realfunster

For the week ending 25 December, Omicron was 58.6%, by now will probably be 80%+. Other countries have seen around 4-6 weeks from Omicron patient zero to see Delta more or less 100% out-competed. There is a lot of data from other countries (UK/NL/ZA) contrary to the high hospitalizations in the US, as is prudent when in the middle of battle, I keep an open mind on this but also consider that the private (please come into hospital) vs public (go home and ride it out unless serious symptoms) healthcare systems may have some impact.

Hyperbole.

I am not a statistician but let’s use the one of the most infected Omicron countries with reliable data as an example. UK delta case peak : 60,000 UK delta death peak : 1,700 UK omicron case peak : 200,000 (3.3x delta) UK omicron death peak : 400 (0.23x delta) (I note it could still go up due to lead time) Thailand delta case peak : 20,000 Thailand delta death peak : 300 Thailand projected omicron case peak : 66,000 (doubtful Thailand will be doing enough tests to record this many +ves.) Thailand projected omicron death peak : 71 (note deaths with a +ve Omicron test, as it so prevalent an increasing proportion of these numbers will be co-incidental and not a cause.) We know testing is limited and erratic in Thailand and deaths are the more reliable metric. To be adjusted +/- for other local factors - vaccination rates, types of vaccines, social restrictions & effectiveness etc. So, likely their first two proposals of 50 & 100 daily deaths respectively, are in the ball park.

Maybe I am misunderstanding your comment but they hit 300 daily deaths in August last year.

Agree with some of your points, although I do feel enough data is out there already from South Africa, UK & US that indicates it is clearly significantly milder, and the UK has just reduced self-isolation to 5 days, having apparently passed its Omicron peak around 6 weeks into the wave. Where some people struggle with their logic is thereby deducing we should simply forget about any restrictions on this basis. Due to the rate and sheer volume of spread it is still prudent to attempt to slow down the wave to some extent to protect health services. It is already in Thailand, it is spreading and I estimate that we will see a huge rise in cases through until the end of February. That’s not a bad thing as Omicron will push out Delta (as already seen in other countries) and significant community immunity will be achieved.

I don’t think so, a quick Google found me an article in the NY Post from 30/12 stating it is not WHO approved. Also the following interesting quote from NY Post : “Skepticism of the vaccine’s effectiveness resulted in low demand in Taiwan. About 80 percent of island residents are now vaccinated, with most receiving US-approved Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or the WHO-approved AstraZeneca vaccine.”

Be fair, most Thais work damn hard during their careers, well deserving of a break at 55… Anyway, not sure to what exactly the article is referring to (appears to be only the state social security pension fund), but the Statutory retirement age is actually 60 in Thailand and private companies have the flexibility to shorten or lengthen this in their working policies manual.

Good grief. Spanish flu 1918-19 Great depression 1929 WW2 1939 I suppose Spanish flu was also to blame for the Tsumami of 2004 and the GFC in 2009?

New Laos-China high-speed rail offers Thailand excellent freight opportunities…to buy Chinese goods. Be careful what you wish for Thailand…

Thanks mate, I needed a good laugh ???? As you apparently are not aware, please read some news reports from Europe or US today, it will save you the bother of reading Dr Yong’s ‘pronouncements of wisdom’ in around 2-3 weeks time.

The response from his camp and supporters reminds me of the childish & xenophobic response I might have expected a little closer to home If you wonder where Novak gets his outlook from, below is an interesting insight... Srdjan Djokovic (father) said the decision was an attack on Serbia and its people. "They're keeping him in captivity," he said during a news conference at his restaurant named after his son in the Serbian capital Belgrade on Thursday. "They're stomping all over Novak to stomp all over Serbia and Serbian people." "Morrison and his like have dared attack Novak to bring Serbia to its knees," Mr Djokovic said. 'I have no idea what's going on, they're holding my son captive for five hours,' he said. 'This is not a fight for the libertarian world, this is not just a fight for Novak, but a fight for the whole world!' he said. 'If they don't let him go in half an hour, we will gather on the street, this is a fight for everybody.' But Srdjan said: “This has nothing to do with sports, this is a political agenda. Novak is the best player and the best athlete in the world, but several hundred million people from the west can’t stomach that.” “Jesus was crucified and endured many things but is still alive among us. Novak is also crucified... the best sportsman and man in the world. He will endure.” The Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, posted on Instagram that he had “told our Novak that the whole of Serbia is with him and [we] are doing everything to see the harassment of the world’s best tennis player is brought to an end. In line with all norms of international law, Serbia will fight for Novak, truth and justice.”

The phrase you are looking for is 'clickbait'.

Oh you are awful ! It's not that bad.

I wonder what the figures were for Bangkok, I can imagine a similar exodus.

Disagree. UK is now 5 weeks into their Omicron wave and is surviving OK. Case numbers are astronomical, hospitalisations are on the up but deaths remain static with the previous 6 months. There is already large amount of peer-reviewed lab work indicating that Omicron is significantly less severe than Delta and vaccinations (via T cells, rather than antibodies) work reasonably effectively. Thailand will be similar. Keep calm & carry on.

Firstly, may I highlight I am not a lockdown 'fanatic' but this is the first point I would like to mention, use of polarising language against those with opposing views. Very common these days I know...I can't seriously believe that there isn't anyone who wouldn't much rather be living carefree as per the pre-COVID environment. Unfortunately, we have to deal with the cards we have been dealt. Secondly, I don't think anyone has ever thought that implemented measures are going to 'control the virus', I believe the intention of governments worldwide in implementing social restrictions has been to slow down or minimise as much as possible the rate of spread. Increasing evidence suggests that Omicron is significantly milder than Delta but offset with higher transmissibility which still has the capacity to over-stretch health systems. Hopefully, due to this mildness, this will lead to less onerous restrictions ultimately being applied in Thailand, as per the UK for example. That said, UK is fairly well ahead of Thailand in terms of vaccinations delivered... Finally, 'how and when does this end?' - your guess is as good as mine. Likely when people stop dying in numbers and health systems are not being overwhelmed ? How do we get there ? Vaccinations appear to be a good start and hopefully in the medium term Omicron may actually be a blessing that helps us achieve community immunity. (Herd immunity is old-hat I hear..) Keep calm & carry on.

Yes, the usual pathetic blaming of outsiders and lack of responsibility. Having done a couple of trips ‘up-country’ over the holiday period, I can tell you burning is going on quite actively in Thailand ! I like to change my air vents to outside from re-circulate when out of Bangkok, quite often you can’t even see the fires but the smell of rancid smoke hits you in the car.

Thailand 2009 passenger movements : international 31m + domestic 20m = 50 million. Thailand 2019 passenger movements : international 86m + domestic 57m = 143 million. 200 million by 2031 not a ridiculous projection in my view