blackprince

Globalism is interested in you whether you are uninterested in (discussing) it or not ???? In fact this forum is based on globalisation of communications. It's ubiquitous, we can't get away from damned stuff. "No man is an island" John Donne c 1600. Actually it's so beautiful and apposite, please let me enlarge: No man is an island, Entire of itself; Every man is a piece of the continent, A part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, As well as if a promontory were: As well as if a manor of thy friend's Or of thine own were. Any man's death diminishes me, Because I am involved in mankind. And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee.

Good question. It's a complicated question, and probably a complicated answer. In our school district several hundred children have tested positive, but ony 4 or 5 of them were hospitalised and that was because it was considered that their symptoms were serious enough to require hospitalisation ie it was for the students' benefit. As with adults, visits are not allowed. But I can't say this is policy all over the country. To date there have been various bodies responsible for covid policy that has affected schools - national. provincial, amphur, and individual schools themselves, plus the Ministry of Education, both local and national. And, depending on what the issue is about, local bodies may over-ride national guidelines, or not, as the case may be.

It's a difficult issue. The intersection between public policy and epidemioolgy is not an easy one to navigate, especially for schools. A large number of people in the UK resisted re-opening of schools because they believed it would lead to a large increase in cases. They turned out to be right. The significant increase in cases in the UK is due to mainly to the large number of school age students testing positive. But overwhelmingly these students will just shrug off the illness, the evidence for this is uncontestable now. And the benefit of that is long term natural immunity. On the other hand they can transmit the illness to older family members of course. The fact that many of these family members are double or triple vaxed complicates the policy discussion even further. Where I'm a bit confused about the policy in Thailand is that schools were closed when cases were low, and are reopening now cases are high, though there is substantial regional variation of course. One thing's for sure, I don't envy teachers in Bangkok in large unventilated classes.

I'm not suggesting that the COPs have been perfect, far from it. You seem to be saying you're unhappy with what you see as their lack of progress, which would imply you would like them to do more. I think all rational people would agee with you. Re China and the US, they have both made substantial progress, including a bilateral agreement that was announced just earlier this week, but again many would say they haven't done enough yet. In my opinion the most positive feature of the last 10 years has been the huge increase in public understanding of this issue, because without that little will change. But I agree that governmental change and cooperation is the key factor in actually delivering the change. I'm not an ideological warrior on this or any other issue, my opinions are purely evidence based. The massive acceleration in man made climate change has really occurred in the last 70 years or so, but it started in the industrial revolution. The NASA link below shows this clearly and has good explanatory text too. https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

This is fairly a common response, but I'm sure you recognise this issue is a bit bigger than your own lifespan regardless of your age (or my own life too of course). Changes to climate, both man-made and natural, generally happen over a longer timespan than human life. That's one reason why it's taken so long for the average joe to understand the issues. But now the overwhelming majority of average joes do understand enough of the issues.

The next time you go to the supermaket check the labels on your purchases. If they're not in a language you can read, ask someone to translate, We are all part of a highly globalised world whether we like it or not. Putting our heads in the sand doesn't change that. There are pluses and minuses to this regardless of which side of a binary political mindset one choses to position oneself. The book by Joe Stiglitz that I linked earlier is the most comprehensive account out there. It's not a particularly easy read even though it's pitched at the general reader. But trying to discuss these issues without an understanding of them is not discussion. No offence brother.

Actually, the terminology is "anthropomorphic climate change" but "anthropomorphic" is an even rarer word than "anthropological", especially for people who are unfamiliar with the issues, which obviously includes the overwhelming majority of deniers. That's why I call it "man made climate change", after all it has been largely men, acutally largely white men, responsible for the man made climate disasters that are already with us. I've posted uncontestable evidence from NASA confirming man made climate change a couple of times on other threads in the last couple of weeks. I assume that even the vast majority of deniers would accept that NASA is not part part of a global conspiracy.

It's a fair point, but not one that I can entirely agree with. It seems to me that a large number of foreign retirees (not all of them) who spend their time on forums are particularly closed minded and xenophobic. They chose Thailand because they can't afford to retire at home, and they bring their prejudices with them. Having worked in 25+ countries I suppose I must say I am very aware of globalism. In fact as a youth I thought I was a child of the universe, but must admit my horizons have possibly narrowed a little since then - I have no interest in joining Bezos, Branson et al in space tourism. As Jeffr2 noted, globalism and globalisation are terms which have become very politicised, but I'd add not just by the right. Probably the most comprehensive account I've read of this is Joe's Stiglitz's "Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited" . It's only a few pounds (and even less dollars) and is sure to occupy any reader for days if not months! https://www.amazon.co.uk/Globalization-Its-Discontents-Revisited-Anti-Globalization-ebook/dp/B077MTSYZ9/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=globalization+and+its+discontents&qid=1636761524&qsid=262-2471188-5287718&s=digital-text&sr=1-1&sres=B077MTSYZ9%2CB07QDSGYKD%2CB07NPSQZBT%2CB08ML7T3GB%2CB07Q1WWW8G%2CB00936RTBU%2CB01C544KUO%2CB076B9CPZB%2CB07N4F6RV1%2CB0131SAN0E%2CB08PPBTL5R%2CB0038AUYEG%2CB0131SAN7M%2CB0055RST92%2CB07F36R6J6%2CB08LDJRFJL&srpt=ABIS_BOOK

As we all know, the overwhelming majority of research studies (97-99%) by experts in the field confirm man-made climate change and nowadays the overhwelming majority of the public agree. The small rump of deniers is unsurprisingly over-represented on these comments. Just skimming through the comments it seems that one of the the key global issues and one that is very relevant to Thailand has not been mentioned yet - food security. Being a major food producer and exporter Thailand is in a fortunate but also risky position as climate change affects food production and food security, but no where near as risky as certain nations who depend on food imports to survive and who lack the farmland to redeploy.

Well I am older, probably a lot older, and commensurately more experienced. I have managed data science projects for decades. Data science was the focus of my BSc and MA theses, so I obviously don't fit the stereotype you are painting. One of the challenges of managing data science techies, whether in the stock market or other application areas, is getting them to look at the bigger picture, something many of them are unable to do because (1) they are trained to dive into the detail and (2) they usually have a narrow psychological focus which attracted them to that kind of work in the first place. In layman's terms, they often can't see the wood for the trees. Fortunately I don't fit into the latter category either. The bigger covid picture includes: (1) long covid, estimated by the UK's NHS at c 50% of discharged patients and by other research at c 50% of cases (that surprised me too) - I linked to the research a few days ago. As I'm sure you know, long covid has many potential symptoms ranging from substantial damage to vital organs to debilitating brain fog. Long covid can affect people of any age, otherwise healthy or not. (2) breakdown of national health services due to overloading of beds and ICU facilities. Such a national catastrophe would have unpredictable societal consequences, particularly in developed nations where citizens tend to expect a bit more from their governments. (3) suppression of more aggressive mutant variants. If covid was just about the mortality rate, my analysis would possibly not be too different from yours, for most demographic groups anyway; but covid isn't just about the mortality rate - far from it.

A couple of days ago I posted a link that explains the increasing numbers of deaths among the vaccinated in the UK. Here's another one. The basic reasoning is not hard to follow: 1. vaccination reduces the risk of death but doesn't eliminate it. 2. as more people become vaccinated a growing number of vaccinated people will die. The difference between the actual/real numbers (aka absolute numbers) and the rate is that the rate is adjusted as a percentage or ratio. But not everyone has a background in stats so misunderstandings are not only common but very understandable too. https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-why-its-easy-to-misinterpret-numbers-of-deaths-among-the-vaccinated/

It's the very link I posted yesterday Jeff ???? That particular set of stats is cumulative - ie it's the total count from the beginning of the pandemic. At one point in the history of that particular set of stats the UK was the 3rd worst in the world (covid deaths per 100,000) and slowly got better as the vaccination rollout progressed (the vaccine rollout has been the only bright spot in the UK's bungled dealing with covid). But the stats on new cases show that the UK is getting worse again, and is again much worse than Thailand even during Thailand's 3rd wave, as is the USA. This is largely due to the complaceny following the vaccination programme - ie many people no longer bother with masks or distancing, with some experts predicting a shortage of hospital beds and ICU beds at Christmas as a consequence. It's several decades since I left the UK, and I have no intention of returning, so I can't really explain why I continue to take an interest in the place apart from it being some point of reference that I know in detail. That and the sheer horror of watching it descend into chaos and corruption i guess!!

I'm sure we agree about that. But my point is that overall the covid success rate in Thailand remains much better than in all our western home countries, It would be a long essay to go into all the reasons for that, but the stats from reliable sources like Johns Hopkins speak for themselves. But I will give one specific example (of many possible ones) where Thailand's performance has been infinitely better than my native UK's - tracing covid contacts. This was done extremely effectively in Thailand and at almost zero cost via the existing local government and village administrative infrastructure. In the UK it was done very badly at the cost of literally billions (GBP) much of which went into the pockets of friends of politicians via contracts that bypassed the standard tendering process.

I agree with you re the OP's likely reasoning. However I don't agree with the reasoning itself. MRNA technology has been trialled in one form or another for decades, and has been subject to more intense scrutiny and research than any other vaccine technology. The reason that the Covid MRNA vaccines were developed so quickly was because of the (1) decades of prior research and development (2) the massive and unprecedented mobilisation of resources, both financial and non-financial, to address this global pandemic. I'm sure most people know, but just in case a few don't, I'll also clarify that clinical trialling for the MRNA vaccines did not cut corners: the overall time for trialling was reduced by conducting the individual stages in parallel rather than sequentially, but the stages themselves were as per usual. I'd also add to that the last time I checked the CCP had not released detailed trial data for its covid vaccines. This does not surprise me because the CCP is known for its opaqueness. However trial data is freely available for western vaccines as usual. By the way, I'm not trying to put anyone off sinovac/sinopharm - far from it, any vaccine is better than none - despite its lower success rate.

Oh I thought they were visiting tourists, not in residence for years! And I'm really not sure how seeing them on beaches or in restaurants leads you to the conclusion that they were uneducated working class. Russian social norms are not the same as in the US or UK anyway, and can easily be misunderstood by westerners who have no experience of living or working in Russia. And people behave differently on holiday as we know from the many western kings-for-a-day that come here. In your first post on this you seemed to infer that they must be working class because their deal cost $600 (I guess your knowledgeable friend told you that too), but if you had knowledge of pay in Russia in general and Siberia in particular then perhaps you would revise your opinion about what $600 is in Russia. On the other hand I'm sure these people were not members of the Russian rich that bought up quite a few of the premium sea-view condos around Jomtien etc

You may be right in general Sheryl. But in my own experience my regional government hospital billed my Thai insurance company directly when I was an inpatient for a few weeks last year, and it was a very hefty bill. Both the hospital and the insurer were very efficient. Intererestingly enough, I chose to transfer to the regional government hospital because their service and facilities were better than the 2 private hospitals where I spent the first week or so.

They may be the exception that proves the rule. But how do you know they were uneducated working class? I'm certain you don't speak Russian, so if you communicated with them it must have been in English, which would indicate they were substantially more educated than most westerners. Any clarification would be welcome.

Nice to read a balanced post. And you're right about the Chinese and Russians too, and the prejudices shown towards them by many westerners here. I haven't been to tourist spots like Pattaya for a few years, but the Russians I saw there were with their families unlike many of the solitary westerners spending their days on barstools. Something that many westerners probably don't understand is that the majority of international Russian travellers are educated middle class. The Russian working class would not have the means of getting here. The thing that does surprise me a little about your post is retiring at 41. I've been working legally since I've been here (not as a teacher) and I think I'd go a bit crazy if I was retired. But then we're all a bit different, so each to their own. The covid hit to tourism has of course been disastrous for many extended families who depend on the "informal economy" floating out of Pattaya etc. But like everywhere else in the world covid has revealed the fissures in society, not least of all in my native UK. Personally, I'm a big fan of "building back better" but that's definitely not happening in the UK, which is currently drowning in government sleaze and corruption unparallelled in living memory.

I agree with a fair amount of what you said, but I'm finding it difficult to think of a country that has improved over that time period. I also question the notion that the amount of time on the ground determines one's knowledge of a country. Surely it's the extent to which one engages. People whose engagement consists of little more than going to the atm once a month are really just tourists, even if they've been residing for decades.

On the topic of whether vaccines eliminate disease or not, the evidence is that it depends on the disease (and the vaccine). There's little mileage in splitting hairs about covid vaccine efficacy. Surely everyone here is informed enough after nearly a year of empirical evidence about covid vaccines that none of them eliminates covid but all of them substantially reduce viral load and the risk of transmission, death, serious illness, and mutating variants. Given the accelerating research in this field we may well find that a vaccine will be developed that does eliminate covid, but we are some way away from that right now.

Thailand's "entire 3rd wave" is still insignificant to what's happening in the US and the UK, as Johns Hopkins stats will confirm - that's the point. It's also worth pointing out that you have been most vocal in opposing the imposition of lockdowns (comparatively mild though they have been in Thailand), yet lockdowns have demonstrated the simplest way to halt the spread. So you do seem to be contradicting yourself on this. Your preferred approach seems to have been (1) open everything up (2) masks are ineffective. Such an approach would have been catastrophic. Given the hogging of western vaccines by the west, and its failure to honour its earlier vaccine distribution promises beyond a bare minimum (apart from AZ of coiurse), Thailand has done reasonably well in the vaccine rollout, even if much of that was the comparatively ineffective sinopharm/sinovac. (By the way my two doses were Pfizer, so many thanks to the US Govt and the Thai administration for that). You obviously have a lot of sour graps about Thailand, and I'm sure you're not alone. But if you do chose to settle in Mexico as you've said, I wish you well. Well I wish you well anyway ????

Ah I see you've shifted the goalposts from "retirees" tro "impoverished retirees". A couple of posts back you said that these retirees could not afford to retire in their own country. I put it to you that such people are not usually best qualified to comment on the respective merits of international retirement destinations. As I mentioned a few posts back, the sad truth is that many or most (ie over 50%) western retirees are here because it's cheap for them (we seem to agree about that at least), and that when the economics change they get squeezed out. The changes to insurance are an example of that. Apart from letting off steam there really isn't much more to be said on the topic.

To be honest that's great as far as I'm concerned. Personally I think it would be a stretch to describe aged economic refugees from the west as "gentlemen",