harkish

Funny to read these comments - gestapo, terror, abuse. Common on folks, this is all part of the political theater, or rather the chess game that is Thai politics. There is no fair process, no rules, just what you can get away with and how it impacts the next situation. Here, Thaksin and his minions have tried to block their opponents from throwing his team out, even if they do remove the PM. Sticking to the colors (and for those of you who will jump in and say 'the yellows are not the PDRC are not the PAD", ok, fine, go back to Zardoz and play in your reality), the reds are setting the stage for dragging the royal institution into the game. So when the CC or NACC (dominated by yellows) rule against Yingluck, they will also move to kick out the cabinet. Thaksin / reds will then appeal to the royal institution - and either win out or drive a wedge further between it and the red masses. Given that the yellows have determined they must get rid of Thaksin and Co, then they will almost certainly move against the cabinet as well, so this is just a strategic move in a long term game, attempting to create more division between Bangkok yellow elites and red poor folk. Simplistic but largely the case.

Wow! We didn’t hear that old cliché of “Bangkok Elite Vs Red poor Folk” for a long time. The latest fashion trend is to use the mantras “Judicial Coup” or ‘Respect my Vote”.

Simplistic, as I said, but pretty much the case. Sure, there are plenty of upcountry folk against the latest version of Thaksin's forces. Call them upcountry yellows. And there are plenty of Bangkok wealthy, or middle class, who are supporters of the red tide, majority rule, or whatever you want to call it. I loosely call them members of the reds. Behind both sides are elites battling over spoils. If that leads to a 'wow' - well, like I said, some people operate in a different reality.

Funny to have two articles so close together on the Thaivisa news page pointing in such different directions. One, that Bangkok Bank says the economy is going great, this other that things are really in the dumps. Which one should I believe... .hmmmmm....

Funny to take the Bush v Gore SC decision as an example - a case where the conservative majority went against their past jurisprudence and ideology of states rights to overturn a state's right to determine their choice for president - all so that they could put in place the president the Supreme Court conservative majority preferred. Ah, but I guess that should be the point of what we are seeing with the CC and NACC processes - one of them, to be determined through behind-closed-door discussions, will decide to kick out Yingluck, twisting things somehow so that they can also justify kicking out the rest of the cabinet, all so a new 'neutral' PM can be appointed.

Anyone who doesn't believe this is what will happen can, one month from now, point out to me how wrong I was.

Oh goodness, was he head of the group of retired prominent bureaucrats that proposed himself? No surprises here, and no support from the red side, I suspect. But they are probably betting that they don't need it, that support for Thaksin has dropped enough upcountry that the judicial coup option won't lead to much of a response. And they might be right. It will be interesting to see.

What else is he going to say? "we are going to treat her fair and square, and we will find her guilty"? Of course not - no admissions of bias but guilty she will be. And she probably is, but that is not why they are finding her guilty. They will find her guilty because that is the strategy the power elite of Bangkok have decided on, in this chess game where the next move is a judicial coup. But to be followed by what? That will be Thaksin's move. The game will continue.

And the chess game continues. So the Court can rule against her, and she has to leave, but what about the rest of the cabinet? They kick it out too, somehow? How do they fit the round peg of their goal - and by their, I group the opposition that makes up the Court, the rich and powerful Bangkokians, the PDRC, the DP, the military and others (all groups often overlapping) - of booting Thaksin and Cronies with square hole of the Constitution and the expectations of the upcountry folk? Should be interesting. I spend five minutes on this, and there are people on both sides going full time, with a deep understanding of Thai law, Thai acceptable practice, and who / what is in play. So I know better than to predict final outcomes. But you can be sure there are many moves to come in this game, till we know we have reached the next phase. Certainly not the end, as this game will be played for years and years to come, dividing and re-dividing the spoils of Thailand.

It is well that you make no predictions on the final outcome with all the misinformation you have.

I do not have a head full of misinformation and make no prediction. Just hope for a far better country than what the PTP and the red shirts have been giving us.

What misinformation is that in the above? Just curious what you find incorrect.

And the chess game continues. So the Court can rule against her, and she has to leave, but what about the rest of the cabinet? They kick it out too, somehow? How do they fit the round peg of their goal - and by their, I group the opposition that makes up the Court, the rich and powerful Bangkokians, the PDRC, the DP, the military and others (all groups often overlapping) - of booting Thaksin and Cronies with square hole of the Constitution and the expectations of the upcountry folk? Should be interesting. I spend five minutes on this, and there are people on both sides going full time, with a deep understanding of Thai law, Thai acceptable practice, and who / what is in play. So I know better than to predict final outcomes. But you can be sure there are many moves to come in this game, till we know we have reached the next phase. Certainly not the end, as this game will be played for years and years to come, dividing and re-dividing the spoils of Thailand.

"And then he led the whole meeting in a soulful rendition of Kumbaya, while raising the possibility of world peace through cold fusion energy".

Fat chance... this is a circular firing squad and they are all performing their roles. Expect a good few more years of conflict, as the roots of this have not been pulled, and they will just keep sprouting And those are not all about Thaksin, it is about what he feeds on, the feudalism and inequality, the changing access to information, the higher education of the masses, and the desire of the rich and powerful to remain both, no matter the cost. Plus a hearty dose of corruption and close mindedness endemic in Thai society.

OK, big economic problems. But the fact is, we are eating this planet alive. One aspect of that is population growth. If Thailand, Indonesia, China and, let's dream, India can get its growth rates down at that 1.3 children level per woman, in a few generations our population will well decrease to a supportable level. Sure, this creates some economic challenges - how do we pay for these oldies (ie. us). But we are resourceful, we will find a way.

So, just checking to see if I have it right .... ...

Anybody can lay siege to polling places for a legitimate election thereby stopping people from voting: the police do nothing and the courts say .."Oh wait, that wasn't a real election 'cos some polling booths were closed off !

The Democrats say .. I'm taking my bat n ball and not playing'

A madman decides he doesn't want elections and he should have sovereign power.

The courts think .. 'Hmmm yep ..that sounds about right.'

What a joke.

This is not a joke.

This is exactly how Thailand needs to do to get rid of the evil Thaksin, and his whole family, clan, friends, etc.

Certainly not a joke - but a pretty good summary of what has taken place over the last months. The elites here in the City of Angles would agree with you -- its the price of lancing the boil that is Thaksin. Drown the baby to save it, take Thailand down to keep our power. Democracy or at least the illusion of it is a slippery slope for Bangkok's oligarchs. Next thing you know, these upcountry farmers will start thinking they are good as city folk. And then where will it end - the maid eating dinner with the family? Demanding A/C and a sitdown toilet out in her room? The taxi driver not allowing us to cut in to the front in our lovely black Merc? Man, next you know, they would expect to turn the Royal Bangkok Sports Club into a public park!

The comments here are so funny - like this is a case about the constitution or justice or wrongdoing. Hey people, this is all about power politics and Thai backroom games. The yellows - or BKK elite or PDRC or Suthep's Crew or whatever we want to call them under the current iteration - control the EC, courts, NACC and military. The reds - or Thaksin's Boys or upcountry folk or serfs - have the numbers. Both fight over the media and public space. The yellows - and let's stick to colors for simplicity - have to decide how much of their power they can use without really upsetting the masses. Can they throw her out? Of course, whether she broke the law or not - that is not the question. What will result? Well that is the question, as it appears the protests / Bangkok mob haven't worked, and the military is unwilling to make a move and take the blame. So a judicial coup or whatever you want to call this process is going to happen. But you all can go back to arguing about the law, like that matters, and demonstrate your naivete.

Last time I checked the Yellows were a dead issue. they removed them selves from the political scene in their failed attempt to get Abhist to go to war with Cambodia. In fact their leader is in a Cambodian jail.

My big question is why do the red shirts continually try to blame it on a defunct section of the population when the truth is it is the grass roots people in the population who have brought the situation to the attention of the whole world and refuse to cover it up to make the PTP and their red shirts hired goons happy?

I do have one answer but I can not verify it.. Let the ear medicine flow. Not

As I mentioned, the bottles change, the wine stays the same. Yellows, PDRC, PAD, whatever. They are the same, fronted by one face or another. Same on the other side, they are just more consistent in terms of sticking with their color. Hired goons? Both have those, just try walking through Lumpini in a red jumper and you can prove that.

The comments here are so funny - like this is a case about the constitution or justice or wrongdoing. Hey people, this is all about power politics and Thai backroom games. The yellows - or BKK elite or PDRC or Suthep's Crew or whatever we want to call them under the current iteration - control the EC, courts, NACC and military. The reds - or Thaksin's Boys or upcountry folk or serfs - have the numbers. Both fight over the media and public space. The yellows - and let's stick to colors for simplicity - have to decide how much of their power they can use without really upsetting the masses. Can they throw her out? Of course, whether she broke the law or not - that is not the question. What will result? Well that is the question, as it appears the protests / Bangkok mob haven't worked, and the military is unwilling to make a move and take the blame. So a judicial coup or whatever you want to call this process is going to happen. But you all can go back to arguing about the law, like that matters, and demonstrate your naivete.

Some members in TV follow the blind emotional allegiances of their parties in their countries of origin as if there was an equivalency.

Thai politics are in a class that has nothing to do with any system in the Western World.

Patronage, hierarchy, lack of accountability and more.

Crime and punishment? Not in our lifetime.

Thainess.

Those in power move the wrongdoers to non-active posts because they expect like treatment when their time comes up.

Naivete the fuel of fools.

Its really just entertainment. We go to the movies, we know that Batman will beat the Joker in the end, we know that it is not real, but we still get excited by the events on the screen. This is kind of the same thing.

The picture seems to show only junior staff from CAPO making the announcement, suggesting they are not taking this too seriously.

Yes, this is just a side show off the main event. CAPO collecting evidence that the courts will follow? Ha! Not gonna happen, but all part of the Kabuki show going on, or maybe it is a shadow puppet theater, who is really moving things we can imagine but don't really see, entertaining but in the end only that, not really meaningful.

Funny use of the word 'neutral' in this article, placed as it should be in quotes. Neutrality is hard to find these days in Thailand. The courts are packed, the government too, and the Senate. The article fails to mention the fourth branch of govt here, the military, which has remained surprisingly neutral. The situation belongs in a vacuum, as neither side can win under any foreseeable path, government remaining in power or being thrown out by Suthep and Co. So eventually, and in the best interest of Thailand, the so-called reform is needed, but not in the way the Democrat Party elites would like. True reform is needed, eliminating the feudalist nature of society, increasing transparency, reducing corruption. I don't know how that can happen, but it is what needs to happen, to eliminate the power of Big Men, on both sides.

Yes, the EC sees an election further down the road. After they figure out a way to kick out the PTP, set up a rigged reform system, come up with a constitution that puts more direct appointments in place a la the current senate, and reduces the democratic nature of current government. THEN an election can be held, and amazingly the Democrat Party will win. And Bob's your uncle, easy beezy. Give it another week or two, the judicial process is in motion, chess pieces being moved. Of course, it won't be this simple, and let's see what the counter moves are, all of which points towards continuing unrest.

Wow, with Suthep's latest comments this thing just went from tiring to downright weird and worrying. The guy is talking about some sort of civilian dictatorship with him in the role of dictator. Do his supporters start to see a whiff of danger here, or are they so blinded by fear of the man who can't be named that they are willing to continue to back this nutter?

We can only hope they run out of money and stop funding this foolish scheme. How about pumping the money into public transport instead, thereby reducing the overload and growing traffic on the roads.

Game inside of Games

Thai power politics played out through the courts and government institutions. Who is appointed by who, who is yellow or whatever you call the Suthep crowd now, who is red? And btw, I wish they would just stick with the colors, it makes the differentiation clear. Yellows = Bangkok Elite, Rich and Military Heads. Reds = Upcountry, Majority, Poor and Thaksin. There, simple. This is what it boils down to. Justice? Ha! It is not about justice, for those of you naive enough to believe that in this system. It is about power, and who appoints who, who controls what. Yingluck will be kicked out, found guilty of something, because that is how it will work. And then the yellows will take control, but reds will respond. And eventually, someday, there will be an election, and the reds will come back, but under a new constitution that gives more to the yellows. And the reds will fight that, seek to change the constitution, whatever it is, and the battle for power will continue. This is not just in Thailand, it is the nature of man. But in well functioning societies the elites and the masses reach some sort of accord. Here, the sands are shifting, making governance difficult and no accord in sight, so the stability of the system is shaky. Perhaps eventually a greater balance will be found, but that will take years.

Here we go again, according to script... judicial coup justified if not by the rice scheme / NACC probe, then by the Thawil case decision. Found guilty, then forced to resign or impeached, enforced by the military and somehow, anyhow, a new government, a yellow government, put in place - for the 'reform' so loudly called for from Suthep's stages.

The acts of this play were written in the drawing rooms of big BKK houses and penthouses months ago, right down to the Songkran kickoff dates. The current constitution was a dramatic reduction in representational rights, the next will be more so - more appointments by 'respected individuals', less voter voice. Less upcountry, more Bangkok. And then the reds will come to town. This will continue and continue - until some balance is found. What will bring about that balance? Hard to say, we are dealing with centuries of a feudal society, elites running things the way they want, poor folks, serfs, doing their bidding - all being threatened by modernity, and concepts of equality of rights and voice. This is to some degree a zero sum game, one side wins while another loses - although continued conflict will mean less of an economic sum, a smaller pie to divvy up.

Elvis. Everyone has set that date as the real time for change.

Elvis? Is he involved in all this? I thought he was hanging out with Amelia Earhart, the crew of MH370 and the builders of Stonehenge somewhere off Bermuda. But yes, the exact dates of this dance have been set, probably known more or less by both sides for some time - and it is a chess match. So the yellows or whatever we call the BKK elite camp will make their move next, some form of kicking Yingluck out. Then Thaksin and Co will make their move, protests, takeovers, whatever it is. And so on.. .and the dance continues. To think this boils down to justice is just naive. It is the Thai power struggle, played out over the decades and centuries. Corruption? Sure, if you want to call it that, on all sides. Thai power games and wealth extraction and distribution according to local rules is probably a more accurate description.

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

That is not, and never has been, the function of a newspaper despite what they say to the contrary. Their functions are to sell advertising and earn revenue for the proprietor and to promote the proprietor's political and business interests. The Nation has a very clear political leaning, so it is not going to "call out" the Supreme Leader in waiting because they support him and his objectives.

Despite carefully managing the appearance of neutrality, the army has let slip they also support PRDC or at least their main objectives, but that revelation surprised nobody. It suits the Nation's political views to play up fears of violent confrontation and civil war because that helps make it more likely the army will intervene to bring about the result the Nation's proprietor supports.

This comment is dead on in terms of our local English language press - particularly with regard to the promotion of proprietor's political perspectives. Relying on The Nation or BKK Post as your main source of info for what the heck is going on in Thailand is really like Alice trying to figure out reality by studying the world through her looking glass. The Jabberwocky they speak in these papers is really all in some code, a code that leaves reality to the side. Both papers - and while I don't read Thai, I suspect the local language press is even less reality-based on any side - are highly tilted, with occasional and surprising exceptions. While I read the blogs and overseas views, talk to folks, and try to form my own vision of what is really going on, it is hard to know. So in the end, we move day to day, wondering and amazed at what happens next, in our Thai Wonderland.