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Hakuna Matata

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Everything posted by Hakuna Matata

  1. What is his name on Thai Visa Forum (Aseannow)?
  2. 'Ukraine Will Be Eliminated' John Mearsheimer and Putin Advisor Discuss US-Russia Relations
  3. Is it common for a foreigner in Thailand to possess a a .38 caliber handgun?
  4. Isn't it high time to ban cannabis completely in Thailand? Enough is enough!
  5. I think there is more to it. I would not believe a word this Lithuanian is saying.
  6. Oh, those perky Russians once again in Thailand? Let us bash them Let us hold them accountable for everything bad on Earth. Slava Ukraine?
  7. Exit Russian bashing, enter Brit bashing. We have got a good opportunity. Don't miss it.
  8. Also, he may be a fugitive who has committed a serious crime in his home country, keeping now a low profile in Thailand. You never know the real reason for his long overstay!
  9. Also, he may be a fugitive who has committed a serious crime in his home country, keeping now a low profile in Thailand. You never know the real reason for his long overstay!
  10. 70% of those work permits are purchased through agents, Phuket being a hub of corruption, a mafia hub!
  11. No, they don't look like Russians, trust me. Probably, Brits once again!
  12. Oh, let's start Russian bashing, that's a good opportunity, isn't it?
  13. I don't think so. Eventually, everything will settle down and business will be as usual! It will take 1 year or so to stabilize. Yes, the prices will go up. But the increased government revenue will lead to redistribution of funds inside the US including increased wages and increased buying power of population. As a result, the living standard may be even higher than before. It will take 2-3 years to see the result.
  14. Yes, the time is on Putin's side now. Zelensky has no cards to play!
  15. Zelensky Warns Of IMMINENT Russian Offensive
  16. Only 14 days! 15 days is too much. Singapore gives only 7 days.
  17. Only 14 days! 15 days is too much. Singapore gives only 7 days.
  18. No, 14 days is adequate for most tourists! Singapore gives only 7 days.
  19. Further considerations on the significance of the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine agreement on a maritime cease-fire. The most important prompt for reconsidering the maritime cease-fire agreement lies in the terms set by the Russians for its implementation, namely a long list of the sanctions, financial and otherwise, relating to Russian farming, fishing and fertilizers which the U.S. must lift before the cease-fire comes into effect. Interestingly, The Financial Times actually took the time to examine the demanded sanctions relief and put out some highly relevant figures showing that the sanctions have not prevented the Russians from finding alternative export routes and other work-arounds to continue their export earnings from food and fertilizer products. Indeed, as they cite, “Russian fertilizer exports hit a record 40mn tons last year and are expected to increase by up to 5 per cent in 2025….” They omit to say that news of the maritime cease-fire instantly caused the prices on global fertilizer markets to fall by 4%. Nor do they tell us who has really suffered from the restrictions imposed on the Russian fertilizer industry: European and other world farmers and global consumers due to lower crop yields and higher food prices. Indeed, thanks to work-arounds the Russian remained all this time the world’s biggest grain exporters, but the work-arounds distorted global trade flows and added to prices everywhere. Nonetheless, true to their disposition to fault the Russians at every turn, for what they do and for what they do not do, the FT concludes that the real purpose of the Russian negotiators was not to free up trade in farm, fish and fertilizer products but to roll back Western sanctions generally, to create ‘holes in the western sanctions regime,’ rather than to boost exports. I freely admit that they have a point. And yet there is more to the story than they put out. They do not mention the requirement that Russia now be given sanction-free access to acquire agricultural machinery and equipment needed by the fishing and fertilizer industries. Over the past three years of sanctions, Russian producers of agricultural machinery such as harvesters, tractors and the like have stepped up their product assortment to fill gaps left by the departing U.S. and other Western manufacturers. Through parallel trading via third countries like Turkey, the Russians have procured spare parts for previously purchased Western equipment. But this has greatly complicated operations and led to production shortfalls versus what could have been achieved in normal times. Once implemented, the removal of sanctions surely will lead directly to a reentry into the Russian market of John Deere, FMC and other American manufacturers, resulting both in greater U.S. exports to Russia and greater efficiency for the Russian operators in the domain. Last night’s Vladimir Solovyov show added several further considerations on the subject worth repeating here. One is that the single biggest beneficiary of the removal of sanctions on Russian agricultural exports will be…China. After all, China alone accounts for half of all Russian export sales of grains. Supplies will henceforth be greater and prices, lower. The U.S. itself will also benefit, they say, because lower global food prices also mean lower food prices domestically in the USA, which is good for the Trump administration in its fight against inflation. Panelists on the show called attention to the greater credibility that the USA now has in the Kremlin following the conclusion of the agreement on a maritime cease-fire in its assumed role of honest broker or intermediary. The visuals of the talks in Riyadh suggest that U.S. negotiators were going back and forth between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in the same hotel to help them arrive at a deal. The reality, say the panelists, is that all negotiations were between the U.S. and Russian teams. They reached agreements and then the U.S. team took their decision to the Ukrainians and imposed it on them, like it or not. This, per the Russians, is the only way that an eventual peace treaty can be achieved. ***** Now let us look at one aspect of the Trump administration’s foreign policy initiatives that no one is talking about: their impact on U.S. military equipment sales abroad. The widely held assumption is that this administration like all of its predecessors is beholden to the military industrial complex for delivering votes of the Congressmen it controls on any given piece of legislation. Yet, the steps to end the war in Ukraine that we see the Trump Team pursuing in such haste, will turn off the spigot of weaponry to Kiev and work against the sales projections of the arms manufacturers. It is less obvious but more relevant that all of the uncertainty that Team Trump has caused and aggravated in Europe over its reliability as a defense shield works directly against the interests of U.S. arms manufacturers. We see this in the ongoing discussions in Germany about breaking their contract for purchase of the F-35 multipurpose jets. While Europeans are now allocating hundreds of billions of euros for procurement of defense equipment, the emphasis is on placing orders with European defense suppliers, not Americans. The Europeans have belatedly come to see that the U.S. can at any moment withhold its approval for use of its military hardware in any given planned military operation. Or it can cut off supplies of spare parts, thus rendering the expensive acquisitions useless. While the nuclear warheads stored in European bases turn these countries into targets for Russian attack, their use against Russia depends entirely on the mood of Washington at any given moment. These facts were always present, but the possibility of U.S, reneging on its defense obligations never seriously existed before the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.
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