Humanoid

11 minutes ago, chalawaan said:

Where do you want us to send the flowers?

Send them to R01AI110964

Thanks!

1 minute ago, robblok said:

I used the equasion as a tool to explain the faster spread. Not to match a graph because anyone with half a brain knows this is impossible because of many outside factors.

If it's "impossible" to match the graph, then how do you know that your "delta" explanation is correct?

"well it gives bigger numbers"... yeah it gives bigger numbers, but how much bigger.  And how much bigger is that bulge in the data?  It's just a 2x slope.  You can't say that since this is bigger and that is also bigger, so that's proves it's the correct explanation.  You need something much more quantitative than that.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Your simplistic ‘match the math to the graph’ ignores all the other influences on transmission of the virus: 

I'm not the one who posted the 2^x and 4^x sequences.  I'm not saying that those are the correct equations.  I'm just showing that those equations DON'T match the data.  And are therefore incorrect equations.

I'm not the one ignoring the other influences.  It is your equations that are ignoring the other influences.

In fact, all the equations posted here to explain the Delta explanation, have a zero match with the data.

If your equations don't match the data, then they are not correct explanations.

If you have a correct equation, go ahead and post it.  And let's see if it matches the data.

For those who are considering the 2^x and 4^x sequences that were posted by robblok as a valid explanation.  Just take any graphing calculator, for example here:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator

On the top left box, enter y = 2^x and then in the 2nd box below it, enter y = 4^x.  The x will appear in superscript as you type it.  You will see 2 graphs drawn on the right.  At x = 0, you will see y = 1 for both representing 1 you know what.  At x = 1, you will see the graphs go to 2 and 4, and at x = 2, you will see them go to 4 and 16.  These are the 2 sequences that robblok gave as an explanation for the graph that I posted earlier, which has been deleted by a moderator.

Now try to match up those 2 graphs with the other graph that he claims these are a valid explanation for.  If he is correct, the 4^x graph should be matched up with that thing seen in 2021, while the 2^x graph should be matched up with things seen earlier.

You can even try stretching the graphs horizontally by replacing x with something like x/10.  Zoom in.  Zoom out.  See if you can find anything that matches.

If you know what a derivative is, you can also take the derivative of both equations if you think that changes anything.

You can also try modifying the equations to make them more realistic to account for real life behaviour.

I have my own alternative idea to all this, however, it is believed by others to be a lie.  And lies are not allowed to be mentioned on this forum.  So I will not mention what my alternative idea is.

To be clear to the moderators.  I have zero intention of breaking any of the forum rules here.  I hope that what I wrote above, which is mostly about math, does not violate any of the rules here.  I'm being very careful about what I write.

Maybe I should stop posting in this thread altogether.  I'm afraid I might get banned from the forum if I accidentally misspeak in some way.  I think a lot of people already hate me for having alternative ideas.

Silenced Humanoid

For those considering that the giant spikes shown in the Thailand graph above are due to a new variant.  Remember that Delta is only about twice as infectious as the previous one.  Does that graph look like the work of a virus that is only twice as infectious as the previous one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2

Look in the table where it says +97%.  Then look again at the Thailand graph I posted earlier.  It's not too hard to make a good guess.

What makes you guys think you know what's on that website?  I was curious about the website, so I asked the OP to email me the url of the website in question.  I looked at the website.  It's just a picture of a monkey sucking on a banana with a caption that says "liamsender sucks" (not my words, I'm just quoting from the highly offensive website).  It was clearly made by one of his friends.

This whole thread is hilarious.  

Seagate will be trembling with fear! 

thaimite: Yup.  Backing up is very important.  At the time that the drive broke, I was actually looking at prices for drives, because I was just about to buy a backup drive when the drive broke!  Talk about really unlucky timing!

keeniau96: Thanks for the suggestion.  I contacted Greg.  Unfortunately he doesn't have the exact model I'm looking for, but only one that is very close.  However, he did give me some good tips that will help me with my quest to recover my data!

NHJ: Don't worry about it.  On my particular model, when the heads are parked, there isn't even any room in between at all, because the heads are actually touching the platters.  The spaces between the heads and platters are only created when the platters are spinning fast enough, causing the air being dragged to push the heads away.

jackdanielsesq: Seagate does not offer recovery services for free.  Since my drive is still under warranty, they are willing to give me a free replacement drive.  But for recovering the data for the kind of problem my drive has, they will charge thousands of dollars.

I bought 500 gig Seagate ES drive 2 years ago at pantip, specifically from busitek.  This is the "enterprise" drive, not the "desktop" drive like 7200.11 or 7200.12.

There are 3 platters and 6 heads inside the drive, and one of the heads on my drive has become defective.  I can no longer access my data because of the defective head, and the firmware is also buggy and has trouble dealing with the issue, making it difficult to access the remaining heads.  I need to do some tests to create a map from user lba to physical chs addresses so that I can recover the data from the other 5 working heads, and then do a transplant operation of the head assembly from a donor drive to recover the data on the remaining platter side that is being accessed by the defective head.

My problem is that I cannot find a donor drive.  One guy was auctioning a suitable donor drive on a thai auction site, but after I started bidding, he said his friend took the drive and decided to cancel the auction.  I've tried emailing several people who had won such a drive in an past auction, in hopes that they would sell me their drive, but they all say they don't have the drive anymore.  I've looked all over pantip, and other malls, meticulously looking in every tiny shop there was.  Either they sell new drives, in which case they don't have this old model, or they sell used drives which are more than 5 years old.  I've been monitoring ebay for a quite a while, and all the drives that appear there of the same model, have a very different part number (submodel).  It seems my best chance to find a drive with the same part number is right here in thailand.  It would have probably come from the exact same distribution batch, and would've been sold at around the same time as I bought mine, which is about 2 years from now.  I only found one guy currently selling the correct model, but the part number (submodel) is just a little bit off.  Mine is -302, and his is -303, which is unsuitable for surgery.

My drive itself is a 500 GB Seagate ES drive.  The model number is "ST3500630NS", the P/N is "9BL146-302", and the firmware is "3.AEG".  You can find these 3 pieces of information on the sticker on the drive itself.

I understand that it is a big hassle to copy all your data off the drive, open up your drive, exchange the drive, and all that.  But if you have the exact model I'm looking for, I would really appreciate it if you would sell it to me, or exchange it for a brand new one.  I can pay for a completely new drive of a later model, and bigger size, so that you get to replace your aging 2 year old drive with a better brand new model.

So if you're in bangkok and have such a drive, ST3500630NS, P/N 9BL146-302, firmware 3.AEG, please contact me through this board.  Thanks a lot!!!

Getting to Pailin should be easy. But the crossing near pailin is "phsa prom", which goes to "ban pakard" on the thai side, not "ban laem". Are you sure I'm supposed to go from battambang city to pailin before getting to daung? It really looks like a long detour to go to pailin first. Check out this map:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&...931091&z=10

Battambang city is on the right hand side along road 5, where it makes a T-intersection with another marked road. If you follow the marked southwest road from that T-intersection, it will lead to pailin, and then to ban pakard, thailand. But if you go north from battambang along route 5 for about 12 km, you will see another clearly visible (but unmarked) road going west. If you follow this road to the west, it eventually gets to a fork approximately aligned above pailin with 2 roads to choose from. If you take the lower road, I believe this one eventually reaches daung. This is the road I believe I should take, if there is a bus that goes this way.

I can see there is a very small road from pailin to daung, but I heard it's like 2 hours, and I'd have to take a motorbike. It's also clear from the map that this road is much smaller than the one I described in the previous paragraph.

I'll try to take the bigger road from battambang straight to daung first. If I cannot find a bus that takes this road, then I guess I'll just take the longer detour through pailin, costing an extra 2 hours.

I found the khmer script for kamrieng district. I think I'm much more likely to find a bus sign that says it's going to kamrieng district, than to daung village. Here is the khmer script for kamrieng district:

ស្រុក​ កំរៀង = srok kom riang

The first word is srok which means district, which I guess might be omitted on bus signs.

I found it in these two wikipedia pages:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battambang_Province

http://km.wikipedia.org/wiki/ខេ...;បង

I hope it'll suffice!

I will be in battambang, and I want to get to thailand, using the 30 day visa-exempt stamp, without an airplane ticket.  Apparently, I can only do this at the Ban Laem, Chantaburi, crossing, by buying a 200 baht bus ticket.

My question is, how do I get from battambang city to the crossing point?

I've figured this out so far...  On the cambodian side, the province is battambang.  The district is kamrieng.  And the village is "daung" / "daung lem" / "daun lem".

Are there bus companies there with english signs saying "daung"?  What do I tell people who ask me where I want to go?  Do I say "ban laem thailand", "daung", "daun lem"?  Which name will they most likely understand?  At what time is the last bus?  How many hours does it take to get there from battambang?

Has anybody ever taken this path?  What else should I know about it?

Thanks!

guess i was just lucky but should the record of my previous stays not only be in the "transfer of visa" stamp (which she probably did not even look at) but in their computer system, too???

The computer system isn't actually used.  If you go inside to look at the computers, you'll see that the monitors are always off.  They're just making believe to type your information into a computer!

Joking aside.  I suspect their computers aren't actually connected to any kind of central database.  They probably just verify the checksum on the passport (if it's machine readable), check if your passport is blacklisted, and then log your transaction on the local computer.

If they actually had access to your history on their computer, they wouldn't be spending so much time flipping through the physical pages of your passport.

Sadly there is no airport to Mukdaharn! I think the closest is Khon Kaen. This is still a drive from Mukdaharn.

When I last worked up that way the nearest airport was Sakon Nakorn (2 hrs drive) and Ubon Ratchathani (3hrs drive) in order to get to Mukdaharn. TG used to fly to both, but other airlines these days I notice.

I tried to look up the prices on every airport I could find online.  Thai air (and PB Air) have daily flights to Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, and Ubon Ratchathani for about 3000 baht.  All three cities look about 2-3 hours away from Mukdahan, judging from my map.

Air Asia is the only one with a good price.  1069 baht to Ubon Ratchathani, daily.  But it arrives at 3:00 pm.  I wonder if that's enough time to get across the border on the same day, or if I should go one day before my visa expires to be safe. You say it's about 3 hours drive, so if I take the bus from there, and assume I have to wait one hour for the next bus, I'd probably get to the border at about 7 pm.  I think that should be safe?

Does anybody know at what times the border opens and closes there?

I recommend going to the Lao embassy to get a visa in advance.  The 200 baht fee for express service gets you your passport back in one hour (or 2 hours, if you cross their 1 hour lunch break).  The express service is NOT for the next day as one poster seemed to imply.

It is only 50 baht by taxi from the subway station, plus 50 baht to return to the subway.  I took the taxi from Huai Khwang on the way to the embassy.  And when returning, I went to the Thai Cultural Center station.  I'm not sure which one is closer, but it looks about the same.

There is not much to do there while you wait.  But they have a driving range, which I had fun in for over 3 hours before going to get my passport back.

I like getting my visa in advance because it gives me some peace of mind.  I don't have to worry about having the money, pictures, or whatever else is needed to get the visa at the border.

Last time I was at the Vientiane border, I had two problems with the visa application process: 1- They only accepted US dollars, so I had to find a place to exchange my thai baht there. 2- It took over an hour to get my passport back!!  They were so slow, and there were a lot of people.  I had to stand there for over an hour waiting patiently, and carefully watching the passports they held out the small window to see if it was my passport.  Spending 1 or 2 hours peacefully at a driving range, with food and drinks sure beats spending an hour standing and watching carefully for your passport to be shown through the window!

In a few weeks, I'm going to Savannakhet, not Vientiane, but at least I have one less thing to worry about at the border.  This will be my first time in Savannakhet.  Maybe the visa application process is much easier there, but I rather not take the chance.  I'm glad I have it already taken care of.

I want to take the airplane one way to Savannakhet, and return by bus.  But I think it will be much cheaper if I take a domestic flight to an airport near Mukdahan and cross by bus.  Am I correct?

How about phnom penh?

Can I get single tourist visa there?

I got a tourist visa in phnom penh last week, but I was very lucky.  A guy in front of me was denied a tourst visa.  Plus, I remember also being denied a tourist visa there before, about 2-3 years ago.  When I was denied a tourist visa before, the woman told me to just go to the border and get the free 30 day stamp instead.  Back then, this was no problem, but now it's a big problem.

Also, in my passport, when I got my visa last week, they stamped _3 times_ in red: "DO NOT APPLY NEW VISA AT PHNOM PENH AGAIN" (sic). Plus they stapled a piece of paper with the same message on the front cover of my passport as well.  One thing's for sure, I'm not going to apply there ever again!

I need to find another place to apply for a TV in the next 3 months.

- Humanoid

I crossed at poipet about a week ago, to leave thailand.  Indeed, there are signs everywhere about the new air ticket rule.  Also, I was asked to show an airline ticket upon _leaving_ thailand.  They said if I don't have one, I have to buy one NOW.  In fact, they had a desktop computer behind the checkpoint officers.  There was a couple sitting at the computer there, and the officer told me that the couple were on the computer buying themselves an airplane e-ticket so that they may return on the 30 day stamp.  So if you don't have an airplane ticket, and don't mind being forced to buy an airplane ticket at the border on their computer, you _might_ be able to still go to the border and buy the ticket there while exiting.  I find it strange that they had the computer in the office for exits, rather than in the office for entries (on the other side of the road).

They just assumed I was going to cross back into thailand on the same day because of all the visa stamps, without even asking me.  But I already knew about the airplane ticket rule, so my plan was to get a tourist visa at phnom penh.  So after gathering all that information from the officer about the air ticket rules, I told him that I'm going to phnom penh to apply for a tourist visa, and asked him if I need an air ticket for that, and he said no, so they let me leave thailand.  Though they still stapled the rule about airplane tickets to my passport.  

Anyways, I got the tourist visa at phnom penh but I strongly discourage anybody from trying.  A guy in front of me was denied the tourist visa.  I was given the visa, but in my passport, they stamped _3 times_ in red: "DO NOT APPLY NEW VISA AT PHNOM PENH AGAIN" (sic).  Plus they stapled a piece of paper with the same message on the front cover of my passport as well.

I returned to poipet and was able to enter thailand using the new visa without problem, though they again stapled a note with the rule about the air ticket into my passport.  I still had to wait over an hour in line to get in, because it took a

very long time for others to get in.  An officer shouted out the message to everybody in line: "If you don't have a visa, you must show your airplane ticket to the officer."  I suspect that people were still allowed in without an airplane ticket, as I think some of them didn't have a ticket (from what I could overhear), and I didn't see anybody turned away.  But that's only my suspicion.  I don't encourage anybody to take that chance.  You are most probably going to be denied entry into thailand, and be stuck in poipet.

About the 90 day rule.  It is surely enforced.  A guy I met was forced to sleep in poipet for several days until his new 180 day period began.

- Humanoid