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nickh

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Posts posted by nickh

    Thai Stock Index Plummets, Hits lowest since 2003

    in Thailand News

    Posted

    "Thai Stock Index Plummets" ---

    This is nothing compared to what will happen if AIG falls,

    More like Financial Disaster,

    Singapore says local AIG unit can meet liabilities

    The Associated Press\ September 16, 2008

    SINGAPORE: Singapore's central bank said Tuesday the local unit of embattled

    insurance giant American International Group Inc. has sufficient assets to meet its

    liabilities as nervous policyholders lined up outside the company's offices.

    http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/16/...ngapore-AIG.php

    Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

    in General Topics

    Posted · Edited by nickh

    Why don't you read the thread? I'm sick of repeating myself already on this thread.

    EVERYTHING I have said in this discussion has been backed up by facts and data, which is much more than can be said for some of the others here.

    Sept 11 2008

    Bangkok Post Breaking News

    foreign arrivals drop sharply due to political turmoil

    http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=130592

    Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

    in General Topics

    Posted

    I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

    In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

    You seem to have forgotten THIS one. :o

    Fake statistics and blatant lies. What other "debating skills" do you have up your sleeve?

    Yes the TOTAL NUMBER of tourists will still increase over 2007 but the GROWTH RATE will become lower than before. If you can't understand basic principles you shouldn't bother to debate them.

    The hole you are in is so deep I can hardly hear you anymore. You are a complete joke when it comes to discussing anything serious. You haven't produced a shred of evidence and you just ignore the RELEVANT STATS. What a complete joke....

    BTW, TAT are predicting a growth rate of about 5% this year.

    Wall Street Journal

    Unrest Crimps Thailand Tourism

    September 10, 2008

    -- Thailand's tourism industry is bracing for heavy losses as weeks of political unrest hit bookings just as the high season nears.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1220988157...=googlenews_wsj

    Tat To Explain Political Unrest To Cushion Negative Impact On Tourism

    in Thailand News

    Posted · Edited by nickh

    But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

    I wouldn't count on many Chinese.

    China warning:

    China's chief tourism body has warned against traveling to

    Thailand after the state of emergency was declared in Bangkok.

    http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_Business...p2008_biz99.php

    Asian nations urge citizens against Thailand travel

    \ http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP64769.htm

    Chiang Mai Tourism Hit Hard

    in Chiang Mai

    Posted

    I know several who have canceled their trips here.

    Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

    Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

    do you have a link for the Time magazine site

    http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...e-inline-bottom

    LaoPo

    thanks for the link,

    typical (soft) photos by Time,

    heres why some of the tourist are skipping thailand

    Wall Street Journal Sept 3

    Democracy Threatened by Protests

    http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt...ges?q=thailand+

    Chiang Mai Tourism Hit Hard

    in Chiang Mai

    Posted

    I know several who have canceled their trips here.

    Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

    Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

    do you have a link for the Time magazine site

    State Of Emergency Announced In Bangkok

    in Thailand News

    Posted

    The Wall Street Journal...

    Democracy in Thailand Is Threatened by Protests

    Authoritarian Rule Of Nation's Past Appeals to Many

    By JAMES HOOKWAY September 3, 2008; Page A10

    An injured pro-government supporter was beaten Tuesday by anti-government protesters during clashes outside Government House in Bangkok.

    This is what New Yorkers and the rest of America/World will be reading today

    5 PAD supports and one deranged Pad sentry - against one injured pro-government supporter....

    http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt...l%3Den%26sa%3DN

    State Of Emergency Announced In Bangkok

    in Thailand News

    Posted

    Thai Baht, Stocks Slump as Samak Declares Emergency

    Gold hits one-week low as speculators ditch holdings

    Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) --

    Thailand's baht fell to the lowest level in more than a year and stocks dropped to a 19-month low after Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej declared a state of emergency. Investors sought the safety of government bonds.The currency extended last month's 2.1 percent decline after clashes in Bangkok between thousands of pro- and anti-government protesters left one dead and 43 injured.

    The People's Alliance for Democracy, a group seeking Samak's resignation, has occupied Government House, where the prime minister's office is located, since Aug. 26.``This is not helping the Thai baht,'' said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. ``We are short the Thai baht. We expect the central bank to limit the volatility today in this type of event. Dissolution of the Thai parliament is the most likely scenario.''Protests in the Southeast Asian nation that escalated in the past week have raised concerns that parliament may be dissolved, paralyzing government policies for boosting economic growth.

    Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said last week growth may ease to 5.5 percent in the second half of the year because of a slowdown in exports. The economy grew 5.7 percent in the first half, a state agency said Aug. 25.The benchmark SET Index fell 1.8 percent to 662.77 as of 11:28 a.m. local time, headed for its lowest close since Feb. 1, 2007.

    The baht fell 0.4 percent to 34.45 against the dollar in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.`Negative Action'The central bank has `intervened' to support the baht, Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee said in Bangkok today. ``We took care of the currency this morning because it fell a lot,'' she said. ``We need to curb the volatility.''The events of the ``past two weeks have raised the probability of a negative action on the sovereign credit ratings,'' of Thailand,

    Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kim Eng Tan said in report today. The debt is rated BBB+, the eighth highest investment rating, with a stable outlook.``Economic growth could fall markedly as domestic demand weakens further,'' S&P said. ``Inbound tourism and foreign direct investment would also decline. Even as revenue is expected to fall in this scenario, pressures for spending will increase.

    ''Moody's Investors Service yesterday retained its stable outlook on Thailand's Baa1 credit ranking, indicating the ratings company is disinclined to change it.Overseas investors sold $3.1 billion more Thai stocks than they bought this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.`Continued Standoff'``There will be some sell-off,'' said Kenneth Ng, chief executive officer of Bangkok-based NTAsset (Thailand) Co., which has about $121 million of assets under management.

    ``There will be a continued standoff.''Thailand's ruling People Power Party should be dissolved for vote-buying in December's elections, the Election Commission said after studying a July 8 conviction of a senior party member, state-controlled NBT television Channel reported.A 10-hour emergency parliamentary session on Aug. 31 failed to resolve the political standoff, with Samak dismissing calls from the opposition for a House dissolution because he said it would fail to ``protect democracy.

    ''``We can't let the protests go on,'' Samak said at a press briefing at military headquarters in the Thai capital today. ``I am acting to defuse the problem.''Political InstabilityBank of Thailand Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee said last week that political instability has overtaken inflation as the biggest threat to the economy.The baht may fall to 35 by the month-end, Harr said. The currency slumped to 34.49 today, the weakest since Aug. 23, 2007.

    The benchmark 10-year government bonds advanced today for a seventh day, pushing yields to a six-month low, as investors sought the relative safety of government debt. The yield on the 5.125 percent note due March 2018 declined 7.5 basis points to 4.3 percent, the lowest since March 7, according to prices from TMB Bank Pcl in Bangkok. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.``People are buying bonds as a safe haven,'' said Norrabodee Ongsakorn, a bond trader at TMB Bank.

    ``In times of crisis, there is flight to safety. People don't expect the benchmark rates to go up, and that is also pushing yields lower.''The inflation rate fell to 6.4 percent in August from 9.2 percent the previous month. Policy makers raised the one-day bond repurchase rate to 3.75 percent on Aug. 27.Economic Fundamentals``The state of emergency is negative for the currency,'' said Sebastien Barbe, a strategist in Hong Kong at Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.

    ``The economic fundamentals aren't supportive of the currency. You have a slowing economy, slowing domestic demand and real interest rates are now negative.'' The baht may fall to 35.80 by the end of the year, Barbe said.``It's short-run negative,'' said Tim Condon, chief Asia economist at ING Groep NV in Singapore. ``It's more political noise and investors tend to react badly to political noise. If this doesn't settle down quickly, then we could see the currency drift lower over the next week or two to 35.

    ''The cost of protecting Thailand's government bonds from default rose to the highest in eight weeks. Five-year credit- default swaps on the government's external debt traded one basis point higher at 146 and were quoted earlier at 151, according to a Bloomberg survey of three dealers.The price, which rises as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate, is equivalent to $146,000 annually to protect $10 million of the nation's bonds.

    Credit-default swaps are used to protect against or speculate on default. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities if a borrower fails to adhere to its debt agreements.Thailand reported its second current-account deficit in four months for July. The shortfall was $555 million, a central bank official said Aug. 29, compared with a $722 million surplus in June.

    Gold struck a one-week low today, as speculators ditched some holdings following a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in the US dollar, which reduced bullion's appeal as an alternative investment.A state of emergency in Thailand, Asia's fourth-largest gold investor, had yet to spur safe-haven buying but dealers saw purchases at lower levels from jewellers in other parts of Asia. Platinum dropped 3 per cent to a one-week low on demand concerns.

    Gold fell to $814.20/815.20 an ounce from $817.15/818.75 an ounce late in London. New York markets were closed yesterday for the Labour Day holiday."The movements in oil prices and the US dollar have both conspired against gold," said David Moore, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.Oil fell further today after slumping more than $4 a day ago on speculation that a surprisingly weak Hurricane Gustav likely spared key Gulf oil infrastructure.The dollar index climbed 0.8 per cent to 77.75 after hitting an eight-month high of 77.823.

    Gold has lost more than 20 per cent in value since spiking to all-time high of $1,030.80 in March, mainly driven by profit taking, oil's falls from record highs and a rebounding dollar."There's a bit of buying on the physical side because the price is below $820 but the situation in Thailand has no impact. Oil is still the main factor," said a dealer in Hong Kong.Thai prime minister Samak Sundaravej declared a state of emergency in Bangkok and gave the army control of public order after a man died in overnight clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters.

    Spot platinum dropped to $1,395.50/1,415.50 an ounce from $1,439.00/1,451.00 late in London on concerns about demand for autocatalysts due to poor car sales and a slowing US economy. Prices were below record high of $2,290 hit in March.Car sales in Japan, excluding 660cc minivehicles, tumbled 14.9 per cent in August year-on-year to 193,902 vehicles. Sales for August fell short of 200,000 vehicles for the first time in 37 years.Autocatalysts, used to clean exhaust fumes, account for more than 50 per cent of global platinum demand.The benchmark platinum contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange,

    August 2009 fell 176 yen per gram to 4,809 yen. New York gold futures lost $16.30 an ounce to $818.90.Spot palladium fell to $288.00/296.00 an ounce from $297.00/305.00 an ounce. Silver edged down to $13.35/13.41 an ounce from $13.40/13.46 an ounce late in London.

    Hotels, Operators Begin To See Booking Cancellations

    in Phuket News

    Posted

    Tue Sep 2, 2008

    Hotels, operators begin to see booking cancellations

    CHATRUDEE THEPARAT & SOMPORN THAPANACHAI

    Thailand's tourism industry is starting to feel the pinch of political unrest, as tourists from South Korea, Australia, Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom are expected to turn to Bali, Vietnam and the Maldives. At least five nations have issued warnings about travelling to Thailand following protests in Bangkok and the forced closures of airports in Phuket, Krabi and Hat Yai last week, according to the Tourism Crisis Management Centre, which comprises representatives from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and private organisations.

    Apichart Sankary, the president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, yesterday repeated his call for the government and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to settle their differences as soon as possible before the one-trillion-baht tourism industry is damaged further.

    ''I want to send this message to the PAD protesters, especially those in southern provinces, that closing airports will affect not only businesses in the provinces but also others, as the industry involves many sectors including the agricultural and food sectors,'' he said.According to Mr Apichart, the protests have already scared away Asians who are more sensitive than Westerners about security issues.

    They could hurt the European market as well if the protests continue to the middle of this month.He said the Thai tourism industry was likely to lose revenue during the five-month high season (October to February) if the protests were prolonged. Normally, the country receives 1.5 million to two million visitors a month during the high season, generating income of more than 100 billion baht.

    Prakit Shinamornpong, the president of the Thai Hotels Association, said he was particularly concerned about the impact on senior citizens from the United Kingdom.Maiyarat Pheerayakoses, president of the Association of Domestic Travel (ADT), added the closures of airports and railways were unjustified and would damage the country's image.

    Larry Cunningham, the developer of Chava Resort on Surin Beach, said the airport closures had already hurt the tourism industry on Phuket. His recently opened hotel, which was gearing up for its first high season, has already received cancellations for some of its 45 high-end apartments. Chava Resort had invested in promotion and staff training during the low season and now the employees cannot expect much from service charges.

    ''They are very sad. In the end, the biggest loser is Thailand as other surrounding countries like Malaysia and Cambodia have strengthened their tourism industries,'' Mr Cunningham said. The operators of other five-star hotels also told him about their booking cancellations. ''If there is another airport closure, you can forget about tourism for the next 12 months. When we were hit by natural disasters, tourists said they would come back again to help Phuket people. But with this man-made disaster, they will not return,'' he said.

    State Of Emergency Announced In Bangkok

    in Thailand News

    Posted

    The Sydney Morning Herald

    Emergency declared in Thai capital after clashe.

    September 2, 2008 -

    Thailand's embattled prime minister declared a state of emergency in the capital Tuesday after thousands of his opponents and supporters clashed in the worst street violence here in more than a decade.One person was killed and dozens were injured, some of them from gunshot wounds, as a week of mass protests calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej spilled over into bloodshed overnight.

    Samak had previously said he would not use force to push out the thousands of protesters who have occupied the main government complex since last week, but after the violence said it was now time for them to go. They must be moved from the Government House, Samak told a nationally televised news conference. "I had no other choice but to declare a state of emergency in Bangkok in order to solve the problem for once and for all"

    Samak gave the army the power to break up any gathering of more than five people and to force people to leave any location, setting the stage for a showdown at Government House, a site that includes Samak's offices.But a leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a well-organised movement that has been pushing for the premier to stand down after just seven months in office, urged his supporters to stay put."You don't have to be afraid of the state of emergency," media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul told thousands of people assembled at the protest camp.

    Thai police called in army reinforcements early Tuesday to rein in the protests, setting nerves on edge in a country that has seen 18 military coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.Thai television showed pro- and anti-government protesters wearing helmets and carrying batons running though the streets, fighting with each other and throwing rocks, as people lay bleeding on the street.

    One person died and 44 were injured in the clashes, a spokesman for the national emergency centre said.PAD supporters stormed Samak's Government House complex one week ago, and thousands are still squatting on the grounds.The activists accuse Samak of acting on behalf of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who now lives in exile in Britain after the same protest group helped provoked a military coup that toppled his government in 2006.

    No one was killed during that coup, making this the deadliest political violence since the Bloody May massacre in 1992 when dozens of pro-democracy activists were killed on the same streets as today's protests.The protests which began a week ago expanded nationwide over the weekend to force the temporary closure of three regional airports and halt railway services.

    They further scaled up Monday when Thailand's biggest union called for a strike to add to the pressure on Samak, threatening to disrupt Bangkok's water and power supplies from Wednesday.PAD gathers most of its support from Bangkok's traditional elite and a portion of the middle class. Its leaders openly disparage the merit of votes cast by the nation's rural poor, who have thrown their support behind Thaksin and now Samak.

    Thaksin's allies still fill many top seats in government, and Samak won elections in December by campaigning as Thaksin's proxy.In addition to demanding that Samak resign, PAD wants an overhaul of Thailand's system of government, saying only 30 percent of seats in parliament should be elected, with the rest appointed.

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