mtraveler

1- Because those that work with the prisoners return to society when they're done working, and can spread Covid if they contract it from a prisoner. 2- Because, maybe, they're human beings????

I think that's really disingenuous saying that we don't appreciate the efforts of the nurses and volunteers. We do appreciate the efforts they make, and also the risks they take trying to protect the country from Covid. What we're actually commenting on is the less-than-stellar job of getting vaccinations to the people by the government. Yes, right now a lot of people are getting vaccinated, but the rollout was far from exemplary. A day late and a Baht short. Would you agree that less than 9% of the population fully vaccinated at this point doesn't merit praise? And the fact that a good portion of that group is double vaccinated with Sinovac makes it even less so, correct? And the whole procurement process, and the decision to not join Covax has added to thie problem. I personally don't believe it had to be like this. Please don't paint us like that. It's not about the nurses or doctors.

You might want to look at the US Stock market and how it reacted to the peak at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021, and the latest rise in Covid figures. Both times the market continued to move upwards. Unfortunately there's no correlation between the two.

Those are some pretty big "ifs". "If the supply keeps up, if we can get more vaccines"..... well, of course it will be great. But what if they can't?

I asked this question a few days ago and got a few bewildered reactions. I'll try to show the math again in a different way. So far, Thailand has received 31 million doses. They have given over 27 million shots, leaving less than 4 million shots left in inventory (31 million - 27 million = 4 million). The claim is that 7.2 million more doses are coming shortly. That makes about 11 million doses available to be given (4 million plus 7 million = 11 million) . All the other vaccines are listed as coming in the 4th quarter, as I understand. So, 11 million doses will be used up in 22 days (11 million / 500,000 per day= 22 days). That's September 13. So, what happens then, when there are no vaccines left to give to people? Unless there's another shipment coming in September, Thailand runs out. Until at least the beginning of October. So, at least an 18 day gap. One other point. I think it's great that vaccinations are ramping up. And it's great to know that when people are double-jabbed, their chance of death drops to very low levels, which makes things much better. Lost in this, however, is the fact that with only 70% double vaccinated, Delta will still continue to spread rapidly, and there will be some who will contract the disease and be left with "long Covid" which might affect them for life. And the 30% unvaccinated are still at high risk. So, even with the good news, there's still a long road to travel till things are really better. I think that point in time is much further out than January.

How are 150,000 doses equal to a 3 day supply? That's only 50,000 per day.

So, if my math is correct, and Thailand is trying to vaccinate 500,000 people per day, and we assume that the 7.2 million doses of AZ are to arrive before the current inventory is depleted: That means that in 22 days, at 500,000 per day, there will be no vaccine available until the "4th quarter". 22 days from now is September 12. October 1 is the beginning of the 4th quarter. So, my math says there will be no vaccine for at least 20 days, and that's if supplies arrive October 1. Most likely, it will be longer than that. 4th quarter is a very loose term (spoken by someone waiting for his Moderna in the "4th quarter".

Does anyone know the schedule for upcoming deliveries for vaccines to Thailand? I'm just wondering whether there might be a supply-side bottleneck that will slow down vaccinations. Also, if there is this data, which vaccines are they? If I understand right, Thailand has received about 31 million doses, and as of today has administered about 27 million. That means there's about 8 days left of vaccine, at a 500,000 per day vaccination level. Just wondering what's due to arrive, and when (and which vaccine). Thanks in advance.

I'm not sure what you mean. Everything I wrote is a fact. Prisoner statistics are separated. Released is not the same as recovered. Antigen tests not counted. Please tell me what facts I am missing.

I think back pain is not communicable, though I'm not a doctor. And I think the point is that calling released people recovered before they are fully recovered inflates the numbers to make things look better. Of course, they will eventually be recovered, but counting this way lets them shift the numbers to appear better.

I would like to second what Dinsdale posted. "Release" is not the same thing as "recovered". Once again, in my opinion, another sleight-of-hand with the statistics. Call those who have been released "recovered", and don't count those with positive antigen tests. Separate those in the prison system. What else am I missing?

Whether you think the numbers are improving or not, and whether you think that 70% of the population will have received double doses of vaccine by February, the unfortunate truth is it's probably not enough. Israel today is a cautionary tale. I read today (NY Times) that even though 60% of the population is double vaccinated (and they only vaccinate with either Pfizer or Moderna), they are now seeing a 4th wave of Covid. The claim is that it's a combination of the Delta variant, and the fact that the vaccinations people received months ago have lost their effectiveness over time. I think these facts should lead us to expect that even when we reach 70%, there will not be sufficient protection to end the spread of the disease. I've read we need to reach 85% to control Delta, and I would assume that even then, it's going to take a lot longer to get this under control. For those who think I'm just trying to be negative, I'm in the same boat as everyone else. I want the country to reopen so I can get my life back. I want to see the economy get back on track, and those who are suffering with no money or food to get their jobs back too. But the realist in me thinks the road ahead is still long. And I really believe that the numbers showing a "peak" are manipulated, by minimizing testing, and by not including some of the testing in the total. Adjust for those two factors, and I believe you would see that no peak has been reached.

Slightly off topic, but I'd like to ask the statisticians here if they can help compile the following: 1- Total actual vaccines received by Thailand. (Not committed, ordered, expected.... actual deliveries that have reached Thailand). 2- A breakdown of those vaccines (Sino, Pfizer, Astra, etc.). 3- The number of vaccines given thus far (I know that's here, but it would be nice to have it all together). I'd be interested to see how all the numbers add up and compare. One additional thing: Maybe it's here and I'm missing it, but if every day a list of Covid cases by province could be posted, that would be helpful.

I'm not sure where you are getting this "amber group" data. I just went to the CDC website, and Thailand is in the top (worst) category for travel, the red category. Their recommendation for this category is "avoid travel to these countries". (So is the UK, by the way, just to be fair.) Can you tell me where this amber rating is from?