adn57

Here are the facts :

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 6 November 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were between +0.6^oC (Niño-3.4 and Niño-1+2) and +0.9^oC (Niño-3) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180^o-100^oW) were largely unchanged (Fig. 3) even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. 4). The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index continued to be negative, accompanied by mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig. 7) have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5^oC). If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

It's not just a national pastime in Thailand , but all of SE Asia , Indonesia , Malaysia , Micronesia etc etc ..

After living in Indo for 15 years .. 90% of these (only changing the language and religion references to my locality) ... apply exactly the same here ...

The usual suspect is part # 3 - the bridge + sleeve

http://www.reelschematic.com/schematics/Penn/Conventional/309.jpg

I've replaced many over the years in the Senator series of Penn's .... they do wear out ..

many folks are heavy handed , too excited maybe : )

they put outwards or inwards pressure pulling and/or pushing the reel handle when reeling .. this accelerates the problem of wearing out the bridge ..... the sleeve usually wears out before the shaft .. the sleeve is bronze and threaded ... hard to have one made at the local machine shop .

reeling motion should be a smooth rotational action no outward or inward pressure ...

the problem can be jerry-rigged temporarily with home made washers under the gear , it's a short term fix .....

From the west coast u.s. ... living in the tropics - Bali 15+ years - charter biz trolling , jigging , popping ..

before Indo , 10 years on Guam small boat - commercial - trolling , deep bottom

Learning a new area with no western charter skippers in the area .. not easy .. i did that here .. to become consistent ...

it took years, allot of fuel and using all the knowledge accumulated over a lifetime of hobby and 25 yrs. professional experience. ..

you might check out the yearly run of sailfish that happens in Rompin , Malaysia .. maybe they migrate into your area ?

Halo , Aaron here - adn57

Live on Bali for 15 yrs. , been fishing almost 50 yrs , .. run a small charter biz and sometimes recreational fishing here ...

I look forward to visiting Thailand for an extended period of time in the near future .. hope to wet a line and bend a rod during my stay ...

Thanx for making a spot for fishing in this comprehensive forum !

Use your depth sounder if you have one .. try live baiting with the squid you catch at night when they are fresh, send them to the depth you are marking fish at .. if there are any predators around you'll find out : )

If you don't have the electronics , try sending the squid down apx. 30 - 50 meter's ..

if there are squid around .. there's bound to be something that eat's them .. patience is required to learn new area's and technics .....

I catch YFT , small Swordfish at nite here where I live .. using this method ..

Salt water game fishing the tropics .. is not salmon fishing .. if you are trolling with repala's .. barracuda and spanish mac's are about what you can expect to catch ...

Tight lines and good luck ...