Ichabod

Since no one has seen the abbot lately, he has probably already disappeared. Or been allowed to disappear.

To those who take comfort in the notion that filling out the form is "optional," may I point out that renewing your visa is also "optional."

Wherever this form originated it perfectly expresses the xenophobic military outlook. It might not stick this time, but the issue will not go away.

The goal this time around was always to solve the fundamental conflict of Thai politics by disenfranchising the majority of Thais who would re-elect Thaksin tomorrow given the chance. They made a mistake after the last coup in letting an elected government come to power again. The new solution is elections without democracy and real power in the hands of the military forever.

In a recent publication of an article by the late Benedict Anderson, a leading scholar of the political economy of SE Asia, he proposes a theory of the Thai political conflict that accounts for the otherwise surprising absence of ideology. He sees the source of the conflict in longstanding competition among the four leading ethnic Chinese groups that have immigrated into Thailand: the Hakka, including the Shinawatra clan, the Hokkien, including Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Hailamese, including Sondhi Limtongkul, and the Teochiuw who have had the upper hand since King Taksin. Although the influence of the Chinese diaspora is evident in Thailand, it is surprising as Anderson recounts, that Thai-Chinese politicians numbered 78% of the last elected Parliament although they represent only 14% of the population of Thailand.

A very interesting read.

https://newleftreview.org/II/97/benedict-anderson-riddles-of-yellow-and-red

An interesting article if TVF members haven't as yet read it!

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/01/31/is-the-thai-juntas-support-network-starting-to-fray/

A good assessment. As the economy continues to suffer, the business community will look for alternatives to the generals.

According to the BP this morning 'Porsche' has nothing to worry about unless she returns to Thailand. She has US citizenship via naturalisation and consequently a US Passport. One of the guarantors says she planned the entire episode.

Harvard will quietly tell her to repay the loans or lose her position and then she will pay up.

And the current regime has no sense of irony in the fact that they have ushered in a 'loser take all' system?

Anyway, no one ever said the system should be winner take all. Parliament is there to give all sides a voice.

They lack even a sense of shame, but that's been a foregone conclusion for a long time. When Meechai says no winner-take-all what he means is that the legitimate electoral wishes of the majority of the people will not be allowed to impinge in the slightest way upon the privileges of the powerful and their wannabe middle-class followers. It really couldn't be clearer. All of these various provisions are designed to institutionalize the coup powers of the military which was always their goal. Meechai did the same thing when he wrote the constitution for General Suchinda in 1992. He's an old hand at carrying water for the powerful elite of Thailand.

brave and noble

Very true. When the junta dragged Thanet Anantawong out of his hospital bed for daring to circulate online a graphic that outlined the nature of the corruption at Rajabhakti Park, Rangisman Rome spoke up and announced that the junta should arrest him and the rest of the New Democracy Movement because they had created the corruption map, rather than Thanet who merely circulated it!

Apparently, Rome has not been arrested.

The junta is weaker than it looks and indeed is even getting desperate. As they lose the support of the business class through gross mismanagement of the economy there will come a point when they are truly vulnerable despite appearances. That they will fail at every task is certain, because they are grossly incompetent.

With people like Rome and the others seeking to take the initiative they can succeed at pushing the junta back.

You're close. A transformer will only work with a changing voltage. AAA cells supply DC or a steady voltage. You could use the 2 AAA cells in series to give 3v to drive an oscillator circuit of some sort most likely feeding a high frequencey swithching transformer which would then charge a capacitor which on discharge would feed another transformer. You could easily achieve 50K in a small package with this type of cct.

But since the input voltage would be only 3 V. compared to 12 V for the standard Taser, at the same 50k V. output the amperage would then be much lower, would it not? Would it be enough to have the desired effect on human neurons? If so, why aren't all such devices 2 AAA instead of 8 AA?

It's the voltage, not the current which causes the muscles to contract. 30ma across the heart can kill you, the whole design philosophy behind a taser is high voltage low current. You design the cct to work with a given input voltage to achieve the desired output voltage, in general for a given cct increasing the input will increase the output to a point. Too much input V for the design and something will fail. The reason for using larger or more cells is to simplify the design and extend the working time before you exhaust the cells.

If it's the voltage then why does a Van de Graaf generator not paralyse the user? Is it because it is DC, not AC?

Complete fantasy. Genuine Tasers furnish 50,000 volts vs. 1.5 for AAA batteries. If you could apply the current from a AAA battery to your tongue you might just feel a tingle.

So where does the 50,000 volts come from in a genuine taser? Hint- "a 50,000 volt battery is not the correct answer"

A transformer to convert the output of 8 AA batteries to high voltage low amperage? Are there cheap transformers efficient enough to do the same for 2 AAA batteries? I'm doubting it.

You're close. A transformer will only work with a changing voltage. AAA cells supply DC or a steady voltage. You could use the 2 AAA cells in series to give 3v to drive an oscillator circuit of some sort most likely feeding a high frequencey swithching transformer which would then charge a capacitor which on discharge would feed another transformer. You could easily achieve 50K in a small package with this type of cct.

But since the input voltage would be only 3 V. compared to 12 V for the standard Taser, at the same 50k V. output the amperage would then be much lower, would it not? Would it be enough to have the desired effect on human neurons? If so, why aren't all such devices 2 AAA instead of 8 AA?

Complete fantasy. Genuine Tasers furnish 50,000 volts vs. 1.5 for AAA batteries. If you could apply the current from a AAA battery to your tongue you might just feel a tingle.

So where does the 50,000 volts come from in a genuine taser? Hint- "a 50,000 volt battery is not the correct answer"

A transformer to convert the output of 8 AA batteries to high voltage low amperage? Are there cheap transformers efficient enough to do the same for 2 AAA batteries? I'm doubting it.

Complete fantasy. Genuine Tasers furnish 50,000 volts vs. 1.5 for AAA batteries. If you could apply the current from a AAA battery to your tongue you might just feel a tingle.

The academics should do one or all of the following:

1. Assemble a constitutional convention and write a new, democratic Thai constitution. Such a draft might address issues of critical importance "overlooked" in the current draft such as corruption in the military, military interference in democratic processes, anti-coup provisions, guarantee of due process, independent judiciary (i.e. not appointed by the royalists), etc.

2. Appoint themselves the People's Review Board for Meechai's anti-democratic draft constitution and criticize each reactionary element as it's made public. The junta are surprisingly sensitive to criticism, to wit, notice how they didn't dare carry out arrests against the students protesting Rajabhakti corruption.

Elections will not be winner-take-all, but coups will still be.

Cruz is in real contention for the nomination.

Thus, as I see it, his Canuckification^TM problems are TWOFOLD.

First, the definition of naturalized citizen. Trump is playing his snarky games but there is a grain of truth in his suggestion that Cruz will eventually need a definitive ruling. There actually IS a grey area. Of course, there is no grey area as to his U.S. CITIZENSHIP, there really is one as to his eligibility to be president.

Secondly, the OPTICS. The FACT that Cruz waited so long in his life to renounce his CANUCK CONNECTION, not coincidentally done when he knew he was running for president, does not look good.

In his favor, it's Canada. Not threatening.

His US citizenship is very much in question. If his mother did not file the FS-240 form documenting with the State Department that she had met the residency requirements to transmit her US citizenship to her son, then he is not a US citizen since he never naturalized. If she did file the form then Cruz could end the discussion by producing it. Since he hasn't done so, it is unlikely that he was ever a US citizen.

There is nothing gray about the requirements in the Immigration and Naturalization Act. Cruz's compliance is not merely gray, but entirely opaque.

Here are the requirements from the US State Department for acquisition of US citizenship for someone born outside the US. The requirements are specified in the Immigration and Naturalization Act, not in the Constitution.

A child born abroad to one U.S. citizen parent and one alien parent acquires U.S. citizenship at birth under Section 301(g) of the INA provided the U.S. citizen parent was physically present in the United States or one of its outlying possessions for the time period required by the law applicable at the time of the child's birth. (For birth on or after November 14, 1986, a period of five years physical presence, two after the age of fourteen, is required. For birth between December 24, 1952 and November 13, 1986, a period of ten years, five after the age of fourteen, is required for physical presence in the United States or one of its outlying possessions to transmit U.S. citizenship to the child.) The U.S. citizen parent must be the genetic or the gestational parent and the legal parent of the child under local law at the time and place of the child’s birth to transmit U.S. citizenship.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal-considerations/us-citizenship-laws-policies/citizenship-child-born-abroad.html

So the question is was Cruz's mother, Eleanor Darragh, present in the US for 10 year of which 5 must be over the age of 14 prior to Cruz's birth. If she was, then she should have filed Consular Report of Birth Abroad, State Dept. form FS-240. Cruz has never produced the form which would settle the question. If the form FS-240 was indeed filed it seems unlikely that Cruz would not have produced it to settle the question. Therefore, it seems likely that the form was never filed.

If the form was not filed then Cruz is not only not a US citizen, but since he renounced his Canadian citizenship, he would be a stateless person. By voting and taking office as a US senator he has probably committed voting and election fraud. Unlike with the Obama birther movement, Cruz has a real problem establishing eligibility to run for office.

This issue will not go away as long as Cruz remains in the race. The further he gets the more important it will be to settle the matter.

Any generals among the accused?

If one of your parents is a US citizen, you are automatically eligible for US citizenship and are considered a US citizen.

But only if the US parent has lived in the US for 10 years prior to the birth and for which at least five of those years must be over the age of 14. His mother should have filed US State Department form FS-240 demonstrating that she met the conditions for her son to be a US citizen.

Where is the FS-240?

Since Cruz has never produced it, he is almost certainly not a citizen.

Some of this discussion appears to assume that the military takeover government is ineffectual at controlling corruption or indifferent to it. Nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is after the last coup corruption did not decrease, but increased, in Thailand. The first thing the present "government" did after seizing power was to put their cronies into positions of power and influence in the state-owned enterprises which constitute the real feed trough of corruption in Thailand. The very point of the junta is that the military should be the primary beneficiary of corruption. The talk is just blowing smoke in the eyes of the gullible.

Perhaps you could give some specific examples.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Thailand’s military junta is moving to extend its control over the nation’s powerful state-owned enterprises, a formidable economic sector that has been a crucial arena for Thailand’s power struggles in recent years.

The nation’s generals, who took power in a coup last month, have stopped short of an outright seizure of the nation’s 56 state-owned companies, which include Thai Airways International THAI.TH +0.64% PCL and oil-and-gas producer PTT PTT.TH -1.34% PCL. But they have put public pressure on the heads of these firms to resign, and many have begun to comply.

Voravidh Champeeratana, the chairman of Krung Thai Bank PCL, KTB.TH -3.33% stepped down on Monday, following the resignation over the weekend of PTT’s chairman. The heads of the Government Lottery Office and the Airports of Thailand AOT.TH -2.76% PCL also have resigned since the coup. So far, none have been replaced.

The state sector has long been a battleground in the clash between Thailand’s two competing political factions, which culminated in the army’s takeover last month.

There is a lot at stake: These firms have combined assets of $360 billion and they spend more annually on investment than the government does. Thailand’s listed public companies and their subsidiaries account for a fifth of the local stock-market capitalization.

Politicians have fought to control these companies, whose revenues are a source of financing for government projects. Analysts said it is common for administrations in Thailand, whether military or civilian, to put allies in charge either as a reward for loyalty or as a way to exert control over spending.

“If we’re talking about investment projects to boost the economy, state enterprises are more important than the government,” said Niphon Poapongsakorn, an economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute, a think tank.

Thailand’s military junta says its intention is to make state enterprises more efficient.

“If we have to make any change, we will find good people who can contribute to the country and put them to work,” Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong, the junta’s economic policy czar, said after the coup.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecom tycoon, moved many of his allies into state companies following his ascent to power in a popular vote in 2001. That upended decades in which Thailand’s traditional royalist elite, which has close ties to the military, kept tight control over government and the state sector.

Mr. Thaksin tried to privatize some state enterprises to boost liquidity and listings on Thailand’s stock exchange, and sold stakes to the public of some companies including PTT, Airports of Thailand PCL and telecommunications provider MCOT PCL. But the military deposed him in a 2006 coup, cutting short his privatization plans.

The struggle since then between Mr. Thaksin’s backers and Thailand’s establishment has created a revolving-door dynamic at state enterprises. Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, led her party to power in elections in 2011 and set about restoring control over the state sector, facilitating the appointment of allies to head PTT and MCOT.

A Thai police choir performed in Bangkok’s Lumpini Park on June 15. Zuma Press

In other sectors, the establishment was able to keep some influence in an uneasy balance with Ms. Yingluck’s allies. Most board positions are selected by company committees, typically a rubber stamp for the government’s choice, former directors say.

Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the military’s grab for power in May and heads its new ruling council, has sat on the board of TMB Bank PCL since before the coup. Mr. Prajin, the junta’s economic czar, has been on the board of Thai Airways from before the army’s seizure of power.

The Government Lottery Office, which runs the nation’s monthly state lottery, has had a number of bosses in recent years. The office made 2.7 billion baht ($83 million) net profit in 2012 on 61 billion baht in revenue, the latest available figures.

Much of the profits go to fund government programs. The office also can print tickets for special lotteries to raise additional funds for specific government projects.

Since the coup, the office’s former director-general, Attagrit Tharechat, who was appointed by Ms. Yingluck, has stepped down. Mr. Attagrit denied the junta had pressured him to resign.

“In order for the organization to move forward, I should open the door for the new administration,” he said.

Chaiwat Pasokpuckdee, another former director-general of the lottery under Mr. Thaksin, said most board members of state-owned companies are politically appointed and lack knowledge about operations.

Wanchai Surakul, director-general of the office under the establishment government of former Democrat Party prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, said it was normal for heads of state firms to resign when governments change to “make room for new people.”

The contract is effectively to sell a child, therefore unconscionable and unenforceable. A mother's claim has priority over all other claims.

Some of this discussion appears to assume that the military takeover government is ineffectual at controlling corruption or indifferent to it. Nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is after the last coup corruption did not decrease, but increased, in Thailand. The first thing the present "government" did after seizing power was to put their cronies into positions of power and influence in the state-owned enterprises which constitute the real feed trough of corruption in Thailand. The very point of the junta is that the military should be the primary beneficiary of corruption. The talk is just blowing smoke in the eyes of the gullible.

i am thinking TV is going to be forced to announce soon that bashing people in the Thai government in the news forum is off limits.

Exactly how much of TV is in Thailand? Will the junta be able to shut it down or only block it?

We have been concerned about our freedoms to discuss here for some time now, all that's changed is the level of paranoia.

I was wondering if all the debate we've been having was being ignored out of 'Thai arrogance' that we don't matter; and that perhaps the elites are confident their keeping Thai people ignorant and unable to use English contributed to us being overlooked; but on the other hand I've also wondered if the junta actually fear coming down on us here and - at least - up to this stage because it would rock all kinds of international boats (that don't have slaves on them).

I think we do not really matter for them.

Some grumpy old men (referring to an old forum thread) that post in English will not make them bat an eyelid: most of the Thai do not speak or read English anyway so imo we are just moving hot air around as far as they are concerned.

Surely some of the Junta and a lot of Bangkok people could read and understand those forums but the current struggle is pretty much Internal I think.

Foreigners comments and TVF comments would be to them like some of the pesky journalists asking questions: Mr P will make the face, throw a banana skin and a nice statement like "can get you arrested or executed" and move to real business...

Real business been who control the masses and how to silence any Thai voice that disagree with current agenda and situation.

While also trying to arrest and silence the other camp-faction as much as possible.

Prepare the future and the elections while holding a firm grip on both of them...

Too busy to bother with a few grumpy farang residents that just chat-grump between themselves: this doesn't affect the local's sentiments so this is insignificant I would say.

Also as you mentioned, they have enough criticisms already coming from other countries about what they do to their own people, if they started the witch hunt, they might hear a different song...

Let's hope

All true, but things could change. Some of the LM "offenses" for which people have been charged occured many years ago.

It would be helpful if someone were to build a ThaiVisa offshore somewhere.

The North-Koreanization of Thailand continues apace.

Of course, there was never going to be any real reform nor any reduction of corruption. That was just a rallying cry. They only change the pockets that receive the corruption. How could it be otherwise. The most corrupt organization in the country is the army, but the junta never mentioned them as a target for reform.

All of which is quite standard. The interesting development is that a yellow rag like the Nation and the other English paper is now starting to criticize the junta. When the business community turns against the generals as far too incompetent to manage the Thai economy, that's the beginning of the end for them. Given the junta's gross incompetence at handling the warnings about poor Thai airline safety practices, can anyone doubt that they will screw up the economy completely?

Why wasn't this hiring of people to do a proper job set in motion when the problem first reared its head months ago? Because the Thais thought they could fudge it.

Next up - the Thai fishing industry; with allegations of forced labour, slavery, trafficking and illegal and over-fishing, that should provide another ready example of why aspirations so often fall short of reality here.

It is a pity that, more often than not, the common people pay the price while the unmentionable organisations clean up.

The problems didn't just appear a few months ago unfortunately. They have been building up for years and all the previous governments just ignored it and swept it under the carpet.

This government was the unlucky one that caught it.

IMHO it really doesn't matter which government caught this problem (and for that matter the other problems you mention too) because I don't think a military, Thaksin, Democrat or coalition government will do any better or worse than the current lot.

Not true. The junta was served notice by the ICOA on March 20, 2015 of the impending risk of downgrading. Since that time the generals have done nothing to address the problem thereby endangering the tourism sector of the economy which is variously estimated to be between 6% and 10% of Thai GDP. They certainly could have hired their foreign experts in six months time if they had started then.

Sheer incompetence of the generals.