FarAngMoh

Great is impossible to quantify, and the US has always had problems. But I think the 80’s was the best decade in my lifetime. The 50’s sounded like the best decade in my parent’s lifetime. Optimism was in the air and the future was so bright you had to wear shades ????. 
 

The current political culture is just disgusting, fueled by narrative spin from the media on both the left and right. I’ve stopped watching most all news out of the US for that reason. I have friends who are both liberal and conservative, and I can almost always find some common ground with both. 

Equality is great… until it doesn’t fit our narrative.

Sounds familiar.

Conveniently forgotten are the Asian students who have been discriminated against - that is what the supreme court case was about. 

I would at least bring her for a proper psychiatric evaluation first… after all, you did marry her, for better or worse, right? Let’s say you started flipping out, wouldn’t you want her to do the same for you?

In the meantime, you might try to eliminate any breakable items from the home. 

6 hours ago, driver52 said:

that's what they said about the banks and look at the mess it has created now.....what mess? well why are half the eastern world fed up with the US and deciding to create there own 'monetary systems' outside of USD, swift etc.......

I didn’t say it was a good thing (too big to fail), it is just the reality we live in today, and it is not going to change overnight. 
 

And yes. you might need an alternate monetary system if you decide to wage war on a neighboring country — it’s just not considered good etiquette these days — times have changed. 

Several years ago I opened an SDFCU account with just my passport and proof of residential address abroad. I used a promo code to get free ACC membership, so it cost nothing — good backup in case my primary bank account gets closed for being abroad. They sent the debit card by FedEx to my address abroad for free. Basic checking $0 balance requirement allows you to add TOD beneficiaries. No complaints so far. 

59 minutes ago, FarAngMoh said:

I think all theoretical ways to lock in the rate (risk free hedge) have been covered in this thread.

 

it’s important to understand that these methods are normally used by companies to reduce currency risk on large balance sheet items — not by individuals to protect their purchasing power on living expenses… so it should not be a surprise if these methods are unsuitable, impractical or even impossible on an individual basis and on such a small scale.

 

I would encourage the OP to take a serious look at the USDTHB rate from Jan 1, 2007* (when it was 34) until today. It has mostly traded in the 29-37 range for the last decade and a half.  This can help you assess the likely risk of upside (+9%) and downside (-15%) from the 34 level, and whether attempting to hedge that is really worthwhile. 

* pre-2007 rates include some “hangover” effect from the Asian crisis (I moved to Asia just before the crisis, lived through it all).

One final morsel for thought… in the event that the dollar were to collapse, it would be highly unlikely that the THB could remain strong and not devalue as well. In fact, it might lose more than the USD in such an event.

Like the old saying goes… when the US sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold. Maybe it will change in the future, but for now the USD is a currency that is too big to fail and a collapse would be a catastrophic event for the entire planet.

1 hour ago, uncletiger said:

Interesting. I will study this. I'm not sure how you got that figure, but I will try and figure it out. Thank you.

 

In fact though, I am trying to do this with financial instruments available from Thai institutions. From experience, I would expect Thai brokerages to give better rates on Baht trading pairs than anything offshore. Sadly, I have been unable to find any Thai firm that can do options on futures. And from my limited understanding this seems to be the only truly risk free way to do it.

 

 

 

I think all theoretical ways to lock in the rate (risk free hedge) have been covered in this thread.

it’s important to understand that these methods are normally used by companies to reduce currency risk on large balance sheet items — not by individuals to protect their purchasing power on living expenses… so it should not be a surprise if these methods are unsuitable, impractical or even impossible on an individual basis and on such a small scale.

I would encourage the OP to take a serious look at the USDTHB rate from Jan 1, 2007* (when it was 34) until today. It has mostly traded in the 29-37 range for the last decade and a half.  This can help you assess the likely risk of upside (+9%) and downside (-15%) from the 34 level, and whether attempting to hedge that is really worthwhile. 

* pre-2007 rates include some “hangover” effect from the Asian crisis (I moved to Asia just before the crisis, lived through it all).

11 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

The OP needs to enter the options and futures market, see a broker and buy an option to buy X THB at whatever rate gives you the 25k USD. If you don't make the strike price, walk away from the deal whereas buying a future will commit you to complete the transaction.

I am not sure why your message did not elicit any response, but I agree that this is another legitimate way to  hedge currency, provided such options or futures contracts are available, and for that kind of dollar amount. However, I believe only forward contracts commit you to complete the transaction, futures contracts are more flexible. There is a cost associated with buying any such contracts, so have to weigh that against the potential savings in the event the USD dives. I really doubt buying this kind of “insurance” will pay off, but that is a separate question from how can it be done.

51 minutes ago, uncletiger said:

Hi ForAngMoh. Thank you for that suggestion. I have considered that approach, but I am unaware of any Thai financial institutions that will write USD loans. Are you aware of a financial service provider in Thailand that could offer such an instrument in USD?

 

 

How about an unsecured line of credit back in your home country?

Another alternative (if you really want to make a bet against the USD) is to buy a short dollar ETF like UDN that increases when the value of the USD decreases. If you have an account with Interactive Brokers for example, you could buy such an ETF on margin. Just be careful, as this kind of thing can be very risky.

As often happens in Asia, what’s ordinary back home can suddenly become wildly noteworthy over here; not just because it’s from far away “exotic” lands… but rather — it doesn’t take much to beat the pants off wannabe Western restaurants here. 

42 minutes ago, puchooay said:

No. "THEM" can be used in place of "him" or "her" if one is unsure as to which to use.

It is bring “xem” back.
 

Better brush up on your gender neutral pronouns before you get cancelled. LOL

On 1/27/2023 at 4:36 AM, just_Elaine said:

Thank you everyone for your advice and information. Here is what I am trying:

I decided to do a domestic wire to Bangkok Bank New York since it sounds like this worked for someone recently.

I am highly annoyed with Fidelity at the moment because I could not see any information on whether or not I can provide the information needed for Bangkok Bank New York.

I went to the Schwab website which allows wire transfers from the brokerage account not the checking account, but said you could just transfer from the checking to the brokerage account. They have a $15 charge for this service. I was able to input additional information like branch and address. Anyway, I hope it works and thank you again. I really appreciate the input and will start looking at stuff like wire.

I used to have a PNC account with free domestic wires if you have a certain account status (didn’t take much to reach it, maybe $2,500), but the problem was, they insisted that I come physically to the bank branch to initiate EVERY wire. I have since closed my account. 
 

SDFCU offers $6 domestic wires for Emeritus members. I recently opened an account with them but have yet to try this. 

I don’t know what is more concerning, having just one bank account, or keeping 1m THB in the ANY bank rather than investing it.

15 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

You said it was a reality for all vaccines.  Do you have a link to support that or not? The link you just provide counters your argument.; You should ask for it to be deleted.

The link supports my statement by saying it is not impossible for something to spring up later. It does not counter my argument, because I never claimed it was likely. 

You left out the word “new” when quoting what I said. The newness aspect is covered in the article and can be inferred in the same manner. 

If you think that my words could be misconstrued to someone as implying that is is likely, then I am more than happy to amend.

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

You claimed it was a reality that every vaccine may have long term effects. Link to any evidence that may be true.

I didn’t say it was likely, but it is not impossible.
 

“The concerns that something will spring up later with the COVID-19 vaccines are not impossible, but based on what we know, they aren’t likely,” adds Miles Braun, adjunct professor of medicine at the Georgetown University School of Medicine and the former director of the division of epidemiology at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/vaccines-are-highly-unlikely-to-cause-side-effects-long-after-getting-the-shot-

19 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

To the best of my knowledge, the general pattern with vaccines historically is that any resulting side effects have tended to occur in the relatively near term after vaccination....  And that history really doesn't support the notion or fear that some totally unknown and unidentified vaccine side effect is suddenly going to surface years later.

 

See the following, as just one example of the medical community's knowledge on this:

 

"Unlike many medications, which are taken daily, vaccines are generally one-and-done. Medicines you take every day can cause side effects that reveal themselves over time, including long-term problems as levels of the drug build up in the body over months and years. 

 

“Vaccines are just designed to deliver a payload and then are quickly eliminated by the body,” Goepfert said. “This is particularly true of the mRNA vaccines. mRNA degrades incredibly rapidly. You wouldn’t expect any of these vaccines to have any long-term side effects.”

 

--Paul Goepfert, M.D., director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinic at the University of Alabama at Birmingham

 

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines

 

 

 

I don’t disagree with this. I certainly wouldn’t have taken the vaccine myself if I thought otherwise.

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

"This is true of any new vaccine, it is just the reality.  "

Misinformation suggests incorrect information. I did not state that there was or was not any long-term side effects, only that we can never know what will happen in the future with 100% certainty until more years have past and we have the data to prove it. 

13 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Stop spreading misinformation unless you can link to evidence. It's against the rules.

What misinformation?

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Those reports later rescinded as a probable false alarm:

 

Does Pfizer’s COVID-19 booster increase stroke risk? ‘Very unlikely,’ agencies say

 

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that one of their databases warned of the possibility that the Pfizer bivalent COVID-19 booster could be linked to an increased risk of stroke in people aged 65 and older.

• The agencies investigated that warning and did not find evidence to confirm the risk.

 

"The CDC and FDA announced their investigation in a Jan. 13 press release. The agencies said a "preliminary safety signal" was identified for people 65 and older, but their investigation found "it is very unlikely that the signal … represents a true clinical risk." 

 

(more)

 

https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jan/18/does-pfizers-covid-19-booster-increase-stroke-risk/

 

Hopefully that is right and holds true.
 

Our long time domestic helper who was only 47 had a stroke within a year of getting vaccinated with Pfizer. Was it a contributing factor? Of course nobody can know for sure, but nobody is checking or connecting any dots either.

The rest of my family got 3 x Pfizer and had no issues, but TBH we will only know the long-term consequences (if there are any) later in life. This is true of any new vaccine, it is just the reality. 

Fiscal conservatism seems non-existent on both sides of the aisle. 

I’ve always wondered… what happens to all the money that should be saved when pulling out of Afghanistan for example - - or was that just a rounding error on?

Interactive Brokers seems to be the lowest cost and most popular platform here in Singapore. They have multiple ways to transfer securities from other brokers. 
 

For tax reasons, non-US persons in Singapore generally prefer LSE traded ETFs, such as ISAC and VRWA which are very low cost and highly diversified. 

Official information about vaccinations for non-residents can be found here:

https://www.vaccine.gov.sg/locations/pvp/
 

To avoid disappointment, you should contact the individual clinics to confirm if they actually have stock of the bivalent vaccine. 
 

Suggest reading up on the latest potential risks of the bivalent vaccine, there seems to be some concerns about higher risk of stroke.