Selatan

48 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Typically countries are invaded for their resources, are you suggesting that some neighbor might invade Thailand for its rice and shrimp? 

 

Glad that they do produce some natural gas but is it enough to prompt an invasion by other than a desperado like China? If China invades all bets are off, a few jets are not going to help. Who else is the threat in this region, come on please give us your dissertation. 

 

 

Please read some history books, will you? China had saved Thailand's ass twice. First time was after the fall of the Ayutthaya Kingdom. China attacked Burma from the North which forced the invading Burmese army to retreat from Siam. The second time was during Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia, which was putting Thailand at risk. China attacked Vietnam from the North which forced some Vietnamese forces to pull back from Cambodia. 

Both Myanmar and Vietnam had been at war with Thailand many times in the past. China? Never.

7 hours ago, Srikcir said:

That would require China to lend more money to Thailand as it financed 100%. But China's domestic economy is suffering too. Thus, the pressure to vampire the project to begin producing revenue and paying China principle and interest on its loan.

Thailand did not borrow any money from China for this project. That's probably the reason why it is progressing at a snail's pace.

9 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Was in Laos for several months last year and all the people talk about is the debt of the railway and how it has hurt the country. Although all the knock off products from China were stacked high in all the stores. And cheap as chips. That whole SE Asia corridor is one huge mess. 

Laos is stuck in a poverty trap since forever and this railway is a way out of this trap but it takes time. At the moment, most of the goods moving up and down this railroad are either Chinese or Thai goods because Laos has nothing much to sell to China. Because Laos was land-locked, its people mostly practiced subsistence agriculture. What it needs are foreign entrepreneurs and investors.

4 hours ago, Emdog said:

The US Civil war started due to the confederate states firing on Fort Sumter: "they started it" which solved the problem the union faced of "what do we do about it?". A similar problem occurred after Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor: do we declare war only on Japan? Hitler solved that by declaring war on USA.

Anyone who thinks Taiwan would peacefully slip into CCP is nuts. They've had their experiences with dictators, and don't want to go down that path again. Would probably agree to reunification IF mainland agreed to be under Taiwanese goverence.

The Confederates were allowed to secede or not? That was the question. Not who fired the first shot. History is full of false flag operations and misunderstandings. The Marco Polo Bridge Incident marks the point of the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War. If Japan was not intending to conquer China, that incident would have been a minor issue, but it was used to justify a full-scale war with China. The same with the Fort Sumter shooting - it's just one bloody excuse. Ditto the Gulf of Tonkin incident and the Vietnam War.

It's not up to Taiwan to agree or not. Taiwan has an even bigger fertility problem than on the mainland. Its barracks are emptying out. It just doesn't have enough men to defend the island in the future.

Also, more and more sectors of Taiwan's economy have been lost to the mainland. Semiconductors is next. And no, China is not going to invade Taiwan to seize the TSMC factories, contrary to popular Western opinion. All China needs to do is wait, until Taiwan's economy goes down the drain, because it will, due to Taiwan's very low fertility rate and ageing population.

23 hours ago, placeholder said:

What you failed to mention is that a proposed bill that addressed this issue was opposed by China.

 

"Before 1997, the British colonial government introduced the Crimes (Amendment)(No.2) Bill 1996 in an attempt to concretise the concepts of "subversion" and "secession" by confining them to actual violent conduct but of no avail. The bill was voted down in the elected Legislative Council of Hong Kong amid opposition from Beijing and thus left a vacuum in the present legislation.^[6]"

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law_Article_23#cite_note-6}

What was the reason Beijing opposed that 1996 amendment? So that the LegCo may be given the opportunity to legislate the laws on its own after the 1997 handover?

On 12/24/2023 at 4:23 PM, spidermike007 said:

Completely wrong. Many are predicting China's birthrate to fall to half of what it is now, within 40 short years. Many simply refuse to bring kids into today's world, or one at most. Very smart. 

Who are these "many" that you are referring to? So-called "China experts" from the West? Didn't you notice that so many predictions about China have been wrong in the past? Look at how desperate the US is in trying to contain the rise of China. How come? Because their "China experts" have mostly been wrong in their predictions.

One thing I noticed about China is that their government is pretty good at solving problems. Air pollution problems? Huge improvement in their cities already. Poverty problems? Extreme poverty mostly gone. 

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I've seen some recent studies that have China's population dropping to 650 million by the year 2060, multiple predictions also have shown Thailand's population to drop to 35 million within that same period. The people are just getting smart and many are deciding not to have children, or to have one child at the most.

 

This is not a great time to be bringing children into the world, and people are wising up. I don't think they're going to be able to reverse that trend. And it's a good thing overall, though some pain will be felt, no doubt. World population needs to drop. 

 

If you look at the curves birth rates are falling all over the world, except in Africa, the forlorn continent. Falling in China, Thailand, Japan, etc. Some are predicting China's population to fall to 650 million within 50 years, the crisis is that bad. I don't call it a crisis. I think it's a huge blessing. 

 

We report on China whose birth rate in the last year has fallen to the lowest level on record while American research shows more adults who do not already have children are saying they are unlikely to ever have them. Hooray!!! 

 

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-51/20220121-global-decline-in-birth-rates-should-we-worry

 

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.

 

Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.

 

They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.

 

Hooray!!! 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

 

 

Factories in China nowadays are full of robots. China is a producer of industrial robots. And China is a leader in A.I. China produces millions of STEM graduates each year. Only countries that produce too few STEM graduates, such as Thailand, should worry about a falling birth rate because those countries would have a harder time automating their farms, factories and offices.

A lower population may be a good thing. Less demand on finite natural resources.

What would happen to Europe? The Muslims would become the majority.

How about the US? The Blacks and the Latinos would become the majority.

How about China? The Han Chinese would still be the overwhelming majority.

12 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

 

Hahahaha... Great conspiracy story! I had to laugh that hard that I spilled some of my morning coffee. I bet that you've never even been to Hong Kong in your life...

 

As you love the CCP so much, when will you move to Beijing to work at the propaganda ministry there?

The first time I visited Hong Kong and immediately hated that place because of the very rude people there. When I crossed over to Shenzhen and got shocked with what I saw, so I knew that Hong Kong was a goner. I was thinking that those stuck-ups in Hong Kong would never accept that they have become nobodies in China already.

On 12/23/2023 at 10:52 AM, Henryford said:

There will be big brown envelopes from China to build this to avoid the Malacca chokepoint.

I don't think China is that interested. It has been shipping goods via rail to Europe for a few years now. Look at the current shipping crisis in the Red Sea. The rail service to Europe has become even higher in demand.

China-Europe Railway Express stabilizes global supply chains amid security concerns in Red Sea

Quote

The China-Europe Railway Express operated a total of 16,145 trains in the first 11 months of this year, up 7 percent year-on-year. A total of 1.75 million 20-foot equivalent containers of goods were carried, up 19 percent year-on-year, according to China State Railway Group Co.

The China-Europe Railway Express services reach 217 cities across 25 European nations, according to the company.

7 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

  

However, Taiwan is almost as little a part of that glorious history as the "Nine Dash Line"... Statistically, more and more Taiwanese see themselves as just that, rather than being 'Chinese'. And after what happened in Hong Kong over the past 10-15 years, I very much doubt that the Taiwanese are eager to join China, at least not as long as the CCP is in power.

 

You could also argue that Ukraine is part of Russia's long history of a 'unitary state', which also has nothing to do with the realities of the 21st century...

Originally, the "Nine Dash Line" was called the "Eleven Dash Line". The Eleven Dash Line was made by the Republic of China (ROC) aka Taiwan today back in 1947, before the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. If the PRC claims itself as the legitimate government of the whole of China, then it has no choice but to inherit the Eleven Dash Line claim that the ROC had made, 2 years earlier. 

What exactly did China did to Hong Kong before the series of protests and later rioting? Nothing. It did not interfere in the running of Hong Kong until things get out of hand by imposing the National Security Laws. Mind you, under Hong Kong's mini constitution, the Basic Law, Hong Kong was required under Article 23 to enact a national security law on its own but it failed to do so because its weak politicians easily succumb to protests. The failure to enact a national security law had allowed foreign forces to make use of gullible youths to cause trouble in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Basic Law Article 23

The former Soviet Union was a federation, not a unitary state. Russia itself, is a federation, so if the Donbas region of Ukraine wants to join it, are they allowed to?

2 hours ago, MarkyM3 said:

If they do choose freely they can forget about free choice thereafter. It will be a case of turkeys voting for Christmas. Look at what the National Security Law has done to Hong Kong.

 

Here in the UK, we've seen people moving here from HK who have British Overseas Passports (i.e. born before 1997 handover). Many had good careers but were willing to take low grade jobs just to get away from HK. Sad stuff. 

I'm a Cantonese speaking Chinese Malaysian. If you are not an ethnic Chinese like me, I don't think you can understand the mentality of these Hongkies (we called them that) that "fled" to the UK. 

If you really want to understand these people, read the following article written by someone who I think is a Westerner:

Hong Kong Riots Have Nothing to Do With Human Rights, Everything to Do With HK’s Superiority Complex

Quote

The reason rule from Beijing is so distasteful, is not that it's especially oppressive, but that it's rule by perceived social inferiors

I know this as a fact because Hongkies look down on all other ethnic Chinese from anywhere, whether from the Mainland or from Southeast Asia.

3 hours ago, heybruce said:

"The people of Taiwan are Chinese and when it benefits them to go with China they will go."

 

I don't know anyone who has any problem with that outcome, if and when it happens.  Provided Taiwan is allowed to choose freely.

I'm not from the US, but in Malaysia, we did study a bit of American history.

I don't remember the Confederate States were allowed to secede peacefully from the United States in the American Civil War. And the United States is a federation. But China was never a federation. China has been a unitary state for thousands of years.

Malaysia is seeing a surge in China tourists recently, not sure if it was due to the new visa-free policy or if the tourists were trying to escape winter.

46 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I think we don't have a clear economic picture of China at the moment.

Statistics about youth unemployment are now forbidden. It showed it exploded before it got forbidden.

All those factories moving to India or Vietnam must have an important impact. The possibility of a potential war in Taiwan is something businesses have to get in mind before investing.

I am very doubtful China still has a 5% economic growth rate. They must be near the recession line IMO.

Youth unemployment figures can be misleading, especially if the overall unemployment rate in China is 5%. College enrolment in China surged from 35% in 2017 to 65% in 2023. Should we count those who are studying as unemployed? At what cut-off age that we should count those youths to be unemployed? 23? What if they continue to do their masters degrees or PhDs? If there is a difficulty in getting an accurate picture, might as well get rid of it, instead of presenting a misleading picture.

Many factories that have moved to Vietnam from China are owned by Chinese businesses. And many of them have moved long before the start of the trade war by Trump because labour costs in China were no longer low. But these factories still have to import lots of raw materials and parts from factories in China, which are now more and more automated.

The West has always been doubtful of China numbers. That's why they get a rude shock when they visit China cities. Western "China experts" have been predicting the collapse of China for decades. I think they may get a better hit if they start predicting when the West would collapse.

On 12/9/2023 at 12:25 PM, Henryford said:

Who would want to travel to China.

Malaysian visitors highest in China after 15-day visa-free travel kicks in

Can't wait to visit China again, next year.

With a Muslim separatist problem in the south, not easy for Thailand to negotiate for a visa-free status with China.

Malaysians like me are luckier:

From Dec. 1, citizens of five European countries and Malaysia can enter China without a visa

18 minutes ago, Lemsta69 said:

 

The place would be a nightmare without Chinese Malaysians.

 

One thing I learnt from travelling up the peninsular East Coast is never visit a town in Malaysia that doesn't have a Chinese restaurant.

 

I stayed in such a place many moons ago for one night and was in bed by 9pm. Woke at 5am, got the first bus out of there and never looked back! 😹

The Chinese (25% of the population) contribute more in taxes than the Malays (65% of the population). It's economic suicide to chase out the Chinese, who dominate in business. That happened to Burma (now Myanmar). Burma used to be the richest country in Southeast Asia. After the British left, the Burmese forced its Chinese population to leave by nationalising their businesses. It turned the country into the poorest in Southeast Asia. 

Chinese Malaysians, generally do not visit those East Coast states. Too backward and too many restrictions, very difficult to do business.

I can say that almost all the towns and cities in Malaysia were founded by the Chinese. Even in the predominant Malay towns or villages, the commercial center is usually the Chinese-populated area.

On 11/30/2023 at 2:29 PM, klauskunkel said:

The Malaysian government allows their Muslim citizens to visit Hat Yai daily, three guesses what their main activities are...

Malaysian here. Most Chinese Malaysians go over to Hat Yai for shopping and dining. Most Malay Malaysians (Muslims) too go over to Hat Yai for shopping and dining. Kelantan Malays are more likely to visit Sungai Kolok instead of Hat Yai because of the distance.

Of course, some Malays do go over to Thailand for things that they have been forbidden from, but the Chinese do not have those restrictions, so there are nightclubs, bars, etc. in the 11 states not ruled by the Islamic Party, which is in control of 3 states (Kelantan, Trengganu and Kedah).

Chinese Malaysians have other more exciting entertainment options which you cannot get in Thailand: Yes, Malaysia is not exactly an Islamic country.

Here's another story from Malaysia. Location of abduction: Thailand. Location of scam operation: Myanmar.

Parents Bring Home 23-Year-Old's Ashes Who Died After He Was Scammed & Abused In Myanmar

The long porous border with Myanmar presents a huge challenge to the Thai authorities in preventing the cross border trafficking of humans.

Not difficult to search for the movie for viewing online. It has English subtitles. Can learn something from the movie.

1 hour ago, UbonEagle said:

What a joke

the Chinese are likely one of the most involved groups in all the illegal activities mentioned, esp call centre scams

Have you watched the movie? I have. Of course the scammers were Chinese. Nothing in the movie portrayed other races as the scammers.

Was Thailand mentioned in the movie? No. But if you have watched the movie, you too would most likely conclude that the abduction happened in Bangkok.

Where was the location of the scam operation? No country was mentioned. But most would conclude that it was somewhere in Myanmar.

Is the threat of being abducted in Thailand real?  Here is a story from our Malaysian newspaper:

Kidnapped in Thailand: When 'friends' sell you to human trafficking syndicates

20 minutes ago, IndomitableSpirit said:

I'm currently in Manila, and every day I see busload of Chinese tourists here. They seem polite and just enjoying their time, so despite of China and Philippines being frenemies...

China's economy crashing idea is just nonsense - China tourists are staying away from Thailand because of the fear of getting kidnapped by cyber-scammers operating in Myanmar and Cambodia. The Siam Paragon shooting just gave them an additional reason to avoid Thailand.

Let's see if Malaysia has a better luck in getting more tourists from China:

Malaysians to get 15-day visa-free travel to China; to reciprocate with 30-day visa-free travel

China announces visa-free travel for five European countries and Malaysia

9 hours ago, HarrySeaman said:

Not really.  Except for the new track for the high speed rail it is all narrow gauge track.  Because of this when traveling by train between Thailand and Malaysia you have to get off the train with your luggage, cross the border on foot, and then board a different train in the other country. 

 

A good example is the smooth running luxury Eastern & Oriental Express train from Kuala Lumpur railway station (Salak Selatan) to Thailand.  Once you cross into Thailand you are back to outdated railway cars, terrible tracks, and multiple stops along the way to Bangkok.

I think the reason why you have to get off Malaysian trains at Padang Besar is because the tracks in Thailand are not electrified, not because they are of a different gauge. The existing tracks between Kuala Lumpur and Padang Besar are of meter gauge, same like in Thailand. Apart from using electricity, the line from Kuala Lumpur to Padang Besar is a double-track one, so there is less need for trains to stop often to let other trains pass.

The double-tracking project in Malaysia also eliminated all level crossings, so trains crashing into cars have long become a thing of the past.

The new East Coast Rail Link from Kota Bharu to Kuala Lumpur that is currently being built is of standard gauge.