot people don't realize that Thailand is more than Isaan and Bangkok. There is an entire southern region. They aren't Bangkok elitistests. They don't vote for PTP. Of course its a power struggle, its a struggle to control trillions of baht loans and mega-projects. Sure there is waste and corruption on both sides. PTP bribed the rural farmers with subsidies at the expense of everyone else in Thailand. The rubber farmers have been feeling the squeeze for the last few years and when they ask the gov. for help, Nothing from the current gov. Just my few thoughts.

You really don't have a handle on Thailand. Suthep is an old-time career politician from Surat Thani, the heart of the southern provinces to which you refer.

The "rubber farmers have been feeling the squeeze"? Are you serious? Do you even know how rubber plantations work? Huge swaths of land are owned by wealthy landowners. They and they alone have been squeezing farm laborers, and have done so for decades. Rubber farm laborers do not own their land. Wealthy landowners do, and pay them squat.

The only reason rubber farming has become an issue is that landowners converted their plantations to rubber in a roll of the dice when the commodity's prices were high, and the over-supply bit them in the ass.

Rice farmers, by contrast, are largely small-plot, individual farmers. They don't roll the dice hoping for a big payout on the back of farm laborers. They do the work themselves. And they receive almost nothing for the effort, after costs, except whining from privileged Bangkok Thai's that the cost of their food has increased.

The reason you see lots of southern farm laborers in BKK is that they are transported there, fed, sheltered, and entertained, and paid a daily wage to be there.

Suthep is a well known career politician from the 1990s. As Minister of Transport and Communications in the administration Thaksin displaced, he was prosecuted for land corruption and bank embezzlement in Surat Thani. This is nothing but an elitist temper tantrum over the spoils of office. Get real.

Is there possibly a play for Thai buyers in Pattaya's condo market?

What I mean to say is, with the 49% foreign quota selling out more quickly and Thai demand in Pattaya more modest, can Thai buyers get an equivalent unit at a discount? About how long do Thai quota units remain unsold before serious discounting kicks in, if ever?

One could arguably consider taking the Heinecke route and become a naturalized Thai citizen. I'm kidding about that, though for some it arguably could be attractive. But the above question is serious, if anyone has a thought.

Thanks!

Does anyone know of, or have experience with, the Suchawalai Group?

They are doing a bunch of recent high-end new developments, but seem to have limited experience. Not much info available on them.

Does you possibly know the principals behind the Group?

Thanks!

Sorry to disappoint you but the world does not care in the slightest about a small insignificant country in Asia nor in who runs it.

you need to go back to school and read up about America/Vietnam and what America did to Cambodia and Laos because of the little insignificant country called Vietnam.. How about Korea? Another insignificant country in Asia? What a retard you are mush

Yes, I gotta weigh in on the side of reality: The world does not care in the slightest what's happening in LOS. It's a circus, a headline, an embarrassment - at best a diversion from genuine conflicts unfolding in Syria, Egypt, Sudan or CAR.

If anything, the world is only shocked at the stark contrast between the maturity, growth and dignity of Singapore's civic engagement and democracy since independence - the resource-less den of thieves jilted by Malaysia and faced with having to meld three disparate and genuinely conflicting cultures - and the decline in Thailand's civic engagement from the majestic and promising days of the October 14 Uprising, Sanya Dharmasakti, and the sacrifices of the '76 TU Massacre, when privileged activists genuinely cared for and sought to engage the disenfranchised and down-trodden.

Raising Viet Nam in this context is tacky. Vietnamese lost their lives fighting for independence. Americans in service of their government. The world cared because, regardless of side, unalienable principles were at stake. Viet Nam was a different time, a different principle, a different place.

They mattered.

It could the yellow shirts pretending to be red shirts to cause trouble, it could be the black shirts wanting to show who’s boss , it could be the pink shirt who have their knickers in a twist.

It could be the clean shirts bullying the smelly shirts. Where is Mr. Sparkle when you need him!

On the bright side...it seems Thailand's "One Tablet One Child" programme was a success after all

Amusing as this all is, it is also sad Malala wasn't granted the recognition she clearly deserved, robbed by a social media campaign. If you have ever seen her interviewed, it is pretty clear who is more deserving of the award, up there with previous winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

Exactly. Robbed by a social media campaign. Disgraceful. Everyone who joined in this charade should be ashamed, regardless of political affiliation.

You can bet not one is even thinking twice about it.

This is just one milestone of many in Asia Society's long-standing decline. It's a shame. At its founding in '56, AS was a jewel in John III's fabulous philanthropy - the only of the Rockefeller brothers to shun politics and business, and focus his life on service. Along with AS, he gave us New York's Lincoln Center, the United Negro College Fund, the first academic program for Non-Profit Management (at Yale). So many other contributions not widely recognized.

Today, the only thing notable about AS is its New York gallery and collection of Rockefeller Asian art.

AS has been trying to re-invent itself and find a purpose for years. Its most recent gaffe: the selection in June 2013 of its new CEO - Josie Sheeran, a Bush fundraiser and political appointee, and former 20 year fanatic of the Unification Church, the South Korean cult.

Quote of Sun Myung Moon: "I will conquer and subjugate the world. I am your brain." Sound familiar?

Sheeran was a political appointee forced onto one of the UN agencies by Bush - that would be the Bush without a passport - after raising lots of Church money for Bush, in exchange for friendly coverage as a journalist and a failed stint as a Bush Trade Rep. She got her start in in "journalism" with a Unification-owned paper in Washington.

Compare Sheeran, who achieved all of a BA from Colorado's notoriously flaky Boulder campus, to her predecessor at AS: the talented and internationally respected Dr. Vishakla Desai, one of the world's leading experts in Asian art. She is known to have left AS two years ago in disgust.

The Asia Society of today is a sham. Indeed, this "Asia Person of the Year Award" is all of...3 years old. A PR ploy. In two of those years, AS readily admits the results were gamed: the first in favor of Imran Khan. Would a serious organization conduct an award in this way? We have only to look to serious organizations for the answer: the Booker Man Price, for example, the Nobel, or countless others.

This year's social media sham affects far more than Ms. Yousafzai. She has had more recognition and awards than she probably even wants, and handles them all with amazing grace. Other potential recipients, and the values they fight for, who genuinely need international recognition, have lost out.

We have lost out.

These might include nominated names such as Film Director Jia Zhangke, who depicted the reality of China today in the controversial Touch of Sin. No surprise, the AS nominee list included a variety of freaks, and left out a world of serious activists: Liu Xiaobo, the imprisoned Chinese human rights activist and eminent scholar, as but one example.

You'd think our Thai friends might have at least thought to write in Ladda Duckworth, the first woman of Thai descent to have risen to prominence in a foreign government - and that while missing both legs.

Frankly, I am disgusted by the applause this maneuver has received on this Forum. But my disgust goes to Asia Society: it deserves its decline.

Ditto on all of the above. Most condo's are sold semi-furnished. IMO, the furniture is an opportunity to negotiate the price down - even if you'd really rather have it (e.g., for a quicker rent). In-built furniture that is still in decent shape, but the cheap quality stuff common here, is a bitch. No one will take it out, but you have to deal with it.

That said, the worst situation is when you find a condo you really want, and the owner has just recently renovated with the hope of getting a better price - everything fresh, new, and decked out in the latest faux Qing. Try negotiating that down.

Most owners will not agree to a "removal fee" : take it as is, or leave it.

But I have found it helps to compliment their choice and style, but come with a mock up or color schemes to show that you guys were hoping to do something completely different and don't get any value from their leftovers. This should help you get a reasonable price. You can then tell them they are welcome to leave the furniture, if they don't want to deal with the cost. You can sell it to a local who will pick it up for free or as part of your remodel.

Bought a small house on a golf course, it was full of junk furniture including paintings and silverware. I gave that to the installs so they can never say I never gave them anything........

You are generous, indeed.

"Installs": would that be the in-laws that are nesting out back in your barn?

Now that they have their treasure, perhaps Falangadang will help you upgrade them to that add on room with the tap. I've seen a few of those myself.

I have a question:

GBP/THB is actually at or very near a level now that it was before QE started ((52 then (November 2008)vs 54 now)), factor in a couple of baht as a result of the current political unrest and the numbers broadly reconcile. That being true, why do people think that QE tapering will further weaken the baht?

The key to the answer is that QE tapering is but one factor and the starting point makes a difference.

For comparison, you've chosen start of QE money flow, with good reason. However, the "start" of QE is arguably when the tensions built up in the US economy: not so much when Lehman collapsed, as when the causes of the collapse took root.

Some observed this as early as 2003. For those in the industry, there was this unprecedented and really weird aberration in the way MBS (issued by Fannie/Freddie) moved in relation to US T's. US T's had been a highly reliable and exhaustively modeled hedge for riskier MBS. The aberration occurred twice: in March and October 2003. It actually caused the collapse of a little-known, but in its niche huge bond fund called Clinton Group.

Arguably, this time could a comparator.

Another could be 2006. By 2006, amidst the orgy of mortgage origination, AAA-rated CDO bonds yielded only 2% more than US T's, the global benchmark for safety. Simultaneously, by late 2006, the cost of default swaps on subprime CDOs had jumped sharply.

What does that mean?

Only someone in the industry would see the gaping contradiction here: investors - primarily Europe's banks, searching for an easier way to increase their profits than, God forbid, taking deposits and lending money - had convinced themselves that CDO bonds were as safe as US government bonds: the extra interest they required of the high-risk CDOs by 2006 was almost zero. Just a few quarters back, the interest rate differential had been much higher.

And what of the swaps? Credit default swaps are insurance. At the same time that Europe's banks had convinced themselves that high-risk CDOs were cash-equivalent (and were adding billions of them to their balance sheets each quarter as Tier 1 capital, ie, without adding reserve capital), the cost of insuring against credit default had risen to the highest point ever recorded. This was a blaring siren that something was amiss. Banks had simply to look at the cost of default swaps and act. Instead, most simply broke their "unnecessarily conservative" asset-risk-management rules and stopped buying default-swap insurance.

With that gibberish in mind, we can look at dates: GBP/THB at Lehman's collapse: it had jumped up to about 66. During the 2006 origination orgy, about 70. In 2004, after the 2003 aberrations had become clear, 75.

Thus, QE tapering could easily take us back to 66, rather than just 52 or so when the QE money started flowing. More important, in 2008, the balance sheets (corporate, personal and sovereign) of economies such as Thailand were cash-rich and in very good shape. They are not now.

The one thing that will moderate GBP/THB (and USD/THB) movements in the near-term is when BOT raises interest rates back to 3%, or even more. They will need to do this - probably around October 2014, but maybe earlier - to attract foreign capital into the economy away from now higher-yielding US govt bonds and to keep a lid on property speculators. However, this will have only a short-term impact. My guess is we get back to 3% interest rates this year, and not much more.

Thereafter, the Thai economy will adjust to supplant costlier foreign capital with domestic sources, or with countries such as China seeking to diversify their reserves away from USD. With QE done and Thai interest rates not artificially drawing in cash, exchange rates will continue to move to reflect economic fundamentals. I think it is at least 2016 by when all the excess capacity and credit in Thailand's economy gets worked out.

The AEC, tourism, manufacturing, and other positives in Thailand's economy will certainly moderate the Baht's retreat. Thailand's economy has a lot to be proud of. But I'm not sure that we fully appreciate the potential, magnitude and force of Burma's and Viet Nam's economies. They won't immediately affect LOS economic growth (or benefit its consumers!) Thailand's insular import tax crutch takes care of this. But they will affect LOS exports. As alternatives to Thai products become more and more available, Thailand's manufacturers will struggle to maintain exports. A weaker Baht will be one tool to support them.

On this point, a slightly unrelated anecdote: have you noticed how much cheaper Thai goods are outside the country? Cambodia is the easiest example, with its proximity and favorable import regime. But check it out when you are back home, too. In Cambodia, you can get all kinds of Thai-made goods for about 15% less than what you can buy them here. Viet Nam products - from furniture to food - are phenomenally high quality and cheap.

It's the old two-tier pricing in reverse! Tourists aren't the only ones who get it. Thai corporates are milking the Thai consumer. Long term, that will come back to bite.

[Edit: I mistakenly posted this comment as a new thread, and move it here just for continuity. I've seen the article just now. Sorry to subject you guys to yet more.]

Here's my 2 pence on the article.

The only fault with the article is the lame-ass conclusion. I guess the author was exhausted by that point. I submitted a couple of papers like that in school, I think!

In the final section "How Thailand's Bubble Economy Will Pop", after exhaustive analysis of not exactly easy to collect data and some fairly incisive points, he wraps up with a gaping waffle:

"Thailand’s bubble will most likely pop when China’s economic bubble pops."

C'mon! What a cop out. Give your prose some balls.

His wimp out continues with "and/or as global and local interest rates continue to rise, which are what caused the country’s credit and asset bubble in the first place."

What does that even mean? Global interest rates dropping (plus QE) encouraged the flood of money into Thailand. They are now rising. But the credit and asset bubbles were caused by low global interest rates. Further, local interest rates are falling, not rising. 2013 saw two rate cuts in Thailand - June and November - to the lowest in three years, and this year should see BOT make one more cut.

To be fair, what he was trying to say is that as QE tapering once again builds momentum, BOT may - at some point - have to raise rates to attract foreign capital. Indeed, IMO, a rate rise in late 2014 would not be a surprise.

Further, Thailand has lower inflation than other Asians. This means "real interest rates" - I'm about to nod off - had been rising. Other economies - India, Indonesia - have been raising rates to combat inflation and attract foreign funds, because US bond yields have been trending higher. (US bond yields rise as QE falls. Zzzzz.) To attract foreign capital away from "safe" US bonds, Thailand will have to raise rates, once the economy firms up. But anything higher than 3% (they had hit 5% briefly in 2006) will be quite a ways off: Thailand has a lot of excess capacity to use up before economic growth can kick in.

Ok. Now I'm sleeping.

Still, aside from blaming the Chinese gorilla - kind of like blaming McDonalds for the world's fat people: easy to do, but tough to link - I don't think he's made a case for how Thailand's Bubble Will Pop.

Anybody have any thoughts? How might Thailand's bubble pop?

Clearly the key will be something that brings consumer and public debt crashing in on itself. This occurred in Japan in the late 1980s, but the situation is different. Or is it? What triggers an asset class crash? What holds the key for the Thai economy's future? Or is all this talk of a bubble simply rubbish?

I've got my own guess on this. I'll add it in a later post.

Zao ... you weren't to know that, but that article was first posted by the Thai Visa's News Guys back in November last year ... thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash ... and has been shown many times since.

Oh no, I'm an over-zealous newbie! That's the worst.

Ok, thanks for letting me know. I should have searched first. It's pretty obvious an article like this would get picked up in the same month it was published, and probably the same day. I see it was kicked around a lot too. Sorry to Wonka, too, for bringing you into my frenzied world!

I'm not really convinced a "bubble crash" is in Thailand's future. I was kind of baiting believers, anyways, so it serves me right. Your point below back then was exactly right: the author has an agenda...namely, more advertising on his blog. He and I both should cut back on the espresso.

What exactly is an "anti-bubble activist" anyways?

Forbes' credential are beyond reproach.

The author's however ...

I am an economic analyst and anti-economic bubble activist who was recognized by the London Times for predicting the Global Financial Crisis. I am currently warning about growing bubbles in Canada, Australia, Nordic countries, China, emerging markets, Web 2.0 startups, U.S. higher education, and more. I believe that the popping of these bubbles will cause the next financial crisis. You can learn more about me on my Wikipedia page.

Every recent article written by the Author has the word 'Bubble' in it ...

.

I think the long term view here is worth noting:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

Wonka, well done. This a a great read. Thanks for sharing it.

I added your post to a headline thread, to help everyone see it. I hope this was ok. I put a response there.

Here's my 2 pence on the article.

Wonka, well done. This a a great read. Thanks for sharing it.

The only fault with the article is the lame-ass conclusion. I guess the author was exhausted by that point. I submitted a couple of papers like that in school, I think!

In the final section "How Thailand's Bubble Economy Will Pop", after exhaustive analysis of not exactly easy to collect data and some fairly incisive points, he wraps up with a gaping waffle:

"Thailand’s bubble will most likely pop when China’s economic bubble pops."

C'mon! What a cop out. Give your prose some balls.

His wimp out continues with "and/or as global and local interest rates continue to rise, which are what caused the country’s credit and asset bubble in the first place."

What does that even mean? Global interest rates dropping (plus QE) encouraged the flood of money into Thailand. They are now rising. But the credit and asset bubbles were caused by low global interest rates. Further, local interest rates are falling, not rising. 2013 saw two rate cuts in Thailand - June and November - to the lowest in three years, and this year should see BOT make one more cut.

To be fair, what he was trying to say is that as QE tapering once again builds momentum, BOT may - at some point - have to raise rates to attract foreign capital. Indeed, IMO, a rate rise in late 2014 would not be a surprise.

Further, Thailand has lower inflation than other Asians. This means "real interest rates" - I'm about to nod off - had been rising. Other economies - India, Indonesia - have been raising rates to combat inflation and attract foreign funds, because US bond yields have been trending higher. (US bond yields rise as QE falls. Zzzzz.) To attract foreign capital away from "safe" US bonds, Thailand will have to raise rates, once the economy firms up. But anything higher than 3% (they had hit 5% briefly in 2006) will be quite a ways off: Thailand has a lot of excess capacity to use up before economic growth can kick in.

Ok. Now I'm sleeping.

Still, aside from blaming the Chinese gorilla - kind of like blaming McDonalds for the world's fat people: easy to do, but tough to link - I don't think he's made a case for how Thailand's Bubble Will Pop.

Anybody have any thoughts? How might Thailand's bubble pop?

Clearly the key will be something that brings consumer and public debt crashing in on itself. This occurred in Japan in the late 1980s, but the situation is different. Or is it? What triggers an asset class crash? What holds the key for the Thai economy's future? Or is all this talk of a bubble simply rubbish?

I've got my own guess on this. I'll add it in a later post.

I think the long term view here is worth noting:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

I hope I'm not taking too much liberty here, but we should all check out Wonka's above post. It's great reading. The post was tucked away in a separate thread. Some might have missed it.

It's a November 2013 piece that brings together a lot of handy data in a single place.

Thanks Wonka!

Not really related to my OP but ...

I have a broking account and they have gotten me to complete a Risk Profile, which is a fairly standard request ... the Broker in Australia requests this every couple of years for their file.

But ...

But they actually asked my political persuasion, and that of my Wife (if I had one).

Why, on Earth, they would need to know that is beyond me.

Sometimes the relaxed attitude to PC in Thailand has the opposite effect ...

Privates pending. That's funny. My privates are pending just about every morning I wake up. (Yuck! Sorry to gross us all out.)

I hope that didn't form a visual in anyone's mind.

Thanks for this Outlook. Was it done by a local broker, or possibly the Australian one? Does it give a 2014 SET forecast?

It's great that you had some cash in Thai stocks. I had some in a SET Index. It languished forever at 750 or so, didn't it. I had completely written it off. Then, after Lehman, it touched below 450, and I jumped in. I thought it would top up to about 750 again, and would have been happy with that. Then, it broke 900, then 1000. I was shocked. Then in 2012/2013 it jumped almost to 1600. What a ride. I really should have put a lot more in after Lehman. I just never really thought it would get much beyond the 750. Finally exited last year at about 1500.

My guess for this year would be definitely back to 800, at least.

Separately, I'm shocked on the political persuasion question. Seriously? What flake-out approved that questionnaire. Of course, I would be happy to share my own tilt with them: in general, I favor clean shirts. But there are times when I definitely see the value of dirty shirts.

Needless to say, my wife and I don't always agree on politics.