TallGuyJohninBKK

Bangkok province "official" cases more than doubled since the start of February: https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/501694248115571 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/495550238729972

Translated from the MoPH: "Dr. Chakrarat Pittayawong-anon, MD. Director of the Department of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, said that during the past week, children 0-9 years old and adolescents 10-19 years old have higher infections, with groups 0-4 years old and 5-9 years old mostly infected. Family infection, age groups 10-14 years and 15-19 years, are school infections. As for the exposure to infected people outside the home and in the community, it is a group of 15-19 years. especially young children. Please keep distance from the elderly and people with underlying diseases. because it may be infected and cause severe symptoms Especially the elderly over 70 years old will have a mortality rate 200 times higher than that of young children. Therefore, we have to campaign to get vaccinated for both children and the elderly. to reduce the risk of infection Reduce severe symptoms and death." https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/501709224780740 As explained elsewhere and before, a good explanation of ONE of the reasons for vaccinating youngsters, apart from protecting their own health.

Thailand COVID hospitalization (real ones, not "hospitels" and such) -- more than tripled: Jan. 4 -- 17,280 Feb. 1 -- 40,590 Feb 10 -- 51,435 Feb 11 -- 55,058 (that's a pretty big one day jump in regular hospitalizations....) Thailand COVID patients in serious/critical condition -- slowly increasing: Jan. 4 -- 555 Feb. 1 -- 557 Feb. 10 -- 563 Feb. 11 -- 569

I ain't signing up for THAT! Wonder why anyone would?

That's why I included the IHME VE data that specifically looks in a separate category at VE against Omicron, which is still emerging because of the recency of that variant. Regardless of whether it's the Delta or Omicron variant, the AZ vaccine is coming out behind Moderna and Pfizer in various measurements in terms of vaccine effectiveness, as pretty much consistently shown in various studies.

The chart there on that page is an EARLIER (Dec 2021) version than the current (Jan. 2022) one I posted above. But even the version on the page you linked to notes: "We updated estimates of vaccine efficacy against infection and severe disease from the Delta variant using 10 studies covering six countries. The resulting pooled effect size is shown in Table 1." As I said above, they're combining actual study data results... Not just sticking their fingers in the wind. Their Jan 2022 version that I posted above is here: https://www.healthdata.org/covid/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-summary

I added the reference to my post above: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410 It's a study from last year, so presumably it's mostly pertaining to Delta.

I don't believe Thailand details their COVID hospitalization data that way.... But, something is driving the tripling of hospitalized patients with COVID since the start of the year... I would imagine, it's some combination of: a: there are lots more people with COVID who are getting hospitalized for some reason and/or b: there are lots more people with COVID who are needing hospitalization because of COVID. Either way, it suggests there are lots more people with COVID.

I didn't say the data I posted above was based on booster shot results. Actually, I believe both are based on fully vaccinated two-shot results.

As posted earlier in this thread, that's getting harder and harder to do in Thailand lately... Thailand COVID hospitalization (real ones, not "hospitels" and such) -- tripled: Jan. 4 -- 17,280 Feb. 1 -- 40,590 Feb 10 -- 51,435

Meanwhile, China is trying hard to get into the mRNA vaccine business: China's Walvax says has most participants for large mRNA COVID vaccine trial "BEIJING, Jan 27 (Reuters) - China's Walvax Biotechnology (300142.SZ) has recruited most of the 28,000 participants needed for a large clinical trial of its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine candidate, a senior company official said on Thursday. China has yet to approve a Chinese vaccine of the novel messenger RNA (mRNA) technology and has yet to import a foreign mRNA vaccine." And why are they trying to get into the mRNA vaccine business? "The issue has become more urgent as studies have shown China's most frequently used shots from Sinovac and Sinopharm are less effective against the highly contagious Omicron than against some previous variants."

Key term there is repeated doses "of the original vaccine composition." mRNA vaccines have a different composition from the different type used in the AZ vaccines, which may well be part of the reason that they're the recommended booster shot on top of original AZ vaccination. The full context of what you quoted from the WHO: "With near- and medium-term supply of the available vaccines, the need for equity in access to vaccines across countries to achieve global public health goals, programmatic considerations including vaccine demand, and evolution of the virus, a vaccination strategy based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable. Composition of current and future COVID-19 vaccines The TAG-CO-VAC considers that COVID-19 vaccines that have high impact on prevention of infection and transmission, in addition to the prevention of severe disease and death, are needed and should be developed. Until such vaccines are available, and as the SARS-CoV-2 virus evolves, the composition of current COVID-19 vaccines may need to be updated, to ensure that COVID-19 vaccines continue to provide WHO-recommended levels of protection against infection and disease[4] by VOCs, including Omicron and future variants." https://www.who.int/news/item/11-01-2022-interim-statement-on-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-context-of-the-circulation-of-the-omicron-sars-cov-2-variant-from-the-who-technical-advisory-group-on-covid-19-vaccine-composition#.

One example below... There also have been other studies done showing that the AZ vaccine's protective effects tend to decline more rapidly post injection than those of the mRNA shots... https://www.healthdata.org/covid/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-summary https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410

No, it's not just antibodies.... By now, the scientists and researchers have been able to do actual followup studies in different countries on how people have fared against COVID with various versions/combinations of vaccines. And the results of those real life followups consistently show that the mRNA vaccines are more effective at preventing COVID infection, and also at preventing serious illness and death, than the standalone AZ vaccine. Anyone who's already had two AZ doses definitely should get the third dose as an mRNA shot if available. Moderna has a somewhat better track record of vaccine effectiveness, but Pfizer is not far behind.

Sweden has 80% of its population age 50 and above TRIPLE vaxed mostly with mRNA COVID vaccines. Thailand only has 62% of its population age 60 and older DOUBLE vaxed, and a lot of those with one or more marginaly effective Sinovac shots.] And only 20-some percent of its total population that have received third booster shots thus far. The two countries aren't even remotely in the same situation COVID-risk wise.

Yup, that's the current medical thinking. The COVID vaccines do not cause shingles in people who previously haven't had chicken pox or shingles. However, the scientists and doctors have been studying whether the vaccines or COVID itself, rarely, can cause the shingles virus to re-emerge in those who already have it. COVID-19 vaccines don't cause shingles, but may lead to flare-ups, experts say "TORONTO -- While some are suggesting on social media that shingles may be a side effect of the COVID-19 vaccine, experts say there is no evidence to suggest that the vaccines cause shingles. However, studies suggest COVID-19 infection or vaccination against the disease may "reactivate" the virus if a person already has had shingles or chickenpox." Apparently, though, there's also a school of thought that the post vaccine shingles cases may instead be just a coincidence that would have occurred anyway. "Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University and a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America, previously told The Associated Press that reports of shingles after being vaccinated are a coincidence. "We have been emphasizing the vaccination of older adults. That's the very population in which shingles is the most common, and so you would expect some cases of shingles to occur after vaccination... because it's going to occur anyway," Schaffner said." https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines-don-t-cause-shingles-but-may-lead-to-flare-ups-experts-say-1.5516488

It's been 2+ years since I've had a visit back to the home country, which is a long time for me... I had been thinking, previously, perhaps a possible trip later this spring/summer, if all went well, especially now that the wife and I have been lately triple vaxed. But now, with local COVID cases rising and the latest edict relating to the mandated insurance policies now clearly not covering any potential COVID quarantine costs here, those trip notions have pretty much evaporated for the time being. Trips back home are already expensive considering airfare and hotel lodging, meals and shopping and such while traveling there for a couple of weeks. But add in the prospect of potentially 100,000 baht or more in quarantine costs here upon return, should I get COVID unlucky, and no way to protect against that, and it's just becomes impractical and unwise.

Another, perhaps more significant trend indicator than just cases since the start of the new year: Thailand COVID hospitalization (real ones, not "hospitels" and such) -- tripled: Jan. 4 -- 17,280 Feb. 1 -- 40,590 Feb 10 -- 51,435 Thailand COVID patients in serious/critical condition -- almost unchanged: Jan. 4 -- 555 Feb. 1 -- 557 Feb 10 -- 563 Sources from MoPH: (the largest white font number in each chart is the total number of COVID cases under any treatment as of that date. The top right hand corner number in each graphic is the actual real COVID hospitalizations.) The bottom right hand corner blue font number in each chart is COVID patients requiring intubation to breath. Jan.4 Feb.1 Feb. 10 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos

The OWD data is a day behind for now, and doesn't reflect today's Thailand update to 14,822 new official cases. But it does give a good look at the way official COVID case counts have been trending since the start of 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=USA~THA But not much trend movement on reported COVID deaths thus far, with another 20 new reported today not yet on the chart below: Source link

Yep, agree with that entirely.... How about making it simple. Let's not call it "medical insurance," which is and can remain its own separate thing. Let's call it "COVID quarantine insurance for Thailand." So, apart from medical issues covered by medical insurance -- if you're required to go into a govt mandated quarantine facility in Thailand (hospitel, hotel, community quarantine, etc.) due to a positive COVID test, the policy wlll cover your mandated quarantine expenses up to XXXXX baht per day, etc etc. That would be clean and staightforward. But AFAIK, no such policy exists right now, especially in the wake of the MoPH's latest edict.

The old.. "no kissing" and "no short-time hotel visits" things again...for Valentine's Day??? ????

This is another way of seeing that same COVID era excess mortality data for Thailand (with data for the most recent times likely less accurate because of delays in reporting.) https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Only about 24% of Thailand's population has received the third booster dose of COVID vaccine that the medical authorities say is necessary to fully protect against Omicron. And only about 62% of Thailand's age 60 and older population has even received TWO vaccine doses thus far. (See MoPH chart below) Then you have the issue of waning vaccine effectiveness for all those who got their original shots earlier in 2021, especially those who got the documentedly least effective Sinovac vaccine that was prevalent here in the early going. Right now, there are 50,000 plus people hospitalized in Thailand with COVID, and a slightly larger number in field hospitals or other alternate facilities (dunno if that counts home quarantine or not). I believe I saw in a news report the other day regarding Sweden dropping a lot of their COViD restrictions, they said something like 80% or so of their older population had received 3 COVID doses (largely mRNA in their case). Thailand is nowhere close to that. "Andersson said 80% of all Swedes over the age of 50 have now received three vaccine doses." https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-lifestyle-europe-restaurants-a1cb094b0643ffb120690783b7382b2b Today's TH vaccines update from the MoPH: https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/501086438176352/?type=3

Meanwhile, the "official" COVID case numbers for Thailand are trending upward, even with presumably many people self-testing and keeping it to themselves. Almost 15,000 new official cases reported in the past day, plus another 7,700+ positive ATK tests that are presumed positives. "The news comes as Thailand’s daily Covid-19 infections could possibly reach 30,000 cases by the end of February and could affect activities during the upcoming Songkran festival..." ... "Dr. Chakrarat Pittayawonganon, Director of the Bureau of Epidemiology under the Public Health Ministry, gave an interview this afternoon that the Covid-19 situation assessment around the world proved that foreign countries in Europe and America are in a downtrend of the outbreak with less infections while many countries in Asia, including Thailand, is in an uptrend with higher numbers of cases." Just for context, I believe Thailand peaked at about 25,000 cases per day and up to 300 deaths last fall, before the numbers then started to decline. Right now, we're at 20 official COVID deaths per day, whereas the road deaths daily average is about 50. But with COVID, where are we going from here? Another upcoming repeat of mid-last year's wave? Today's update from MoPH -- about 105,000 people nationwide under treatment for COVID, about 50,000 hospitalized and more than 50,000 in field hospitals, hospitels or other alternnate facilities. 563 in serious condition, and 114 on ventilators because of COVID: https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/501085981509731/?type=3

WOO HOO!!! So the official stats say the government has finally met their original goal from a year back of getting 70% of the population "fully vaccinated" -- meaning two shots. The current official MoPH figure is 70.5%, but only 24.2% for people who've received the third shot that medical experts say is necessary with Omicron. And, of course, the ones who got their original two shots early in 2021 by now have seen the effectiveness of those vaccines wane/decline, especially in regard to preventing infection, but some also in preventing serious illness. And then even more, the Sinovac vaccine the government used on many has been shown to be the least effective of the major COVID vaccines. In short, time has passed and the pandemic circumstances have changed, with Omicron being a very different variant (much more transmissible, but less severe illness overall) since Thailand set its original goal. These days, the medical authorities are advising that THREE good doses, preferably with mRNA vaccines, are what's needed to combat Omicron. And Thailand is nowhere close in that regard. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/501086438176352/?type=3 It's also worth noting, if you look at the MoPH chart from today posted above, the fifth line down in blue shows the current vaccination rates for older folks 60 and above -- the most COVID vulnerable group -- LESS THAN 70% at only 62.2% with two shots and only 20% with three shots. That's not a good situation.