mtraveler

Your glib comment really doesn't help move the conversation forward. Don't you want accurate data from your government? Isn't your side of this conversation always arguing that the numbers ARE accurate, and we should believe the numbers? How can we believe them, when there are clear discrepancies, as have been pointed out? If the patients were truly accounted for, the numbers would all add up. Basic Accounting 101.

There is a majority of the population that believe in the benefits of vaccines. And so, for them, there is no choice, other than taking a vaccine that is clearly inferior. So, your notion of "free to choose" does not exist in this case, when someone truly wants protection, but has NO CHOICE but to accept the inferior product offered them, with no other option. If you would like to opt out, please feel free. But don't foist your position on others who might want a good quality vaccine.

Yes, and included in that statistic were doses administered that precluded the Health Minister from attending a WHO meeting in Switzerland. Hmmmm.....

I'm not sure if anyone has noted this before, but on the graph for the 7 day rolling average of cases, it says: "Due to limited testing, the number of confirmed cases is lower than the true number of infections." To all those who call us doomsayers, perhaps we're not so "doomy" after all.

Same experience for me. Just around New Years (January 2020), traveling through Singapore I got sicker than I can ever remember. By the time I got back to Thailand a week later, and went to a hospital to get checked, I had red eyes with green coming out of them. Guessing that wasn't the flu.

I don't think anyone is saying anything negative about the vaccination program now, except for what you've already pointed out (inferior vaccine, and some missteps about not taking advantage of offers for high quality vaccine). So, yes, we agree. Nice job now, but missteps in the past, and though a very good job, still some continued avoidable missteps.. Am I supposed to be applauding the captain and crew of the Titanic for all their efforts as the ship sank, or am I allowed to consider how the ship got into that predicament in the first place, on account of blunders by those in charge? Do you think that's a fair analogy?

Those of us on the other side of the aisle believe just the opposite. We believe that those in charge find ways of producing numbers that suit their agenda. And we, on the other hand, study what scientists say, look at all the data, and deduce from the available facts what we consider to be the truth. Not counting all positive cases is just one example of something we see. And if that's not proof enough, wind the clock back to when the numbers of Covid cases in prisons was buried. Look at the lack of testing. Is it to save money, or to keep the numbers low? And the list goes on. I'm not sure how familiar you are with Thai culture, but none of this is surprising in a culture where saving face trumps facts. I'm not besmirching, just pointing out what is considered to be a recognized fact. As to the death numbers being low, first of all I'm really happy about that. But maybe that's why all of us on this side keep harping on things like testing, and getting vaccines, and getting high quality vaccines, and waiting to open the country until vaccination levels are safe for the locals, so they don't contract Covid when they rush out to earn money from tourists, who some of whom will inevitably have Covid. Secondly, regarding the low death numbers, I think there's been enough studies done regarding excess deaths. If you haven't read about it, I might suggest a current article in the NY Times, which analyzes excess deaths in countries throughout the world. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Thailand was in the middle of the pack comparatively, but the fact still remains that there have been excess deaths during this time of Covid. I'm not one to dismiss data that's carefully collected by scientists.

Not sure about him, but I'm positive the government said they would end using Sinovac. I'm also positive that there's no question that Sinovac is an inferior choice to the other options. I'm not saying that it's garbage, but I am saying that there's enough evidence that the other vaccines perform better. I understand your point that anything is better than nothing, but when I watch this government fumble the gift of quality vaccines from the US and Poland, and then reverse course on their plan not to continue using Sinovac, it causes me to wonder about the decision making here. I'll agree that what you say is right, if you're living in a vacuum. But that's not what's happening here. And I firmly believe there are better options available.

Quite likely? You really believe that there are 95% false positives?

Yes, it is good to see that. But that good news is tempered by the fact that the official number of new cases does not include 3848 rapid test positive tests. Unless there are more than 95% false positives in that statistic, REAL new cases exceeded recoveries.

And for the rest of the figures from Worldometer: Total cases (since the beginning)- #24 New Cases- #9 New Deaths - #16 Active Cases- #21 Serious Critical Cases- #7 Tests per million- #142 I think one big takeaway here is the number of cases reported, relative to tests per million. I don't think it's too difficult to extrapolate out to guess what the numbers might actually be if similar level of testing was done in Thailand compared to other countries. Most disturbing to me though is the fact that Thailand is so high up on the Serious Critical Cases statistic.

I consider myself a bit picky with tuna, and suffered the same problem when I first moved here 3 years ago. I'm now eating Ayam brand (tuna sandwich in Extra virgin olive oil). It's not solid white (I use it for sandwiches), but to me it tastes fine. Might not be good for you, but thought it worth the recommendation.

I think there's a nuanced explanation. It's hard to pin the blame on either the tourists or the locals. The fact is that opening up the country starts a snowball effect. Tourists coming means service people will start mobilizing to begin doing business. It's not important whether it is Covid emanating from tourists (foreigners) or from local Thai. It is the fact that the country opens up to tourism that opens this Pandora's box. Once the doors open, the locals will be looking for money from tourism. And whether it's Covid from foreigners (which I think more unlikely) or it's Covid from Thai people, it doesn't matter. The numbers will go up, because more people are interacting with each other. The point is that foreign tourists CAUSE the spread of Covid because their coming here causes the locals to increase their activities. So, in net effect, it IS the foreigners that are the cause. They're not the ones spreading the disease, but they are the ones causing the situation that leads to the spread of the disease. If they would all just wait until vaccination rates are higher, it will be better. It's why I've been saying that it's still a bit too soon to reopen, with the country on average vaccinated at under 45%, when it needs to be at 70% or higher.

"70% has been met in some of the key tourist areas", and has not in some of the other key tourist areas. And that's the rub. I've read what you've been writing for several months now, and you've been touting the fact that the country would be 70% vaccinated by some date, ranging between mid-December and late January. That changed based on vaccination rates, and that's fine. And you said that once the country reached that 70% magic number, it was ready to open. (I disagreed with that premise, inasmuch as Delta seems to need higher vaccination rates, but we'll leave that for another time.) And now you seem to have changed your position. Now you say... "well, it's close enough, and we can't wait anymore...". And for all that cheering for the yeoman's job that the country was doing to reach that 70% target, now you're saying "ehhh, close enough". What's to keep a tourist from traveling to a "non-key tourist area" when they visit? Is Chiang Mai a key tourist area? I think it is, and currently has had an increase in cases of Covid, and though I don't have figures, I'm sure that the area is far from 70% vaccinated. One final thought.... if the key areas in Thailand are more than 70% double vaccinated, and the nation as an average is 43.6% double vaccinated, then the rest of the country outside the key areas is at best 35% vaccinated. (I assume the key areas represent about 15 million people out of a population of 70 million people, since Bangkok is a major part of this 70% double-vaxxed statistic). Does that sound like a high enough vaccination rate to reopen?

Latest official Data from Worldometer (yesterday): New cases, 8th (8859) New Deaths- 16th (47) Active Cases- 20th (100,691) Serious Cases- 7th (2225) Tests per million- 142nd (which probably puts into question the statistic for new cases) I wonder, with less than 50% of the country fully vaccinated, if this is really the time to open up to tourism. I know it must be done as some point in the future, I'm just questioning if now is the right time. I thought the metric was 70%, which is still probably too low a percentage for Delta.

Perhaps they might want to direct their energies first to the many trucks and motorbikes that are spewing black smoke. It's heartbreaking to see. I'm sure that Thailand could reduce vehicular pollution dramatically by retiring these vehicles with some sort of subsidized trade-in plan, where owners of these dirt spewers could trade them in for something that produces a fraction of the pollution. And then, when that is taken care of, they can deal with the winter burning. After that, I'm happy to listen to this EV plan. (Yes, I believe in transitioning to electric cars, but I have this sneaking suspicion that someone has a profit motive here, and not just an altruistic motive.)

If you look at suicide rates the prior years, you'll see that suicide is unfortunately a major problem in Thailand. Even before Covid, rates were high. Yes, it's awful that the rates have gone up, and that people are taking their lives, but the number of suicides that can be associated with Covid is only a fraction of the deaths actually caused by the Covid virus. And those Covid virus deaths would have been much greater if there weren't limits put in place (masks, curfews, etc.), which I assume is what you are attributing to be the proximate cause of these deaths. On a side note, I appreciate reading what you write, but I wish I didn't feel when I read your posts that you are a cheerleader for the job that's been done by this government. The truth is they did too little too late. And it would be a good thing if you could acknowledge that at some point in your posts. Yes, there have been improvements, but there was a very long period of time when little was done, and it let the situation get worse. And frankly, it didn't have to be that way.

You do know what they say about "assuming", right? I think that's a giant leap of faith, believing that "most people die in the hospital where they are being treated for Covid". I think it's actually more than likely that people who are sick with Covid are not making their way to the hospital, and then dying at home... and they're not being counted as part of the Covid death statistic. That's just my opinion, but I think it makes more sense, inasmuch as many people really don't like the idea of ending up in a field hospital. It would make more sense that they'd rather just hope for the best, hope they don't have Covid, hope it passes, and just stay at home. And when they die, is it in the system's best interest to claim that their death was not from Covid. Again, just my opinion, but I think my opinion is buttressed by seeing what the authorities are doing to present lower daily cases (not counting certain tests). Let me be clear: I think that Thailand is finally doing a good job trying to play catch-up. But we can't ignore the fact that there were serious mis-steps in the beginning, and most of the problems could have been avoided with a little clear thinking and some proactive planning. And now that we're where we are, I think we need to just be patient until enough people are properly vaccinated (with a good vaccine) so that we can reopen for business. That means Astra, Moderna, Pfizer.... and that probably means the end of the year. I'm glad they've ratcheted up the vaccination program, but I'd like everyone to be patient until the proper percentages are reached. Then we can open up. And I'd like everyone to acknowledge the fact that the country really didn't do so well in the beginning.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Go to the spreadsheed, select any heading, and click on it. And it will reorder the countries based on that statistic.

This is your second posting today regarding Thailand's ranking in the world regarding Covid. I think the figures you chose do not fairly represent the situation at present. A better snapshot of where Thailand is today compared to other countries are depicted with the following statistics: New Cases- 29th New Deaths- 13th Active cases- 17th Serious/Critical- 7th The problem with the other statistics is that for the first year, Thailand was able to avoid trouble, and that skews the statistics. But since April, things have changed, and this snapshot gives a much fairer indication where we stand today.

If you open, and create an environment for tourism, you necessarily bring more Thais into contact with each other. So, it's not JUST the tourists that are at risk by opening up. You'll also be accelerating the spread by having more contact between the locals. I just don't understand why they can't just wait till the middle of December. Then, ostensibly, there will be 70% of the population double vaccinated. Not that 70% is ideal, especially since part of that 70% is double Sinovac, but it's a heck of a lot better than opening when only 20% of the population is double vaccinated, and some again only with Sinovac. I understand the economic peril for the Thai people, and I know it's awful, but I think opening too early will cause Thailand to get a black eye, remain on Red lists, discourage the return of tourists, and will ultimately delay the return the tourism sector back to helping those Thai who depend on it.

I think you are partially right, but there were other things happening that left Thailand flatfooted. And I think it was a combination of greed and hubris that put them in a bind. They thought they could both make a lot of money and save a lot of money by producing a vaccine themselves. And initially chose a single source for the vaccine that was probably enriching some people. And I think there were some that thought the cheapest way to gain herd immunity was to let the disease spread through the general population. I'd say each of these contributed to where we are today. The sign of good management is setting up contingency plans. Thinking what is the worst possible outcome, and having a plan if the worst does happen. That's what good companies do. And Government is, ultimately, a company. In this case, there was no contingency plan. I think vaccines would have been available earlier had they reached into their pocket and paid extra money, or if they had placed orders earlier (see "contingency plans"). And maybe they could have had an insurance policy by joining Covax. Both to access vaccines in the event they needed them, and as a way to offload extra vaccine inventory if in fact they didn't need it until a later date. Can you think of a good reason NOT to join Covax?

Everything you post here is true. But I get the sense that you post these things with great pride in the way the situation has been handled. What is getting lost by your praise is the way things were handled in the beginning. If you can acknowledge that Thailand waited too long to start vaccinating, I'm happy to agree with you that things are going much better now. While the world started vaccinating people in the end of 2020, Thailand sat on her hands. At the end of March, only 180,000 people had been vaccinated. And by the end of April, it was only 1,500,000. And 3,700,000 at the end of May. And that's total vaccinations, of which just a handful of people were double-vaccinated. And I'm guessing most of the vaccine back then was Sinovac. Had Thailand not made so many false steps in the beginning, where would we be now? Well, if Thailand had averaged 400,000 vaccinations per day since February, 84,000,000 shots would have been given, and I'd estimate that would mean more than 50% of the population would have been double vaccinated. And had Thailand been giving out shots for 7 months at the current rate of 500,000, today the country would be 70% double vaccinated. Having only 10% of the population double vaccinated now has caused a lot of problems. More people getting sick than necessary. More people getting more sick than they would have, had they been double-vaccinated. And more people dying than would have been the case, had vaccination roll-out been better, earlier. So, to be cheering about getting to 70% by January (4-5 months late, according to my math) , seems a bit disingenuous. Yes, they're doing a good job making up for the mess they created to begin with. But let's acknowledge both parts. And with that said, it's still not enough, inasmuch as the claim is that you now need 85% double vaccinated with Delta. We'd be much closer to that benchmark had the vaccination program started at the right time, with the right amount of vaccines available to administer. And we'd absolutely be able to open the country for tourism, put an end to the economic misery experienced by many today, and not be on any red lists. Can we agree on that?

Nah. They don’t even count the actual COVID cases as real cases. So they’re certainly not going to classify this one as COVID.

I am able to do 4 of those 5 things, and really wish I could do #5.