NamKangMan

From the Pattaya Forum:

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1068949-where-have-all-the-chinese-gone-thai-media-say-tat-in-denial-about-tourism-numbers-in-pattaya/

"Some claimed Chinese visitors were down 60%."

"They said that increasing numbers of Chinese were now known as "FIT" travelers - that is to say they are organizing their own trips and are thus difficult to quantify."

"Thus difficult to quantify." - yeah, they are still working out how they "quantify" them, but at least the the Pattaya branch of the TAT admitted it was difficult to "quantify" them.

I would suggest, where they stay, what they eat, where they eat, what they buy, and how much they spend, is also "difficult to quantify."  ????

4 hours ago, Tchooptip said:

Due to one member's comment, I first wrongly understood there were 50 people aboard this boat, now I know it was 101 people, it changes everything. 

Yes, it doubled the chance of sinking. 

4 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Never seen that law stated anywhere maybe you live in the Phuket or Pattaya state. ????

Yes, I live in "The Democratic People's Republic of Phuket." 

It really is a separate "state" to Thailand.  We haven't even got metered taxis here.  ????

11 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

Go to Macau for mega wealthy.

I've been to Macau.  With no casinos, I don't see Thailand as being in competition with Macau for the wealthy Chinese, however, I do see Vietnam as being in direct competition with Thailand, and not just for gambling revenue.

I visa run regularly to Ho Chi Minh City.

I have seen a lot of Chinese with some serious money at this place, a few times.  

http://www.thegrandhotram.com/casino/

When in Ho Chi Minh City, I see them shopping, and it's not for dried fruit and seaweed from a supermarket.  ????

7 hours ago, oilinki said:

Farang mai luu.. or Ang Mo don't know.. ????

 

These were real, full scale showers, not small ones to wash one's feet before prayer. 

 

If I need to do another border run to KLIA2, I'll keep being as ignorant as ever and take a shower prior flight ????

 

oilinki, you are correct.  There are showers there.

I went to the Malaysian F1 last year.  I can confirm there are small separate showers cubicles in the toilet blocks in KLIA2 Airport.

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Stop being so sensitive and calm down, I didn't say you weren't able to spot FIT's _ I don't visit Vietnam and I don't visit casino's so I can't comment on those things.

 

The sole point I'm trying to make here is that FIT's are in abundance, mostly we don't see them because few of us spend our time looking for them or nor visit the hotels where they stay and go looking for them. Yes, I am certain that Phuket gets its fair share of Chinese FIT's but it becomes pantomime like if you and I try to argue that point, we don't agree, it's as simple as that. You appear not to believe what I have said on the subject but I'm not offended, you will realise the truth of it at some point in some way, in the meantime I suggest we bring this exchange to a close because it's becoming banal.

I am not being sensitive, and I am calm.  It's just a bit of internet banter, so no need to cease the discussion.

It's clear to me you have nothing to compare Chinese FITS on Phuket to, except for your wife's account, and that was 2 years ago in Chiang Mai, and I mean no offense by this.

Has it occurred to you that the TAT is falsely classifying a percentage of Chinese as FITS, to suit their own agenda, when in reality, they are not as wealthy as the TAT would like readers to believe?

Once again, we don't even know the TAT's criteria for classifying them, so you, and I, and others, are classifying them as per our own observations. 

I have seen wealthy Chinese in Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City, but not what I would call the mega wealthy Chinese, and what the TAT would like readers to believe are Chinese FITS, does not correspond with my observations, and what would be my definition of what Chinese FITS are, in neighboring countries.  

What if the TAT made a press release saying your average Chinese FIT typically spends $10,000USD a day.  Surely you would disagree.  

What if the TAT made a press release saying your average Chinese FIT typically spends 10,000 baht a day.  Definitely possible, and acceptable.

However, without the TAT telling the public their criteria for classification, all I know is what I observe here, and I DO NOT observe "the spend" by the Chinese like I see in nearby countries, every few months.

Maybe one county's wealthy Chinese FIT is another country's cheap Charlie FIT.  We need to know the TAT's criteria before WE can agree, or disagree, with their classification, and then we can digress to discuss the amount of them that we see here. 

The OP really is just more "smoke and mirrors" by the TAT. 

3 hours ago, MARK74 said:

 Are you sure about that? so all the ex cons who have released books etc have their money confiscated? which countries? I find that hard to believe.

 

This is the most relevant case I could find on a quick Google.  Australian, in a Bali jail, later released.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-29/could-schapelle-corby-make-a-profit-from-drug-smuggling/8569504

Extract:

7 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

"The Chinese are the majority of tourists here now, and they DO NOT SPEND MONEY like the previous demographic of tourists, the westerners, did".

 

Absolutely untrue...I didn't read the rest of what you wrote because it didn't seem that relevant.

 

My wife used to work for Chedi Chiang Mai, later this became Anantara, she was there for around six years and we still have close friends who continue to work there. At any point in time the guest mix was typically over 70% Chinese, often it was much higher and rooms there sold for up to 20k a night, even the bottom end room rates were over 5k Baht (data as of up to two years ago). In previous threads some years ago on this subject I relayed stories of where Chinese guests would buy 200/300k Baht of goods in the Boutique Shop at the hotel and have the hotel ship everything back to the guests home in China...these are the FITS, admittedly the top end but there are many many such hotels in Chiang Mai where that scenario is repeated. Everyone spots the tour groups, very few Westerners are able to spot the FITS, to say they don't spend money is naive and in light of the statistics and first-hand stories, very silly.

And you think "the FIT's" are plentiful on Phuket?  Give me a break.

I frequently visa run to Vietnam, where there are casinos.  In Ho Chi Minh City I see the wealthy Chinese.  I don't gamble, but have visited The Grand Ho Tram Strip a few times.  I know how to spot a wealthy Chinese, so don't say I am unable to spot them. 

When's the last time you have seen them in a casino in the region, or in the main commercial area of a capital city????

The Chinese on Phuket are no where near what other countries are getting by way of wealthy Chinese.

Why would a wealthy Chinese come here?  Look at the infrastructure, the disorganization, the lack of safety standards, the roads, litter, and poor beach water quality etc etc.

I haven't been to Chiang Mai for a while.  Even if what you say is true, and by your own admission, "these are the FITS, admittedly the top end" so now you are cutting the percentage of FITS from "top end" and "lower end" FITS, and that after the FITS percentage has already been cut out of Chinese "tour groups" by the TAT with a formula they will not reveal. 

So, just what percentage of "high end" FITS do you think Phuket is getting?  Don't answer, because for the above reason none of us can ever know. 

All I know is what I see here, and in Vietnam, and Phuket must be getting the "cheap Charlie FITS" if any FITS at all.    ????

4 hours ago, Katia said:

There's nothing wrong with a separate ID as well, but I'd be irked if told I had to get both.

You don't have a choice. 

At Thai law, a Thai must carry their ID Card, and drivers license, if driving.

Foreigners must carry their passport, and drivers license, if driving.

I would rather end this risk by the Government issuing ID Cards to foreigners, and then I would carry both, like the Thai's do. 

Most of us carry a few ATM cards, once more card is no problem.

2 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

If your long term and live here you should already know to carry a passport copy.

I have always done so and now have a passport copy on my mobile phone as well.

My Thai DL's don't have my passport number only my Thai ID number that is registered at my province head office.

 

The main problem as always as I see it is the ignorants of law and requirements of mainly police but also other officials who don't like the idea of a foreigner knowing more than they do.

 

 

"If your long term and live here you should already know to carry a passport copy." - NO.

If your long term and live here you should already know it is Thai law that a foreigner MUST carry their passport AT ALL TIMES. 

Practically NONE of us do that, but that is the Thai law. 

You get someone in authority having a bad day, or trying to extort some money, and you are in trouble.  The law DOES NOT state a photocopy is fine. 

What the Thai laws states, and what most, if not all foreigners are doing, are two different things, and the Thai's like it that way, so foreigners can be manipulated, should they need them to be. 

The toilets may be clean, but shame that the beaches where they pump the toilet water to isn't just as clean. 

17 hours ago, Derek B said:

FIT groups (Free and Independent Travellers)........................that's the way to go.

Without safety on the water - or over it in the case of the Aussie who free fell 70m from a speed boat parasail - some Thai locations are bound to suffer for sure. Same as coach accidents in main land China.

Down 15% at the time of publishing, probably a further drop since then.

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/15-of-phukets-advanced-bookings-cancelled

On 11/19/2018 at 5:34 PM, simoh1490 said:

Like the average Thai is concerned or even thinks about whether the Chinese customer is a package tour member or a FIT, nor how TATA calculates those entities, laughable.

 

It's not clear why you've gone off on a tangent about Thai GDP but here's a piece which may help you:

 

  "For the entire year, KResearch expects the ratio of household debt to GDP may fall to somewhere between 76.5-77.5 percent (median rate – 77.0 percent), against the 78.0-percent ratio recorded in 2017, mainly due to the higher growth of nominal GDP than the growth of the outstanding household debt". https://kasikornresearch.com/en/analysis/k-econ/economy/Pages/y3750.aspx

 

 

"Like the average Thai is concerned or even thinks about whether the Chinese customer is a package tour member or a FIT" - I agree.  They don't care if the customers are Chinese, Russian, Western, Martian, Pink, Blue, Purple - as long as they SPEND MONEY which creates employment so they, "Somchai" and "Noi" can earn a salary and pay their bills / debt, and raise their kids and / or support their parents.

The Chinese are the majority of tourists here now, and they DO NOT SPEND MONEY like the previous demographic of tourists, the westerners, did.

Your link is a Kasikorn "projection."  It may or may not happen.  Let's say their projection takes place, if you look at the below link you will see Thailand's household debt is still at record levels, even IF Kasikorn's projected decrease materializes. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/households-debt-to-gdp

The employment figure I linked to previously doesn't even take into account all the "illegitimate" employment the tourism industry provides in Thailand, and all the employment that is "off the books."  See all those empty bars on Bangla, Thai girls used to earn a salary by working in them.  Do you think those girls are working in a Chinese bar somewhere?

Here's an easy example for you.  Let's say a bar / restaurant / guest house, for westerners, employs 10 Thai staff.  Cooks, cleaners, waitresses, cashier etc.  That establishment closes down as the western market dries up here, and also because the establishment does not appeal to Chinese tourists, who may have no intention of trying a Sunday roast, for example.  The staff are now unemployed, but still have bills to pay. 

Now, there are restaurants appealing to the Chinese, but as we know, many of them eat instant noodles from 7/11, or buy something to eat at a supermarket.  For the staff that did work in the hospitality sector, not all of them can now go and work in the retail sector.

So what becomes of these unemployed hospitality staff?  What do they do? 

In relation to Phuket, rather than improving the island, and luring back the diverse and multicultural western market, they put all their eggs into the Chinese basket.  Crazy.

Look at the below link for how many Thai's are turning to loan sharks to survive.  (2016)

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/53291-household-debts-hit-highest-8-years-filling-pockets-thai-loan-sharks.html

I can not see one Thai female in the photos.

Perhaps, scamming Chinese tourists is an occupation reserved for Thai males only.   ????

3 hours ago, MARK74 said:

Considering he only had 3 months left of a one year sentence i think it was pretty stupid to do a runner.

Doubt he's in Thailand if he's checked in here.

Wherever he is, he's there illegally and will end up in jail again for longer and may well get deported back to Bali if he isn't already there to serve an extended sentence.

He'll be back in jail for a lot longer than 3 months soon enough i reckon.

The only thing that he could gain out of it is when he is eventually freed, he may make some cash from selling the story.

His choices, his crime was hardly the crime of the century so up to him I guess.

"he may make some cash from selling the story." - which is now deemed to be the proceeds of crime and can be confiscated. 

4 hours ago, marcho said:

 

He is probably using a good VPN too

Not going to help if he is in a country in "the 14 eyes."

https://thebestvpn.com/5-9-14-eyes-countries/

https://www.my-private-network.co.uk/vpn-provider-14-eyes-country-something-know/

Even The Tor Project does not offer 100% anonymity.  No encryption between the user and the first node, and the last node and the receiver.  (node = onion)

3 hours ago, The Deerhunter said:

Exactly. It seems that two sides of this conversation always dominate these posts. Quotes from TAT telling us that there's more tourists every year and quotes from the negative Thai Visa posters saying the tourists have all gone away.  I think I will avoid looking at any more threads on this subject.  My personal take is that the Chinese tourism market must slowly mature and the sheep who follow the flag are on their first trip out of China.  After that experience and seeing the real world, on their next time many will want to do it differently. Wouldn't you?

You are focusing on TAT's arrival numbers, as they hoped you would do.  I agree, tourist numbers are up. 

The "conversation" is about whether the corresponding "spend" that is, revenue generated from the current tourist market, matches their big numbers. 

I suggest these big numbers of Chinese are not spending as much as the TAT would like to have readers believe, not because I simply don't believe the TAT, but I simply don't see Chinese tourists spending a lot of money here, plus, my observations of many businesses that are quiet, or have ceased trading here. 

Once again, I will not go into the "zero baht tourists" issue, which would see profits from those Chinese who do spend, repatriated back to China, so Thailand sees very little out of the cheap Chinese travelers, and also the more wealthy Chinese travelers. 

"on their next time many will want to do it differently" - What makes you think the cheaper Chinese tourists will have the financial resources to return to Phuket as independent tourists, and what makes you think a wealthy Chinese tourists will return to Phuket at all?

10 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

This isn't the UK where everyone has to prove their answers, 99.9% of the population wouldn't know and doesn't care, why should they show their calculations just to satisfy a handful of farangs on the likes of TVF. 

"why should they show their calculations" - I asked for how they classify or distinguish a Chinese "FIT group" from a Chinese "tour group."  An answer they do not supply, therefore an answer which we will never know. 

"99.9% of the population wouldn't know and doesn't care" - really????

You want some calculations, have a look at these.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

"

"The Phoenix was among several boats that appeared to have ignored a warning in place since Wednesday not to take tourists on daytrips to the islands off Phuket because of "strong winds and storms", officials said.

An investigation has been ordered into why a number of boats went out despite the severe weather warnings.""

Yes, that was the official story after the fact. However there was no weather warning, only the following day did they issue one.

"However there was no weather warning," - if this was the case, there would appear to be no need for an alleged argument between the Chinese owner, and I assume, a Thai captain.  

Even if an argument took place for other reasons, perhaps overloading, it is still the captain's responsibility NOT TO set to sea, yet you say the the "wrongdoer" is the Chinese guy. 

In any case, wasn't the official owner of the company a Thai women? 

Seems like they do not blame the Thai captain.  Do not blame the Thai company owner.  So the blame must lay with the Chinese investor.  

Confidence in safety here is one thing, but if they chase a Chinese scapegoat, confidence in Chinese investment may disappear, followed shortly after by the Chinese tourists. 

5 hours ago, bluesofa said:

I'm guessing this is the usual case of altering any awkward details in the report, before being released.

 

It sounds great, but there's an awfully big difference between 'boosted' on paper, and 'continually enforced' in reality.

"I'm guessing this is the usual case of altering any awkward details in the report, before being released." - or, having the first salvage crew, who were Thai, remove / repair any evidence before the salvage. 

Due to the transport "situation" on Phuket, EVERYONE needs access to a vehicle here, or you are at the mercy of the transport mafia.  Hence, Phuket Province has the highest road deaths in Thailand, and Thailand is near the top of the list for road deaths in the world, thus, Phuket has has some of the most dangerous roads in the world, if not the most dangerous.

For the above reason, the many motorbike hire shops exist here due to such a high demand by tourists. 

If Phuket had proper public transport, the demand to hire a motorbike would go down, way down, and authorities would not need to worry about the supply side from the shops. 

7 hours ago, Katia said:

Isn't that what the driver's license is for?  It even has your passport number on it.

No.  A driver's license is a license for driving / riding on the roads in Thailand.  As mentioned, the passport number on your license may not be the passport number of your current passport.

All Thai's have an ID Card, but not all Thai's have a driver's license.

Not all long term foreign stayers drive / ride, particularly the elderly, so why not make an ID Card for long term foreign stayers, and make them pay for it? 

It could have the expiry date of your passport, thus, would need to be renewed when you get new passport, so, a lost / stolen passport aside, it would always have the current passport number of the foreigner, so a quick radio call verifies the foreigner also has a valid visa. 

Once again, they could make money out of it, but they don't like giving foreigners similar rights to Thai's here. 

5 hours ago, xylophone said:

And if they don't have one they shouldn't be allowed to hire a bike......simple as that. Why on earth would you consider it safe to let untrained idiots drive on roads when they come on holiday?

 

Can't do it in their own countries but can practise here and poss kill or maim someone.....absolute madness.

"And if they don't have one they shouldn't be allowed to hire a bike.." - I agree.  Trouble is, with the transport "situation" on Phuket, those who can not hire a motorbike, due to not being licensed, which may not necessarily mean that they can't ride a motorbike, may not come to Phuket at all. 

200 baht a day to hire a motorbike for 24 hours, versus 200 baht just to get into a tuk-tuk. 

7 hours ago, jethro69 said:

In fact I was given back the national license all the times without any checking. They had only looked at the international one, and it didn't appear that police was knowing what to check.

More interesting would be if you covered insurance-wise without a Thai DL?

"More interesting would be if you covered insurance-wise without a Thai DL?" - you are covered because you are riding here legally, as in, you are licensed, under the convention.

Now, if you are speeding, drunk, no helmet, negligent etc, that may see your insurance void. 

6 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Why should they state how they classify groups, or, maybe they do and we just don't see it, assuming it's fictitious or false is a step too far for me - as said above, Thailand operates tour group visa's, presumably China does also..

"Why should they state how they classify groups" - the question is, why shouldn't they?  After all, they are the ones making the press release.