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Esper

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Posts posted by Esper

  1. Actually, why shouldn't economics be a reason for marriage. You think this is only a feature in third world/first world unions? Women all over the world, Europe and USA included, still look to tick the 'successful' 'solvent' box on their wishlist for prospective partners. History and historical fiction is full of references to wealth as an essential attribute in a husband - read Austen again.

    Why shouldn't Thai women marry to improve their circumstances? The main thing is that they honour their terms of the contract, for a contract it surely is. If in return for security and comfort and 'wealth' they provide farangs with fidelity, loyalty, loving companionship, motherhood, and good sex, isn;t that all that matters? For many farangs, that;s more than what they would get in the west.

  2. The old elite (PAD) trying to hold on to power however its a futile attempt and the real power base is in the north/issan - once the elite realize this and accept their fate, Thailand can move forward. :o

    I'm not sure the 'old elite' will 'realise this and accept their fate' for a long time... their man just got appointed PM today... how did the PAD and their supporters manage this when they are the minority? They vowed to continue hostilities if no 'satisfactory' successor was appointed; is this how they get their way? What message does that send out, for heaven's sake

  3. "Tourism is clearly down.......you don't need statistics to determine that, but it is always good to confirm a statement with statistical data."

    Yet just look at the hotel websites and see how tenaciously they cling onto their high room rates, never mind that their hotels are often half empty or worse

    In August (low season) we visited Phuket and stayed at the Nai Yang Beach Resort for $40 including breakfast for 2; we were one of six guests. A week ago we tried to book again; despite vast cancellations due to airport closure in BKK, the rate remained resolutely at $115, even though we said we wanted to stay for a month. We took up rented accommodation instead; and when we went to visit the hotel, they were only 20% occupied and still sticking to their 'high season' rate.

    I mean, do they understand the law of supply and demand or not?

    Clearly they must have not been reading the news, or else have very deep pockets, because they are building a 30 room annex, to be opened in a few months... is this optimism at its maddest

  4. I've been trying to build a house in Phuket for some time now and everything conspires to frustrate my efforts!

    The land was acquired in 2006 and we are still locked in negotiations to upgrade the site to chanod. After significant slices of undertable money, we are now poised to complete the process in January. Of course we could still build on Norsor3gor, but for some reason the boundary is slightly different - something to do with hand-drawn plan versus satellite surveyed plan, i am told.

    Then, the architect disappeared. So I engaged another through another friend - in BKK. Apparently industry practice in BKK is different from PHuket, where the structural and ME guys have been appointed; the communication between the parties has been poor and both sides are claiming that the other side has not provided the right information. Still working on completing the drawimgs..

    Then, the pound sterling drops 33%. Which means of course the budget must be adjusted accordingly or the footprint must be reduced. This has yet to be done...

    I gave up work to come out to Thailand for one year of construction, but i'm now not sure if i should bother, with the political instability, rising baht... and this is proving not a good time to have given up work!

    I could sell the land but no market at the moment; also, it is a very special piece of land with sea view which would now cost the earth, a nice size (2 rai) 200 m from sea on a hill. Those in the industry say i should build and then sell, but i am having serious thoughts about going through the construction process on my own..

    I could find prospective investors, the land is big enough for more than one property, and two or more households could be company for each other...

    I could defer the project and hope the baht collapses while commodities remain low... but if the reverse happens... i'm screwed..

    Any other options or clever ideas that i haven't considered yet???

  5. While the current political turmoil in Thailand has captivated a global audience, I wonder how many are clear about the issues at stake.

    During the days I was trapped in Bangkok while the airports were under siege, I managed to speak to members from both factions - the anti-government yellowshirts and the pro-Thaksin redshirts - and it was interesting to see the range and differences in opinion, even from those on the same side; and how rumours, half-truths and propaganda had become woven into the threads of the political ideologies that support each campaign.

    We know that the redshirts support Thaksin because of the political reforms he introduced during his regime made signifricant changes to their lives: the 30baht medical scheme and other medical subsidies; making cheap, sometimes interest-free loans available to the farming and poorer communities in the north who were hitherto unable to raise funds through the banks because there were no 'regular income' records; improving the infrastructure in many areas, giving community grants etc etc. These are tangible to them and understandably they are fighting to keep these reforms that might disappear under a different administration.

    The Yellowshirts are basically campaigning against the Thaksin regime because of excessive corruption even for a SEAsian dictator. They claim that Thaksin and his favoured cronies have sold Thailand out - e.g. the telecommumications sell-out to Singapore - and that they are in power only because they have 'bribed' the northerners to vote them into government. They effectively claim that the northerners are 'not mentally fit' to vote, and to this end, they are pushing for electoral reforms to do away with the one-man-one-vote system.

    While there is much to be said for reforms that will do away with corruption, most on-lookers will concede that this will be virtually impossible in a country like Thailand where 'under-table money' has become so much part of the culture (Just this week I was in the Phuket Land Registry and in order to get access to records my lawyer had to provide 'coffee money'to the clerical officer). The next regime will almost certainly end up as corrupt as the one they replace; it really is a question of whose turn it is in the driving seat, and Thaksin's gang have clearly stayed too long.

    The further you go from Bangkok, the issues get more distorted; so in Chaiyapum, the redshirt pro-Thaksin forestry workers there believe: that Thaksin's reforms reduced the number of powerful families from 1,000 to about 50 super-rich - hence much support (and funding) for the anti-Thaksin/government yellowshirts comes from these displaced and disaffected families; that the Queen is showing her support for the yellowshirts because she consulted an oracle that confirmed that the current king is the 9th and last king of this dynasty...

    And in Phuket, largely anti-Thaksin, there are claims that the northerners are simply paid off with tax money raised from the south; whispers that Thaksin has been paying off the Crown Prince's mammoth debts which effectively puts him in his pocket, making him even more of a powerhouse threat should the Crown Prince take the throne... not to mention myriad other conspiracy theories, speculation of republicanism and assassination predictions...

    This country has suffered political and economic upheaval before, and survived; and no doubt they will get through the current ordeal in time. But never have the rifts between communities and cracks in the country's political and social structures seemed so massive. The outside world wonders at the likelihood of Civil War; maybe not to that extent, for the Thais are actually quite peace-loving compared to other races; but here and now, on the eve of the next government formation and at a time when the much-respected King's health is fading, we are truly at the dawn of a new era, and no outcome should be taken for granted.

  6. It is absolutely insane that the baht is so high.

    In the last month, the PM was driven from office (and his government is now sacked), the airports were under siege, there have been clashes between two violatile factions (redshirts and yellowshirts) that threaten to continue, the economy is collapsing, the MNCs are pulling out of BKK, real estate is dead, there are travel warnings against travelling to Thailand, and the country's PR is in tatters; yet the currency continues to sail upwards. (Whereas at around the same time, in the UK a member of the Opposition mentioned that the country will be officially in recession next year, which everybody already knew, and the pound sterling dropped another 10%.)

    The government must be propping up the currency somehow. But for what? Isn't this just the worst time to have a strong baht, when you need to encourage foreign investment, tourism and exports? Especially if these collectively are supposed to make up the majority of the country's GDP

    I was trapped in BKK when the airports were besieged, but managed to get on one of the first flights out of BKK to Phuket on Air Asia. BKK's hotels are reporting terrible occupancy levels at a time when they were expecting to be nearly full. Phuket wasn't even under siege but the effects of the political unrest have made a terrible impact on livelihoods out here. All hotels are laying off staff - the Marriott is said to be making 50% redundant. The beaches are empty at a time when they would be packed, as we approach the peak of high season. Even the massage ladies are undercutting each other. Many small businesses will go under, those small fragile ones that were looking for that break in life.

    There is a strangled air of desperation about. I feel for the people, smiling and saying that within a few months all will be back to normal. But when the baht is so high against western currencies? Most farangs already based here in fact are talking about selling up and moving, because their income has been decimated -more defection of capital...

    The Thai authorities really need to rethink their fiscal strategy...

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