thaihome

My ACH transfer from First Internet Bank (FIB) was rejected Friday, November 29. Waiting for funds to be returned, hopefully today (their Monday).  

I do have to add it's great to have this resource to go to to find out what happened. I didn't realize this was coming. I've been doing this for something like 15 years. I guess everything has to end sometime.  Looks like I will be setting up a Transferwise account....

TH

The two reports are a contrast in management styles on each ship.

On the Fitz you seem to have a rather loose style that did not strictly enforce procedures such as plotting nearby ship positions nor notification to captain when traffic got close. This resulted in the ship basicly running into another ship they should have been able to easily avoid if procedures were followed.  

On the Cain, it appears it was run very tightly with the captain in full control. Unfortunately that full control included his running the bridge, giving direct orders to operators, without full acknowledgment of him being in control. This resulted in the captain giving an order he assumed would be followed up by the officer of deck to change the helm and thrust control configuration that was not acknowledged or followed up by the officer of the deck (since he assumed the captain was in charge). The result was the Cain making a uncontrolled turn into another ship. 

Certainly,  in both incidents,  lack of training by enlisted personnel played a big part but the management styles on each ship were flawed in completely different ways with the end result being the same and just as enviable in both cases.

TH

Here is the full report on both collisions. Makes for very sad reading, both for the deaths and the actions leading up to them. 

http://s3.amazonaws.com/CHINFO/USS+Fitzgerald+and+USS+John+S+McCain+Collision+Reports.pdf

TH 

If a vessel,  military or otherwise, chooses to not broadcast their position via AIS then it is their obligation to avoid other ships that are doing so. As the below link states,  Singapore's ship control network,  equivalent to a traffic control system did not even know the McCain was there. This is along with other collisions shows that the US Navy has systematic issues and hopefully the relieving of the overall comander and worldwide safety shutdown will improve the the attitude. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/world/asia/navy-collision-uss-mccain-oil-tanker.html

TH 

2 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

No breaking news, but a bit interesting;

 

https://sputniknews.com/military/201706191054778289-uss-fitzgerald-raises-doubts-for-real-combat-capability/

 

In the link above some so called experts are putting the blame, the whole blame, for the crash on the destroyer.

 

https://sputniknews.com/military/201707141055527183-fitzgerald-crash-billions-liability-lawsuit/

 

In the link above it is stated that the owners of the container ship may be liable for up to 2 billion US.

 

 

The interesting bit being that, as per normal, lack of solid knowledge does not result in lack of strong opinions.

 

Not surprising conclusions coming from Sputnik News.

Foreign Policy magazine has described Sputnik as a slick and internet-savvy outlet of Kremlin propaganda, which "remixes President Vladimir Putin's brand of revanchist nationalism for an international audience... beating a predictable drum of anti-Western rhetoric."[5] Such views were also voiced by the Washington DC-based think tank[27] Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), which argues that Sputnik spreads biased information. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_(news_agency)

The US Navy and the other two or three investigations will likely take a year or so before their reports are released just lIke other similar investigations in the past. Nothing other then idle speculation until then. 

TH 

46 minutes ago, riclag said:

Did you buy or build a house together?If you did you must report a FBAR and when you sell it you must file capital gains,are you aware of this?

Why would building a house kick-off a FBAR report. As far as I know FBAR is only about foriegn financial accounts. I don't think foriegn real estate is required to be reported on FBAR or form 8938.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/comparison-of-form-8938-and-fbar-requirements

You do have report capital gains on a sale, but you also get the primary residence exclusion as well as foriegn tax credit if you paid Thai tax on the gain.

TH 

2 hours ago, grollies said:

MARPOL - marine pollution instigated by the IMO.

 

Interestingly, Thailand is one of the few countries in the world not to have ratifyed.

Actually, Thailand ratified MARPOL in 2008. 

http://www.ceat.or.th/2010/index.php/environmental-water-supply-sanitation/264-port-waste-management-in-thai-ports-.html

On the offshore work I was involved with in the GoT,  compliance was pretty well enforced.

TH 

3 hours ago, keeniau96 said:

Very good freebie, thank s to the OP. The link allows d/l of ebook, Thai and streaming video versions.

 

I didn't see a link to download the ebook, only to open in the provided eReader. 

TH 

If you are working here, best thing is get a letter from your employer saying you are employed and are taking a vacation and they expect you back. In case of a spouse of  US citizen requesting a tourist visa, they are looking to make sure you are not shortcutting the green card route. 

If you are 37 and unemployed in Thailand it will be difficult to show your ties that they will accept. 

TH 

Thanks for posting. Looks like an interesting read.

TH 

6 hours ago, Maestro said:

The Constitution of 2007, ie the last Constitution before the current interim Constitution, had the following on human rightas:

 

 

Again nothing about specific rights.

Can you give an example of any countries' constitution that includes specific "human rights" laws? The US has a bill of rights which are the first 10 ammendments to the Constitution laying out the legal rights, but there is no mention of "human rights" as that phrase is a fairly recent construct.

TH  

https://www.google.co.th/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.rlpd.go.th/rlpdnew/images/rlpd_1/2556/thaigov_Plan3/10plan3.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwit0L-I98rRAhVJN48KHTrOA0kQFgg0MAk&usg=AFQjCNE1-WmMxKzZQaBWMql6c5s6BKQAwA&sig2=cPyB94ld48t-1xPv4PJrcA

TH 

http://www.thailawforum.com/database1/national-human-right-3.html

TH

7 hours ago, zoza said:

Thanks for all the opinions and helpful comments, I have been down the electric meter not working

correctly  so you pay near double to the deposit being denied to the internet being switched off until you drop someone a few baht to "fix" it and now I am on the blocked shower game.....it appears the single pipe running away from the condo needed cutting the acid did not work....the owner says he has to pay..3k ..and I asked the condo management and they say only the main drains are covered by them.

 

 

Jesus Christ. How do you people get into these situations?

I've lived here over 15 years, know lots of people over that time and not once have I ever met anyone in person that has had one of your problems or the problems I read about daily here happen to them. ?

TH 

6 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

 

They bring it up, because the "first notice" of the enforcement is often a fine.  If you make sure a TM-30 has been filed for you (and get a receipt) - no fine.

Sounds like good logic, but in practice unless you have just arrived in a location where it's your problem to file the TM 30 for the first time ever, you are likely in arrears and eligible to be fined for bringing it up. 

A good rule to live a hassle free life,  never volunteer anything to a government bureaucracy. Applies worldwide.

I still say, keep your mouth shut and if they enforce it, pay the 2,000 baht fine once and go on with your life. 

TH 

4 minutes ago, ubonjoe said:

Since you mentioned the HR department I suspect the company hired them on the employees behalf. It is not just about the visa it more to do with getting a work permit.

To be honest, I don't know how they did it, but am sure  the company did not hire them (I would have seen the paperwork on that). I believe there are agencies that specialize in providing foreign domestic workers, including Filipinos.   The people had to pay fees and salary themselves.  

TH

It's certainly possible.  I know several people that brought their Filipino  maids/nannies with them when they transferred to Thailand from Hong Kong or Singapore.  One guy did use that route to allow his Filipino gf to stay with him both in Singapore and Thailand. As far as I know visa was arranged legally through HR dept with minimum hassle. 

TH 

I think it's important to distinguish between the agencies that do charge 20k baht, possibly providing assistance of a somewhat illegal nature with the financial requirements and those agencies that provide a ethical, convenient service in dealing with immigration at a reasonable price.

Personally,  I am happy to to pay the equivalent of a couple hundred dollars to an agent that completes all the paperwork with me providing an income letter from my embassy when we meet at Immigration once a year. She arrives early,  gets in the queue, gets the number, and calls me at the coffee shop downstairs when our number is called. I then sit there for some 10 minutes while stamps are put into my passport and I leave. She then goes and gets the reentry permit and a courier returns my passport later that day. 

I guess it comes down to, as these things often do, to how much is your time worth. The last thing I want to be doing is filling out government forms, making copies, and standing in line at Chang Wattana immigration waiting for door to open and the mad rush to get a number. I will sit downstairs in the coffee shop and I'm happy to pay somebody to do all that. My choice and I certainly wouldn't criticize some one that does all at themselves. 

If you go my route, you do need to use a reputable agent that is not going to overcharge you. 15k or 20k is way over.

TH 

On 1/7/2017 at 9:12 AM, chiang mai said:

The OP asks, what is the likely direction of THB against USD:

 

The basic premise: sell USD and buy THB and the Thai Baht strengthens; sell THB against any currency and THB weakens. So who/what are the key entities who buy/sell THB?

 

THOSE WHO BUY THB (make it stronger):

 

Tourism (which historically has experienced a year on year increase but is now faltering)

 

Overseas investors (think SET and capital inflows (see below))

 

Exporters (over 80% of exports are paid for in USD and capital controls require(d) it be exchanged into THB – twenty years ago this conversion represented  almost 95% of all foreign currency receipts, today it is about 60%).  http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=614&language=eng

 

BOT (think managed float and substantial foreign currency reserves)

 

 

THOSE  WHO SELL THB (make it weaker):

 

Thai holders of overseas denominated debt

 

Importers (who must buy foreign currency to settle import bills) http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=833&language=ENG

 

Overseas investors (think SET and capital outflows (below))

 

BOT (think managed float)

 

 

Capital Inflows/Outflows

 

 

In a perfect economic world Thai capital inflows and outflows would be evenly matched, currently they are not. For the past few years capital inflows have surged as overseas investors chased yield, today inflows are reverting to outflows as the US Fed increases interest rates and a new administration promises higher rates of growth.

 

During periods of high capital inflows the value of THB surges because the currency is in demand, historically BOT has controlled this surge by 1) selling THB and buying foreign currency using foreign currency reserves, and,  2) relaxation of capital controls which allow Thai companies and nationals to sell THB against foreign currencies. The very clear trend is for BOT to relax currency controls as a tool to manage THB value, over and above the use of foreign currency reserves.

 

 

BOT and ASEAN

 

BOT is required to manage THB, amongst other things, against a basket of ASEAN currencies.

 

 

From the above:

 

Tourist numbers have weakened slightly; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals.

 

Capital outflows have increased; http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/thai-baht-plunges-6-year-low-capital-market-outflow-dollar-strength-1511130

 

Capital controls have been relaxed; http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/thai-central-bank-relaxes-curbs-on-capital-flows-to-weaken-strong-baht

 

Exports continue to out value imports but not massively; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade.

 

ASEAN currencies have weakened against USD.http://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-currencies-fall-against-the-u-s-dollar-1479090860

 

 

Conclusion: THB will continue to fall against USD, whether it falls against The Pound will depend on Brexit negotiations and outcome, in the short term GBP is expected to weaken against THB. One modelled view of THB/USD is here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency/forecast

 

I agree with your analysis of what are the various drivers for THB fx fluctuations.  I do disagree with your conclusion that it will weaken this year. One major reason for that is your IBTimes article on record setting capital outflows is dated July 2015 when the SET was in the middle of a serious negative correction due to perceived political instability due to the coup.  The impact of that capital outflow is almost 2 years past now.

Note from my link in earlier post the SET had a pretty good 2016 but there has not been the corresponding rise in Baht.  I think this lag is due to lack of foriegn participation in the SET rise and the corresponding demand for baht. I think that will be corrected in 2017. It's a real opportunity to be able to buy into a rising stock market with a potentially undervalued currency.

 Again, it really all depends on the world economy and the demand for Thai exports and the continuing bullish SET. The THB does not exist in a vacuum.

TH 

2 hours ago, Craig krup said:

 

Well, tourism could be 9% or 20%, depending on who you believe, and it's all hard currency. The exports of rice and fish are all pure hard currency earning, but a lot of other stuff included in the export total will have big inputs from abroad - I doubt Thailand's cars and electronics begin as Thai iron ore and oil.  

 

Of course the reason they're so keen on foreign direct investment is precisely because it's illiquid. Once you've built the plant there's no "flash crash" possible: you can't sell a car plant for Baht and turn the funds into dollars, or not easily at a price you'd want. 

I've been having this discussion with people like you who think Thailand's economy is entirely dependent on tourism and rice for a long time. I suggest you do some research on the the manufacturing sector and see what actually drives the economy here. It is automotive, electronic, and white goods manufacturing that leads the way. That dwarfs tourism and agriculture.

I was not refering to FDI,  I was discussing foriegn investment by international funds in  Thai liquid  investments such has the SET and various bonds issued by Thai multinationals such as PTT or CPP. Did you look at the link I posted that shows the historical  correlation between the SET and USD/THB fx rate?

Please explain what "hard currency" means in an fully convertible currency world we live in today.

TH

13 minutes ago, Boatman37210 said:

 

This off USCIS website:

 

If you are currently outside the United States and are an immediate relative of a U.S. citizen, you can become a permanent resident through consular processing. Consular processing is when USCIS works with the Department of State to issue a visa on an approved Form I-130 petition when a visa is available.

 

This is what they are calling consular processing.  As you stated there are two agencies:  USCIS and State Department.

 

Filing in the US is easier and quicker.  It is an option, but what I don't understand is how you get to the US legally to take advantage of that option.  If we use a tourist visa with green card intent, that is illegal.  Then what visa do you use to get to the US that is legal which would make it okay to file in the US?  Maybe there isn't one for green card intent.  Maybe the US filing option is for people who go for other intentions and then decide they would like to live there. 

 

I want to do this straight up, so I will file here.  The very, very last thing I want is to risk being in disfavor with immigration.

 

Thanks.

In Bangkok it is not a consular filing. You file with USCIS office directly. You must prove residency first.

http://www.globicus.com/index.php/fx/1798-models/383-thai-baht-vs-thailand-s-set-50-index-equity-index

TH

On 12/30/2016 at 10:42 PM, Craig krup said:

 

I don't know enough about it. Knowing that you don't know is a good place to be 

 

Thailand's tourist industry is a massive foreign exchange earner. So what happens to all that hard currency? How easy it is for Thais - and Thai corporations - to have non-Baht accounts? In Argentina, Zimbabwe and many other places you can price goods and services in dollars, and hold paper currency. You might not be able to open a dollar account - it might not be wise to (see Argentina and the seizure of dollar deposits) - but nobody actually stops you pricing in dollars and receiving payment in paper currency from the tourists.

 

I don't think that would fly in Thailand.  I'm guessing that everything's priced in Baht and they wouldn't tolerate anything else. The banks and currency exchanges hand over baht for dollars, euros and pounds. All that hard currency ends up as foreign reserves in the hands of the central bank.  The commercial banks (again I'm guessing) can't advance Baht and hold hard currency deposits on their own account, speculating on future falls in the Baht. So the volume of hard currency supporting the Baht is considerable. They've massive duties preventing - or disadvantaging - imports, and an "export" economy in tourism which sidesteps the retaliatory duties on goods imposed by other countries. 

Your understanding of economics is obviously very good,but you are making some incorrect assumptions about the Thai economy and currency controls that impact your conclusions. 

Thailand's biggest industry is not to tourism, but manufacturing for export  (and to a lessor degree domestic consumption). Currency controls do exist, but the THB is fully convertible to the point that foreign hard currency from tourism is meaningless. 

In the 15 or so years I have been here it seems to me the biggest impact to the THB exchange rate has been supply and demand fluctuations driven by foreign investment in the SET and other investment devices. When foreign investors are buying baht it strengthens (to invest in cash instruments), when they are selling, it weakens. The interest in Thai investments by foriegn funds is driven by forecasts of the Thai economy which is closely tied to the world economy and the demand for Thai exports. 

http://www.globicus.com/index.php/fx/1798-models/383-thai-baht-vs-thailand-s-set-50-index-equity-index

The THB weakness over the past two years I belive has been driven by the political instability that was forecasted to negatively  impact the SET after the coup. The SET has somewhat defied that forecast (after an initial negative impact). This means a foriegn investors that stuck it out after the coup has done well in SET over the last year and has not had to pay the price in what is the usual strengthening of the Baht.

My personal opinion is this will be recognized by foreign funds this year so expect some strengthening in the Baht this year, but not a lot. Will continue to trade in the 32 to 34 (USD) range this year. This excludes some major internal political development or some major worldwide situation that impacts demand for Thai exports or increases the price of oil.

TH 

15 minutes ago, ubonjoe said:

I can see not problem with entering the US on your Italian airport.

Leave Thailand on your Brazilian passport and enter the US on the Italian passport. Then leave using the Italian passport and enter here on the Brazilian passport.

It is important that the airline check in uses the Italian passport as they will not issue boarding pass if passport presented does not allow entry in USA. Also this is passport data sent to US authorities for checking prior to landing in US.

TH

13 hours ago, Boatman37210 said:

 

According to the lady there was no interview.  They filed papers and in 3 months she got her green card.  Also, no police report required and no medical certificate required.

 

Per USCIS website:

 

Concurrent filing is when an immigrant petition and the adjustment application (application for a green card, Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status) are filed at the same time and mailed together with all the required filing fees and supporting documentation to the same filing location.

 

Concurrent filing is much quicker and easier than consular processing, but can only be done in the US.  Only one agency is involved where there are 3 or 4 agencies for consular processing.  They offer the option of filing in the US, but then deny if your intent does not match your visa.  I am confused as to what visa you are suppose to have in order to take advantage of concurrent filing in the US.  Apparently you either have to have the right intent and then change your mind, which is okay, or do the consular processing.  Does not make sense to me.

 

So far I have found nothing on the USCIS website about coming on a tourist visa with the intent to file for a green card as a reason for denial.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The filing of the I-130 in Bangkok is not a consular filing. You file it with the USCIS office across the street from the Consulate entrance.  Any I-130 filing outside US is going to be across at least two agencies as once I-130 is processed,  paperwork is submitted at and interview is done by state dept at consulate regardless of where I-130 was originally submitted.

I would not recommend entering US on a tourist visa with intent to apply for a green card. That would require you to commit perjury on your on supporting documents for the green card application.

TH 

Check in at the airline counter with Italian passport that does not require US visa. Exit Thai immigration with Brazil passport that you entered Thailand with. Enter US with Italian Passport.  Reverse process when coming back to Thailand.

TH