tlock

That looks good!  Any other places that don't require a reservation would be appreciated.  

5 hours ago, rabas said:

Clearly something is going on, but deaths are not rising yet.  Many second waves in the EU are starting with younger people.

 

 

I have noticed this, and am closely monitoring the daily death rate.  It does look like Sweden didn't achieve "herd immunity".  I realize there is a 2-4 week window after spikes to see mortality, but if cases spike but the death rate remains relatively unchanged, that would indicate either the virus is weakening or our treatments are becoming more efficacious.  

Or letting the young and healthy get infected is a reasonable approach.  

I know we're all going in circles, but do people really think there is no health cost to the massive economic damage we're causing?  Is this just about inconvenience vs. granny killing? 

I've already posted this, but I know people love sources.  Regarding the Spanish Flu second wave:

The severity of the second wave has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.^[82] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials look for deadlier strains of a virus when it reaches places with social upheaval.^[83] The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave.^[84] For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – adults who were young and fit.^[85]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Quote

In fact I would say that, unless there's something I've missed in my reading on this, there's never been any highly infectious disease that has been brought under control by naturally-acquired herd immunity. The only way this has ever been achieved is by vaccination, as far as I'm aware. If I'm mistaken and anyone knows any different, perhaps they could enlighten me.

I was specifically referring to the above question, that sometimes highly infections diseases go away without a vaccine.  The Spanish Flu virus spread and eventually weakened to the point that is still with us today but nowhere close to being as deadly as it once was.  Nature has other ways of lessening the mortality of viruses than vaccines.

On 10/31/2020 at 10:20 PM, GroveHillWanderer said:

This is very true. In fact I would say that, unless there's something I've missed in my reading on this, there's never been any highly infectious disease that has been brought under control by naturally-acquired herd immunity. The only way this has ever been achieved is by vaccination, as far as I'm aware. If I'm mistaken and anyone knows any different, perhaps they could enlighten me.

 

So it's always puzzled me that so many people seem to set such great store by the idea of herd immunity from CoVid-19 through natural infection, when it's normally only achieved by vaccination.

Maybe herd immunity is the wrong word.  "Letting nature run it's course" seems more appropriate.  Obviously the body count was incredible, but I believe the Spanish Flu eventually burned out without a vaccine? 

I just can't see my grandfather's generation cowering in their homes, letting the world come to a stop and main street dying over something with the IFR of covid-19.  They would have sent out the young to keep the world running and protected the at-risk.  

This is not the first pandemic to strike humanity, I am unaware of any other pandemic where the top minds decided the solution was for everyone to just stay in their homes and wait for a vaccine.  That position is the odd one IMO, not the people who think the lockdown approach is causing more damage than the disease.

I think one thing people tend to overlook when putting down the Swedish approach is, for the most part life went on as normal.  So even if their economy tanks along with the rest of the world, is there zero value in the fact that children mostly got to go to school, people got to go to gyms, no one was restricted to their homes by the police?  I think this is the "if it saves one life" argument, that even if millions of people don't get to go to school or exercise, it's worth it?  

However, in the interest of honest discussion, I am surprised to see that Sweden is getting a new spike right now worse than in April (along with the rest of the world).  I had hoped the open approach would lead to some level of herd immunity.  Unfortunately, it looks like not enough people caught it in Sweden during the first wave.  

38 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

NZ has no community transfer but only because the border is closed to most and any legitimate arrivals must quarantine 14 days. Should the border open fully the second wave will occur as not many have any immunity.

Interesting, I believe you are in NZ correct?  Are bars and clubs, etc. open?  Are large gatherings permitted (concerts, etc.)?  Are there any remnants of social distancing, masks, etc?  I'm trying to determine if anywhere in the world is 100% open at this point.

This chart looks pretty good.  Daily deaths are way down in Sweden, it looks like they are out of the woods now. 

Are any of the countries that were successful containing the virus completely open yet?  Honest question- has South Korea, New Zealand, etc. opened the bars and clubs and successfully gotten back to normal yet?  I saw that Australia just implemented another 6 week lockdown, so I guess they aren't out of the woods yet. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

7 minutes ago, redwood1 said:

Yes we have a lot to look forward too I can hardly wait to get microchipped ......Freedom is so old fashion.....Being watched 24/7 is the new cool..... 

like I always say- if you can't beat em- join em.

safety first!

Yeah I find this annoying as well.  Foodland is good about bagging, they usually have an extra bagger at each checkout.  At Big C Extra I just refuse to pay until I've finished bagging my groceries, they usually chip in and help after a minute or so, heh.

On 5/18/2020 at 9:41 PM, Rancid said:

It gets better, some respected computer code experts have now looked at the models and how they were coded. They say it was completely wrong and gives unpredictable responses. As such he'll probably get a knighthood.

They refuse to publish the original code that predicted the models.  They hired microsoft engineers to re-write the code in C++ and that's what they published.  I would have expected that it is a normal part of peer reviewed science to publish the exact code used  for the study, not a re-write.

23 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

The Chinese spokesman last week mocked the USA and said that if China had 90,000 deaths the Chinese would riot and kick the government out, demanding a change to the entire system of government there. He was right.

This sounds interesting- do you have a link?  Not disputing the veracity, just interested to see what he said.

I certainly think it's possible that different government styles are better/worse fits for different cultures.  I consider myself brainwashed that freedom and democracy are fundamental values, but I acknowledge that I had that drilled into me since youth by my public education system.

I could be wrong- but I suspect that the majority of Thais that agree with the professor were likely educated in the West.

1 minute ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

According to CNBC, Sweden's economy looks to be worse off than many other European countries, including its neighbours:

 

Sweden's death rate and economy worse than neighbours

 

As the article points out, its death rate per capita also surpasses its neighbours, a point reinforced more recently by the following piece, which shows Sweden's 7-day rolling average of deaths per capita now exceeds every other country in the world:

 

Sweden's death toll becomes highest in world

 

 

I think to see the full picture we would also need to see the changes in unemployment rate as well as the percentage of those economies that depend on exports vs. domestic consumption.

Yeah this is huge- those numbers get added to the all important coronavirus daily scoreboard.  I think once we do large scale serology testing we'll see that the number of infections were at least an order of magnitude higher.  Adding those numbers to the daily scoreboard of new cases is incredibly misleading.  

“I want to be able to say to the people of New York — I did everything we could do,” Cuomo told reporters at the state Capitol. “And if everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy.”

9 minutes ago, farang51 said:

To those arguing against a lockdown because it hurt the economy, read this:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf

The link is to a scientific paper that compares the effect on consumer spending in Sweden and Denmark from March 11th to April 5th. In Sweden, consumers spend 25 per cent less than last year. In Denmark, consumers spend 29 per cent less. This demonstrates that you do not have a choice of a lockdown or a normal economy.

Of course, we do not know the full effect on the economy for some time, but it seems that Sweden is paying a high price in human lifes for a somewhat smaller contraction in spending.

At this point I think the arguments are about what to do next time.  I agree that at this point we have locked down, lost millions of jobs, and most places are re-opening.  And I agree that even after re-opening we are unlikely to see the V-shaped recovery, we can't just "un-scare" everyone.  

And because currently we have a more or less global economy, individual countries decisions make less of an impact depending on their overall contribution to the world economy.  Meaning if only the US and China shut down, everyone's economies would suffer.  

I guess I consider it a discussion more than an argument...

40 minutes ago, Sujo said:

True, they value it over everything whilst other countries understand that sometimes the greater good is to limit some freedoms to save lives.

 

Hows all the winning.

I think part of the general argument is which is for the greater good, saving more lives now weighed against the collateral damage of the lockdown and subsequent "new normal".  Internet memes notwithstanding, I don't think many people that are against the lockdown approach are nearly as selfish as the opposition wants to portray.  

My bad on HK.

1 minute ago, Sujo said:

True, they value it over everything whilst other countries understand that sometimes the greater good is to limit some freedoms to save lives.

 

Hows all the winning.

Give us time.  I think the generation that is children now will learn to value the greater good over individual freedoms.

Just now, vermin on arrival said:

So have South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong which did not involve lockdowns. Seems there are many ways for things to work.

Agreed- different situations seem to require different solutions.  It certainly appears that island nations (other than SK those all seem to be islands) are able to efficiently contain this virus.