Brierley

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thailand-to-get-moderna-vaccine-by-this-october

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thailand-to-get-10-to-20-million-doses-of-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine#:~:text=The Pfizer vaccine is expected to arrive in,administered to adults as well as the elderly.

 

Moderna not until October, and that is exactly what my doctor said last Monday when I saw him, Pfizer, well that one is still up in the air, could be by Septmenre but maybe not until the 4th quarter.

 

Or were you thinking the Sinovac or AZ vaccine what was being discussed by going to a private hospital for a vaccination.  Have a good day

So Pfizer in 3rd or 4th quarter, that's what I had heard also.

6 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

 

So if the central banks were independent why were they not taking the initiative and agreeing amongst themselves to lower interest rates?

Why was it the politicians doing it?

 

End of myth of ‘independent’ central banks - OMFIF

 

Central banks are not independent. 

A Central Bank is independent within a particular country, that doesn't give them international scope to act independently and determine global interest rates or policies, that's for politicians to do. 

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Private sector will not be until October at the earliest unfortunately.

Is there an official quote on that or is that your guess?

Just now, shackleton said:

some on here will now be looking at the Foreign exchanges

See if their currencies will be rising against the Baht  in the coming weeks/ months 

Come on the Sterling pound ????

Here's A hot tip....the April export numbers will be announced next week and they will show a 10% increase over the previous month, the Baht will open stronger on Monday as a result.

5 minutes ago, BestB said:

Exactly and consider your wife lucky, most did not get it or got 1/3 of what she got.

 I been paying personal tax for 15 years, I got nothing , no tax cut , no tax refund , absolutely nothing.

 

Some of my staff managed to get 18000 baht and others got nothing .

 

while 18000 may sound a lot , split that into almost 2 years of no work snd it’s less than 1000 per month , try to survive on that 

My wife has paid her social security payment every month for the past twenty years, have you and your staff, because that seems to be the deciding factor as far as I can tell, not income tax.

4 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

So we are agreed then.

While central banks may look independent the reality is that they are not.

If ever you learn anything about this subject RS you could become dangerous!

Central banks exist, in part, to manage the financial policy of their own country, of which they have control, against the financial policies of other countries, of which they have no control.

If one day a major global crisis comes along, one that needs global coordination, and the Finance Ministers of the various countries get together to agree a coordinated resolution, they can all go back to their respective central banks and say hey, look what we've agreed, they will all do this if we do that. There are times when one entity must take the initiative and take the lead, that does not result in loss of independence, it's the way everything in life works.

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Fully aware of what the MPC is.

So why were government finance ministers from all around the world agreeing to lower interest rates if they did not have the power to do it?

There's an interaction of course between the Finance Ministry or Treasury of every country and their Central Bank and when the economic problem is of a global scale it needs global coordination. The Governors of the Central Banks could meet and discuss these things but it's not their job to set government policy, only to carry it out. BTW it wasn't the Finance Ministers from all round the world, it was only the finance ministers from the G20.

3 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

When the banking crisis was at its height, with money too tight and commercial banks in great distress, the world’s leading finance ministers, including the UK chancellor, agreed to stabilise markets by cutting interest rates together. 

Now how could they do that if the central banks, who are responsible for setting interest rates, were independent of government? 

The government doesn't set interest rates, the MPC sets interest rates and the MPC is a part of the Central Bank. Government can wish and hope but it doesn't have a voice in that matter.

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/Pages/default.aspx

8 minutes ago, SoilSpoil said:

Is this speculation, or for real?

It's nonsense is what it is! The limits have been kept at much much higher levels for many years, they have tried to reduce them down to 1 million a couple of times but at the last minute they always change their minds and leave them high. The DPA runs this scheme, it's insurance which is managed separately from the banks.

14 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Here's a thought. The government now has taken its borrowing to the very limit to what is allowed, yet there is every chance that the country will be suffering from the pandemic for at least the remainder of this year. So what happens if/when the latest borrowing runs out before the pandemic is banished?

The limits will be changed in Parliament. The borrowing limit is an internal political constraint, nothing more.

Yes.......! The Commerce Minister reported that exports had likely increased by more than 10% in April, the numbers will be released on Tuesday he said. Reported in the paper that cannot be named. Logically I'd expect THB to open stronger on Monday so I'm not sure how we handle our wager since the news is being leaked slowly over the weekend, in advance of official release.

How about you just hand over the scotch anyway. :))

10 hours ago, clivebaxter said:

why would a UK bank want a Thai tax code? I never heard of this before

Not  tax code, a tax ID number. A tax code is a UK thing which tells other how much tax you have to pay etc. A tx I is just a tax payer reference number which identifies the person to the tax authorities.

56 minutes ago, BestB said:

And how much money did agency owner received? Or everyone else who is not a licensed tour guide ? 

Why ask me, how would I know? I can only report the things I see, not the things others see.

Maybe some tips in here that might help, we both have the same problem:

2 minutes ago, BestB said:

If borrowed money was well spent to support people and businesses then it’s the right thing to do but all

the borrowed money seems to just disappear into a black hole

This purely anecdotal of course but it does make the point: my wife has received about four tranches of government money since this whole covid business started. None of them were large, the first was about 7k per month for three months or so, then there was 2k for three month, followed by 2k of 50/50 spending at small businesses and now this week, she's just received another 2k for something or other. All in all I guess about 35k, she's a licensed tour guide and she received the money automatically. Multiply that alone by the number of similar recipients and it's not small change.

12 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

 

Have you been tested for H Pylori?

 

 

 

Yes, several times. I'm pretty sure the problem is with the small bowel, Sheryl's' suggestions fit well, especially motility since I have lower disk/nerve problems. Also, the pause in the capsule endoscopy travels suggests similar. 

4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The excitement reach new heights as they leave this cliffhanger over the weekend.

I guess our cut-off time as COB Monday is still workable or we could add a second rate pinpoint, just so international markets also have a chance to play their hand.

Tuesday noon would work good.

 

Shutting down Thailand's industrial heartland might work in my favor. 

 

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/21/chonburi-governor-orders-temporary-closure-of-okamura-metal-factory-after-cluster-of-98-covid-19-cases-found/

Tuesday noon? Ha, I really don't think so...why not the 14th June, just to be safe! :))

Since the announcement will be made at 10:30am Monday, let's just go with midday, that way the impact on the rate is solely down to that news rather than any other new that might subsequently be announced.

Anyone who is UK resident can put up to 2,600 Pounds per year (Net) into a personal pension, after which the government will add 20%, these things are true even if you don't earn or pay tax. It was worth my while to become UK resident again and to do this after being non-resident for almost 20 years.

The domicile argument is usually used in the context of where a person doesn't live rather than where a person does live. In the UK for example, a UK citizen is regarded as being domiciled there, until they prove they aren't. The civil and legal authorities don't benefit by accepting a person as being domiciled in a particular country, it's not as though being domiciled brings with it all manner of benefits that person wouldn't otherwise have. But not being domiciled somewhere can bring benefits, exclusion from Inheritance tax for example.

Everyone must be regarded as being domiciled somewhere, it is the country or place with which they have the strongest ties. For example, I am a UK citizen who has lived in Thailand for twenty years. If I have no ties with the UK I could be regarded as being domiciled in Thailand and the authorities would be unable to make a case that I am UK domiciled. But if I have only one remaining connection with the UK I may lose that argument. Thailand wouldn't have a say in that discussion either way, me being domiciled here is beyond their control since it is only my ties that are being scrutinized. Unfortunately in the case of the UK and potentially other countries also, the issue of domicile cannot be concluded whilst the person is still alive. This is not to confuse estate domicile with domicile for taxation and income purposes, the latter being much easier to achieve.

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Unfortunately the BOT acts as the custodian for the Government and the Cabinet of the Ministry of Finance and the Government is who appoints the Governor of BOT.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/AboutBOT/RolesAndHistory/Pages/RolesAndResponsibility.aspx

 

The BOT provides banking facilities to the government in terms of depository and lending facilities for the Ministry of Finance, acts as the custodian for the government, acts as the representative of the government for investment in assets and FX, trades and transfers the bill of exchange, securities, and share certificate, and controls and oversees FX.  In additions, the BOT may provide banking facilities to the state enterprise or other government agencies. Moreover, the BOT acts as the registrar for the government bonds by acting as the government representative in purchasing and selling government bonds, paying principal and interest, or acts as the registrar of state enterprises, specialized financial institutions, or other government agencies.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialInstitutions/Scope/Documents/ScopeOfSupervision.pdf

The Bank of Thailand as appointed by the Ministry of Finance Specialized Financial Institutions (SFIs) SFIs are the state-owned financial institutions established with each specific law, whose duties are to serve the government policies in promoting economic development and supporting investment. They are under the Ministry of Finance's supervision and the Bank of Thailand is empowered from the Ministry of Finance to engage in examination in SFIs' performances and risks associated businesses. Thus, the results will be submitted to the Minister of Finance

 

The two are interlinked it would appear.

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves | 1960-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)

In the event of a major global crisis, this is not a bad position to be in. With big surpluses, large foreign exchange reserves, manageable external debt, and public expenditures offset by tax revenues the government of Thailand can, if it wants to, raise lots of cash quickly and cheaply in a pinch.  You may notice this is somewhat of a Catch-22. The reason Thailand is afforded lower yields by capital markets is precisely because it doesn’t run deficits and has moderate debt. But if there is any time to dip into years of accrued fiscal good will, it is surely during a global pandemic that has choked off some of your economy’s main sources of revenue. The government of Thailand agreed, approving a 1.9 trillion baht rescue package in May (worth approximately $60 billion at the time, but due to the baht strengthening since then now closer to $63 billion). At around 10 percent of GDP, it is a sizable stimulus.

 

So any loans the Country needs comes from using the Cash reserves as collateral and the Loan comes from the BOT.  Total so far borrowed is in the Trillions, so one wonders how they expect to pay it back.  A major balancing act on the edge of a sword. 

Coming back to various out of context parts of Ryan's cut and paste explanation!

1) The BOT loan for covid bailout was not 1.9 trillion, in fact, government borrowed only 900 billion from BOT, the rest was sourced from the bond market.

2) you found the roles and responsibilities of the BOT page yet you didn't list what they are, if you would have done that you would see that government plays no part in many aspects of BOT's core functions, in which they are totally independent. Fore example, monetary policy and stability, managing banking facilities for financial institutions, establishing and supporting the payments system, managing and supporting the foreign exchange system and its controls, printing and issuing banknotes and other securities, etc etc etc. Where BOT does serve government is that the central bank is required to implement policy determined by government, that means in practice that BOT must create favorable economic conditions in which to implement those policies, along with the tools and instruments that are necessary.

3) Interest rates are determined by the MPC which is a function of BOT, not government. Exchange rates are a function of the FOREX market and IMF rules, the BOT serves to adjust the exchange rate accordingly, not at government whim and fancy. If it were any other way, international governments, the international FOREX market and international trading partners would have no confidence in the country and wouldn't do business here and THB would be worthless.

https://www.bot.or.th/English/AboutBOT/RolesAndHistory/pages/rolesandresponsibility.aspx#:~:text=The BOT provides banking facilities,of exchange%2C securities%2C and share

For whatever reason they have delayed releasing the trade balance numbers for April, until Monday 24th at 10:30am.

11 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

 

No central bank is independent of the government.

They may claim to be but in reality its a fiction.

You are quite wrong on this point.

2 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Until the government, answerable to no-one at all, decides otherwise. I could say more as there is a precedent, but I'd be in danger of breaking TVF rules.

I hear you. It's important, I think, to remember that the BOT is independent, in the past that independence has been reaffirmed at the highest levels. It is not even remotely conceivable that any government could or would sequester those funds from BOT without their approval or from higher, it would result in a catastrophic outcome, socially, economically and militarily.

1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

You do nto mention where in Thailand you are. Soundsl ike Chiang Mai?

 

In any case, from what you report of extensive effort having failed to find the cause, I think it is best you see this doctor in Bangkok, even if it means a trip:

https://www.bangkokhospital.com/en/doctor/asst-prof-dr-parit-mekaroonkamol

https://www.bumrungrad.com/en/doctors/Parit-Mekaroonkamol

 

(Same doctor, different hospitals.) He is  at Bumrungrad Friday evenings, at Bangkok Hospital on Sundays   only. He is also at Chulalongkorn (government hospital) but getting in to see him there requires going in person to make appointment and there will likely be a wait list, not so practical if one does not live in Bangkok - and also Chula is badly affected by the COVID crisis, many elective things on hold there.

 

In addition to being extremely well qualified (US trained, on faculty at a leading Med school and has taught at a prestigious US medical school as well) he has won accolades from several TV members for managing to diagnose conditions no other doctor could.

 

Obviously, bring the reports/CDs of all prior tests with you. I doubt there is any point at all to more scans, barium enema etc. I suspect you have either a motility disorder,  small bowel overgrowth (which can be bacterial or fungal) , an undiagnosed infection, or a food allergy.

 

Whether you want to travel to Bangkok right now with the COVID situation is another matter. I doubt you will get any further with this without it, but the situation does nto sound urgent.

 

 

Many thanks Sheryl, I will see how and when I might manage a visit.

24 minutes ago, trainman34014 said:

Probably shifted Offshore many years ago and is accruing interest for the most 'Important People' right now !

The foreign currency reserves don't belong to the government, the government cannot touch them. They belong to the BOT and are used to guarantee trade and exports and to ensure currency stability.