
Jedi888
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Moodys is being nice, and conservative on this one. When the trad deal is done with Trump within the next 2.5 months, that is the next SHOE TO DROP. We are on 90 day pause. Either Thailand opens up to US products fair, or faces reciprocity. No matter what, Thailand is going to eat it or eat something. If Th does not open up and follow Trumps rules, that second shoe is going to burn a hole in the Bahts pocket, exports etc. Moody's is not stupid, they see the writing on the wall. And so do I. We are in a domino fall now, it's just getting going...
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Immigration Thai PM Tackles Overstaying Tourists with Visa-Free Scheme Revamp
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Thai politics "WE NEED MORE TOURISTS AND MORE MOONNNIIEEYYYYYY". GOV: OK lets double the visa free from 30 to 60 and offer 5 years visas.. Immigration: OOOooiiiiiii farang work make a moneeyyyyyyyyy, no no cannot krub. mai deeeee. MAKE UP YOUR MINDS. YOU CANT HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT IT TOO, OII. -
Report Thailand Eyes European Tourists Amid Asian Visitor Decline
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Look at the source of the pyramid here, the top of the waterfall... the real time collapse of Shanghai... this will spread regionwide . TH will take a bite out of its apple as well with less exports. -
Report Thailand Eyes European Tourists Amid Asian Visitor Decline
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
I already explained it. Further, only true rich got big money. It depends what demo group you talking about. Lots of people flash but got debt. Asia is on the tail end of "boom" and bust is upon us. Its already starting big in China with huge numbers of people listing their property to sell. Its all gonna be dominoes, you just wait. Go study some economics. I'm not your free tutor . -
Report Thailand Eyes European Tourists Amid Asian Visitor Decline
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
You don't have a clue. -
Travel Thailand's Aviation Sector Soars with FAA's Category 1 Safety Upgrade
Jedi888 replied to snoop1130's topic in Thailand News
Just in time for tariffs to reduce consumer spending in the region. That better break out something good to bus in Americans/ North American sourced flights as overall econ is stagnating. Will Thai bust out the old 747s? Oh some nice nostalgia. -
Report Thailand Eyes European Tourists Amid Asian Visitor Decline
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
MOT is pretty clueless in terms of DISPOSABLE income of countries' citizens. All that hu-rah over bringing in Chinese as some kind of staple of grandeur spenders as good tourists for Thailand is a complete fallacy, for many reasons. I'll prove it. Chinese are not rich like the facade seems to make people believe in TH or at the MOT. Gross capita is around $12000 a year. Also they are frugal as hell. They dont spend much. Other than true wealthy Chinese. Those are 6% of the population. In past years, MOT and local business was seething at getting "all those richly Chinese" to come in and spend. Its a paper tiger folks! Covid busted people left and right, destroyed capital and disposable income and vaxxes killed lots and maimed a bunch more globally. They aint gonna be travellin folks. Chinese tourism to TH. It's already been in the news the numbers are down. Either post covid cash strapped, Chinese being bitchy about whatever it was they were complaining about regarding TH or blah blah so they they went to Malaysia or some crap... but wait the tariff economic cascade effects to not only China but also to Thailand's factory and export section is JUST GETTING STARTED! That effect has barely started! So NOW-- Chinese in general, Mis YangYang and her tour group gang got no extra cash to travel for fun. There are millions of them off the table. A big vacuum of lost revenue for many areas of the tourism industry, from flights, hotel, transport, shopping, food. I read we are looking at Cn unemployed at 200 million people. The MOT thinking Chinese are a great goose for tourism are HIGHLY ignorant and just DELUSIONAL. Now with the US going back to big business and re-shoring... in the next decade it's going to be AMERCIANS who will be doing the travel. Starting learning English Mr. Somchai, and drop your mandarine classes. An economic earthquake just hit and aftershocks are a commin. Cycles of economic downturn. I.e. 1997, 2008-09, 2020-2022, and now we are in an economic war/shakeup. Just when people were getting cocky recently thinking they were making ground and rebounding income after covid, tourists coming in etc. are gonna get smacked in the face now with this. Asia is not done with a beating. 2023-now was the "dead cat bounce". Now the second shoe drops! Tarrifs on china now are causing so much damage and domino effect(already), downline it's going to burn a hole into the Chinas economy to the tune of around 800 billion $ a year. Thats how much money is MISSING from GDP. Waves of sweatshop bankruptcies are coming. Real estate will get the second shoe-drop kick in due time. This is a must see report on consumer spending in China. You will see the country is a paper dragon and still a commie dump with low consumer spending. Now if you pay close attention, you will see domino like effects which will hit their local econ, travelers, and also Asia as a whole because Asia is coupled allot. TH has lots of factories these days and you bet a huge hole is going to be burned in TH's pockets, which hits: spending, loans, mortgages, car loans, credit, capital, disposal spending, outdoor dining (already happening and we are just getting started with this second shoe to drop!), and as a whole, discretionary TRAVEL, REGIONWIDE. The post covid recovery is in essence a "dead cat bounce" look and feel. What is that? See attached, it's a phenomena which shows up on asset charts. It's a trap. a whipsaw. Economies can be put on charts and formations used to predict the future. IF YOU ARE EXPOSED TO THE CHINA MARKET IN ANYWAY, BRACE FOR IMPACT... or be the latest dumb money statistic. If you understand business economics, you will understand the cascade effect. I am watching the Hong Kong real estate market closely. This will be a doozy to watch as it comes apart at the seems as post covid second-shoe drop kick in the a$$ is upon HK. HK is full of smart ass mainlanders that buy property, keep them empty or rent them out. They think they are so cool and smart moving their capital there through the "real estate laundry" trick. "I so cool! I own property apartment Hong Kong! I so rich! I so statusly man! ha ha!!!" Now that capital markets are going to get squeezed, business supply down-line chains going to get strained, you bet these smartasses in property are going to have to liquidate to free up cash. Worldwide btw. If capital markets get choked hard, and interest rates rise, oh sh*t, brace yourself. Distressed property sales in Hong Kong now were 40% of sales in Q4 of 2024! Wait, and we are not yet into the beginning of the tariff war bro... HK rent rates are down now to 2016 levels... next stop on the chart for rents? 2008-09 prices! Property smartasses are going to have it handed to them region wide! If tariffs in Cambodia and Viet continue this high, they are in for a big economic wide burned pocket hole too. Then there is a 3rd generation effect on top of the above 1st and 2nd gen/wave effect, the region as a whole will have general economic over all effect downturn. Less money circulating. A big giant vacuum sound. Banks. With a huge amount of capital NOT flowing around in Asia, 800Bil is going to go missing a year just from China--- which start at the top of the pyramid which is China factory and exports businesses/sectors, cash and capital is going to go away like low tide. But wait, there's more folks. If you add in any other Asia countries for which the Trump tariffs will STILL APPLY due to NO DEAL in about 80 days from now, OR, if the TARIFFS ON THOSE NATIONS GO UP MORE, due to their attitude toward Washington, or retaliation (like Cn did), an exasperation effect occurs. Brace for impact! Chinas 800B hole + any other brat in Asia who does not conform will have their tariffs raise or hold the same, now the billions of $ of lost income from those, now have a whole new effect on the entire Asia coupled economy.. we are going to go north of 1 trillion a year is lost cash revenues spanning multiple industries, sectors blah blah, WHICH ALL HAVE THEIR OWN CASCADE EFFECTS INTO THEIR ECONOMIES. Are you seeing the profound web dominoes now? Who in Asia is going to have tariffs and how much. Then see the total lost revenues, in the trillions of USD, then calculate your low tide from there, then cover yourself from exposure. Boats will sit on the sea floor. That means, banks who have allot of loans, investments and dumb-money moves-- etc. are at risk! If they are over leveraged they can fail. Or they get bailed out with money printing and inflation skyrockets. I'm talking here in TH. The release value has to be something. Will BOT bail out a bunch of dumb ass money- banks?? This concept applies to most export driven countries in Asia. So watch out. Interest rates. If banks get low on capital what do they do? Have to raise rates to get more cash liquidity. Whats the effect of that? Good for investors, but BAD for businesses who need loans and consumer spending, real estate etc. THAT will cause deflation and asset prices to go down. Release valve has to come from somewhere... In 1997 the baht hit 55.8. 114% devaluation. It took time and work to dig out from under it. See chart attached. When things pop, they really pop. Now in TH, there are many many many more real estate owners, projects, businesses which use debt to expand, and a bunch of other smartass dumb money moguls which do not make contingency plans for storms. Look below. Did Thailand ever recover from 1997 in baht valuation terms? No. Baht was strong at 24, now it's still down, at 33. It never recovered purchasing power. As of today, baht is down 27.49% from 1997. Imagine... 28 years later and your savings is still down 27.5 %. In dollar terms, for what's that worth. But in terms of GOLD since 1997, baht is down. So in real terms that matter, gold, from 97 you are down 90%. SO-- in real gold terms, Thai's have lost wealth at 3.214% per year since- on average. Thailand is getting poorer by that amount yearly. If they had gold there would be no loss. "cash is trash" as Grant Cardon says. And finally, with these holes burned into many people's and businesses pockets, and profit margins, we are going to see waves of bankruptcies by facade businesses which are thin margin-ed, and run by idiots who have no "economic weatherproofing". in crude terms- called dumb money. Think of some smartass uneducated 24 year old Chinese women or Thai girl who thinks they are amazing business owners when they dont know squat about real economics, business, tariffs, foreign policy, currencies, etc and cascading effect tidal waves heading for them now. Watch the movie The Big Short and see that even in banking, there is still lots of dumb money amongst "professionals" on Wall Street. Tell me how Jane/Joe Doe with her mid level business in Bangkok, or some 2nd tier business in any Asia city, who does not understand economics is going to weather the storm, rising interest rates, breaking suppliers, defaulting invoices (post credit pay) etc. is going to bail water when holes are popping up all over in supply chains, sales demand and all things considered. Taksin was right recently, 1997 is a tsunami and it's headed for us now. Question is, can you hit the exit before a stampede? When Thai's decide to sell their second Bangkok condo because "I hab no minnneyyy" 'its do late. real estate will have falling sales prices. It was already falling in 2017. How many more NEW condos hit the market since then? Supply is going higher diluting the older condo units' values already-. Defaults on loans will skyrocket in due time. Think dominos. Even rents will come down. Anyone investing the past 2 years are suckers and have been tricked by the dead cat bounce and are about to get "whipsawed" as they say on Wall Street. Currency swings. Dont let the dead cat bounce in the Thai Baht now fool you! If there is no amazing deal with Trump for tariffs and Thailand opening their markets FAIR to the US, all bets are off. Baht will go to 36-40 for a warm up set. Baht is creating a giant triangle, and at the apex it blows up or down. Seeing macro trends and fundamentals here, baht is likely not going to rise against the dollar. What more investments from factories are going to come to Thailand this decade to offshore? Maybe Japanese. But the yen has gone down so much, Jpn's cant do much intl expansion as is so much more expensive for them now to covert yen to other currencies. See attachment. Offshoring to Asia is going to slow. Baht price target for a triangle break out at apex is 42.7/USD, a technical analysis. -
China's Zero-Dollar Trade Sparks Thailand's Economic Woes
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
So China manufacturers are scrambling to REROUTE all their junk to NEW dumping grounds. As that same crap now costs 2.5X in the US. US is the worlds biggest consumer at 39% of world. Imagine a hole being burned into chinas economy for the tune of 30-35% for a minute. Right now in Th business are struggling due to Temu et al dumping cheap goods here. It will get amped up. Plus we see declines in restaurant outings, China tourists, tourists in general. Even Shanghai is struggling with consumers. Asia is now reentering 1997. Lots of consumers are dead or maimed from the convid1984 death jab so they aint traveling! 20Mil dead, probably 40-60 mil health related injuries. There are stats to go look it up. -
Thai Tourism Grapples with Declining Chinese Visitors
Jedi888 replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Yaaay. Why? Heres a book about why https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18169567-pigs-on-the-loose -
Thailand Faces Backlash Over Secret Uyghur Deportation to China
Jedi888 replied to snoop1130's topic in Thailand News
Oh boy this one is a doozy. Not gonna go well. Those people can be killed and organ harvested, yes really. Whats next? They gonna deport the Iranians at IDC back to Iran to face their persecutions too? There are multiple asylum refugees in Thailand, including I heard a Chinese guy at IDC shows been there like 14 years or some shyt... He next? Thailand is real good at kicking people out of the country on whims, or based on the politicking at the time. -
Hes also wanted to be sued for a company scam in 2011 embezzling funds and gross negligence. Apparently he turned into a sex trafficker and smooth criminal. If you got TIP contacts have them run the name. Would be great to get some journalists on this.. but since there are many crimes and cases ongoing daily in Thailand, not all get a fancy article in the Bangkok post ya know. .. Which then get pasted here. We probably see a few % of these cases in the news. He sue any slanderers from prison.