Nonthaburi Boy

On 5/20/2021 at 6:37 PM, samtam said:

 Same here. I never received any email. When I called the main number and pressed x for covid registration, it stated that this was now closed. So I presume they have many applicants, but no vaccine.

None of these sources have any vaccine and I am pretty sure it is all guesswork as to when they will have and when and how the government will deal them into the vaccination game. It is still 'promising' that they appear more hopeful of getting into the game earlier though and worth a punt if you want best early chance of a high-priced mRNA vaccine. Just my own guesswork!

It seems these hospitals expect to have vaccines available 2 months earlier than they previously guesstimated. Samitivej are offering similar now - you can sign up at customer service, although they wanted a social security card or work permit. Is that the case at Bumrungrad? No appointments given but it may just be that Samitivej are a bit more conservative and careful than Bumrungrad, which has been my experience. Samitivej also probably has a much lower capacity for doing mass vaccinations safely though due to space restrictions and the building layout - unless they can use the Japanese wing across the street.

Still my longshot option of the three, but it's kind of relaxing* to suddenly be signed up through three schemes (my work has one too now, after a false start - which I now see was because our partner hospital was being persuaded by the government to host the wider foreigner rollout)  after having nothing and no real prospects only two weeks ago. 

* I choose to ignore for now the knowledge that all vaccines are coming through the same source and there appears to be great uncertainty about supplies through that source - the AA serenity prayer needs to be applied here I think. 

1 minute ago, atpeace said:

Not a dig.  Good explanation but don't understand the second paragraph.  No big deal but road deaths were around 6k in 2020 compared to around 100 covid deaths.  I assume it will be much closer in 2021 (2k vs 6k, who knows)

Damn, you caught me!  My conclusion is pretty much hogwash. Wish I was doing this over a cold beer so you were less sharp.

Per week over the last couple of weeks maybe… obviously over the year or even any calendar quarter it doesn’t hold any water at all yet… and yes, I am (reasonably but naughtily) assuming an increase, or at least no slowdown, in covid death rate and that the slump in road deaths will continue into June again. Still a fascinating but useless stat, even if it only holds for a few weeks. 

2 minutes ago, Nonthaburi Boy said:

This isn’t really the situation - even though it is unclear, that is not it. With a pinch of salt, and just because I have a thick skin and don’t mind being wrong as long as I wasn’t being stupid, here is what I see. There are two channels only for now.

 

For a free vaccine and a pretty good chance (touch wood and dependent on the local production line running smoothly) of getting it well before October you need to register with the government agencies, when they are open for registration for foreigners (over 60 or unhealthy should be opening next week). Which vaccine you get will depend on luck, or rather how much of each vaccine the government have and where they send it. In a month or so locally manufactured Astra Zeneca should be the most likely, but very significant amounts of Sinovac will be about and so will some Moderna (e.g., US donations) and (probably/possibly) Pfizer and Sinopharm. You cannot really choose your vaccine with this option, other than by walking out or not going when you see what you are going to get and trying to register again (and repeat until you get satisfactory result or are blacklisted). 

 

See whether the registration for the over-60s foreigners goes ahead via that website from next week and whether it crashes or chaos otherwise results. If they get through that, then registrations for other foreigners should open up quite soonish after (again, touch wood). All bets are again off for Bangkok if this channel collapses - back to ‘watch this space’ but because us economically valuable foreigners are mostly here in Bangkok they do want to get us vaccinated. There should also be a lot of vaccine supply in Bangkok compared to most other provinces as all roads lead there and as long as Bangkok is sick the whole country will be sick, in more ways than one.

 

You likely can’t use the 7-11 or other channels - some people have managed to register via booths, government hospitals and even apps and some may even get the shots but it doesn’t seem a reliable way to get it done for the vast majority of us.

 

If you choose to wait for a paid shot arranged through a private hospital you know you have to wait until at least September or (more commonly quoted) October. You will then have the option to get whatever they are able to source - seems like Moderna are open to taking an order, but I haven’t seen any evidence that anybody has actually ordered it yet and what Bumrungrad are actually saying is “if we get some in September or October we’ll call you”. They will probably ask you to identify what vaccine you want, but tick as many as possible if you want a shot soonest - I included Astra Zeneca in my ticks, for example. I am happy to have AZ but if, for some reason, I change my mind I can always say ‘no’ and quote a conspiracy theory as a reason for the change of heart. Private companies were supposed to be able to get Sinopharm much sooner than this, but whether they actually will seems ‘likely but unclear’ - our company has abandoned plans to source the vaccine for employees because it is more likely they will get it considerably sooner through the government roll out and I imagine a lot of other companies will decide the same.  The private hospitals seem more confident now that the private option is actually going to happen this year, and the ‘when’ is fairly consistent, but it’s just a ‘firmish’ plan as far as I can see and the consistency could just be because it is only 1-2 purchases via the same agent and that’s what the agent says.

 

But yes, you can register twice (well once as of today if in Bangkok and even that is an ‘expression of interest’ registration) as the systems are completely separate for now - and you probably should if you are not sure you will just take what you are offered. 

 

 

 

 

Oops - I forgot Johnson & Johnson - just as likely to enter government supply at some point as Moderna and Pfizer I guess.

This isn’t really the situation - even though it is unclear, that is not it. With a pinch of salt, and just because I have a thick skin and don’t mind being wrong as long as I wasn’t being stupid, here is what I see. There are two channels only for now.

For a free vaccine and a pretty good chance (touch wood and dependent on the local production line running smoothly) of getting it well before October you need to register with the government agencies, when they are open for registration for foreigners (over 60 or unhealthy should be opening next week). Which vaccine you get will depend on luck, or rather how much of each vaccine the government have and where they send it. In a month or so locally manufactured Astra Zeneca should be the most likely, but very significant amounts of Sinovac will be about and so will some Moderna (e.g., US donations) and (probably/possibly) Pfizer and Sinopharm. You cannot really choose your vaccine with this option, other than by walking out or not going when you see what you are going to get and trying to register again (and repeat until you get satisfactory result or are blacklisted). 

See whether the registration for the over-60s foreigners goes ahead via that website from next week and whether it crashes or chaos otherwise results. If they get through that, then registrations for other foreigners should open up quite soonish after (again, touch wood). All bets are again off for Bangkok if this channel collapses - back to ‘watch this space’ but because us economically valuable foreigners are mostly here in Bangkok they do want to get us vaccinated. There should also be a lot of vaccine supply in Bangkok compared to most other provinces as all roads lead there and as long as Bangkok is sick the whole country will be sick, in more ways than one.

You likely can’t use the 7-11 or other channels - some people have managed to register via booths, government hospitals and even apps and some may even get the shots but it doesn’t seem a reliable way to get it done for the vast majority of us.

If you choose to wait for a paid shot arranged through a private hospital you know you have to wait until at least September or (more commonly quoted) October. You will then have the option to get whatever they are able to source - seems like Moderna are open to taking an order, but I haven’t seen any evidence that anybody has actually ordered it yet and what Bumrungrad are actually saying is “if we get some in September or October we’ll call you”. They will probably ask you to identify what vaccine you want, but tick as many as possible if you want a shot soonest - I included Astra Zeneca in my ticks, for example. I am happy to have AZ but if, for some reason, I change my mind I can always say ‘no’ and quote a conspiracy theory as a reason for the change of heart. Private companies were supposed to be able to get Sinopharm much sooner than this, but whether they actually will seems ‘likely but unclear’ - our company has abandoned plans to source the vaccine for employees because it is more likely they will get it considerably sooner through the government roll out and I imagine a lot of other companies will decide the same.  The private hospitals seem more confident now that the private option is actually going to happen this year, and the ‘when’ is fairly consistent, but it’s just a ‘firmish’ plan as far as I can see and the consistency could just be because it is only 1-2 purchases via the same agent and that’s what the agent says.

But yes, you can register twice (well once as of today if in Bangkok and even that is an ‘expression of interest’ registration) as the systems are completely separate for now - and you probably should if you are not sure you will just take what you are offered. 

I imagine the point of applying for the COE first is that there is no guarantee it will be granted, or how long it will take? Also, regulations can change at any time so somebody eligible at the time of booking the flight is not necessarily still going to be eligible when they apply for the COE and visa.

A new expat at our company has had problems with exactly this - plans made before getting the COEs and visas for his family have been completely messed up because the process is taking longer than expected. In our case it is just a bother since we have no significant penalty for flight and quarantine changes but it made the issue clear to me.

Sorry, I cannot answer your sensible question with any certainty. Why do you think you have to book through special channels? I have never heard of that. We booked (but this was not the US) through American Express travel as usual. Maybe use a service like that if unsure, rather than direct? Then you can talk to somebody before booking and put your mind at ease. 

1 hour ago, atpeace said:

Cherry picking today?  Won't waste my time explaining my point.  Use your noggin 

 

Interestingly, this isn’t really cherry picking. Check out the road death stats since March - they have dropped massively on 2020, and 2020 March to June were very significantly lower than same period of 2019. Strangely, other months are pretty similar to normal but for (roughly) March to June, Covid seems to have done what a hundred road safety campaigns could not.

So Covid deaths are sort of - if we squint hard enough - replacing road deaths but the overall death toll (and looking at only these two causes is definitely cherry-picking LOL) is lower. Conclusion: Dangerous epidemics are good for us? 

Please don’t take this as a dig - I had just wondered the same thing. Data in combination with noggin’ = stimulating fun for all. 

36 minutes ago, Hyna said:

Which year?

 Haha…. Don’t mess with my bliss! 

Actually my initial, initial expectation was January 2022…. things are really looking up!

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

There are around 200 vaccines currently under development and/or in trials now.  A few news ones should be out shortly.  And a few major players gave up.

Yes, I meant the initial ones. Good point though.

1 hour ago, Bundooman said:

But it's only China that approves WHO.

So, 'who' do you trust ?

Out of interest, if that were true why was Sinovac the last of the major vaccines (by some time) to get WHO emergency approval? Interesting strategy by China there, as this delay made it clear to everybody that it is the least effective in stopping the spread. Is Eric Cartman involved in this?

So if the 7 June date is for those in greatest need (good) I am thinking for those of us healthy and under 60, it might be around 14 June that we can start registering? Not going to chase around any more until then as I really do not need the added stress and, to be honest, until a few weeks ago (it’s the hope that kills you) I expected it would be August earliest that I got vaccinated. It’s now looking like I will beat my own prediction. Plus (and okay I am squinting to see the glass half-full here, but it seems likely to be true) the longer I have to wait compared to others the more likely I am able to avoid Sinovac’s low effectiveness . Tiny, tiny victories. 

2 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

 

 

Well, there was this from yesterday's online forum titled "Briefing for Thailand Journalists on the National Vaccine Rollout".

 

"For general foreigners, they can get the jab on the same day as Thais," Dr Sophon.

 

Dr Sophon went on to say that foreigners who want to get vaccinated are also required to register via www.ThailandIntervac.com. 

 

 

I get a security alert - bad certificate, when I go to that web site.

 

When I plow through I see this...

 

ThailandIntervac.com
"The vaccination appointment through this website is for embassy staff, consulates, international organizations and their families only.

If you are identified that you are not the aforementioned staff, the vaccination appointment will be canceled. Please present the employee card at the registration site."
 

 

Begining to feel like I'm in the Martix, or playing MMPORG. Just wondering if today's BOSS can be vanquished as we move closer to capturing the vaunted gold registration card.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, same for me. I would assume we have to wait for June 7, after registration for the embassy staff, etc. closes on June 6 -that matches the message from Vimut. I suppose they might try to open a separate registration page, but with so few days to go and a weekend coming somehow I doubt it, You can still try and register in other ways (as various people have been able to do, sometimes surprisingly) but with the ID card hurdle -nothing new unfortunately for online systems in Thailand - I am thinking it will be least stressful to try that link or whatever else from June 7 and resign myself to nothing before that. If you’re in Bangkok or Phuket you’ll obviously have an advantage as they will be sending more shots there at first. 

In response to the OP, I am thinking about the same thing (except spouse is not included).

If your employer is offering it and you don’t take it won’t that put you in the black sheep category, or there is enough vaccine hesitancy at your work to avoid that? I guess there is sufficient vaccine hesitancy in Thailand that you would be good for a few months though. 

Based on what I can make out among all the chaos, it is actually unlikely they would be able to specify what vaccine anyway as it would depend on precise timing (mostly Sinovac now, then half-half with AZ and then mostly AZ).  Please somebody correct me if I am wrong - it’s hard to keep up with it all.

And if a private company it is more likely to be Sinopharm that they get in June, through Chulabhorn. Sinopharm looks better than Sinovac for personal protection but you could still be a carrier (much, much less likely than without any vaccine, but I would guess after a few weeks a vaccinated me would be significantly less careful, even if I intended not to be). I have an anti-vax 84-year old in the family compound to consider, even if he doesn’t deserve it.

Another thing for me is that I cannot see any way (in my province) to get vaccinated until private hospitals start getting supplies. My previously available channel for registration is now ‘offline’ and will be Sinopharm only if or when it returns. Although people talk about Moderna supplies and it gets my hopes up, there really isn’t a timeline. Also, if Sinopharm is available for private purchase, it is a lot easier to transport and store and hospitals might switch plans because if they order 50,000 doses of Moderna and it arrives after most people in Bangkok have already been vaccinated, they might be stuck with a lot of expensive inventory.

So, dunno. I am not keen on Sinovac or Sinopharm because of my geriatric anti-vaxxer and because I am not sure how useful Sinovac-based vaccine passports are going to be in a year. I am leaning towards getting Sinopharm at the first opportunity and trying to be mindful of its potential weaknesses - but I might lean back to waiting at any time. I’m certainly signing up for anything now - I can always develop sniffles on the appointment date and have to cancel.

1 hour ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

It won't be long until the UK 'embassy' is just a corner table in a British pub. At least you'll be able to have a beer while waiting.

That would be nicer actually. I look forward to it. 

7 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Thanks for this response.  I still think there is some merit in "focused protection" rather than locking down entire populations, with all the harm that that causes, but it's maybe too late for that now.

Yes, me too. We can’t do all this again in 2023 for sure! 

On 4/24/2021 at 6:49 PM, brewsterbudgen said:

A year into the pandemic, one would think that politicians and journalists writing about Covid would have bothered to acquire some basic knowledge of infectious disease epidemiology.

You did not say this (important to point that out) but since you posted the article I assume you share the general attitude that politicians and journalists are likely to blame for the failure of the world to follow the ‘herd immunity’ option. Personally, the GBD people are one of the last groups of respected scientists I would want to listen to on the efficacy of lockdowns. Perhaps the rest of the article mentions that even epidemiologists who have long been aware that lockdowns only work to keep the transmission rate low and fully expected that covid would keep on flaring up do not then agree that the answer is the GBD’s ‘herd immunity’ and ‘protection’ - even without taking into account the immense political difficulty of such a solution? I am sure there are better policies than those generally being applied but the GBD don’t really offer anything practical, and never have.

Much more relevant to the failure of the GBD to affect government policy than the unwillingness of politicians and journalists to inform themselves is that relevant scientists disagreed substantially with the conclusions of the GBD from the beginning (while sympathising with some of the points made). Certainly some of the key GBD signatories have been exposed to some very unfair and uninformed reaction, but we should consider that particular S@#*storm was spurred by certain political actors seizing on the GBD with cherry-picking glee and essentially proving the conclusion of the John Snow Memorandum  (a response to the GBD): “We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence” https://www.johnsnowmemo.com i.e. there was a risk that bad actors were going to use GBD to undermine the health response and since there was not (and is not) enough actual scientific evidence to support the arguments of GBD as a basis for public health policy, their ideas were not helpful or useful. Were their views ignored because everybody else was scared to speak up or was it because they were not credible enough?

There were always serious ethical problems with the route of ‘herd immunity’, even if it was a plausible response statistically (which, importantly, remains unsupported by evidence, even models). For example, most of the dead would clearly come from certain groups in society. If you could identify these, you would essentially know who you were condemning. If you could not identify those groups in advance (much more likely than the GBD presupposed beyond the elderly - and Sweden’s efforts to protect the elderly suggest that might have been an impractical approach, if theoretically sound) then protecting them all is likely to be impossible. The time to vaccination was also a huge factor in number of deaths predicted, never considered by the GBD team. Who did the GBD think was going to break the news to those groups that “We have this nice theory. Honestly, we are essentially rolling the dice with you lot, but we think - not really sure - it might be for the greater good.” Good luck finding a politician that brave (also potentially unethical, but that would be to easier to find). In practice, outside of Sweden you mainly got the “it’s all going to be fine” and “it’s just a flu” nonsense from politicians. Spoiler: it wasn’t fine. 

The science behind the declaration also seems to significantly underplay the effect of health services reaching breaking point and the effects of mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID on longer-term health (the very recent, large-scale study in Nature supports the supposition that this is a problem - significantly higher death rates in the 6 months after mild infection, with no real idea how much longer that higher rate will persist). They also seemed not to have factored in the number of variants that arise with greater virulence (an inevitable consequence of a herd immunity approach) and the grave danger that with enough variants, antibodies and vaccines might no longer offer enough protection. 

Here is an example of the reasonable scientific reaction in opposition to the original declaration, made at the time, without any benefit of hindsight.

Prof James Naismith FRS FRSE FMedSci, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“The main signatories include many accomplished scientists and I read it with interest.  I will not be signing it however.

“At one level this declaration is a statement of a series of scientific truths and as such is non-controversial.  The declaration identifies the elderly and vulnerable to be at far far greater risk from covid-19 than the bulk of the population, an established fact. 

*Edited for Fair Use*

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

Six months on, they are still failing to win over or listen to the likes of Prof. Naismith, who appears very sympathetic to their ‘challenge the orthodoxy’ approach but not to their decision to offer scientific advice in a public forum without thinking things through. What the GBD people really needed (and still need) is more research and better evidence so the likes of Prof. Naismith can be more enthusiastic about their ideas. Much of what they unfortunately seem to produce now is content for misleading newspaper articles. 

46 minutes ago, wombat said:

please correct me if i am wrong....the way i read it is if you test positive you don't get the luxury of home quarantine as an option it is off to the interment facility, go straight to bed/jail do not pass go do not collect $200

You are not wrong, but in practice there is a shortage of beds and notification of your test will be via email a day or so after your test, rather than a knock at the door. You will have time to make a run for your cabin in the woods - just please don’t use public transport.

And make sure you email in a full list of your movements for the past 10 days or so (skipping the visit to stock the cabin of course) with names - they’ll also have time to make a run for it. 

56 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

This has me perplexed and confused.  My O-A Visa permitted to stay date is November 20, 2020.  Prior to Covid the plan was to leave at the beginning of November and return before the 20th, and then extend it for another year.  However, now with it not looking like there will be a possibility to leave and return my plan is to turn the O-A Visa into an extension of Stay, but the plan was to start this extension 45 days prior to the expiration of the Visa at CW, which would be the beginning of the 2nd week of October.  My confusion is in regards to the verbiage used and it saying that you should apply for the extension at your local immigration office between now and 26 September.  

 

Prior to the O-A visa's I have used for the past 3 years, I was on an O Visa based upon marriage, but now divorced, well 3 years ago, that extension was done away with when I did not get a re-entry stamp and flew back to the US at which time I did the O-A retirement Visa as I would fly back and forth to the US at least twice a year and would use the ME portion to extend the Visa.

 

What is the correct way of obtaining the extension, do as my plan is, or do what the announcement says.

None of these announcements really applies to you as you have a valid visa until November. You need to do 90-day reports and extensions as normal. There are no real obstacles to this with any lower capacity at offices generally being offset by fewer applications. Focus on that. The rest of your situation is irrelevant, although as an "always have a Plan B" person I think your plan to start your process early is wise this year. 

Relax and put your feet up for now.